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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Pricing Game for Aggregated Demand Response Considering Comfort Level

In recent years, demand response (DR) has been explored as a fundamental strategy for demand-side management due to its advantages in mediating intermittency of renewable energy generation, load shifting, etc. To engage customers in DR programs, several deterministic price-based DR strategies have been developed and implemented. However, the stochastic weather conditions and occupants' consumption behaviors often make the deterministic solution less robust to uncertainties. In this paper, with the consideration of the uncertainties, a stochastic Stackelberg game is proposed to model the price-demand negotiation between a distributed system operator and load aggregators, where the virtual battery constraints are extracted from the building thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs)‘ characteristics to guarantee comfortable TCLs' levels. Following the negotiation, a priority-based control method is used to allocate the optimal aggregated power DR profile at the building level and track the power signal. Several groups of experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness and robustness of the stochastic solutions.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Managing Power Systems-Induced Wildfire Risks Using Optimal Scheduled Shutoffs

The increasing demands for electricity and the increase in extreme weather conditions are putting unprecedented pressure on our electric grids. Often, this pressure leads to electrical component failures, which might ignite wildfires. This work develops a novel model to balance the reliability of power network operations and the risk of wildfire ignition by opti- mizing the operational schedule of power transmission networks considering time-varying risk measures that include exogenous and operational factors. Energy storage systems are considered to deliver power during peak wildfire hours and enable temporal load shifting. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that maximizes a weighted sum of the served power demand and the reduction in grid-induced wildfire risk. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to significantly reduce wildfire risk without considerable load shedding.

power systems operations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Timescale Optimal Operation Framework for Integrated Economic and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Power Plants

This paper introduces a hierarchical modeling framework for hybrid power plants (HPP) to facilitate the operation of HPP in power systems similar to conventional generators (Congens) in the integrated multi-timescale optimal operation framework. To consider the uncertainties of HPP renewable power in the day-ahead scheduling, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is used. To ensure that the state-of-charge (SOC) of energy storage systems in HPPs aligns closely with the planned value for long-term reliability, real-time SOC management is incorporated. In addition, an adjustable real-time control is designed for the robust delivery of HPP real-time services. Case studies performed on a revised IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for HPP operation. Simulation results highlight that the proposed framework not only can help operators schedule HPP similar to Congens in varying weather conditions but can also maintain the frequency reliability of the system.

frequency stability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation for Potential High Limit Estimation-Based PV Plant Active Control

This paper validates the efficacy of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based photovoltaic (PV) plant control and optimization approach in enabling PV plants as accountable grid reliability service providers. The validation is performed in a realistic laboratory controller-hardware-in-the-loop environment, leveraging accurate PV plant modeling and standard industrial communication protocols. Through simulations that account for diverse weather conditions and active control scenarios, the results highlight the superior performance of the AI-based solution in comparison to a state-of-the-art reference-control grouping-based approach. Such a finding contributes to mitigating the risk of overcurtailment and uninstructed deviations of active PV plant controls, and offers practical guidance for its field deployment. Furthermore, it establishes a standardized testing framework for comparing various PV active control strategies.

hardware-in-the-loop↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online Output-Based Inertia Estimation of Modern Power Systems

The overall inertia of modern power systems is drastically impacted by the penetration level of converter-based resources (CBRs). The intermittent output of CBRs and their dependence on the weather conditions affirm the need for a realtime inertia estimation approach. This can help the transmission system operators(TSOs) to be continuously aware of the changes in the system inertia and to take suitable control actions. This paper is a step forward to a totally data-driven framework for power system inertia estimation using the available measurements from the phasor measurement units (PMUs). This inertia estimation is done based on the spectral analysis of the so-called Koopman linear operator. Koopman operator considers the relationship between the system's inertia and its dynamical response to slight disturbances in the load. Simulation results show that Koopman operator can approximate the system behavior in a reconstructed linear space hence inertia constant is estimated accurately.

data-driven↗
DOE OSTI2023

Control of Behind-the-Meter Resources for Enhancing the Resilience of Residential Buildings

There is increased concern about the impacts of frequent power outages, caused primarily by extreme weather conditions. With increasing behind-the-meter resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage, and controllable loads, these resources - if properly coordinated - can meet critical loads even during an outage. Resilience building controls can coordinate and operate these resources to enhance the resiliency of buildings supporting critical loads for longer duration. In this paper, we present two resilience building controls: rule-based control and model predictive control (MPC). We simulated various scenarios considering different locations, seasons, outage types, and times of outages to evaluate the performance of resilience controls. The results show that MPC-based control can enhance resilience up to 65% compared to rule-based control. Similarly, PV self-consumption and occupant thermal comfort both increase during outages with MPC-based control.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distribution System Resilience Assessment Considering PV Vulnerabilities for Hurricane Events

Distribution networks are increasingly vulnerable to damage and outages from extreme weather events. The integration of solar photovoltaics (PVs) further complicates resilience analysis due to its weather-dependent nature. However, limited research has examined the impacts of weather on PVs under severe events like hurricanes. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess distribution system resilience considering PV vulnerabilities during hurricanes. The framework incorporates (i) a spatiotemporal fragility model to evaluate failure probabilities for distribution lines and PVs, and (ii) resilience indices at both system and component levels. The approach offers valuable insights into the resilience of modern distribution grids under extreme weather conditions. Numerical results on the unbalanced IEEE 123-bus test system validate the effectiveness of the framework.

Vahedi, Soroush [University of Connecticut, Storrs↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving the Performance of Integrated Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop and Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulations

This paper introduces a novel multirate cosimulation architecture that overcomes previous challenges integrating faster real-time, microseconds-scale, power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) with larger scale but slower, real-time, seconds-scale, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation. Specifically, an intermediate reduced-equivalent electromagnetic transient (EMT) model duplicates the key power system topology to capture high-speed dynamics and converge hardware-power system interactions between QSTS updates. Exchanging multidimensional parameter vectors (loads, control status, etc.) between the QSTS and EMT models enables capturing the interactions of the rich, high-node-count (thousands of electrical nodes) QSTS model with the hardware. This architecture offers full spatial resolution from QSTS, including individual load dynamics, actual distribution management system controls, and nodal voltages. Simultaneously, the intermediate EMT model provides more detailed high-speed transients of key distributed energy resource hardware interactions. In addition, we use careful PHIL interface design and the exchange of complex power data, rather than current, to further improve performance. This cosimulation architecture is demonstrated by testing a simulated distribution system with an interconnected 500-kVA advanced photovoltaic (PV) inverter in PHIL. In conclusion, the architecture successfully captured PV local volt-volt ampere reactive (volt-VAR) control interactions with the larger network under time-varying electrical and weather conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Peak Power Minimization for Commercial Thermostatically Controlled Loads in Multi-Unit Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

The load profiles of most commercial and industrial consumers are characterized by brief periods of very high power consumption followed by intervals of lower demand. To encourage such consumers to flatten their load profiles, power utilities in and around the world often levy a monthly demand charge (DC) on the peak demand measured over brief intervals. In this work, we consider the joint optimization of energy costs (EC) and the instantaneous peak power of a multi-unit building which uses a hydronic heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system and responds to a demand response (DR) program. Despite the non-linear structure of the problem, we show how optimal solutions can be obtained efficiently using linear programming. Next, we study the power demand patterns resulting from our proposed strategy for thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), and evaluate the strategy’s performance for various climate zones in the US, under both typical and atypical weather conditions. Finally, the results show that depending on the ambient conditions and the tariff structure, our strategy can result in utility bill savings of up to nearly 19% compared to the baseline. The results also indicate that our power control strategy can significantly reduce the instantaneous peak power consumption in commercial TCLs.

HVAC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using cloud radar to investigate the effect of rainfall on migratory insect flight

The fate of migrating insects that encounter rainfall in flight is a critical consideration when modelling insect movement, but few field observations of this common phenomenon have ever been collected due to the logistical challenges of witnessing these encounters. Operational cloud radars have been deployed around the world by meteorological agencies to study precipitation physics, and as a byproduct, provide a rich database of insect observations that is freely available to researchers. Although considered unwanted ‘clutter’ by the meteorologists who collect the data, the analysis method presented here enables ecologists to delineate co-occurring signals from insects and raindrops. We present a method that uses image processing techniques on cloud radar velocity spectra to examine the fate of migrating insects when they encounter precipitation. By analysing velocity spectra, we can distinguish flying insects from falling rain and compare the relative density of insects in flight before, during and after the rainfall. We demonstrate the method on a case of insect migration in Oklahoma, USA. Using this method, we show the first reconstructed images of migrating insect layers in flight during rainfall. Our analysis shows that mild to moderate rainfall diminishes the number of insects aloft but does not cause full termination of migratory flight, as has previously been suggested. We hope this technique will spur further investigations of how changing weather conditions impact insect migration, and enable some of the first of such studies in regions of the world that are underrepresented in the literature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Study of Cost-Saving Potential of Load Flexibility Measures in Grid-Interactive Multifamily Buildings

With recent advances in smart technologies, more and more smart devices are penetrating the residential and commercial buildings market. The introduction of these smart devices is also helping IoT companies emerge with load aggregator roles in the sector. With more utility companies on the track of supporting OpenADR protocols, the aggregators could play a significant role in providing load flexibilities by automatically responding to demand response (DR) events and coordinating load flexibility measures between customers. This would benefit utility companies by reducing stress on the grid during critical peak demand hours as well as customers by allowing them to utilize utility rate structures advantageous to those able to reduce electric usage during high-demand hours. This study evaluates cost and energy savings from adopting multiple load flexibility measures in multifamily buildings. Combinations of different load flexibility measures, including space temperature floating, light dimming, automatic window shading, and water heater temperature floating, are considered. The simulations are performed using OpenStudio®, an open-source U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) simulation platform. For the case study, we used a midrise apartment building with weather conditions from Denver, Colorado. To compare climate zone differences, simulations were also performed for Los Angeles, California, and Chicago, Illinois. Initial results indicate that the application of automated load flexibility measures without careful consideration of dispatching strategies and DR program enrollments could significantly affect the savings. To get meaningful cost savings, aggregators need to encourage tenant awareness to curtail energy usage through occupant behavior in addition to dispatching automatic load flexibility measures. The outcomes from this study are believed to help load aggregators understand the risks and benefits of load flexibility opportunities.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

A tandem radiative/evaporative cooler for weather-insensitive and high-performance daytime passive cooling

Radiative cooling and evaporative cooling with low carbon footprint are regarded as promising passive cooling strategies. However, the intrinsic limits of continuous water supply with complex systems for evaporative cooling, and restricted cooling power as well as the strict requirement of weather conditions for radiative cooling, hinder the scale of their practical applications. Here, we propose a tandem passive cooler composed of bilayer polymer that enables dual-functional passive cooling of radiation and evaporation. Specifically, the high reflectivity to sunlight and mid-infrared emissivity of this polymer film allows excellent radiative cooling performance, and its good atmospheric water harvesting property of underlayer ensures self-supply of water and high evaporative cooling power. Consequently, this tandem passive cooler overcomes the fundamental difficulties of radiative cooling and evaporative cooling and shows the applicability under various conditions of weather/climate. It is expected that this design can expand the practical application domain of passive cooling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of a nocturnal low-level jet from a broad baroclinic zone

An analytical model is presented for the generation of a Blackadar-like nocturnal low-level jet in a broad baroclinic zone. The flow is forced from below (flat ground) by a surface buoyancy gradient and from above (free atmosphere) by a constant pressure gradient force. Diurnally-varying mixing coefficients are specified to increase abruptly at sunrise and decrease abruptly at sunset. With attention restricted to a surface buoyancy that varies linearly with a horizontal coordinate, the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion, thermal energy, and mass conservation reduce to a system of one-dimensional equations that can be solved analytically. Sensitivity tests with southerly jets suggest that (i) stronger jets are associated with larger decreases of the eddy viscosity at sunset (as in Blackadar theory), (ii) the nighttime surface buoyancy gradient has little impact on jet strength, and (iii) for pure baroclinic forcing (no free-atmosphere geostrophic wind), the nighttime eddy diffusivity has little impact on jet strength, but the daytime eddy diffusivity is very important and has a larger impact than the daytime eddy viscosity. The model was applied to a jet that developed in fair weather conditions over the Great Plains from southern Texas to northern South Dakota on 1 May 2020. The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for the afternoon prior to jet formation showed that a broad north-south-oriented baroclinic zone covered much of the region. The peak model-predicted winds were in good agreement with ERA5 winds and lidar data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility in north-central Oklahoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗