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At least 415 records · Page 23

Inpainting radar missing data regions with deep learning

Abstract. Missing and low-quality data regions are a frequent problem for weather radars. They stem from a variety of sources: beam blockage, instrument failure, near-ground blind zones, and many others. Filling in missing data regions is often useful for estimating local atmospheric properties and the application of high-level data processing schemes without the need for preprocessing and error-handling steps – feature detection and tracking, for instance. Interpolation schemes are typically used for this task, though they tend to produce unrealistically spatially smoothed results that are not representative of the atmospheric turbulence and variability that are usually resolved by weather radars. Recently, generative adversarial networks (GANs) have achieved impressive results in the area of photo inpainting. Here, they are demonstrated as a tool for infilling radar missing data regions. These neural networks are capable of extending large-scale cloud and precipitation features that border missing data regions into the regions while hallucinating plausible small-scale variability. In other words, they can inpaint missing data with accurate large-scale features and plausible local small-scale features. This method is demonstrated on a scanning C-band and vertically pointing Ka-band radar that were deployed as part of the Cloud Aerosol and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Three missing data scenarios are explored: infilling low-level blind zones and short outage periods for the Ka-band radar and infilling beam blockage areas for the C-band radar. Two deep-learning-based approaches are tested, a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a GAN that optimize pixel-level error or combined pixel-level error and adversarial loss respectively. Both deep-learning approaches significantly outperform traditional inpainting schemes under several pixel-level and perceptual quality metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PV Reliability and Resilience in Challenging Climates

Challenging climates for Photovoltaics are usually based on climate classification. However, extreme weather events such as high wind, flooding, large hail, extreme snow etc. have become more ubiquitous globally. To study the impact of extraordinary weather events on PV reliability we used two of the largest databases in the USA. First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database on extreme weather and secondly, the PV Fleet Data Initiative where we have collected high-resolution PV performance data of more than 8 gigawatts or about 6-7% of all commercial and utility systems in the USA. We analyzed almost 200 systems between 2008-20022 that were immediately impacted by these weather events. The immediate impact (outages) was determined to be about 1% of or a median of approximately 3 days of annual lost production. However, the risk these events pose is exemplified by a long tail where 0.4 % of all systems lost more than 2 weeks annual production. We also found a threshold for high wind (90 km/hr) and hail (25mm), above which we observed significantly higher degradation implying long-term damage to the systems. In addition, we are using satellite imagery to quantify visible damage to PV plants. Finally, we share module, design and installation lessons from some observed case studies to improve extreme weather resilience for PV power systems.

degradation↗

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model America - 2022 Arizona Building Energy Simulation Results from ORNL's AutoBEM

This dataset contains energy simulation outputs using ORNL's AutoBEM, covering the summer months (June 1st to August 31st) (named by "county_name.csv") and full-year periods (in output_all_year.zip) for each county in Arizona, USA. The data package includes simulation results such as basic energy metrics and anthropogenic emissions estimates. Files are provided in .csv. These data were generated to analyze the impact of weather conditions on energy use and emissions across urban and rural environments in Arizona, aiming to support research on urban heat islands, energy efficiency, and building retrofitting strategies. The source data for this work include NASA POWER weather datasets and computational models run using AutoBEM (i.e., an automated, large-scale energy simulation tool leveraging OpenStudio/EnergyPlus). This dataset can assist researchers, urban planners, and policymakers in developing climate-resilient energy systems and understanding anthropogenic contributions to local environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Background Data and Statistics on Low-Income Energy Use and Burden for the Weatherization Assistance Program: Update for Fiscal Year 2020

This report provides updated estimates of the energy consumptions, energy expenditures, and energy burdens of the population eligible to be served through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) and by proxy, those clients actually served by the program. WAP continues to serve a population with an energy burden that is much greater than the rest of the county. The mean energy burden for the WAP-eligible population across the United States for FY 2020 is estimated to be 13.9% compared to 3.0% for households living above the 200% poverty threshold. The mean energy burden for households living below the 100% federal poverty line was estimated to be 30.9%. These energy burdens for the WAP-eligible population have remained steady at this high level over the last decade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Meteorology and Snow Data Set From Adjacent Forested and Meadow Sites at Crested Butte, CO, USA

We present meteorology and snow observation data collected at sites in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA) over three consecutive water years with different amounts of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation: A year with above average SWE (2019), a year with average SWE (2020), and a year with below average SWE (2021). This data set is distinguished by its emphasis on paired open-forest sites in a continental snow climate. Approximately once a month during February–May, we collected data from 15 to 20 snow pits and took 8 to 19 snow depth transects. Our sampling sites were in open and adjacent forested areas at 3,100 m and in a lower elevation aspen (3,035 m) and higher elevation conifer stand (3,395 m). In total, we recorded 270 individual snow pit density and temperature profiles and over 4,000 snow depth measurements. These data are complimented by continuous meteorological measurements from two weather stations: One in the open and one in the adjacent forest. Meteorology data—including incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, outgoing shortwave radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, snow depth, and air and infrared surface temperature—were quality controlled and the forcing data were gap-filled. These data are available to download from Bonner, Smyth, et al. at three levels of processing, including a level with downscaled, adjusted precipitation based on data assimilation using observed snow depth and a process-based snow model. We demonstrate the utility of these data with a modeling experiment that explores open-forest differences and identifies opportunities for improvements in model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change Impacts on WAP

This presentation uncovers the science behind climate change and its direct impact on weatherization work! This presentation explores the facts, dissect the data, and connect the dots between climate change and the crucial role of weatherization.

change↗

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hourly gap-filled meteorological data from PIE LTER measurements (2004-2023) used as drivers to run ELM PFLOTRAN simulations

This dataset contains continuous gap-filled precipitation, solar radiation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and barometric pressure data recorded primarily at the Marshview Farm weather station within the Plum Island Long Term Ecosystems Research (PIE LTER) in Newbury Massachusetts (MA) from 2004 to 2023. We compiled the data set from published annual data packages in 15min resolution available on DataOne. Gaps were filled using different statistical techniques or available observations from the vicinity, e.g. the US-PLo and the US-PHM Ameriflux sites, also located within the PIE LTER. Flags are included in this dataset to indicate the origin of each data point. Metadata files ELMPFLOTRAN_met_dd.csv and ELMPFLOTRAN_met_flmd.csv contain more information on site locations, gap filling protocols, data variables, flags, and QA/QC methods. The data set was used in the spin up and simulations of a land surface model coupled to a biogeochemical reaction network (ELM PFLOTRAN) assessing impacts of hydrology and salinity input on methane fluxes in 2022 and 2023 (Sulman et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions

Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.

Corpuz, B. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, M↗

Statistically Resolved Planetary Boundary Layer Height Diurnal Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Data

The Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) significantly impacts weather, climate, and air quality. Understanding the global diurnal variation of the PBLH is particularly challenging due to the necessity of extensive observations and suitable retrieval algorithms that can adapt to diverse thermodynamic and dynamic conditions. This study utilized data from the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) to analyze the diurnal variation of PBLH in both continental and marine regions. By leveraging CATS data and a modified version of the Different Thermo-Dynamics Stability (DTDS) algorithm, along with machine learning denoising, the study determined the diurnal variation of the PBLH in continental mid-latitude and marine regions. The CATS DTDS-PBLH closely matches ground-based lidar and radiosonde measurements at the continental sites, with correlation coefficients above 0.6 and well-aligned diurnal variability, although slightly overestimated at nighttime. In contrast, PBLH at the marine site was consistently overestimated due to the viewing geometry of CATS and complex cloud structures. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating meteorological data with lidar signals for accurate and robust PBLH estimations, which are essential for effective boundary layer assessment from satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Astroparticle Detectors Array—An Educational Project in Cosmic Ray Physics

ADA, short for Astroparticle Detectors Array, is an educational project aiming to detect cosmic radiation and possibly high-energy particles known as ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) or even to spot a supernova event. Its working process is the same as that used in professional cosmic ray observatories: it consists of simple detectors spread over the entire Italian territory and beyond. The detectors are hosted among high schools, associations, and private astronomical observatories. ADA has been operating since 2013 and was brought about with the intention of promoting astroparticle physics to any given level of outreach. Furthermore, ADA is becoming an interesting tool not only for teachers but also for independent and keen scientists. Over the years, we have discovered the importance of having a long series of data for studying the relation between and among cosmic rays, weather, and space weather and to investigate the main cause of oscillations in cosmic ray data. In this paper, we show what we find to be the most compelling results, such as the beautiful symmetry of the behavior between muons and the atmospheric temperature and, likewise, the evident anti-correlation between the intensity of the muons at ground level compared with solar activity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Tethys Water Demand Data

U.S. water demand varies sharply by sector and region as land use, population, weather patterns, and economic activity co-evolve. High-resolution water demand data is required to capture these dynamics, support integrated energy-water-land modeling, and local-to-regional water scarcity assessments. This dataset contains gridded (1/8 degree), monthly, multi-sector water demand dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS) covering 1980-2100 across eight future scenarios of human-Earth system change. The dataset covers irrigation, thermoelectric, municipal (public-supply and domestic), livestock, manufacturing, and mining demands, separately for withdrawals and consumption, and includes per-cell renewable vs. non-renewable water source attributions. The dataset is validated against the latest USGS 2010-2020 water-use data for the three largest water demand sectors (Domestic, Electricity, and Irrigation), with correlations ranging from 0.73-0.95 at the HUC6 scale. The two datasets largely agree on an aggregate basis with per-sector bias falling within +/-7%, but they disagree on the spatial allocation of water with individual HUC6 basins having normalized RMSE from 68-171% and median absolute percent difference from 37-86%. This dataset advances prior global products by combining state-resolved sectoral demands from GCAM-USA, future power-plant siting from the CERF model, and scenario-consistent high-resolution climate and population forcing data across the eight scenarios.

GCAM-USA↗

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗