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At least 415 records · Page 23

Mapping Oyster Reef Habitats in Mobile Bay

Oyster reefs around the world are declining rapidly, and although they haven t received as much attention as coral reefs, they are just as important to their local ecosystems and economies. Oyster reefs provide habitats for many species of fish, invertebrates, and crustaceans, as well as the next generations of oysters. Oysters are also harvested from many of these reefs and are an important segment of many local economies, including that of Mobile Bay, where oysters rank in the top five commercial marine species both by landed weight and by dollar value. Although the remaining Mobile Bay oyster reefs are some of the least degraded in the world, projected climate change could have dramatic effects on the health of these important ecosystems. The viability of oyster reefs depends on water depth and temperature, appropriate pH and salinity levels, and the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water. Projected increases in sea level, changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, and changes in pH resulting from increases in the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans could all affect the viability of oyster reefs in the future. Human activities such as dredging and unsustainable harvesting practices are also adversely impacting the oyster reefs. Fortunately, several projects are already under way to help rebuild or support existing or previously existing oyster reefs. The success of these projects will depend on the local effects of climate change on the current and potential habitats and man s ability to recognize and halt unsustainable harvesting practices. As the extent and health of the reefs changes, it will have impacts on the Mobile Bay ecosystem and economy, changing the resources available to the people who live there and to the rest of the country, since Mobile Bay is an important national source of seafood. This project identified potential climate change impacts on the oyster reefs of Mobile Bay, including the possible addition of newly viable habitats in the southeastern regions of the Bay.

Bolte, Danielle↗

Relationships between solar activity and climate change

The relationship between recurrent droughts in the High Plains of the United States and the double sunspot cycle is discussed in detail. It is suggested that high solar activity is generally related to an increase in meridional circulation and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter, and the effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Roberts, W. O.↗

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗

Is Solar Variability Reflected in the Nile River?

We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622-1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Nile's high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.

solar variability↗

Annual Greenland Accumulation Rates (2009-2012) from Airborne Snow Radar

Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor its surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Snow accumulation is the largest component of the ice sheet's surface mass balance, but in situ observations thereof are inherently sparse and models are difficult to evaluate at large scales. Here, we quantify recent Greenland accumulation rates using ultra-wideband (2-6.5 gigahertz) airborne snow radar data collected as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge between 2009 and 2012. We use a semi-automated method to trace the observed radiostratigraphy and then derive annual net accumulation rates for 2009-2012. The uncertainty in these radar-derived accumulation rates is on average 14 percent. A comparison of the radarderived accumulation rates and contemporaneous ice cores shows that snow radar captures both the annual and longterm mean accumulation rate accurately. A comparison with outputs from a regional climate model (MAR - Modele Atmospherique Regional for Greenland and vicinity) shows that this model matches radar-derived accumulation rates in the ice sheet interior but produces higher values over southeastern Greenland. Our results demonstrate that snow radar can efficiently and accurately map patterns of snow accumulation across an ice sheet and that it is valuable for evaluating the accuracy of surface mass balance models.

surface melt↗

Desert landforms of southwest Egypt: A basis for comparison with Mars

Geologic interpretations of The Gilf Kebir-Uweinat of Apollo-Soyuz photographs were verified. The photographs and LANDSAT images showed features reminiscent of those depicted by Mariner and Viking missions to Mars. These features were to better understand their morphologic analogs on Mars. It is indicated that climate change played a significant role in the formation of the eastern Sahara. It is also revealed that correlations between the eolian features in southwestern Egypt and the wind blown patterns on the surface of Mars result in a better understanding of eolian activity on both planets.

El-Baz, F.↗

Interpreting forest and grassland biome productivity utilizing nested scales of image resolution and biogeographical analysis

Data acquisition, initial site characterization, image and geographic information methods available, and brief evaluations of first-year for NASA's Thematic Mapper (TM) working group are presented. The TM and other spectral data are examined in order to relate local, intensive ecosystem research findings to estimates of carbon cycling rates over wide geographic regions. The effort is to span environments ranging from dry to moist climates and from good to poor site quality using the TM capability, with and without the inclusion of geographic information system (GIS) data, and thus to interpret the local spatial pattern of factors conditioning biomass or productivity. Twenty-eight TM data sets were acquired, archived, and evaluated. The ERDAS image processing and GIS system were installed on the microcomputer (PC-AT) and its capabilities are being investigated. The TM coverage of seven study areas were exported via ELAS software on the Prime to the ERDAS system. Statistical analysis procedures to be used on the spectral data are being identified.

Iverson, L. R.↗

Sensitivity of the boundary layer energy fluxes to forcing parameters in a simple climate model

Winter and summer surface temperatures and time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are calculated by utilizing the Saltzman-Ashe parameterization for boundary layer fluxes in a two-level static model. The results are found to agree with observed patterns. Within the framework of this simple model, sensitivity analyses of the time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are conducted. Based on these results some of the forcing parameters (such as the subsurface temperature, cloud cover, surface albedo, etc.) are arranged in a hierarchical order of importance. A generalized method of sensitivity analysis is also suggested.

Rao, M. S.↗

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Kim, Maeng-Ki↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

The HYSPIRI Decadal Survey Mission: Update on the Mission Concept and Science Objectives for Global Imaging Spectroscopy and Multi-Spectral Thermal Measurements

The NASA HyspIRI mission is planned to provide global solar reflected energy spectroscopic measurement of the terrestrial and shallow water regions of the Earth every 19 days will all measurements downlinked. In addition, HyspIRI will provide multi-spectral thermal measurements with a single band in the 4 micron region and seven bands in the 8 to 12 micron region with 5 day day/night coverage. A direct broadcast capability for measurement subsets is also planned. This HyspIRI mission is one of those designated in the 2007 National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey: Earth Science and Applications from Space. In the Decadal Survey, HyspIRI was recognized as relevant to a range of Earth science and science applications, including climate: "A hyperspectral sensor (e.g., FLORA) combined with a multispectral thermal sensor (e.g., SAVII) in low Earth orbit (LEO) is part of an integrated mission concept [described in Parts I and II] that is relevant to several panels, especially the climate variability panel." The HyspIRI science study group was formed in 2008 to evaluate and refine the mission concept. This group has developed a series of HyspIRI science objectives: (1) Climate: Ecosystem biochemistry, condition & feedback; spectral albedo; carbon/dust on snow/ice; biomass burning; evapotranspiration (2) Ecosystems: Global plant functional types, physiological condition, and biochemistry including agricultural lands (3) Fires: Fuel status, fire frequency, severity, emissions, and patterns of recovery globally (4) Coral reef and coastal habitats: Global composition and status (5) Volcanoes: Eruptions, emissions, regional and global impact (6) Geology and resources: Global distributions of surface mineral resources and improved understanding of geology and related hazards These objectives are achieved with the following measurement capabilities. The HyspIRI imaging spectrometer provides: full spectral coverage from 380 to 2500 at 10 nm sampling; 60 m spatial sampling with a 150 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial and shallow water regions every 19 days to provide seasonal cloud-free coverage of the terrestrial surface. The HyspIRI Multi-Spectral Thermal instrument provides: 8 spectral bands from 4 to 12 microns; 60 m spatial sampling with a 600 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial shallow water regions every 5 days (day/night) to provide nominally cloud-free monthly coverage. The HyspIRI mission also includes an on-board processing and direct broadcast capability, referred to as the Intelligent Payload Module (IPM), which will allow users with the appropriate antenna to download a subset of the HyspIRI data stream to a local ground station. These science and science application objectives are critical today and uniquely addressed by the combined imaging spectroscopy, thermal infrared measurements, and IPM direct broadcast capability of HyspIRI. Two key objectives are: (1) The global HyspIRI spectroscopic measurements of the terrestrial biosphere including vegetation composition and function to constrain and reduce the uncertainty in climate-carbon interactions and terrestrial biosphere feedback. (2) The global 8 band thermal measurements to provide improved constraint of fire related emissions. In this paper the current HyspIRI mission concept that has been reviewed and refined to its current level of maturity with a Data Products Symposium, Science Workshop and NASA HWorkshop is presented including traceability between the measurements and the science and science application objectives.

Green, Robert O.↗

Multi-property modeling of ocean basin carbon fluxes

The objectives of this project were to elucidate the causal mechanisms in some of the most important features of the global ocean/atomsphere carbon system. These included the interaction of physical and biological processes in the seasonal cycle of surface water pCo2, and links between productivity, surface chlorophyll, and the carbon cycle that would aid global modeling efforts. In addition, several other areas of critical scientific interest involving links between the marine biosphere and the global carbon cycle were successfully pursued; specifically, a possible relation between phytoplankton emitted DMS and climate, and a relation between the location of calcium carbonate burial in the ocean and metamorphic source fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Six published papers covering the following topics are summarized: (1) Mass extinctions, atmospheric sulphur and climatic warming at the K/T boundary; (2) Sensitivity of climate and atmospheric CO2 to deep-ocean and shallow-ocean carbonate burial; (3) Controls on CO2 sources and sinks in the earthscale surface ocean; (4) pre-anthropogenic, earthscale patterns of delta pCO2 between ocean and atmosphere; (5) Effect on atmospheric CO2 from seasonal variations in the high latitude ocean; and (6) Limitations or relating ocean surface chlorophyll to productivity.

Volk, Tyler↗

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗

Evaluation of the Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the NASA GEOS Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Emission sources of trace gases and aerosol particles in the South American (SA)and African (Af) continents have a strong seasonal and space variability associated with the extensive vegetation fires activities. In both continents, during the austral winter, the fires affect mainly tropical forest and savannah-type biomes and are mostly associated with deforestation and agricultural/pasture land management. Smoke aerosol particles, on average, contribute to at least 90% of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible spectrum in the case of the South America regional smoke. Smoke aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei affecting cloud microphysics properties and therefore, changing the radiation budget, hydrological cycle and global circulation patterns over disturbed areas (Kaufman, 1995; Rosenfeld, 1999; Andreae,et al., 2004; Koren et al., 2004, Zhang, 2008; Ott et al., 2010; Randles et al., 2013). This study aims to evaluate and quantify the impact of including a comprehensive emission field of biomass burning aerosol on the performance of a seasonal climate forecast system, not only regarding the AOD itself but mainly on the meteorological state variable (e.g., precipitation and temperature). To address the questions put above, we designed two numerical experiments: 1- named"AERO_CTL" which applies the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED) emissions estimated with intra-diurnal variation (hereafter, BBE), and 2- named "AERO_CLM" where the sourcee mission is based on a climatology of the QFED emissions, with only monthly variation(hereafter, BBCLIM). Hindcast simulations were produced using the Goddard Earth ObservingSystem global circulation model, version 5, sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS5-S2S) system with a nominal spatial resolution of 56km (Rienecker et al., 2008). In both experiments, the aerosol feedbacks from cloud developments and radiation interactions were accounted. The two experiments consisted of 4 members each and ran from June to November spanning over the years 2000 to 2015. Model performance was evaluated by calculating statistical metrics on the mean area of SA and Af. Our results demonstrated that the skill model in predicting AOD is significantly improve when BBE source emission is applied over SA, but not over the Afcontinent. Over SA, the correlation between the AERO_CTL model configuration and MERRA-2 is 0.93 (R2= 0.86, RMS=0.02, BIAS=0.01), while the AERO_CLM model presents a value of0.81 (R2= 0.65, RMS=0.04, BIAS=0.06). However, the AERO_CTL experiment better represents the inter-annual variability of the AOS in both regions. The gain of the skill in predicting the AOD by the AERO_CTL experiment is also seen in some meteorological variables. We observed an increase in the model skill in predicting the 2-meter temperature and precipitation of up to 0.3 for the AERO_CTL experiment in comparison to the AERO_CLM. AERO_CLM. According to the analyzed hindcast, we inferred that representing the BBE more realistically implies in a significant gain of skills in the seasonal climate forecasting over SA and Af continents.

Aerosol↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-21193-DND

Researchers at NASA Langley Research Center have been developing an automated pattern recognition algorithm to identify overshooting convective cloud tops (OTs) in support of the GOES-R satellite program. This algorithm identify regions of overshooting at the individual 1-4 km geostationary satellite pixel scale using visible (during daytime only) and infrared channel imagery and numerical weather analysis data. The algorithm has been developed based upon analysis of 0.25-1 km spatial resolution Aqua MODIS imagery, using a database of over 2000 manually identified OT features throughout the world in storms with varying intensity and morphology. The OT database includes storms ranging from small, warm topped cells in Alaska and Mongolia, tornadic supercells over the U.S. Central Plains and Europe, large tropical mesoscale convective systems, and overshooting in the eyewalls and spiral bands of category 5 tropical cyclones. This database is available for use by the research community. The algorithm is designed to operate on data from any current and historical satellite imager, allowing for development of a highly accurate global OT detection climatology that extends back into the 1990's at up to a 15-30 min temporal resolution throughout the diurnal cycle. As members of the McIDAS Users Group, NASA LaRC has immediate access to the full global archive of geostationary imager data which would allows rapid development of OT climatologies and short-term databases. This type of capability has never been available within the weather and climate research community. Regional geostationary OT databases have been already developed over CONUS during SEAC4RS, for 18-years over the Eastern U.S., and for 5-10 years over Australia, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Africa among many other regions. Some of these datasets are being used by climate researchers and private industry to examine UTLS-penetrating storm spatial distributions and their temporal variability, in addition to weather hazards associated with these storms at unprecedented spatial detail. This presentation will describe the OT pattern recognition algorithm and highlight recent product applications.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗