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Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue Shear

Modeling the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies poses a challenge to weak lensing analyses. The Dark Energy Survey is expected to be less impacted by IA when limited to blue, star-forming galaxies. The cosmological parameter constraints from this blue cosmic shear sample are stable to IA model choice, unlike passive galaxies in the full DES Y3 sample, the goodness-of-fit is improved and the $\Omega_{m}$ and $S_8$ better agree with the cosmic microwave background. Mitigating IA with sample selection, instead of flexible model choices, can reduce uncertainty in $S_8$ by a factor of 1.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Power of DESI for Photometric Redshift Calibration: A Case Study with KiDS-1000

Accurate redshift estimates are a critical requirement for weak lensing surveys and one of the main uncertainties in constraints on dark energy and large-scale cosmic structure. In this paper, we study the potential to calibrate photometric redshift (photo-z) distributions for gravitational lensing using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Since beginning its science operations in 2021, DESI has collected more than 50 million redshifts, adding about one million monthly. In addition to its large-scale structure samples, DESI has also acquired over 256k high-quality spectroscopic redshifts (spec-zs) in the COSMOS and XMM and VVDS fields. This is already a factor of 3 larger than previous spec-z calibration compilations in these two regions. Here, we explore calibrating photo-zs for the subset of KiDS-1000 galaxies that fall into joint self-organizing map (SOM) cells overlapping the DESI COSMOS footprint using the DESI COSMOS observations. Estimating the redshift distribution in KiDS-1000 with the new DESI data, we find broad consistency with previously published results while also detecting differences in the mean redshift in some tomographic bins with an average shifts of Delta Mean(z) = -0.028 in the mean and Delta Median(z) = +0.011 in the median across tomographic bins. However, we also find that incompleteness per SOM cell, i.e., groups of galaxies with similar colors and magnitudes, can modify n(z) distributions. Finally, we comment on the fact that larger photometric catalogs, aligned with the DESI COSMOS and DESI XMM and VVDS footprints, would be needed to fully exploit the DESI dataset and would extend the coverage to nearly eight times the area of existing 9-band photometry.

Blanco, Diana [UC, Santa Cruz; UC, Santa Cruz, Ins↗

Cosmological constraints from the Planck cluster catalogue with DES shear profiles and Chandra observations

We present cosmological constraints from the Planck PSZ2 cosmological cluster sample, using weak-lensing shear profiles from Dark Energy Survey (DES) data and X-ray observations from the Chandra telescope for the mass calibration. We compute hydrostatic mass estimates for all clusters in the PSZ2 sample with a scaling relation between their Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal and X-ray derived hydrostatic mass, calibrated with the Chandra data. We introduce a method to correct these masses with a hydrostatic mass bias using shear profiles from wide-field galaxy surveys. We simultaneously fit the number counts of the PSZ2 sample and the mass calibration with the DES data, finding $Ω_\text{m}=0.312^{+0.018}_{-0.024}$, $σ_8=0.777\pm 0.024$, $S_8\equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\text{m} / 0.3}=0.791^{+0.023}_{-0.021}$, and $(1-b)=0.844^{+0.055}_{-0.062}$ for our baseline analysis when combined with BAO data. When considering a hydrostatic mass bias evolving with mass, we find $Ω_\text{m}=0.353^{+0.025}_{-0.031}$, $σ_8=0.751\pm 0.023$, and $S_8=0.814^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We verify the robustness of our results by exploring a variety of analysis settings, with a particular focus on the definition of the halo centre used for the extraction of shear profiles. We compare our results with a number of other analyses, in particular two recent analyses of cluster samples obtained from SPT and eROSITA data that share the same mass calibration data set. We find that our results are in overall agreement with most late-time probes, in very mild tension with CMB results (1.6$σ$), and in significant tension with results from eROSITA clusters (2.9$σ$). We confirm that our mass calibration is consistent with the eROSITA analysis by comparing masses for clusters present in both Planck and eROSITA samples, eliminating it as a potential cause of tension.

Aymerich, G. [Orsay, IAS; AIM, Saclay] (ORCID:0009↗

Improving Dark Energy Constraints Using Low-Redshift Large-Scale Structures

The primary goal of this project was to improve constraints on dark energy measurements by improving our ability to extract cosmological information from low redshift large-scale structures. PI Clowe's project's primary aim was to reduce the bias in measurements of the masses of clusters of galaxies to a level where the evolution of the cluster mass function can be used in the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration survey to improve the accuracy of the measurement of dark energy and other cosmological parameters. Co-PI Seo's project studied observational systematics affecting large-scale clustering of galaxies, which will be used to improve dark energy constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The cluster lensing project employed a series of simulations and observations of clusters of galaxies to test numerous potential systematic errors in cluster mass measurements using weak gravitational lensing as the accuracy of current weak lensing measurements are more than order of magnitude worse than what is required to use clusters of galaxies for accurate determination of dark energy parameters. PI Clowe and group developed and analyzed simulations to test for, and correct biases introduced in, the weak lensing measurement process. Finally, PI Clowe and group developed a method of detecting clusters using galaxy overdensities and applied the method to the BLISS and DES surveys. The success of spectroscopic dark energy mission such as the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will depend on a thorough understanding of various observational systematics in the target density fluctuations that would give rise to spurious, non-cosmological signals. PI Seo and group developed a deep learning, artificial neural network (ANN) technique that modeled and mitigated such effects, aimed at deriving more robust galaxy clustering signals not only for the baryon acoustic oscillation feature and redshift-space distortions but also for primordial non-Gaussianity constraint.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The intrinsic alignment of red galaxies in DES Y1 redMaPPer galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT Clusters of galaxies trace the most non-linear peaks in the cosmic density field. The weak gravitational lensing of background galaxies by clusters can allow us to infer their masses. However, galaxies associated with the local environment of the cluster can also be intrinsically aligned due to the local tidal gradient, contaminating any cosmology derived from the lensing signal. We measure this intrinsic alignment in Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 redMaPPer clusters. We find evidence of a non-zero mean radial alignment of galaxies within clusters between redshifts 0.1–0.7. We find a significant systematic in the measured ellipticities of cluster satellite galaxies that we attribute to the central galaxy flux and other intracluster light. We attempt to correct this signal, and fit a simple model for intrinsic alignment amplitude (AIA) to the measurement, finding AIA = 0.15 ± 0.04, when excluding data near the edge of the cluster. We find a significantly stronger alignment of the central galaxy with the cluster dark matter halo at low redshift and with higher richness and central galaxy absolute magnitude (proxies for cluster mass). This is an important demonstration of the ability of large photometric data sets like DES to provide direct constraints on the intrinsic alignment of galaxies within clusters. These measurements can inform improvements to small-scale modelling and simulation of the intrinsic alignment of galaxies to help improve the separation of the intrinsic alignment signal in weak lensing studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gravitational Lensing Formalism in a Curved Arc Basis: A Continuous Description of Observables and Degeneracies from the Weak to the Strong Lensing Regime

Gravitationally lensed curved arcs provide a wealth of information about the underlying lensing distortions. Extracting precise lensing information from extended sources is a key component in many studies aiming to answer fundamental questions about the universe. To maintain accuracy with increased precision, it is of vital importance to characterize and understand the impact of degeneracies inherent in lensing observables. In this work, we present a formalism to describe the gravitational lensing distortion effects resulting in curved extended arcs based on the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the local lensing Jacobian and their directional differentials. We identify a nonlocal and nonlinear extended deflector basis that inherits these local properties. Our parameterization is tightly linked to observable features in extended sources and allows one to accurately extract the lensing information of extended images without imposing an explicit global deflector model. We quantify what degeneracies can be broken based on specific assumptions about the local lensing nature and assumed intrinsic source shape. Our formalism is applicable from the weak linear regime to the semi-linear regime and all the way up to the highly nonlinear regime of highly magnified arcs of multiple images. Furthermore, the methodology and implementation presented in this work provides a framework to assessing systematics, to guide inference efforts in the right choices in complexity based on the data at hand, and to quantify the lensing information extracted in a model-independent way

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulating image coaddition with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – I. Simulation methodology and general results

The upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will carry out a wide-area survey in the near-infrared. A key science objective is the measurement of cosmic structure via weak gravitational lensing. Roman data will be undersampled, which introduces new challenges in the measurement of source galaxy shapes; a potential solution is to use linear algebra-based coaddition techniques such as imcom that combine multiple undersampled images to produce a single oversampled output mosaic with a desired ‘target’ point spread function (PSF). We present here an initial application of imcom to 0.64 square degrees of simulated Roman data, based on the Roman branch of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) simulation. We show that imcom runs successfully on simulated data that includes features such as plate scale distortions, chip gaps, detector defects, and cosmic ray masks. We simultaneously propagate grids of injected sources and simulated noise fields as well as the full simulation. We quantify the residual deviations of the PSF from the target (the ‘leakage’), as well as noise properties of the output images; we discuss how the overall tiling pattern as well as Moiré patterns appear in the final leakage and noise maps. We include appendices on interpolation algorithms and the interaction of undersampling with image processing operations that may be of broader applicability. The companion paper (‘Paper II’) explores the implications for weak lensing analyses.

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Deep-field analytical calibration

The next generation of imaging surveys, including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, will provide unprecedented constraints on cosmology using weak gravitational lensing. To fully exploit this statistical power, shear measurement methods must achieve sub- per cent accuracy while mitigating systematic biases from noise, the point-spread function (PSF), blending, and shear-dependent detection. The analytical calibration framework (AnaCal) has demonstrated such accuracy but requires adding noise to images, reducing effective depth. We introduce Deep-Field Analytical Calibration (DEEP-FIELD AnaCal), an extension of AnaCal that uses deep-field images to compute shear responses while preserving the statistical power of wide-field data. We validate DEEP-FIELD AnaCal on isolated and blended galaxy image simulations with LSST-like conditions, finding it meets the stringent requirement of multiplicative bias $|m| < 3\times 10^{-3}$ at 99.7 per cent confidence. Compared to standard AnaCal applied to wide-field images, DEEP-FIELD AnaCal increases the effective galaxy number density from 17 to 30 arcmin$^{-2}$ for simulated 10-yr LSST data. With deep fields $10\times$ longer than the wide field, we find pixel noise variance in shear estimation is reduced by 30 per cent and overall uncertainty by $\sim 25~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. Finally, using the LSST Deep Drilling Fields strategy, we assess sample variance and find an equivalent calibration uncertainty of $\lesssim 0.3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. These results demonstrate that DEEP-FIELD AnaCal offers a promising path to achieve the required shear calibration for upcoming weak lensing surveys.

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Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

Emas, N. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercompu↗

The dark matter halo masses of elliptical galaxies as a function of observationally robust quantities

Context. The assembly history of the stellar component of a massive elliptical galaxy is closely related to that of its dark matter halo. Measuring how the properties of galaxies correlate with their halo mass can therefore help to understand their evolution. Aims. We investigate how the dark matter halo mass of elliptical galaxies varies as a function of their properties, using weak gravitational lensing observations. To minimise the chances of biases, we focus on the following galaxy properties that can be determined robustly: the surface brightness profile and the colour. Methods. We selected 2409 central massive elliptical galaxies (log M*/M ⊙ ≳ 11.4) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic sample. We first measured their surface brightness profile and colours by fitting Sérsic models to photometric data from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). We fitted their halo mass distribution as a function of redshift, rest-frame r-band luminosity, half-light radius, and rest-frame u - g colour, using KiDS weak lensing measurements and a Bayesian hierarchical approach. For the sake of robustness with respect to assumptions on the large-radii behaviour of the surface brightness, we repeated the analysis replacing the total luminosity and half-light radius with the luminosity within a 10 kpc aperture, L r, 10 , and the light-weighted surface brightness slope, Γ 10 . Results. We did not detect any correlation between the halo mass and either the half-light radius or colour at fixed redshift and luminosity. Using the robust surface brightness parameterisation, we found that the halo mass correlates weakly with L r,10 and anti-correlates with Γ 10 . At fixed redshift, L r, 10 and Γ 10 , the difference in the average halo mass between galaxies at the 84th percentile and 16th percentile of the colour distribution is 0.00 ± 0.11 dex. Conclusion. Our results indicate that the average star formation efficiency of massive elliptical galaxies has little dependence on their final size or colour. This suggests that the origin of the diversity in the size and colour distribution of these objects lies with properties other than the halo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geometry versus growth: Internal consistency of the flat ΛCDM model with KiDS-1000

Here, we carry out a multi-probe self-consistency test of the flat Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model with the aim of exploring potential causes of the reported tensions between high- and low-redshift cosmological observations. We divide the model into two theory regimes determined by the smooth background (geometry) and the evolution of matter density fluctuations (growth), each governed by an independent set of ΛCDM cosmological parameters. This extended model is constrained by a combination of weak gravitational lensing measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey, galaxy clustering signatures extracted from Sloan Digital Sky Survey campaigns and the Six-Degree Field Galaxy Survey, and the angular baryon acoustic scale and the primordial scalar fluctuation power spectrum measured in Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. For both the weak lensing data set individually and the combined probes, we find strong consistency between the geometry and growth parameters, as well as with the posterior of standard ΛCDM analysis. In the non-split analysis, for which one single set of parameters was used, tension in the amplitude of matter density fluctuations as measured by the parameter S 8 persists at around 3σ, with a 1.5% constraint of S 8 = 0.776$_{–0.008}^{+0.016}$ for the combined probes. We also observe a less significant preference (at least 2σ) for higher values of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 70.5$_{–1.5}^{+0.7}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , as well as for lower values of the total matter density parameter Ω m = 0.289$_{–0.005}^{+0.007}$ compared to the full Planck analysis. Including the subset of the CMB information in the probe combination enhances these differences rather than alleviate them, which we link to the discrepancy between low and high multipoles in Planck data. Our geometry versus growth analysis does not yet yield clear signs regarding whether the origin of the discrepancies lies in ΛCDM structure growth or expansion history but holds promise as an insightful test for forthcoming, more powerful data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct Measurement of Galaxy Assembly Bias using DESI DR1 Data

We report the first direct measurement of galaxy assembly bias, a critical systematic in cosmology, from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Survey. We introduce a novel, cosmology-independent method to measure the halo occupation distribution (HOD) by combining a state-of-the-art group catalog with weak gravitational lensing. For groups binned by total luminosity, we determine the galaxy occupation number $N_{\rm gal}$ from group-galaxy cross-correlations, while weak lensing constrains the average halo mass $M_h$. Applying this to a volume-limited sample at $z{\in}[0.05,0.2]$, we measure the dependence of HOD, $N_{\rm gal}(M_h)$, on large-scale overdensity $δ_{g}$. Focusing on the satellite galaxies, we find an assembly bias parameter of $Q_{\rm sat}{=}0.05{\pm}0.14$, a result consistent with zero and in tension with many empirical galaxy formation models. Our method provides a robust approach for characterizing galaxy assembly bias to achieve precision cosmology with DESI and future Stage-V surveys.

Shao, Zhiwei [Shanghai Jiaotong U.; Shanghai Jiao ↗

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

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Estimating redshift distributions using hierarchical logistic Gaussian processes

ABSTRACT This work uses hierarchical logistic Gaussian processes to infer true redshift distributions of samples of galaxies, through their cross-correlations with spatially overlapping spectroscopic samples. We demonstrate that this method can accurately estimate these redshift distributions in a fully Bayesian manner jointly with galaxy-dark matter bias models. We forecast how systematic biases in the redshift-dependent galaxy-dark matter bias model affect redshift inference. Using published galaxy-dark matter bias measurements from the Illustris simulation, we compare these systematic biases with the statistical error budget from a forecasted weak gravitational lensing measurement. If the redshift-dependent galaxy-dark matter bias model is mis-specified, redshift inference can be biased. This can propagate into relative biases in the weak lensing convergence power spectrum on the 10–30 per cent level. We, therefore, showcase a methodology to detect these sources of error using Bayesian model selection techniques. Furthermore, we discuss the improvements that can be gained from incorporating prior information from Bayesian template fitting into the model, both in redshift prediction accuracy and in the detection of systematic modelling biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How accurately can we detect the splashback radius of dark matter haloes and its correlation with accretion rate?

ABSTRACT The splashback radius (Rsp) of dark matter haloes has recently been detected using weak gravitational lensing and cross-correlations with galaxies. However, different methods have been used to measure Rsp and to assess the significance of its detection. In this paper, we use simulations to study the precision and accuracy to which we can detect the splashback radius with 3D density, 3D subhalo, and weak lensing profiles. We study how well various methods and tracers recover Rsp by comparing it with the value measured directly from particle dynamics. We show that estimates of Rsp from density and subhalo profiles correspond to different percentiles of the underlying Rsp distribution of particle orbits. At low accretion rates, a second caustic appears and can bias results. Finally, we show that upcoming lensing surveys may be able to constrain the Rsp–Γdyn relation directly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Brighter-fatter Effect in Near-infrared Detectors—III. Fourier-domain Treatment of Flat Field Correlations and Application to WFIRST

Weak gravitational lensing has emerged as a leading probe of the growth of cosmic structure. However, the shear signal is very small and accurate measurement depends critically on our ability to understand how non-ideal instrumental effects affect astronomical images. The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will fly a focal plane containing 18 Teledyne H4RG-10 near-infrared detector arrays, which present different instrument calibration challenges from previous weak lensing observations. Previous work [Paper I: Hirata & Choi, PASP, 132, 014501 (2020); and Paper II: Choi & Hirata, PASP, 132, 014502 (2020)] has shown that correlation functions of flat field images, including cross-correlations between different time slices that are enabled by the non-destructive read capability of the infrared detectors, are effective tools for disentangling linear and nonlinear inter-pixel capacitance (IPC) and the brighter-fatter effect (BFE). Here we present a Fourier-domain treatment of the flat field correlations, which allows us to expand the previous formalism to all orders in IPC, BFE, and classical nonlinearity. We show that biases in simulated flat field analyses in Paper I are greatly reduced through the use of this formalism. We then apply this updated formalism to flat field data from three WFIRST flight candidate detectors, and explore the robustness to variations in the analysis. We find that the BFE is present in all three detectors, and that its contribution to the flat field correlations dominates over the nonlinear IPC, in accordance with the results from Paper II on a development detector. The magnitude of the BFE is such that the effective area of a pixel is increased by (3.54 ± 0.03) × 10 -7 for every electron deposited in a neighboring pixel (sensor chip assembly [SCA] 20829, statistical error, not IPC-deconvolved). We compare IPC maps from flat field autocorrelation measurements to those obtained from the single pixel reset method and find a median difference of 0.113% for SCA 20829. After further diagnosis of this difference, we ascribe it largely to an additional source of cross-talk, the vertical trailing pixel effect, and recommend further work to develop a model for this effect. These results represent a significant step toward calibration of the non-ideal effects in WFIRST detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Noise from undetected sources in Dark Energy Survey images

ABSTRACT For ground-based optical imaging with current CCD technology, the Poisson fluctuations in source and sky background photon arrivals dominate the noise budget and are readily estimated. Another component of noise, however, is the signal from the undetected population of stars and galaxies. Using injection of artifical galaxies into images, we demonstrate that the measured variance of galaxy moments (used for weak gravitational lensing measurements) in Dark Energy Survey (DES) images is significantly in excess of the Poisson predictions, by up to 30 per cent, and that the background sky levels are overestimated by current software. By cross-correlating distinct images of ‘empty’ sky regions, we establish that there is a significant image noise contribution from undetected static sources (US), which, on average, are mildly resolved at DES resolution. Treating these US as a stationary noise source, we compute a correction to the moment covariance matrix expected from Poisson noise. The corrected covariance matrix matches the moment variances measured on the injected DES images to within 5 per cent. Thus, we have an empirical method to statistically account for US in weak lensing measurements, rather than requiring extremely deep sky simulations. We also find that local sky determinations can remove most of the bias in flux measurements, at a small penalty in additional, but quantifiable, noise.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

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