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NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

MAPSAT compared to other earth-sensing concepts

The instrument systems and operational capabilities of MAPSAT are discussed. The satellite is based on LANDSAT technology and includes the following concepts: global coverage on a continuous basis; open data dissemination in reasonable time and cost; variable resolution, swath-width, stereoscopic and multispectral capabilities; 1:50,000-scale image mapping with a 20-m contour interval; continuity with LANDSAT-1,-2, and -3 including the same basic data transmission and reception system; and one-dimensional data processing.

Colvocoresses, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multiwavelength Light Curves of Two Remarkable Sagittarius A* Flares

Sgr A* , the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, is known to be a variable source of X-ray, near-infrared (NIR), and submillimeter radiation and therefore a prime candidate to study the electromagnetic radiation generated by mass accretion flow onto a black hole and/or a related jet. Disentangling the power source and emission mechanisms of this variability is a central challenge to our understanding of accretion flows around SMBHs. Simultaneous multiwavelength observations of the flux variations and their time correlations can play an important role in obtaining a better understanding of possible emission mechanisms and their origin. This paper presents observations of two flares that both apparently violate the previously established patterns in the relative timing of submillimeter/NIR/X-ray flares from Sgr A* . One of these events provides the first evidence of coeval structure between NIR and submillimeter flux increases, while the second event is the first example of the sequence of submillimeter/X-ray/NIR flux increases all occurring within ∼1 hr. Each of these two events appears to upend assumptions that have been the basis of some analytic models of flaring in Sgr A* . However, it cannot be ruled out that these events, even though unusual, were just coincidental. These observations demonstrate that we do not fully understand the origin of the multiwavelength variability of Sgr A* and show that there is a continued and important need for long-term, coordinated, and precise multiwavelength observations of Sgr A* to characterize the full range of variability behavior

accretion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1975

Time-dependent hydrodynamic phenomena in the envelopes of the Be stars

Temporal and angular variations in the motion and distribution of circumstellar material about Be stars are studied by means of a simple hydrodynamical approach. The flow variables are each written as the sum of a known, steady-state axisymmetric term and a smaller component which contains both temporal and angular dependence. Substitution of these dichotomous expressions for the flow variables into Euler's equation and the continuity equation leads to a set of linearized equations for the terms which depend on time and angle. Solutions can be found to a somewhat approximated version of the linearized equations, and these solutions explain the qualitative features of the observed short-time variations.

Morgan, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Comparisons of pilot performance in simulated and actual flight

Five highly experienced professional pilots performed instrument landing system approaches under simulated instrument flight conditions in a Cessna 172 airplane and in a Link-Singer GAT-1 simulator while under the influence of orally administered secobarbital (0, 100, and 200 mg). Tracking performance in two axes and airspeed control were evaluated continuously during each approach. Error and RMS variability were about half as large in the simulator as in the airplane. The observed data were more strongly associated with the drug level in the simulator than in the airplane. Further, the drug-related effects were more consistent in the simulator. Improvement in performance suggestive of learning effects were seen in the simulator, but not in actual flight.

Billings, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

Deal, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Relativistic jets and the continuum emission in QSOs

The radio through optical, and possibly X-ray, emission of QSOs and active galactic nuclei is analytically interpreted in terms of a relativistic jet containing high-energy particles and a magnetic field. Parallel to the jet axis, a strong, compact radio source and strongly polarized radiation are detected, while larger viewing angles relative to the jet axis result in spectral dominance by the central region containing the 'energy machine' which drives the energy flux in the jet. It is shown that the relativistic jet model can explain the association of OVVs with strong, variable radio sources, strong optical polarization, and continuity of the radio to optical spectra.

Marscher, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Internal variability of an energy-balance model with delayed albedo effects

A simple, deterministic energy-balance model with possible relevance to climatic variations on the time scale of glaciation cycles, is presented. The lag between ice-sheet extent and zonally-averaged temperature is modeled as a time delay in the ice-albedo feedback. The model exhibits self-sustained oscillations which are quasi-periodic or aperiodic in character. Fourier spectra of solutions have the features of many paleoclimatic records: peaks of variable height and width superimposed on a continuous, red-noise type background.

Bhattacharya, K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The SIR-C experiment - Measuring new variables from space with SAR

SIR-C is a continuation of the Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR) series of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging systems flown by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory aboard the Space Shuttle. SIR-A, flown in 1981, showed that SAR can be a useful remote sensing tool in the fields of geology, hydrology, and oceanography. SIR-B added the capability of moving the radar's antenna in 1984, showing that multiple incidence angle images add materially to the usefulness of SAR. SIR-C will add the dimensions of wavelength and polarization, providing the most powerful system ever flown for SAR scientific studies of the earth.

Wall, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Modeling digital control systems with MA-prefiltered measurements

Three discrete state variable representations are derived for a continuous-time plant driven by a zero-order-hold with a combination of instantaneous measurements and measurements prefiltered by moving-average (MA) digital filters. These representations allow the control system engineer to accurately model plants of this type in a form which permits him to use standard techniques to design digital feedback controllers for them. An example is presented which illustrates how to obtain the coefficient matrices in each representation. Guidelines are presented for choosing the best representation to use for any given point.

Polites, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The Einstein survey of the young stars in the Orion Nebula

The Orion Nebula is the best studied site of recent star formation in the Galaxy. The complete Einstein Observatory survey of the Orion Nebula covering a 2 deg x 2 deg region centered on the Trapezium is reported. An X-ray mosaic is presented for the Nebula along with a complete X-ray catalogue for this very young cluster. Approximately 150 distinct sources were found in this 4 sq deg region; spectral types and colors were obtained for about 1/2 of the optical counterparts of these sources. Comparison of the variability of the Orion X-ray sources with those found in the Rho Ophiuchi cloud leads to the conclusion that the Orion sources' variability is also likely to result from continual flaring activities. Eleven new late B stars associated with X-ray emission far exceeding that expected from early type stars were discovered. The X-rays may originate from pre-main sequence companions to these stars; a T-Tauri star of the same age would have the correct L sub x. Comparison of the solar type stars in Orion with those in the Pleiades, the Hyades, and the field suggests that the decay of activity with age is most appropriately described by an exponential, rather than a power law fit.

Zoonematkermani, S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Operational viewpoint of the X-29A digital flight control system

In the past few years many flight control systems have been implemented as full-authority, full-time digital systems. The digital design has allowed flight control systems to make use of many enhanced elements that are generally considered too complex to implement in an analog system. Examples of these elements are redundant information exchanged between channels to allow for continued operation after multiple failures and multiple variable gain schedules to optimize control of the aircraft throughout its flight envelope and in all flight modes. The introduction of the digital system for flight control also created the problem of obtaining information from the system in an understandable and useful format. This paper presents how the X-29A was dealt with during its operations at NASA Ames-Dryden Flight Research Facility. A brief description of the X-29A control system, a discussion of the tools developed to aid in daily operations, and the troubleshooting of the aircraft are included.

Chacon, Vince↗

NASA NTRS1988

Table mountain observatory support to other programs

The Table Mountain Observatory (TMO) facilities include well equipped 24 inch and 16 inch telescopes with a 40 inch telescope (owned by Pomona College) due for completion during FY 89. This proposal is to provide operational support (equipment maintenance, setup, and observing assistnce) at TMO to other programs. The program currently most heavily supported by this grant is the asteroid photometry program directed by A. W. Harris. During 1987, about 20 asteroids were observed, including a near-earth asteroid, 1951 Midas. The photometric observations are used to derive rotation periods, estimate shapes and pole orientations, and to define the phase relations of asteroids. The E class asteroid 64 Angelina was observed, and showed the same opposition spike observed of 44 Jysa, last year. Comet observations are made with the narrow band camera system of David Rees, University College London. Observational support and training was provided to students and faculty from Claremont Colleges for variable star observing programs. Researchers propose to continue the asteroid program, with emphasis on measuring phase relations of low and high albedo asteroids at very low phase angles, and supporting collaborative studies of asteroid shapes.

Harris, Alan W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Further developments in modeling digital control systems with MA-prefiltered measurements

State variable representations are presented for a continuous-time plant driven by a zero-order-hold with multirate-sampled measurements prefiltered by multi-input/multi-output moving average (MA) processes. These representations have broad application, but are known to be useful in the aerospace field for modeling systems with star trackers and some state-of-the-art rate-gyroscopes and accelerometers.

Polites, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

First-Order System Least Squares for the Stokes Equations, with Application to Linear Elasticity

Following our earlier work on general second-order scalar equations, here we develop a least-squares functional for the two- and three-dimensional Stokes equations, generalized slightly by allowing a pressure term in the continuity equation. By introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations, we are able to establish ellipticity in an H(exp 1) product norm appropriately weighted by the Reynolds number. This immediately yields optimal discretization error estimates for finite element spaces in this norm and optimal algebraic convergence estimates for multiplicative and additive multigrid methods applied to the resulting discrete systems. Both estimates are uniform in the Reynolds number. Moreover, our pressure-perturbed form of the generalized Stokes equations allows us to develop an analogous result for the Dirichlet problem for linear elasticity with estimates that are uniform in the Lame constants.

Cai, Z.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Role of the Strutjet Engine in New Global and Space Markets

The Strutjet, discussed in previous IAF papers, was originally introduced as an enabling propulsion concept for single stage to orbit applications. Recent design considerations indicate that this systems also provides benefits supportive of other commercial non-space applications. This paper describes the technical progress of the Strutjet since 1997 together with a rationale why Rocket Based Combined Cycle Engines in general, and the Strutjet in particular, lend themselves uniquely to systems having the ability to expand current space and open new global 'rapid delivery' markets. During this decade, Strutjet technology has been evaluated in over 1000 tests. Its design maturity has been continuously improved and desired features, like simple variable geometry and low drag flowpath resulting in high performance, have been verified. In addition, data is now available which allows the designer, who is challenged to maximize system operability and economic feasibility, to choose between hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels for a variety of application. The ability exists now to apply this propulsion system to various vehicles with a multitude of missions. In this paper, storable hydrocarbon and gaseous hydrogen Strutjet RBCC test data as accomplished to date and as planned for the future is presented, and the degree of required technology maturity achieved so far is assessed. Two vehicles, using cryogenic propane fuel Strutjet engines, and specifically designed for rapid point-to-point cargo delivery between Pacific rim locations are introduced, discussed, and compared.

Siebenhaar, A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Remote Sensing May Provide Unprecedented Hydrological Data

Basic hydrological research and water resources management may reap tremendous benefits from remote sensing technology, studies are showing. Satellite coverage may allow unprecedented accuracy in the quantification of the global hydrological cycle, for example. Yet despite such benefits, few hydrologists currently use such data. This is partly because the needed tools and algorithms are not fully developed. Such development requires field experiments that combine remotely sensed data with detailed in situ observations. AGU's Remote Sensing in Hydrology Committee has constructed a Web site (http://Iand.gsfc.nasa.gov/RSHC.html) that gives an overview of many such experiments. Included on the site is information on each experiment's overall goal, the types of in situ and remotely sensed measurements taken, relevant climate and vegetation conditions, and so forth. Links to additional relevant Web sites are included. The site is designed to be a suitable starting point for those interested in learning more about remote sensing in hydrology. It lists members of the committee who can be contacted for further information. Hydrologists have recognized the potential of remote sensing technology since the 1970s. It offers a way to avoid the logistical and economic difficulties associated with obtaining continuous in situ measurements of various hydrological variables, difficulties that are particularly pronounced in remote regions. Microwave instruments in particular can potentially provide all-weather, areally averaged estimates of certain variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, and snow water content) that have been essentially unattainable in the past. In remote sensing, the conversion of emitted and reflected radiances into useful hydrological data is a complex problem. The measured radiances, for example, reflect the integrated character of a pixel area, a scale inconsistent with the point measurements of traditional hydrology. To develop the needed algorithms, field experiments must be designed that combine relevant satellite measurements with traditional in situ measurements in regions that are al- ready well understood hydrologically. Such field experiments can lead to the development of hydrological models that are driven with remotely sensed data. Once the performance of these models is deemed acceptable in the heavily monitored basins, they can be "transported" for use in regions having little or no in situ measurement system. Author,5: Randal D. Koster, Paul R. Houser and Edwin T. Engman, Hydrological Sciences Branch, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Process, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA; William P. Kustas, Hydrology Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, Maryland, USA.

Koster, R.↗