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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The concentration of BTEX in selected urban areas of Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) are air pollutants that harm human health. This study aims to identify BTEX concentrations before the lockdown known as the Movement Control Order was imposed (BMCO), during the implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO), and then during the Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO). These orders were introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. The study utilised data measured by the continuous monitoring of BTEX using online gas chromatography instruments located at three urban area stations. Here, the results showed that the BTEX concentrations reduced by between –38% and –46% during the MCO compared to the BMCO period. The reduction of human mobility during the MCO and CMCO influenced the lower BTEX concentrations recorded at a station within the Kuala Lumpur area. The results of the BTEX diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis showed that the major source of BTEX, especially during the BMCO and CMCO periods, was motor vehicle emissions. Further investigation, using correlation analysis and polar plots, showed that the BTEX concentrations were also influenced by meteorological variables such as wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Package Development for Reliability Testing of Perovskites

Metal halide perovskite solar cells have reached a critical point in their development. At a current certified record efficiency of 25.7% for a single-junction, research-scale cell, they now garner serious attention from the solar cell industry as a promising route to widespread, low-cost photovoltaics in single- or tandem-junction configurations. However, more work to demonstrate their durability under real-world outdoor test conditions is necessary to ensure the long-term success and deployment of the technology. Differences in chemistry, processes, and their combination result in unique performance limiters for both efficiency and stability. Further, as many active formulations and layer/cell stack combinations are sensitive to temperature, air, and moisture, it is important to separate intrinsic limitations to stability relative to these extrinsic sources. This presents a particular need for the development of an appropriate and reliable package for environmental (i.e., accelerated and outdoor) testing that will permit these different factors to be evaluated and understood.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Drizzle, Turbulence, and Density Currents Below Post Cold Frontal Open Cellular Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

Nine cases of postcold frontal marine stratocumulus clouds exhibiting open cellular mesoscale organization are analyzed to characterize the drizzle, turbulence, and density currents below them. Data collected by the vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar and multiple lidars part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are used in these analyses. A total of 251 drizzle shafts passed over the site with 76 shafts sampled for more than 15 min by the vertically pointing instruments. On average the drizzle shafts were ~18 km wide with below-cloud drizzle water path of ~40 g m −2 , cloud base rain rate of 7.78 mm day −1 , and cloud base drizzle modal diameter of 393 μm. The widths of the drizzle shafts did not exhibit any relationship with the cloud base rain rate, below-cloud drizzle water path, and the total water removed from the cloud. The downdrafts in the lowest 500 m within the drizzle cells strengthened with increasing cloud base rain rates, while the updrafts within drizzle cells did not exhibit this behavior. On average, the surface air density, pressure, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed along the background wind during the drizzle shaft were higher by 1.88 g m −3 , 8.60 Pa, 0.24 g kg −1 , and 1.22 m s −1 , respectively, from their background values. On the other hand, the surface air temperature was lower by 0.43 K during the drizzle shaft than its background value. The coincident measurements highlight the drizzle-turbulence-surface coupling in these cloud systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal Dependent Impact of Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering on the Polar Climate

Most climate models neglect cloud longwave (LW) scattering because scattering is considered negligible compared to strong LW absorption by clouds and greenhouse gases. While this rationale is valid for simulating extrapolar regions, it is questionable for the polar regions, where the atmosphere is dry and hence has weak absorption, and ice clouds that have strong scattering capability frequently occur. Using the slab-ocean Community Earth System Model, we show that ice cloud LW scattering can warm winter surface air temperature by 0.8–1.8 K in the Arctic and 1.3–1.9 K in the Antarctic, while this warming becomes much weaker in polar summer. Such scattering effect cannot be correctly assessed when sea surface temperature and sea ice are prescribed as this effect is manifested through a surface-atmosphere coupling. Furthermore, cloud LW scattering is a necessity for the correct simulation of polar climate and surface radiation budget, especially in the winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends

Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960-2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (versus land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (versus mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Furthermore, our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Atlantic Jet Response to Stratospheric Events: A Regime Perspective

The tropospheric response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is associated with an equatorward shift in the midlatitude jet and associated storm tracks, while Strong Polar Vortex (SPV) events elicit a contrasting response. Recent analyses of the North Atlantic jet using probability density functions of a jet latitude index have identified three preferred jet latitudes, raising the question of whether the tropospheric response to SSWs and SPVs results from a change in relative frequencies of these preferred jet regimes rather than a systematic jet shift. We explore this question using atmospheric reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 (26 SSWs and 33 SPVs), and a 202-years integration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (92 SSWs and 68 SPVs). Following SSWs, the northern jet regime becomes less common and the central and southern regimes become more common. These changes occur almost immediately following “split” vortex events, but are more delayed following “displacement” events. In contrast, the northern regime becomes more frequent and the southern regime less frequent following SPV events. Following SSWs, composites of 500-hPa geopotential heights, surface air temperatures, and precipitation most closely resemble composites of the southern jet regime, and are generally opposite in sign to the composites of the northern jet regime. These comparisons are reversed following SPVs. Thus, one possible interpretation is that the two southernmost regimes appear to be favored following SSWs, while the southernmost regime becomes less common following SPVs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Environmental Factors Explaining Temporal Patterns of DOC Export From Watersheds in the Conterminous United States

The export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from a watershed is a key component of the terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle. There is a need to improve our understanding of how and by how much various environmental factors are driving the temporal patterns of DOC export in order to accurately model and evaluate terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes. In this synthesis, we compiled observational data sets from 14 watersheds in the conterminous United States spanning the time period from 1981 to 2017. We used these data sets to examine the relative impacts of various climate, atmospheric deposition, and land cover factors on the temporal patterns of DOC export across watersheds of different sizes and landscape conditions, as well as the time-series autocorrelation of DOC export. Overall, our results suggest that the dominant factor on an annual scale was the amount of precipitation, which had a positive correlation with DOC export from a watershed. Overall increasing nitrogen deposition was coincident with increasing DOC export, and increasing sulfur deposition was coincident with declining DOC export. The seasonal pattern of DOC export was strongly regulated by air temperature, the long-term trend was negatively influenced by increasing sulfur deposition, and no obvious autocorrelation was detected in DOC export. In addition, higher rates of DOC export were positively correlated with greater area of wetlands within a watershed, but was not found to be strongly related to any of the other land cover types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Slope-Aspect Induced Climate Differences Influence How Water Is Exchanged Between the Land and Atmosphere

Cross-slope climate differences in the midlatitudes are ecologically important, and impact vegetation-mediated water balance between the earth surface and the atmosphere. We made high-resolution in situ observations of air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, insolation, and sap velocity observations on 14 Pacific madrone trees (Arbutus menziesii) spanning adjacent north and south slopes at the University of California's Angelo Coast Range Reserve. To understand the cross-slope response of sap velocity, a proxy for transpiration, to microclimate, we modeled the sap velocity on each slope using a transpiration model driven by ambient environment and parameterized with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation process. The results show that trees on opposing slopes do not follow a shared pattern of physiological response to transpiration drivers. This means that the observed sap velocity differences are not due entirely to observed microclimate differences, but also due to population-level physiological differences, which indicates acclimation to inhabited microclimate. While our present data set and analytical tools do not identify mechanisms of acclimation, we speculate that differing proportions of sun-adapted and shade-adapted leaves, differences in stomatal regulation, and cross-slope root zone moisture differences could explain some of the observed and modeled differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tower-Based Remote Sensing Reveals Mechanisms Behind a Two-phased Spring Transition in a Mixed-Species Boreal Forest

The boreal forest is a major contributor to the global climate system, therefore, reducing uncertainties in how the forest will respond to a changing climate is critical. One source of uncertainty is the timing and drivers of the spring transition. Remote sensing can provide important information on this transition, but persistent foliage greenness, seasonal snow cover, and a high prevalence of mixed forest stands (both deciduous and evergreen species) complicate interpretation of these signals. We collected tower-based remotely sensed data (reflectance-based vegetation indices and Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF]), stem radius measurements, gross primary productivity, and environmental conditions in a boreal mixed forest stand. Evaluation of this data set shows a two-phased spring transition. The first phase is the reactivation of photosynthesis and transpiration in evergreens, marked by an increase in relative SIF, and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperatures, and increased available soil moisture. The second phase is a reduction in bulk photoprotective pigments in evergreens, marked by an increase in the Chlorophyll-Carotenoid Index. Deciduous leaf-out occurs during this phase, marked by an increase in all remotely sensed metrics. The second phase is controlled by soil thaw. Our results demonstrate that remote sensing metrics can be used to detect specific physiological changes in boreal tree species during the spring transition. The two-phased transition explains inconsistencies in remote sensing estimates of the timing and drivers of spring recovery. Our results imply that satellite-based observations will improve by using a combination of vegetation indices and SIF, along with species distribution information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great Plains

Downwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 23-year DLR record measured by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Two AERIs were deployed at SGP with an overlapping observation period of about 10 years, which allows us to examine the consistency and accuracy of the measurements and to account for discrepancies between them due to errors associated with the instruments themselves. We then analyzed the all-sky radiance trends in DLR, which are associated with the surface warming trend at SGP during this same period and also the complex changes in meteorological conditions. For instance, the observed radiance in the CO2 absorption band follows closely the near-surface air temperature variations. The significant positive radiance trends in weak absorption channels, such as in the wings of the CO 2 band and in the weak absorption channels in the H 2 O vibration-rotational band, show earlier detectability of climate change. The magnitude of the radiance trend uncertainty in the DLR record mainly results from internal climate variability rather than from measurement error, which highlights the importance of continuing the DLR spectral measurements to unambiguously detect and attribute climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wintertime Brine Discharge at the Surface of a Cold Polar Glacier and the Unexpected Absence of Associated Seismicity

A subglacial groundwater system beneath Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, discharges hypersaline, iron-rich brine episodically at the glacier surface to create Blood Falls. However, the triggering mechanism for these brine release events is not yet understood. Identifying which fracture processes are observed seismically can help us better characterize the hydrological system at Taylor Glacier, and more generally, provide us with a broader understanding of englacial hydrologic activity in cold glaciers. We document wintertime brine discharge using time-lapse photography. Subfreezing air temperatures during the brine discharge indicate that surface melt-induced hydrofracture is an unlikely trigger for brine release. Further, we analyze local seismic data to test a hypothesis that fracturing generates elevated surface wave energy preceding and/or coinciding with brine release events. Our results show no discernible elevated Rayleigh wave activity prior to or during Blood Falls brine release. Instead, we find a pattern of seismic events dominated by a seasonal signal, with more Rayleigh events occurring in the summer than the winter from the Blood Falls source area. We calculate that the volumetric opening of cracks that would generate Rayleigh waves at our detection limits are of similar size to myriad cracks in glacier ice, lake ice, and frozen sediment in the terminus area. We therefore propose that any fracturing coincident with brine release activity likely consists of a series of smaller opening events that are masked by other seismicity in the local environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck western United States in 2020, directly damaging properties and threatening human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe in 2020, which disrupted human activities and resulted in substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions of aerosols, precursors, and greenhouse gases during the pandemic on wildfire weather conditions in 2020 over western United States by using an earth system model together with observational data. We show that the COVID-19 emissions reductions in model experiments increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains 10-40% of the observed increase in the risk of wildfires over western United States in 2020. In conclusion, this study suggests that COVID-19-related abrupt emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

Xu, Donghui↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record-breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show non-monotonic changes of the space-time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20~40 % or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non-monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100-1000 km 2 ) and temporal scales (less than 6 hours) rather than over the entire domain (~10 4 km 2 ) and aggregated over the storm duration (around two days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Furthermore, atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short-duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convective Vortices and Dust Devils Detected and Characterized by Mars 2020

Abstract We characterize vortex and dust devils (DDs) at Jezero from pressure and winds obtained with the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) instrument on Mars 2020 over 415 Martian days (sols) ( Ls = 6°–213°). Vortices are abundant (4.9 per sol with pressure drops >0.5 Pa correcting from gaps in coverage) and they peak at noon. At least one in every five vortices carries dust, and 75% of all vortices with Δ p > 2.0 Pa are dusty. Seasonal variability was small but DDs were abundant during a dust storm ( Ls = 152°–156°). Vortices are more frequent and intense over terrains with lower thermal inertia favoring high daytime surface‐to‐air temperature gradients. We fit measurements of winds and pressure during DD encounters to models of vortices. We obtain vortex diameters that range from 5 to 135 m with a mean of 20 m, and from the frequency of close encounters we estimate a DD activity of 2.0–3.0 DDs km −2 sol −1 . A comparison of MEDA observations with a Large Eddy Simulation of Jezero at Ls = 45° produces a similar result. Three 100‐m size DDs passed within 30 m of the rover from what we estimate that the activity of DDs with diameters >100 m is 0.1 DDs km −2 sol −1 , implying that dust lifting is dominated by the largest vortices in Jezero. At least one vortex had a central pressure drop of 9.0 Pa and internal winds of 25 ms −1 . The MEDA wind sensors were partially damaged during two DD encounters whose characteristics we elaborate in detail.

Hueso, R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗