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Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann↗

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Influence of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes on neonate survival in an invasive large mammal

Abstract Understanding factors influencing survival of neonates for wild species is important for successful management, particularly for determining drivers of population dynamics. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are invasive and populations are rapidly increasing in part due to high reproductive capacity. Survival of adults is generally high, however, survival of piglets, and particularly neonates, is largely unknown. We located neonates at the natal nest and quantified survival in relation to individual and maternal biological attributes, and environmental variables. During 2017–2020, we captured 50 neonates from 13 litters and documented 28 mortalities (56%) over six weeks. Survival was positively influenced by pelage coloration, likely as a form of camouflage from predators. Male neonates had higher survival. They were born larger than females, which could be beneficial for thermoregulation and competition for milk. Neonates born to larger sows had lower survival. Sow size was positively correlated with litter size, and this finding may reflect the increased nutritional demands of sustaining large litters, or difficulties in defending more neonates against predators. Neonates born in warmer months had higher survival than those born in cooler months. Neonates are inefficient thermoregulators, thus being born in warmer months could be beneficial for maintaining homeostasis as well as access to more food resources. These are the largest and most complete data for neonate wild pig survival and will inform population models for the development of management strategies to reduce negative impacts of this destructive invasive species on native ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Control Mode and R-Ratio on the Fatigue Behavior of a Metal Matrix Composite

Composite Because of their high specific stiffness and strength at elevated temperatures, continuously reinforced metal matrix composites (MMC's) are under consideration for a future generation of aeropropulsion systems. Since components in aeropropulsion systems experience substantial cyclic thermal and mechanical loads, the fatigue behavior of MMC's is of great interest. Almost without exception, previous investigations of the fatigue behavior of MMC's have been conducted in a tension-tension, load-controlled mode. This has been due to the fact that available material is typically less than 2.5-mm thick and, therefore, unable to withstand high compressive loads without buckling. Since one possible use of MMC's is in aircraft skins, this type of testing mode may be appropriate. However, unlike aircraft skins, most engine components are thick. In addition, the transient thermal gradients experienced in an aircraft engine will impose tension-compression loading on engine components, requiring designers to understand how the MMC will behave under fully reversed loading conditions. The increased thickness of the MMC may also affect the fatigue life. Traditionally, low-cycle fatigue (LCF) tests on MMC's have been performed in load control. For monolithic alloys, low-cycle fatigue tests are more typically performed in strain control. Two reasons justify this choice: (1) the critical volume from which cracks initiate and grow is generally small and elastically constrained by the larger surrounding volume of material, and (2) load-controlled, low-cycle fatigue tests of monolithics invariably lead to unconstrained ratcheting and localized necking--an undesired material response because the failure mechanism is far more severe than, and unrelated to, the fatigue mechanism being studied. It is unknown if this is the proper approach to composite testing. However, there is a lack of strain-controlled data on which to base any decisions. Consequently, this study addresses the isothermal, LCF behavior of a [0]_32 MMC tested under strain- and load-controlled conditions for both zero-tension and tension-compression loading conditions. These tests were run at 427 C on thick specimens of SiC-reinforced Ti-15-3. For the fully-reversed tests, no difference was observed in the lives between the load- and strain-controlled tests. However, for the zero-tension tests, the strain-controlled tests had longer lives by a factor of 3 in comparison to the load-controlled tests. This was due to the fact that under strain-control the specimens cyclically softened, reducing the cracking potential. In contrast, the load-controlled tests ratcheted toward larger tensile strains leading to an eventual overload of the fibers. Fatigue tests revealed that specimens tested under fully-reversed conditions had lives approximately an order of magnitude longer than for those specimens tested under zero tension. When examined on a strain-range basis, the fully reversed specimens had similar, but still shorter lives than those of the unreinforced matrix material. However, the composite had a strain limitation at short lives because of the limited strain capacity of the brittle ceramic fiber. The composite also suffered at very high lives because of the lack of an apparent fatigue limit in comparison to the unreinforced matrix. The value of adding fibers to the matrix is apparent when the fatigue lives are plotted as a function of stress range. Here, the composite is far superior to the unreinforced matrix because of the additional load-carrying capacity of the fibers.

Source record↗

The direct and indirect drivers shaping RNA viral communities in grassland soil

Recent studies have revealed diverse RNA viral communities in soils. Yet, how environmental factors influence soil RNA viruses remains largely unknown. Here, we recovered RNA viral communities from 24 metatranscriptomes sequenced from grassland soils managed under a range of environmental conditions including 1) water content: 100% and 25% water holding capacity, 2) plant presence: planted with tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) and bare soil, 3) cultivar type: Alkar and Jose, and 4) soil depth: 0-5 cm and 15-25 cm. The recovered RNA viral communities were novel with nearly one-third of the RNA viral contigs uniquely detected in the studied grassland. The classified RNA viral contigs are mostly known as eukaryotic RNA viruses (74.7%) belonging to Phyla Duplornaviricota, Kitrinoviricota, Lenarviricota, and Pisuviricota. Eukaryotic RNA viruses of Family Mitoviridae as well as their natural hosts, Fungi, are one of the most dominant taxa. Consistent with the results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis, the four environmental conditions (water content, plant presence, cultivar, and soil depth) significantly influence the assemblages of soil RNA viral communities as suggested by the correlation analysis and the random forest algorithm. The modularity analysis of the factor network and the structural equation modeling further support the hierarchical associations among the four environmental factors and the community factors representing the co-existing eukaryotic, prokaryotic, and RNA viral communities. The soil water content, plant presence, and type of cultivar demonstrate a significant positive impact on eukaryotic RNA viral richness directly as well as indirectly on eukaryotic RNA viral abundance via influencing the co-existing eukaryotic members in this soil. Our data also provide statistical support for the negative influence of soil depth on soil eukaryotic richness and abundances resulting in its indirect impact on soil eukaryotic RNA viral communities. This study provides field-relevant information on how environmental and community factors collectively shape soil RNA communities and contribute to ecological understanding of RNA viral survival under various environmental conditions and virus-host interactions in soil.

Wu, Ruonan↗

Analysis of Fade Detection and Compensation Experimental Results in a Ka-Band Satellite System

The frequency bands being used for new satellite communication systems are constantly increasing to accommodate the requirements for additional capacity. At these higher frequencies, propagation impairments that did not significantly affect the signal at lower frequencies begin to have considerable impact. In Ka-band, the next logical commercial frequency band to be used for satellite communication, attenuation of the signal due to rain is a primary concern. An experimental satellite built by NASA, the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS), launched in September 1993, is the first US communication satellite operating in the Ka-band. In addition to higher carrier frequencies, a number of other new technologies, including onboard baseband processing, multiple beam antennas, and rain fade detection and compensation techniques, were designed into the ACTS. Verification experiments have been conducted since the launch to characterize the new technologies. The focus of this thesis is to describe and validate the method used by the ACTS Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) ground stations in detecting the presence of fade in the communication signal and to adaptively compensate for it by the addition of burst rate reduction and forward error correction. Measured data obtained from the ACTS program is used to validate the compensation technique. In this thesis, models in MATLAB are developed to statistically characterize the increased availability achieved by the compensation techniques in terms of the bit error rate time enhancement factor. Several improvements to the ACTS technique are discussed and possible implementations for future Ka-band systems are also presented.

Johnson, Sandra↗

T1 VSAT Fade Compensation Statistical Results

New satellite communication systems are steadily seeking to use higher frequency bands to accommodate the requirements for additional capacity. At these higher frequencies, propagation impairments that did not significantly affect the signal at lower frequencies begin to have considerable impact. In Ka-band. the next logical commercial frequency band to be used for satellite communication, attenuation of the signal due to rain is a primary concern. An experimental satellite built by NASA, the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS). launched in September 1993, is the first U.S. communication satellite operating in the Ka-band. In addition to higher carrier frequencies, a number of other new technologies, including on-board baseband processing. multiple beam antennas, and rain fade detection and compensation techniques, were designed into the ACTS. Verification experiments have been conducted since the launch to characterize the new technologies. The focus of this paper is to characterize the method used by the ACTS TI Very Small Aperture Terminal (TI VSAT) ground stations in detecting the presence of fade in the communication signal and to adaptively compensate for it by the addition of burst rate reduction and forward error correction. Measured data obtained from the ACTS program was used to validate the compensation technique. A software process was developed and demonstrated to statistically characterize the increased availability achieved by the compensation techniques in terms of the bit error rate time enhancement factor. Several improvements to the ACTS technique are discussed and possible implementations for future Ka band system are offered.

Johnson, Sandra K.↗

Mechanisms of cardiac hypertrophy in canine volume overload

This study tested whether the modest hypertrophy that develops in dogs in response to mitral regurgitation is due to a relatively small change in the rate of protein synthesis or, alternatively, is due to a decreased rate of protein degradation. After 3 mo of severe experimental mitral regurgitation, the left ventricular (LV) mass-to-body weight ratio increased by 23% compared with baseline values. This increase in LV mass occurred with a small, but not statistically significant, increase in the fractional rate of myosin heavy chain (MHC) synthesis (Ks), as measured using continuous infusion with [3H]leucine in dogs at 2 wk, 4 wk, and 3 mo after creation of severe mitral regurgitation. Translational efficiency was unaffected by mitral regurgitation as measured by the distribution of MHC mRNA in polysome gradients. Furthermore, there was no detectable increase in translational capacity as measured by either total RNA content or the rate of ribosome formation. These data indicate that translational mechanisms that accelerate the rate of cardiac protein synthesis are not responsive to the stimulus of mitral regurgitation. Most of the growth after mitral regurgitation was accounted for by a decrease in the fractional rate of protein degradation, calculated by subtracting fractional rates of protein accumulation at each time point from the corresponding Ks values. We conclude that 1) volume overload produced by severe mitral regurgitation does not trigger substantial increases in the rate of protein synthesis and 2) the modest increase in LV mass results primarily from a decrease in the rate of protein degradation.

Non-NASA Center↗

Digitalization Guiding Principles and Method for Nuclear Industry Work Processes

The commercial U.S. light-water reactor fleet has been operating at historical efficiency, reliability, and safety over the last decade. Nuclear power has the highest capacity factor of any other power generation technology while also serving as the largest baseload source for carbon-free energy. Despite this remarkable achievement, continued operations for many plants are threatened due to fierce electricity market competition and rising operations and maintenance costs of which continued maintenance of obsolete analog equipment is a contributor. The digital age and associated technologies are where the future lies in process control, and nuclear has yet to take full advantage of the capabilities offered therein. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRS) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), sponsored by the Department of Energy, has a mission to help the light-water reactor fleet manage its foundational capabilities to continue providing safe and reliable carbon-free power. LWRS helps support that mission by providing scientific, technology-based solutions for advanced concepts of operations with a more viable business model that will allow the fleet to continue to operate at peak levels through extended plant operation. The LWRS Digitalization Project at INL seeks to leverage digital technologies to synthesize and transform work processes. We provide a state-of-the-art analysis of digitalized work processes in nuclear power and investigate ways in which researchers at INL and the nuclear industry can work together to identify what data to access, how to access it, what to do with the data, and most importantly, how to use the insights for decision-making across all levels within the business. Borne from these considerations, we present four guiding principles for digitalization: develop a coherent digitalization plan, apply human factors engineering, establish data governance, and anticipate unintended consequences. Together, these principles form a method that plants can use to effectively to digitalize nuclear industry work processes. Our guiding principles are informed by multiple knowledge sources. First, we document activities from the Work Digitalization Initiative, which was conceived as a means for nuclear organizations to help define and standardize the industry’s approach to digitalizing work. Second, we detail primary research conducted with industry professionals regarding drivers and barriers to digitalization adoption. We present survey results that demonstrate what the industry hopes to get out of digitalization and the ways that INL can continue to support the industry’s digital transformation. Third, we present a digitalization use case with industry partners NextAxiom Technology and Xcel Energy. The project objective was to transform the current condition report work process from paper to digital, incorporating digitalized principles. We report the development of the application and lessons learned. The accomplishments achieved by this research and development serve to identify critical needs for plant guidance in support of digitalization implementation and contribute to the knowledge and strategies available for utilities considering or undertaking digitalization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications

The report "High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications" documents the work conducted at UTRC under the NRA Contract NNC08CB03C, with cost share 2/3 NASA, and 1/3 UTRC, that has been extended to 4.5 years. The purpose of this effort was to identify key technical barriers to advancing the state-of-the-art of small centrifugal compressor stages; to delineate the measurements required to provide insight into the flow physics of the technical barriers; to design, fabricate, install, and test a state-of-the-art research compressor that is representative of the rear stage of an axial-centrifugal aero-engine; and to acquire detailed aerodynamic performance and research quality data to clarify flow physics and to establish detailed data sets for future application. The design activity centered on meeting the goal set outlined in the NASA solicitation-the design target was to increase efficiency at higher work factor, while also reducing the maximum diameter of the stage. To fit within the existing Small Engine Components Test Facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and to facilitate component re-use, certain key design parameters were fixed by UTRC, including impeller tip diameter, impeller rotational speed, and impeller inlet hub and shroud radii. This report describes the design effort of the High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage (HECC) and delineation of measurements, fabrication of the compressor, and the initial tests that were performed. A new High-Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage with a very challenging reduction in radius ratio was successfully designed, fabricated and installed at GRC. The testing was successful, with no mechanical problems and the running clearances were achieved without impeller rubs. Overall, measured pressure ratio of 4.68, work factor of 0.81, and at design exit corrected flow rate of 3 lbm/s met the target requirements. Polytropic efficiency of 85.5 percent and stall margin of 7.5 percent were measured at design flow rate and speed. The measured efficiency and stall margin were lower than pre-test CFD predictions by 2.4 percentage points (pt) and 4.5 pt, respectively. Initial impressions from the experimental data indicated that the loss in the efficiency and stall margin can be attributed to a design shortfall in the impeller. However, detailed investigation of experimental data and post-test CFD simulations of higher fidelity than pre-test CFD, and in particular the unsteady CFD simulations and the assessment with a wider range of turbulence models, have indicated that the loss in efficiency is most likely due to the impact of unfavorable unsteady impeller/diffuser interactions induced by diffuser vanes, an impeller/diffuser corrected flow-rate mismatch (and associated incidence levels), and, potentially, flow separation in the radial-to-axial bend. An experimental program with a vaneless diffuser is recommended to evaluate this observation. A subsequent redesign of the diffuser (and the radial-to-axial bend) is also recommended. The diffuser needs to be redesigned to eliminate the mismatching of the impeller and the diffuser, targeting a slightly higher flow capacity. Furthermore, diffuser vanes need to be adjusted to align the incidence angles, to optimize the splitter vane location (both radially and circumferentially), and to minimize the unsteady interactions with the impeller. The radial-to-axial bend needs to be redesigned to eliminate, or at least minimize, the flow separation at the inner wall, and its impact on the flow in the diffuser upstream. Lessons were also learned in terms of CFD methodology and the importance of unsteady CFD simulations for centrifugal compressors was highlighted. Inconsistencies in the implementation of a widely used two-equation turbulence model were identified and corrections are recommended. It was also observed that unsteady simulations for centrifugal compressors require significantly longer integration times than what is current practice in industry.

Gorazd Medic↗

High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications

The report "High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications" documents the work conducted at UTRC under the NRA Contract NNC08CB03C, with cost share 2/3 NASA, and 1/3 UTRC, that has been extended to 4.5 years. The purpose of this effort was to identify key technical barriers to advancing the state-of-the-art of small centrifugal compressor stages; to delineate the measurements required to provide insight into the flow physics of the technical barriers; to design, fabricate, install, and test a state-of-the-art research compressor that is representative of the rear stage of an axial-centrifugal aero-engine; and to acquire detailed aerodynamic performance and research quality data to clarify flow physics and to establish detailed data sets for future application. The design activity centered on meeting the goal set outlined in the NASA solicitation-the design target was to increase efficiency at higher work factor, while also reducing the maximum diameter of the stage. To fit within the existing Small Engine Components Test Facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and to facilitate component re-use, certain key design parameters were fixed by UTRC, including impeller tip diameter, impeller rotational speed, and impeller inlet hub and shroud radii. This report describes the design effort of the High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage (HECC) and delineation of measurements, fabrication of the compressor, and the initial tests that were performed. A new High-Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage with a very challenging reduction in radius ratio was successfully designed, fabricated and installed at GRC. The testing was successful, with no mechanical problems and the running clearances were achieved without impeller rubs. Overall, measured pressure ratio of 4.68, work factor of 0.81, and at design exit corrected flow rate of 3 lbm/s met the target requirements. Polytropic efficiency of 85.5 percent and stall margin of 7.5 percent were measured at design flow rate and speed. The measured efficiency and stall margin were lower than pre-test CFD predictions by 2.4 percentage points (pt) and 4.5 pt, respectively. Initial impressions from the experimental data indicated that the loss in the efficiency and stall margin can be attributed to a design shortfall in the impeller. However, detailed investigation of experimental data and post-test CFD simulations of higher fidelity than pre-test CFD, and in particular the unsteady CFD simulations and the assessment with a wider range of turbulence models, have indicated that the loss in efficiency is most likely due to the impact of unfavorable unsteady impeller/diffuser interactions induced by diffuser vanes, an impeller/diffuser corrected flow-rate mismatch (and associated incidence levels), and, potentially, flow separation in the radial-to-axial bend. An experimental program with a vaneless diffuser is recommended to evaluate this observation. A subsequent redesign of the diffuser (and the radial-to-axial bend) is also recommended. The diffuser needs to be redesigned to eliminate the mismatching of the impeller and the diffuser, targeting a slightly higher flow capacity. Furthermore, diffuser vanes need to be adjusted to align the incidence angles, to optimize the splitter vane location (both radially and circumferentially), and to minimize the unsteady interactions with the impeller. The radial-to-axial bend needs to be redesigned to eliminate, or at least minimize, the flow separation at the inner wall, and its impact on the flow in the diffuser upstream. Lessons were also learned in terms of CFD methodology and the importance of unsteady CFD simulations for centrifugal compressors was highlighted. Inconsistencies in the implementation of a widely used two-equation turbulence model were identified and corrections are recommended. It was also observed that unsteady simulations for centrifugal compressors require significantly longer integration times than what is current practice in industry.

Gorazd Medic↗

High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications

The report "High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications" documents the work conducted at UTRC under the NRA Contract NNC08CB03C, with cost share 2/3 NASA, and 1/3 UTRC, that has been extended to 4.5 years. The purpose of this effort was to identify key technical barriers to advancing the state-of-the-art of small centrifugal compressor stages; to delineate the measurements required to provide insight into the flow physics of the technical barriers; to design, fabricate, install, and test a state-of-the-art research compressor that is representative of the rear stage of an axial-centrifugal aero-engine; and to acquire detailed aerodynamic performance and research quality data to clarify flow physics and to establish detailed data sets for future application. The design activity centered on meeting the goal set outlined in the NASA solicitation-the design target was to increase efficiency at higher work factor, while also reducing the maximum diameter of the stage. To fit within the existing Small Engine Components Test Facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and to facilitate component re-use, certain key design parameters were fixed by UTRC, including impeller tip diameter, impeller rotational speed, and impeller inlet hub and shroud radii. This report describes the design effort of the High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage (HECC) and delineation of measurements, fabrication of the compressor, and the initial tests that were performed. A new High-Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage with a very challenging reduction in radius ratio was successfully designed, fabricated and installed at GRC. The testing was successful, with no mechanical problems and the running clearances were achieved without impeller rubs. Overall, measured pressure ratio of 4.68, work factor of 0.81, and at design exit corrected flow rate of 3 lbm/s met the target requirements. Polytropic efficiency of 85.5 percent and stall margin of 7.5 percent were measured at design flow rate and speed. The measured efficiency and stall margin were lower than pre-test CFD predictions by 2.4 percentage points (pt) and 4.5 pt, respectively. Initial impressions from the experimental data indicated that the loss in the efficiency and stall margin can be attributed to a design shortfall in the impeller. However, detailed investigation of experimental data and post-test CFD simulations of higher fidelity than pre-test CFD, and in particular the unsteady CFD simulations and the assessment with a wider range of turbulence models, have indicated that the loss in efficiency is most likely due to the impact of unfavorable unsteady impeller/diffuser interactions induced by diffuser vanes, an impeller/diffuser corrected flow-rate mismatch (and associated incidence levels), and, potentially, flow separation in the radial-to-axial bend. An experimental program with a vaneless diffuser is recommended to evaluate this observation. A subsequent redesign of the diffuser (and the radial-to-axial bend) is also recommended. The diffuser needs to be redesigned to eliminate the mismatching of the impeller and the diffuser, targeting a slightly higher flow capacity. Furthermore, diffuser vanes need to be adjusted to align the incidence angles, to optimize the splitter vane location (both radially and circumferentially), and to minimize the unsteady interactions with the impeller. The radial-to-axial bend needs to be redesigned to eliminate, or at least minimize, the flow separation at the inner wall, and its impact on the flow in the diffuser upstream. Lessons were also learned in terms of CFD methodology and the importance of unsteady CFD simulations for centrifugal compressors was highlighted. Inconsistencies in the implementation of a widely used two-equation turbulence model were identified and corrections are recommended. It was also observed that unsteady simulations for centrifugal compressors require significantly longer integration times than what is current practice in industry.

Centrifugal compressor↗

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Runway Configuration Management with Offline Reinforcement Learning

Runway configuration management (RCM) is a challenging task, and it affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and airport surface operations significantly. Each airport, depending on the geometry, capacity, local climate patterns, etc. has multiple configurations for the runway usage for arriving and departing flights. Many factors such as the incoming/outgoing traffic load, wind direction and speed, convective weather, cloud ceiling and other environmental factors might affect the choice of a runway configuration at any point in time. However, other factors such as safety measures and regulations, noise abatement, capacity of each configuration, and preference of the air traffic controllers (ATCs) can also play a significant role in selecting the configuration. A sub-optimal selection of the runway configuration, or delay in making configuration changes might result in significant increase in taxi times for aircraft on the surface of the airport, fuel and energy use of the aircraft, and maintenance costs. It can also lead to safety concerns, such as an aircraft performing one or more go-arounds before being able to land. All these factors make RCM an extremely important and challenging decision-making process for the ATCs. The current state of practice sets the runway configuration by the ATCs based on relevant information available at the time including weather, traffic, noise abatement, safety bounds, etc. This makes the decision-making process subjective based on the accuracy of the available information and the bias in human decision making. Unfortunately, this approach yields poor results (e.g., significant delays) if the predicted outcomes are uncertain and their relative impact is not well understood. This is especially evident when the uncertainty increases the size of possible predicted outcomes (combinatorial explosion in possible scenarios) that cannot be handled by human reasoning. On the other hand, an automated approach based on machine intelligence can make use of historical data and search through all (or significant amount of) possible scenarios under uncertainty and make well-informed decisions.

Milad Memarzadeh↗

The Spacecraft Materials Selector: An Artificial Intelligence System for Preliminary Design Trade Studies, Materials Assessments, and Estimates of Environments Present

Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.

Pippin, H. G.↗

Assessment of the 60 Km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) with Near Real-Time Aircraft Reports

NASA is developing the Center-TBACON Advisory System (CTAS), a set of Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) to enable controllers to increase airspace capacity and flight efficiency. A crucial component of the CTAS, or any ATM DST, is the computation of the time-of-flight of aircraft along flight path segments which requires accurate knowledge of the wind through which the aircraft are flying. CTAS currently uses wind information from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a numerical prediction model run operationally by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There exists near real-time wind observations from commercial aircraft that can be used to increase the accuracy of the RUC wind forecasts via the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminal Winds (TW) algorithm. This report presents a study based on the application of the ITWS TW algorithm as an improvement to the baseline RUC product. Terminal Winds generally does not support the full Center airspace; the domain of the prototype MIT/LLITWS TW system was increased to cover the Denver Center airspace to support this study. This study has three goals: 1) determine the errors in the baseline 60-kilometer resolution RUC forecast wind fields relative to the needs of en route DSTs such as CTAS; 2) determine the benefit of using the TW algorithm to refine the RUC forecast wind fields with near real-tlme Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) aircraft reports, and 3) identify factors that influence wind field errors in order to improve accuracy and estimate errors in real time. The data for this study were collected over a one-year period for the Denver Center airspace and over one miIlion verification observations were used. This study is part of a larger effort funded by NASA which includes the NOAA/FSL.

Cole, R. E.↗

Assessing the Relationships Between Sensorimotor Biomarkers and Post-Landing Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study is to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on a set of sensorimotor tasks. Astronauts are recruited who previously participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography soon after long-duration spaceflight. Behavioral tests include assessments of sensory dependency and adaptability. Visual dependency involves treadmill walking while viewing a moving virtual visual scene. Vestibular thresholds are measured while seated during lateral translations. Proprioception dependency is measured during one-legged stance on a horizontal air-bearing surface. Ground assessment of adaptability is performed (1) during treadmill walking with a virtual linear hallway and a moving walking surface, and (2) during multiple trials of navigating an obstacle course while wearing reversing prisms. The neuroimaging tests will characterize individual differences in regional brain volumes (using Structural MRI) and white matter microstructure (using Diffusion Tensor Imaging) to serve as potential predictors of adaptive capacity. The genetic tests will utilize saliva samples to examine variations in four genes chosen because of their ability to differentiate sensorimotor adaptation ability in a normative population, including Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), Dopamine Receptor D2 (DRD2), Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and the α2-adrenergic receptor. Twenty-one ISS crewmembers have been tested to date, including 6 from this past year after testing resumed post-COVID. This cohort includes 9 first-time fliers, 4F, and mission durations lasting 182 ± 32 days, mean ± std. We are utilizing a combination of three post-flight functional task outcomes: tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography. There is considerable variability among the post-flight performance outcomes for the 21 participants to date. Based on a partial sample using an ordinal scale survey, 80% indicated their ability to perform functional tasks were more impacted postflight relative to inflight with 50% indicating they needed to restrict movements for a longer period postflight relative to inflight. While there is a strong association within tests obtained at different R+0 timepoints, by R+24 hr performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. There are apparent relationships between individual measures and specific post-flight outcome measures; however, additional data is needed to draw conclusions. Preliminary statistical analysis indicates combining biomarkers will increase predictive power and this will be explored with future analyses. Our preliminary findings underscore the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. We expect that understanding the relationships between these sensorimotor biomarkers and post-flight functional task performance will improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

S J Wood↗