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At least 415 records · Page 23

Larval connectivity for European green crab management in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters

The presence of invasive species is a growing concern in coastal marine ecosystems because of their adverse effects on biodiversity. The European green crab Carcinus maenas (EGC) is a small crab inhabiting inshore areas. Although it is native to the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, its distribution has expanded to North America, where it is an invasive species. Its main food sources are small invertebrate species that support valuable fisheries in the USA. The first presence of EGC in northern Washington was observed around 20 yr ago, along the Pacific Coast of the USA. Recently, EGC has been detected throughout the Salish Sea (Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada) wherein spread dynamics are unknown. The overall distribution of EGC is mainly driven by larval dispersal and, in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, the assessment of EGC population dynamics is essential to understand its migration patterns and prevent its future expansion. To investigate the dispersal patterns of EGC larvae, a larval dispersal model was developed which couples a regional model of hydrodynamic circulation with an individual-based model of ichthyoplankton dynamics. Simulations were performed over 9 yr (2013-2022) to analyze average larval transport trends in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, interannual variability of EGC larval connectivity, and the influence of larval behavior on connectivity patterns. Lastly, areas were identified to inform invasive species management moving forward. The prediction of likely sources and settlement locations of EGC larvae from the model will help improve the management of the population in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Toward the credibility of Northeast United States summer precipitation projections in CMIP5 and NARCCAP simulations

Abstract Precipitation projections for the northeast United States and nearby Canada (Northeast) are examined for 15 Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. A process‐based evaluation of atmospheric circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers is performed to examine whether credibility can be differentiated within the multimodel ensemble. Based on these evaluations, and an analysis of the interannual statistical properties of area‐averaged precipitation, model subsets were formed. Multimodel precipitation projections from each subset were compared to the multimodel projection from all of the models. Higher‐resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate models (RCMs) were subjected to a similar evaluation, grouping into subsets, and examination of future projections. CMIP5 models adequately simulate most large‐scale circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers, though all have errors in simulating observed sea level pressure and moisture divergence anomalies in the western tropical Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. Relevant large‐scale processes simulated by the RCMs resemble those of their driving global climate models (GCMs), which are not always realistic. Future RCM studies could benefit from a process analysis of potential driving GCMs prior to dynamical downscaling. No CMIP5 or NARCCAP models were identified as clearly more credible, but six GCMs and four RCMs performed consistently better. Among the “Better” models, there is no consistency in the direction of future summer precipitation change. CMIP5 projections suggest that the Northeast precipitation response depends on the dynamics of the North Atlantic anticyclone and associated circulation and moisture convergence patterns, which vary among “Better” models. Even when model credibility cannot be clearly differentiated, examination of simulated processes provides important insights into their evolution under greenhouse warming.

Thibeault, Jeanne M.↗

Dissecting the Roles of Stability and Dynamic Regimes in Tropical Cloud Feedbacks Simulated from an Upgraded Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF)

In this study, we analyze the tropical cloud feedback from a 2 K sea surface temperature perturbation experiment performed with a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). We sort the monthly-mean cloud and radiative properties according to circulation and stability regimes. It is found that the dynamic component of cloud feedback for a given dynamic regime dominates the thermodynamic component in terms of the absolute magnitude.

Kuan-Man Xu↗

Evaluating the Large-Scale Hydrological Cycle Response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

mid-Pliocene↗

Dynamic fatigue measurement of human erythrocytes using dielectrophoresis

Erythrocytes must undergo severe deformation to pass through narrow capillaries and submicronic splenic slits for several hundred thousand times in their normal lifespan. Studies of erythrocyte biomechanics have been mainly focused on cell deformability and rheology measured from a single application of stress and mostly under a static or quasi-static state using classical biomechanical techniques, such as optical tweezers and micropipette aspiration. Dynamic behavior of erythrocytes in response to cyclic stresses that contributes to the membrane failure in blood circulation is not fully understood. This article presents a new experimental method for dynamic fatigue analysis of erythrocytes, using amplitude modulated electrokinetic force field in a microfluidic platform. Here, we demonstrate the capability of this new technique using a low cycle fatigue analysis of normal human erythrocytes and ATP-depleted erythrocytes. Cyclic tensile stresses are generated to induce repeated uniaxial stretching and extensional recovery of single erythrocytes. Results of morphological and biomechanical parameters of individually tracked erythrocytes show strong correlations with the number of the loading cycles. Under a same strength of electric field, after 180 stress cycles, for normal erythrocytes, maximum stretch ratio decreases from 3.80 to 2.86, characteristic time of cellular extensional recovery increases from 0.16 s to 0.37 s, membrane shear viscosity increases from 1.0 (µN/m) s to 1.6 (µN/m) s. Membrane deformation in a small number of erythrocytes becomes irreversible after large deformation for about 200 cyclic loads. ATP-depleted cells show similar trends in decreased deformation and increased characteristic time with the loading cycles. Lastly, these results show proof of concept of the new microfluidics technique for dynamic fatigue analysis of human erythrocytes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SpaceX Dragon Air Circulation System

The Dragon capsule is a reusable vehicle being developed by Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) that will provide commercial cargo transportation to the International Space Station (ISS). Dragon is designed to be a habitable module while it is berthed to ISS. As such, the Dragon Environmental Control System (ECS) consists of pressure control and pressure equalization, air sampling, fire detection, illumination, and an air circulation system. The air circulation system prevents pockets of stagnant air in Dragon that can be hazardous to the ISS crew. In addition, through the inter-module duct, the air circulation system provides fresh air from ISS into Dragon. To utilize the maximum volume of Dragon for cargo packaging, the Dragon ECS air circulation system is designed around cargo rack optimization. At the same time, the air circulation system is designed to meet the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) inter-module and intra-module ventilation requirements and acoustic requirements. A flight like configuration of the Dragon capsule including the air circulation system was recently assembled for testing to assess the design for inter-module and intra-module ventilation and acoustics. The testing included the Dragon capsule, and flight configuration in the pressure section with cargo racks, lockers, all of the air circulation components, and acoustic treatment. The air circulation test was also used to verify the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Dragon capsule. The CFD model included the same Dragon internal geometry that was assembled for the test. This paper will describe the Dragon air circulation system design which has been verified by testing the system and with CFD analysis.

Hernandez, Brenda↗

Life cycles of transient planetary waves

In recent years there has been an increasing effort devoted to understanding the physical and dynamical processes that govern the global-scale circulation of the atmosphere. This effort has been motivated, in part, from: (1) a wealth of new satellite data; (2) an urgent need to assess the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbons on our climate; (3) an inadequate understanding of the interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere and the role that such interactions play in short and long-term climate variability; and (4) the realization that addressing changes in our global climate requires understanding the interactions among various components of the earth system. The research currently being carried out represents an effort to address some of these issues by carrying out studies that combine radiation, ozone, seasonal thermal forcing and dynamics. Satellite and ground-based data that is already available is being used to construct basic states for our analytical and numerical models. Significant accomplishments from 1991-1992 are presented and include the following: ozone-dynamics interaction; (2) periodic local forcing and low frequency variability; and (3) steady forcing and low frequency variability.

Nathan, Terrence↗

Analyzing Seasonal Forcing Mechanisms of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The meridional transport of heat, momentum, water, dust, trace species and gases is critical for the control of Mars’ climate. Though the nature and structure of the mean meridional circulation has been previously studied, questions remain regarding the seasonal forcing mechanisms, and the implications on the combined thermal and dynamical response for Mars’ climate. A useful diagnostic of the mean meridional circulation and transport in the middle atmosphere is polar warming.

Brecht, A. S.↗

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

Because of recent progress in satellite altimetry and numerical modeling and the accumulation and archiving of long records of hydrographic and meteorological variables, it is becoming feasible to describe and understand the transient general circulation of the ocean (i.e., variations with spatial scales larger than a few hundred kilometers and time scales of seasonal and longer-beyond the mesoscale). We have carried out various studies in investigation of the transient general circulation of the Pacific Ocean from a coordinated analysis of satellite altimeter data, historical hydrographic gauge data, scatterometer wind observations, reanalyzed operational wind fields, and a variety of ocean circulation models. Broadly stated, our goal was to achieve a phenomenological catalogue of different possible types of large-scale, low-frequency variability, as a context for understanding the observational record. The approach is to identify the simplest possible model from which particular observed phenomena can be isolated and understood dynamically and then to determine how well these dynamical processes are represented in more complex Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Research results have been obtained on Rossby wave propagation and transformation, oceanic intrinsic low-frequency variability, effects of surface gravity waves, pacific data analyses, OGCM formulation and developments, and OGCM simulations of forced variability.

McWilliams, James C.↗

Atmosphere dynamics in the equatorial meteor zone

The study of the atmospheric circulation of the Earth from its surface to the altitudes of 100 to 110 km is essential for establishing atmospheric motion regularities with a view toward perfecting weather forecasting. The main results of the Soviet equatorial meteor expedition (SEME) are presented. A continuous cycle of measurements was carried out. Considerable interdiurnal variation of the zonal component was observed. Importantly, in the meridional component, the prevalence of a two day component was established in the equatorial meteor zone for the first time. The pronounced westward motion of the atmosphere over the equator is noted. The SEME data analysis has shown that the meteor zone is characterized by flashes of intensity of the internal gravity waves and turbulence at highest instability moments of atmosphere due to tidal motion.

Kascheev, B. L.↗

Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast

The U.S. West Coast exhibits large variability of extreme precipitation during the boreal winter season (December–February). Understanding the large-scale forcing of such variability is important for improving prediction. This motivates analyses of the roles of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing and internal atmospheric variability on extreme precipitation on the U.S. West Coast. Observations, reanalysis products, and an ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. It is found that SST forcing only accounts for about 20% of the variance of both extreme and nonextreme precipitation in winter. Under SST forcing, extreme precipitation is associated with the Pacific–North American teleconnection, while nonextreme precipitation is associated with the North Pacific Oscillation. The remaining 80% of extreme precipitation variations can be explained by internal atmospheric dynamics featuring a circumglobal wave train with a cyclonic circulation located over the U.S. West Coast. The circumglobal teleconnection manifests from the mid- to high-latitude intrinsic variability, but it can also emanate from anomalous convection over the tropical western Pacific, with stronger tropical convection over the Maritime Continent setting the stage for more extreme precipitation in winter. Whether forced by SST or internal atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric rivers are a common and indispensable feature of the large-scale environment that produces concomitant extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast.

Dong, Lu↗

Synoptic/planetary-scale interactions and blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean

The central theme of this project has been the diagnosis of blocking anticyclogenesis and the corresponding interactions with synoptic-scale circulations. To that end an extensive investigation of the dynamics and energetics of a major blocking anticyclone and two upstream cyclones, all of which occurred over the North Atlantic Ocean and the United States in January 1979, was undertaken. Data for the study were provided by Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) 4 LAT by 5 LON FGGE analyses. The methodology has primarily focused on the diagnosis of circulation forcing mechanisms using the modified forms (referred to as the extended forms) of the height tendency and Zwack-Okossi equations developed by our research group. Calculations use routine second-order finite differencing with boundary layer fraction and sensible heating and latent heat release represented as parameterized quantities. Of particular interest are the latent heat release estimates, which combine convectional parameterized values with estimates derived from satellite IR data. The latter were obtained using an algorithm derived by Dr. Franklin R. Robertson of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Results are contained in project reports, theses and publications identified in previous review summaries and reports, and publications listed at the end of this summary. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented.

Smith, Phillip J.↗

Numerical simulation of the general circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

The atmospheric circulation of Titan is investigated with a general circulation model. The representation of the large-scale dynamics is based on a grid point model developed and used at Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique for climate studies. The code also includes an accurate representation of radiative heating and cooling by molecular gases and haze as well as a parametrization of the vertical turbulent mixing of momentum and potential temperature. Long-term simulations of the atmospheric circulation are presented. Starting from a state of rest, the model spontaneously produces a strong superrotation with prograde equatorial winds (i.e., in the same sense as the assumed rotation of the solid body) increasing from the surface to reach 100 m sec-1 near the 1-mbar pressure level. Those equatorial winds are in very good agreement with some indirect observations, especially those of the 1989 occultation of Star 28-Sgr by Titan. On the other hand, the model simulates latitudinal temperature contrasts in the stratosphere that are significantly weaker than those observed by Voyager 1 which, we suggest, may be partly due to the nonrepresentation of the spatial and temporal variations of the abundances of molecular species and haze. We present diagnostics of the simulated atmospheric circulation underlying the importance of the seasonal cycle and a tentative explanation for the creation and maintenance of the atmospheric superrotation based on a careful angular momentum budget.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings, such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗