Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “behavioral modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Simulation Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Stochastic Occupant Behaviors on Demand Flexibility in Typical Commercial Buildings

As one of the primary users of the electric grid, buildings and building equipment, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, can be leveraged to provide the flexible demand needed to balance the grid. Typical strategies to achieve demand flexibility are to reduce electricity use during peak or critical periods by shutting down equipment or relaxing system setpoints, which will inevitably impact the occupants’ comfort. When occupants feel uncomfortable, they may take actions to regain their comfort, and some of those actions (such as turning on a personal fan) may have a negative impact on meeting the demand response goal. Therefore, it is important to incorporate occupant behaviors into the assessment ofthe building demand flexibility potential. In this study, a simulation framework that includes simulation of zone thermal loads, an HVAC system, and occupant behaviors, was developed to investigate the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility. A case study was conducted using a small office model from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Prototype Building Models to simulate the building envelope and zone loads. An agent-based occupant thermal behavior model was adapted to forecast occupants’ thermal comfort and their resulting thermal behaviors. An artificial neural network (ANN) based airflow model trained from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the zone was adopted to better predict the ambient environment of each occupant. An air-source heat pump simulation model that was calibrated from a real two-stage air-source heat pump system was used as the HVAC system. A typical load shedding event during peak hours was studied. Repeated simulations were conducted to capture the stochastic effects of occupant behaviors. The interplay between the demand flexibility, occupant comfort and behavior were analyzed by evaluating key performance indicators, including the energy use, occupant discomfort duration, and occupant behavior duration during the peak period. The results suggest that this framework can be used to analyze typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms ofdemand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

Chen, Zhelun↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Modified Network Alteration Model to Predict Quasi-Static Behavior of the Cross-Linked Polymers During Hydrolytic Aging

Abstract The network alteration theory is utilized to capture the effects of hydrolytic aging on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix. Hydrolytic degradation generally considered as a result of two simultaneous chemical phenomena; (i) reduction of the cross-links, and (ii) active chain loss. Assuming the alteration of the chain density is identical to the change of the number average molecular weight along the aging trajectory, the strain energy of polymer matrix can be rewritten as a function of deformation, deformation history, storage time, and aging temperature. The proposed model includes only five physically inspired material parameters. Thus, while it is computationally efficient, it shows good agreement with own experimental data, which performed on various range of accelerated aging temperatures and times. With respect to its computational efficiency, simplicity, accuracy, and interpret-ability, the model is a good choice for advanced implementations in FE programs.

Bahrololoumi, Amir↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co‐Evolution of Specific Stiffness and Permeability of Rock Fractures Offset in Shear

Abstract Fractures and faults represent planes of weakness and compliance in rock masses that serve as focal points for both microearthquakes and fluid transport, with seismicity and permeability evolution closely linked. Contact stiffness is highly stress‐sensitive and directly influences permeability. We explore the co‐evolution of specific stiffness and permeability of rough fractures under normal stress and shear offset using numerical simulations. Individual rough fractures are represented by variable amplitude (Root mean square) and wavelength ( λ ) using a granular mechanics model. Contacting rough surfaces are mated, offset in shear, and then compacted in displacement mode. The compacting fractures generate stress‐dependent changes in contact porosity, which govern both permeability and stiffness evolution. We establish a universal dimensionless relationship linking specific stiffness and permeability that inherently incorporates the effects of surface roughness, shear offset, and microcracking. The observed cracking effect—where local stress redistribution and pressure‐driven microcrack propagation dynamically alter the aperture field—introduces a nonlinear permeability response at high stress. Increased roughness amplitude and larger shear offsets reduce stiffness while dampening permeability sensitivity to stress, demonstrating a strong interplay between surface texture and hydro‐mechanical behavior. While the model captures this behavior effectively, deviations emerge at very low porosities due to extreme aperture sensitivity in this limit.

He, Xinxin [Energy and Mineral Engineering Pennsyl↗
DOE OSTI2022

An IIPG-based finite element framework in MOOSE for modeling fiber reinforced composite failure governed by extrinsic cohesive laws

Fiber reinforced composites (FRC) are widely applied to many important engineering structures such as silicon carbide ceramic matrix composite (SiC CMC) of nuclear fuel claddings. Many material and structure failures are initiated at the interface between two distinctive materials, such as the debonding of interfaces of matrix/fiber of composites or bulk matrix/inclusion in metals at micro-scales. Accurate and robust modeling of these interface failures is critical to the development of novel material and structure with improved functionality. This paper presents a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method based on the Incomplete Interior Penalty scheme and its implementation in MOOSE for modeling material interface behaviors. The proposed method naturally accommodates important extrinsic cohesive zone material models and is capable of modeling the failures of material interfaces across which material properties are highly distinctive. We demonstrate a good performance of the proposed method using single fiber and multiple fiber debonding problems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observational Evidence for Cosmological Coupling of Black Holes and its Implications for an Astrophysical Source of Dark Energy

Observations have found black holes spanning 10 orders of magnitude in mass across most of cosmic history. The Kerr black hole solution is, however, provisional as its behavior at infinity is incompatible with an expanding universe. Black hole models with realistic behavior at infinity predict that the gravitating mass of a black hole can increase with the expansion of the universe independently of accretion or mergers, in a manner that depends on the black hole's interior solution. We test this prediction by considering the growth of supermassive black holes in elliptical galaxies over 0 < z ≲ 2.5. We find evidence for cosmologically coupled mass growth among these black holes, with zero cosmological coupling excluded at 99.98% confidence. The redshift dependence of the mass growth implies that, at z ≲ 7, black holes contribute an effectively constant cosmological energy density to Friedmann's equations. The continuity equation then requires that black holes contribute cosmologically as vacuum energy. We further show that black hole production from the cosmic star formation history gives the value of Ω Λ measured by Planck while being consistent with constraints from massive compact halo objects. We thus propose that stellar remnant black holes are the astrophysical origin of dark energy, explaining the onset of accelerating expansion at z ~ 0.7.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blending Behavioral Science and Physics-Based Models Inform Equitable Decarbonization Pathways in the US Housing Stock: Preprint

A just energy transition is an imperative of the Biden-Harris Administration, emphasizing the equitable distribution of benefits through energy-efficient and decarbonizing household technologies. Understanding the factors that increase a household's willingness to adopt these technologies helps policymakers implement more targeted and effective approaches. Our research addresses this by blending 550,000 housing stock types and energy simulation data with a nationally representative survey on residential technology adoption and decision-making (n=10,000). We identify energy equity gaps across tenure and income, highlighting disparities in energy burdens and insecurity. Findings show that households with prior modification experience are more willing to renovate, suggesting that small-scale retrofit programs could foster greater willingness. Energy secure but burdened homeowners are least willing to modify, highlighting the need to consider energy bill perceptions in policy design. Nearly half of US households that are energy burdened also face energy insecurity, with a significant gap in assistance for low-income households. We emphasize the need to understand household perceptions to improve policy. This research underscores the importance of understanding household behaviors to improve policy effectiveness, offering actionable insights for policymakers to promote equitable housing upgrades and advance a decarbonized future.

behavioral science↗
DOE OSTI2021

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Impacts of Material Properties on Oscillatory Neuron Behavior

In this study, neuromorphic computing, which mimics the functions of biological brains, offers improvements in both latency and energy efficiency over typical von Neumann computing architectures. Spiking neural networks can be especially power-efficient because they encode information temporally and can use more sparse electrical inputs. Here, we study the design of volatile memristors (variable resistors with memory) for neuronal devices, with particular consideration toward the feasibility of all-on-chip oscillation using built-in capacitance. We use circuit simulations to model the behavior of oscillator neurons with a range of realistic material properties. We find that energy inputs increase with insulating-phase resistivity, thermal conductivity, and device aspect ratio. However, we also find that the minimum capacitance needed for oscillation decreases with increasing insulating-phase resistivity, which opposes the constraints for power efficiency. Based on published data on NbO 2 , VO 2 , and EuNiO 3 , we find that existing materials can be engineered for all-on-chip spiking using their parasitic capacitance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Scaling Laws for Jet Generation

Recently observed empirical scaling laws describe the performance of foundation-type models as three independent key quantities -- dataset size, compute, and model parameters -- are modified. Extracting these scaling laws informs the training of large complex models for which the tuning of hyperparameters in traditional ways is not feasible. This work for the first time explores if scaling laws can also be observed for the task of particle jet generation -- both relevant as a pre-training objective for foundation models and as in-situ simulation by itself. We indeed replicate the key logarithmic scaling law behavior for model-size scaling. Beyond studying the next token prediction validation loss of the generative model, we also study the sliced Wasserstein distance of five physical quantities that are not immediately available to the model during training. Our study shows that this quantity is monotonically related to the next token prediction validation loss, meaning that this loss is indeed a good proxy for the physics performance. For the scaling with dataset size and compute, we observe substantially weaker scaling behavior of both the loss and the sliced Wasserstein distance. We analyze this behavior by introducing the concept of a learnable window, and argue that autoregressive next token prediction on jet constituents exhibits comparatively rapid saturation relative to language-model studies. We discuss possible origins of this behavior, including the stochastic nature of QCD radiation and differences between generative and supervised learning tasks in collider physics.

Amram, Oz [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2019

A two-phase substrate model for enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulose: application to batch and continuous reactors

Abstract Background Enzymatic hydrolysis continues to have a significant projected production cost for the biological conversion of biomass to fuels and chemicals, motivating research into improved enzyme and reactor technologies in order to reduce enzyme usage and equipment costs. However, technology development is stymied by a lack of accurate and computationally accessible enzymatic-hydrolysis reaction models. Enzymatic deconstruction of cellulosic materials is an exceedingly complex physico-chemical process. Models which elucidate specific mechanisms of deconstruction are often too computationally intensive to be accessible in process or multi-physics simulations, and empirical models are often too inflexible to be effectively applied outside of their batch contexts. In this paper, we employ a phenomenological modeling approach to represent rate slowdown due to substrate structure (implemented as two substrate phases) and feedback inhibition, and apply the model to a continuous reactor system. Results A phenomenological model was developed in order to predict glucose and solids concentrations in batch and continuous enzymatic-hydrolysis reactors from which liquor is continuously removed by ultrafiltration. A series of batch experiments were performed, varying initial conditions (solids, enzyme, and sugar concentrations), and best-fit model parameters were determined using constrained nonlinear least-squares methods. The model achieved a good fit for overall sugar yield and insoluble solids concentration, as well as for the reduced rate of sugar production over time. Additionally, without refitting model coefficients, good quantitative agreement was observed between results from continuous enzymatic-hydrolysis experiments and model predictions. Finally, the sensitivity of the model to its parameters is explored and discussed. Conclusions Although the phenomena represented by the model correspond to behaviors that emerge from clusters of mechanisms, and hence a set of model coefficients are unique to the substrate and the enzyme system, the model is efficient to solve and may be applied to novel reactor schema and implemented in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Hence, this modeling approach finds the right balance between model complexity and computational efficiency. These capabilities have broad application to reactor design, scale-up, and process optimization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Steady Laminar Flame for 1-Step Thermal Decomposition Model of PBX 9501

We have recently developed a new 1-step thermal decomposition model of PBX 9501 high explosive. In this report, we examine the behavior of the model in 1-D steady laminar flame calculations. In particular, the dependencies of the steady laminar flame velocity on initial pressure, thermal conductivies and parameters of the thermal decomposition model are investigated. The results of our numerical calculations are compared to available experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Full-sky Models of Galactic Microwave Emission and Polarization at Subarcminute Scales for the Python Sky Model

Polarized foreground emission from the Galaxy is one of the biggest challenges facing current and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments. We develop new models of polarized Galactic dust and synchrotron emission at CMB frequencies that draw on the latest observational constraints; that employ the “polarization fraction tensor” framework to couple intensity and polarization in a physically motivated way; and that allow for stochastic realizations of small-scale structure at subarcminute angular scales currently unconstrained by full-sky data. We implement these models into the publicly available Python Sky Model (PySM) software and additionally provide PySM interfaces to select models of dust and CO emission from the literature. We characterize the behavior of each model by quantitatively comparing it to observational constraints in both maps and power spectra, demonstrating an overall improvement over previous PySM models. Finally, we synthesize models of the various Galactic foreground components into a coherent suite of three plausible microwave skies that span a range of astrophysical complexity allowed by current data. Author contributions to this paper can be found at the end of this work.

Group, The Pan-Experiment Galactic Science↗