Completion of the Edward Air Force Base Statistical Guidance Wind Tool
The goal of this task was to develop a GUI using EAFB wind tower data similar to the KSC SLF peak wind tool that is already in operations at SMG. In 2004, MSFC personnel began work to replicate the KSC SLF tool using several wind towers at EAFB. They completed the analysis and QC of the data, but due to higher priority work did not start development of the GUI. MSFC personnel calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of 10-minute peak wind occurrence based on the 2-minute average wind speed for several EAFB wind towers. Once the data were QC'ed and analyzed the climatologies were calculated following the methodology outlined in Lambert (2003). The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and then were stratified by hour, direction (10" sectors), and direction (45" sectors)/hour. For all climatologies, MSFC calculated the mean, standard deviation and observation counts of the Zminute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds. MSFC personnel also calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds using PDFs. The empirical PDFs were asymmetrical and bounded on the left by the 2- minute average wind speed. They calculated the parametric PDFs by fitting the GEV distribution to the empirical distributions. Parametric PDFs were calculated in order to smooth and interpolate over variations in the observed values due to possible under-sampling of certain peak winds and to estimate probabilities associated with average winds outside the observed range. MSFC calculated the individual probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds by integrating the area under each curve. The probabilities assist SMG forecasters in assessing the shuttle FR for various Zminute average wind speeds. The A M ' obtained the processed EAFB data from Dr. Lee Bums of MSFC and reformatted them for input to Excel PivotTables, which allow users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was created from the PivotTables using VBA code. It is run through a macro within Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and probabilities in a fast-paced operational environment. The GUI was designed to look and operate exactly the same as the KSC SLF tool since SMG forecasters were already familiar with that product. SMG feedback was continually incorporated into the GUI ensuring the end product met their needs. The final version of the GUI along with all climatologies, PDFs, and probabilities has been delivered to SMG and will be put into operational use.