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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Sorbent-Based Direct Air Capture Informed by EPC Input and Recent Technological Advancements

Direct air capture (DAC) technology has been developing at an accelerated rate. Independent, comprehensive, and transparent techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of DAC technologies are required to inform future development. NETL is publishing an update to the 2022 sorbent-based DAC case study report. This manuscript highlights select TEA results that will be presented in the upcoming NETL report. The analysis considers three sorbent-based DAC system configurations (direct steam temperature swing, indirect steam temperature swing, and direct steam temperature/vacuum swing) and two scenarios for providing the required electricity and steam (stand-alone system with a combined heat and power plant generating the required steam and electricity, and a purchased power case utilizing an electric boiler). Detailed sensitivity analyses are included and highlight the impact of external market factors, sorbent performance, and economies of scale. The potential for cost reductions by opting for temperature vacuum swing adsorption is highlighted. More detailed background and TEA results will be presented in the upcoming NETL report titled “Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System (Revision 1)”.

carbon dioxide removal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol-induced closure of marine cloud cells: enhanced effects in the presence of precipitation

Abstract. The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) version 4.3 model is configured within a Lagrangian framework to quantify the impact of aerosols on evolving cloud fields. Kilometer-scale simulations utilizing meteorological boundary conditions are based on 10 case study days offering diverse meteorology during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA). Measurements from aircraft, the ground-based Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) site at Graciosa Island in the Azores, and A-Train and geostationary satellites are utilized for validation, demonstrating good agreement with the WRF-simulated cloud and aerosol properties. Higher aerosol concentration leads to suppressed drizzle and increased cloud water content in all case study days. These changes lead to larger radiative cooling rates at cloud top, enhanced vertical velocity variance, and increased vertical and horizontal wind speed near the base of the lower-tropospheric inversion. As a result, marine cloud cell area expands, narrowing the gap between shallow clouds and increasing cloud optical thickness, liquid water content, and the top-of-atmosphere outgoing shortwave flux. While similar aerosol effects are observed in lightly to non-raining clouds, they tend to be smaller by comparison. These simulations show a relationship between cloud cell area expansion and the radiative adjustments caused by liquid water path and cloud fraction changes. The adjustments are positive and scale as 74 % and 51 %, respectively, relative to the Twomey effect. While higher-resolution large-eddy simulations may provide improved representation of cloud-top mixing processes, these results emphasize the importance of addressing mesoscale cloud-state transitions in the quantification of aerosol radiative forcing that cannot be attained from traditional climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Noise-aware optimization in nominally identical manufacturing and measuring systems for high-throughput parallel workflows

Device-to-device variability in experimental noise critically impacts reproducibility, especially in automated, high-throughput systems like additive manufacturing farms. While manageable in small labs, such variability can escalate into serious risks at larger scales, such as architectural 3D printing, where noise may cause structural or economic failures. This contribution presents a noise-aware decision-making algorithm that quantifies and models device-specific noise profiles to manage variability adaptively. It uses distributional analysis and pairwise divergence metrics with clustering to choose between single-device and robust multi-device Bayesian optimization strategies. Unlike conventional methods that assume homogeneous devices or enforce generic robustness, the proposed framework explicitly determines whether shared optimization across devices is appropriate based on the degree of inter-device noise heterogeneity. This enables improved performance, reproducibility, and efficiency. An experimental case study involving three nominally identical 3D printers (same brand, model, and close serial numbers) demonstrates reduced redundancy, lower resource usage, and improved reliability, along with improved convergence stability and solution quality through the selection of the appropriate optimization strategy based on the degree of inter-device noise heterogeneity. Overall, this framework establishes a general approach for precision- and resource-aware optimization in scalable, automated experimental platforms, demonstrated here on a representative multi-device 3D printing case study.

Schenk, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2026

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗
DOE OSTI2026

Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Support of Adhesion Mechanisms in Al 2 O 3 Aerosol Deposition Through Laser-Induced Particle Impact Testing

Aerosol deposition (AD) is a kinetic spray process capable of depositing ceramic coatings at room temperature, but AD process development is generally a laborious exploration of a large process parameter space. Here, this paper presents a case study investigating whether laser-induced particle impact testing (LIPIT) could be applied to expedite development of an alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) coating on nickel (Ni): Specifically, whether LIPIT measurements could predict critical velocities of adhesion on Ni and Al 2 O 3 , and the effect of ball milling the Al 2 O 3 powder. Because LIPIT has a diffraction-limited lower bound on imageable particle size, the usefulness of Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates as a proxy for single particles was additionally studied. Overall, LIPIT measurements and AD sprays agreed that ball milling dramatically improves adhesion. Additionally, LIPIT measurements of critical velocity of adhesion of Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates on Ni and Al 2 O 3 substrates (150 meters per second [m/s] and 250 m/s, respectively) quantitatively agreed with predictions from a previously published model based on picoindentation and molecular dynamics simulations. Together, these findings support the established hypothesis that Al 2 O 3 adheres via a dislocation-mediated mechanism in AD, that Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates adhere as individual constituent particles rather than collectively, and that, for this case study, LIPIT measurements were predictive of AD process parameters.

Al2O3↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advances in supervisory control strategies for a heat pump centric HVAC system − a comprehensive review on applications

There is an increase in research investigating the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that enable high efficiency electrically driven vapor compression heat pumps operating within grid interactive efficient buildings to provide demand side management. This paper reviews over sixty relevant case studies within this domain that focus on commercial off-the-shelf heat pumps whose primary task is providing space conditioning. The concept of a heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system is introduced, accompanied by a detailed overview of various kinds of electric heat pumps and building-level thermal energy storage configurations. Additionally, the different types of supervisory controller designs, including rule-based control and model predictive control, are discussed, along with the various methods for communication between a supervisory controller and a downstream heat pump’s local controller. A comparative analysis is conducted in order to categorize the reviewed case studies based on their system design, supervisory control algorithm, and validation methodology. This detailed analysis allows the review to establish current research trends, identify potential gaps, and suggest future directions for the development of this technology. Overall, the authors recommend that more future research be devoted to low-cost practical retrofits that allow for easy integration of active thermal energy storage within heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system systems that utilize direct expansion heat pumps. We also suggest more research into the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that can properly communicate with commercial off-the-shelf heat pump local controller available control inputs, e.g., zone temperature setpoint. Lastly, more rigorous experimental demonstrations of advanced supervisory control within real and or closed-loop, transient/ quasi-steady state environments are necessary to reduce industry wide skepticism of this technology.

Demand side management↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Sizing and Modeling Platform for District Energy Systems with Geothermal Heat Pumps

Existing tools for community or urban scale energy system modeling and simulation are often limited in their capabilities and require expert-level modeling proficiency to develop system models. To fill this gap, this paper proposes an integrated sizing and modeling platform for district energy systems with geothermal heat pumps. The proposed platform takes in geometric and non-geometric user inputs related to the buildings, borefield, and district energy loop. Then, the platform sizes the geothermal heat exchanger, generates a corresponding district energy system model, and runs an annual simulation automatically. We validated the simulation performance of the borefield in our tool against EnergyPlus. A case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the workflow and simulation result plausibility of the proposed platform.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Transposon Signatures of Allopolyploid Genome Evolution

Hybridization brings together chromosome sets from two or more distinct progenitor species. Genome duplication associated with hybridization, or allopolyploidy, allows these chromosome sets to persist as distinct subgenomes during subsequent meioses. Here, we present a general method for identifying the subgenomes of a polyploid based on shared ancestry as revealed by the genomic distribution of repetitive elements that were active in the progenitors. This subgenome-enriched transposable element signal is intrinsic to the polyploid, allowing broader applicability than other approaches that depend on the availability of sequenced diploid relatives. We develop the statistical basis of the method, demonstrate its applicability in the well-studied cases of tobacco, cotton, and Brassica napus, and apply it to several cases: allotetraploid cyprinids, allohexaploid false flax, and allooctoploid strawberry. These analyses provide insight into the origins of these polyploids, revise the subgenome identities of strawberry, and provide perspective on subgenome dominance in higher polyploids.

Genomics↗
DOE OSTI2025

EMT-TS Hybrid Simulation for Large Power Grids Considering IBR-Driven Dynamics

The escalating integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) poses new challenges to power systems by introducing fast dynamics with higher frequencies, which may need to be simulated by an electromagnetic transient (EMT) program. As an alternative to conducting EMT simulations for the entire system, which is typically time consuming, hybrid simulation between EMT and phasor-domain transient stability (TS) can greatly reduce the computational burden while preserving the detailed fast dynamics in the EMT zone. This paper establishes an EMT-TS hybrid simulation platform using open-source tools, specifically ParaEMT, GridPACK, and HELICS, which are the EMT simulator, TS simulator, and interface framework, respectively. Case studies on the 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system demonstrate that the developed ParaEMT-HELICS-GridPACK hybrid simulator can accurately capture both slow electromechanical and fast IBR-driven dynamics with a 2.4x speedup.

electromagnetic transient↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Sediment Management and Monitoring Database

Overview This dataset compiles dam sediment management and monitoring information from surveys, case studies, and journal articles. Additionally, features described by the National Inventory of Dams (i.e., presence of sluice gates) are included to indicate known infrastructure features that may address sediment releases. The location and description of records from downstream monitoring gages are catalogued in order to help with tracking conditions over time (e.g., before and after management actions, as operations change, etc.). The data help address national scale understanding of challenges and solutions related to the accumulation of sediment behind a dam as well as downstream passage. Sediment trapping causes problems as it reduces storage capacity, disrupts dam and reservoir function, impedes access for recreation, alters water quality/habitat conditions, and contributes to riverbank and coastal erosion within the reservoir. Data compilation from a variety of sources is a first step towards assessing system-wide efficacy of management solutions. This dataset was developed under the Water Power Technologies Office funded effort which began as a Seedling on Reservoir Sedimentation Data, and was supported by the Reservoir Sedimentation Modeling Framework and Data Analysis project. These projects have addressed challenges in describing sediment transport, trapping, and management at dams throughout the US. Methodology An outer join on dams/reservoirs with surveys and survey reports (documented in the RESSED database, USBR or USACE databases, project websites, etc.) with the National Inventory of Dams, based on the NIDID to determine dams with documented management and/or sluice gates. Additional dams with documented management activity were identified through review of technical articles from the past 25 years in Journal of Hydrology, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Geomorphology, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Water, Journal of Cleaner Production, International Journal of Sediment Research, Nature Scientific Reports, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, and Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Individual records were created for each survey or management activity documented. To evaluate downstream sediment monitoring records, the nhdPlusTools and dataRetrieval packages in R were used to find gages within 10km of each dam in the management database. Length of record and location of matched gages were retrieved for those parameters relevant to sediment concentration or total sediment discharge.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Vertical Federated Machine Learning Against Adversarial Threats on Wide-Area Control System: Preprint

Federated machine learning (FL) is gaining significant popularity to develop cybersecurity solutions in power grids because of its advanced capability to support decentralized data handing at local devices, its privacy preservation, and its low-bandwidth requirement. However, the evolving adversarial machine learning (AML) threats raise significant concerns for the cybersecurity of FL architectures. The FL-based split neural network (SplitNN) achieves high performance through the decentralized training of local neural network models while preserving data privacy across multiple entities. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating the performance of a vertical FLbased anomaly detector against different types of AML attacks, including denial-of-service attacks, adversarial data injection attacks, and replay attacks on the trained local models deployed in the grid network. For a case study, we consider the modified IEEE 13-bus system, and we develop SplitNN-based binary and multiclass classification models to detect, locate, and identify different types of data integrity attacks on the volt-watt control with two pooling layers: maximum pooling and AvgPool. Our experimental results, computed through performance metrics, reveal that the severity of these AML attacks varies with the integrated pooling mechanism, the type of classification model, and the nature of the cyberattack. Further, the AML attacks negatively impacted the prediction time per sample for the pretrained SplitNN during the online testing.

adversarial threats↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Energy Physics Network Requirements Review: Final Report, July 2024–December 2024

The world-class research infrastructure at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) provides the research community with premier observational, experimental, computational, and network capabilities. Each user facility is designed to provide unique capabilities to advance the core DOE mission in science and technology for its SC program to stimulate rich scientific discoveries and enhance its innovation ecosystem. Research communities gather and flourish around each user facility, bringing together new and enhanced perspectives. The continual reinvention of the practice of science — as users and staff forge novel approaches expressed in research workflows — unlocks new discoveries and propels scientific progress. Within this research ecosystem, the high-performance computing (HPC) and networking user facilities stewarded by the SC’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program play a dynamic cross-cutting role, enabling complex workflows demanding high-performance data, networking, and computing solutions. The ASCR facilities enterprise seeks to understand and meet the needs and requirements across SC and DOE domain science programs and priority efforts, highlighted by the formal requirements review methodology. Between July and December 2024, the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) and the Office of High Energy Physics (HEP) of the DOE-SC organized an ESnet requirements review of HEP-supported program activities. Preparation for these events included identification of key stakeholders: program and facility management, research groups, and technology providers. Each stakeholder group was asked to prepare formal case study documents about its relationship to the HEP program to build a complete understanding of the current, near-term, and long-term status, expectations, and processes that will support the science going forward.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗