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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Overcoming barriers to improved decision-making for battery deployment in the clean energy transition

Decarbonization plans depend on the rapid, large-scale deployment of batteries to sufficiently decarbonize the electricity system and on-road transport. This can take many forms, shaped by technology, materials, and supply chain selection, which will have local and global environmental and social impacts. Current knowledge gaps limit the ability of decision-makers to make choices in facilitating battery deployment that minimizes or avoids unintended environmental and social consequences. These gaps include a lack of harmonized, accessible, and up-to-date data on manufacturing and supply chains and shortcomings within sustainability and social impact assessment methods, resulting in uncertainty that limits incorporation of research into policy making. These gaps can lead to unintended detrimental effects of large-scale battery deployment. To support decarbonization goals while minimizing negative environmental and social impacts, we elucidate current barriers to tracking how decision-making for large-scale battery deployment translates to environmental and social impacts and recommend steps to overcome them.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feeding state-dependent neuropeptidergic modulation of reciprocally interconnected inhibitory neurons biases sensorimotor decisions in Drosophila

Abstract An animal’s feeding state changes its behavioral priorities and thus influences even nonfeeding-related decisions. How the feeding state information is transmitted to nonfeeding-related circuits and what circuit mechanisms are involved in biasing nonfeeding-related decisions remain open questions. By combining calcium imaging, neuronal manipulations, behavioral analysis and computational modeling, we determined that the competition between different aversive responses to mechanical cues is biased by changes in the feeding state. We found that this effect is achieved by the differential modulation of two different types of reciprocally connected inhibitory neurons promoting opposing actions. This modulation results in a more frequent active type of response and, less frequently, a protective type of response if larvae are fed sugar than when they are fed a balanced diet. Information about the internal state is conveyed to inhibitory neurons through homologs of the vertebrate neuropeptide Y, which is known to be involved in regulating feeding behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast inference of Boosted Decision Trees in FPGAs for particle physics

We describe the implementation of Boosted Decision Trees in the hls4ml library, which allows the translation of a trained model into FPGA firmware through an automated conversion process. Thanks to its fully on-chip implementation, hls4ml performs inference of Boosted Decision Tree models with extremely low latency. With a typical latency less than 100 ns, this solution is suitable for FPGA-based real-time processing, such as in the Level-1 Trigger system of a collider experiment. These developments open up prospects for physicists to deploy BDTs in FPGAs for identifying the origin of jets, better reconstructing the energies of muons, and enabling better selection of rare signal processes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hosting downscaled decision-relevant community data products in ESGF2-US

As regionally-relevant high-resolution Earth system data is increasingly relied upon across scientific, policy, and practitioner communities, there is an urgent need for coordinated and federated infrastructure to store, manage, standardize, and distribute decision-relevant community data products. Substantial effort is required to ensure that these products, which are often critical for regional impact assessments and decision-making, are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. The Earth System Grid Federation US project (ESGF2-US) is addressing this challenge by expanding its open-source, distributed platform to support the hosting and dissemination of downscaled Earth system datasets. This expansion includes aligning new downscaled datasets with developing community standards for metadata and file structure, consistent with existing ESGF archives. This includes ensuring CF-compliance, applying CMORization where appropriate, and developing tools to streamline user access. In this paper, we highlight the technical and coordination work required to bring downscaled data into ESGF2-US and aim to inform the broader Earth system data user community about the growing availability and utility of these curated resources.

ESGF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable boosted-decision-tree analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ADDS-EVS: An agent-based deployment decision-support system for electric vehicle services

Rapid and sustainable development of the electric vehicle (EV) industry places the requirement for the plan of EV deployment. For public EV, existing models mainly focus on the charging facility design and fail to capture the multi-modal scenarios. In this work, we develop an agent-based decision-support system for multi-modal electric transits to locate the optimal combinations of key parameters, including the fleet size, the transit schedule, the charging facility design, and the routing strategy. We demonstrate the utilities of our system by simulating public EV services deployed to serve travel needs related to a transportation hub in New York City. To support the decision of the fleet size, we summarize system-level performances including the total satisfied demand, passengers' waiting time, vehicle idling time. The spatial and temporal patterns are extracted to serve a deeper understanding of system dynamics and service quality. Finally, we investigate the interaction between the fleet size design and the routing strategy. The results suggest a necessity of integrating the operation strategies into the planning phase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revealing Decision Conservativeness Through Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization

This paper introduces Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization (I-DRO) as a method to infer the conservativeness level of a decision-maker, represented by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, from the optimal decisions made using Forward Distributionally Robust Optimization (F-DRO). By leveraging the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions of the convex F-DRO model, we formulate I-DRO as a bi-linear program, which can be solved using off-the-shelf optimization solvers. Additionally, this formulation exhibits several advantageous properties. We demonstrate that I-DRO not only guarantees the existence and uniqueness of an optimal solution but also establishes the necessary and sufficient conditions for this optimal solution to accurately match the actual conservativeness level in F-DRO. Furthermore, we identify three extreme scenarios that may impact I-DRO effectiveness. Our case study applies F-DRO for power system scheduling under uncertainty and employs I-DRO to recover the conservativeness level of system operators. Numerical experiments based on an IEEE 5-bus system and a realistic NYISO 11-zone system demonstrate I-DRO performance in both normal and extreme scenarios. An extended version of this paper with additional analyses is available at li2024revealing.

distributionally robust optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Financing Decision in a Contract Food Supply Chain with Capital Constraint

To solve the financing problem of the food producers, we consider a two‐echelon contract food supply chain composed of a family farm with capital constraints and a food processing enterprise. With no capital constraints as the benchmark model, we analyze optimal decisions of the family farm and the food processing enterprise in the case of bank financing with bank participation only and bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation. Then, we discuss how the risk of yield uncertainty influences the optimal decisions and profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise under different financing situation. Meanwhile, the reason why the government subsidizes agriculture is explored, and the policy of minimum purchase price of the food is initiated when the market price is too low. Finally, the numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented. The results show that the bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation improves the welfare of supply chain members more obviously than the bank financing with bank participation only; when the rice price is too low, the policy of minimum purchase price of food is initiated, which increases the revenue and the growing enthusiasm of the family farm; the profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise will decrease as the risk of yield uncertainty increases in the case of bank financing, and the risk of yield uncertainty will be reduced for the family farm when bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation.

Luo, Ying (ORCID:0000000158101443)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Value of Information App (Value of Information App for Binary Geothermal Decisions and Binary Geothermal Possibilities) (Negative/Positive) [SWR-25-15]

Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney [National Renewable Energ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Irrigation Modernization Decision Support Engine

Irrigation systems are some of the oldest existing infrastructure in the United States. Increasing demands on water resources in combination with the age of these systems has resulted in a need to invest in the modernization of irrigation systems. Modernization activities are difficult to quantify, requiring expertise across multiple different domain areas. Traditionally, the scoping of a modernization project takes several years and requires significant financial investment before the potential of the project can be determined. The Irrigation Modernization Decision Support Engine allows a user to build out different scenarios. These scenarios allow for a course estimation of a project’s potential and the associated costs and benefits of pursuing the scenario. The design of the Decision Support Engine also allows for the easy sharing between different stakeholders, allowing for increased communication and understanding.

Elliott, ShilohN.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report for the ASCR Workshop on Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication

Visualization—the use of visual elements to explore data, form hypotheses, or convey conclusions—is an integral part of the scientific process. Starting from an initial exploration of new data to illustrating outcomes for the general public, visualization is one of the most intuitive and powerful modes of communication. With the explosion of new data sources and types, unprecedented volumes of data, and new technologies, such as virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI), visualization has become increasingly essential but also ever more challenging. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sponsored a Basic Research Needs workshop in January 2022 to understand the major opportunities and grand challenges in visualization tools and technologies for scientific computing as well as for DOE-relevant applications and goals in general. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) for visualization to support scientific discovery, decision making, and communication. The first three PRDs describe interconnected research themes addressing the need for new techniques to deal with complex data, uncertainty, and interpretability (PRD 1); the need for scalable and interoperable software stacks (PRD 2); and the challenges and opportunities inherent in new technologies, such as VR, cloud, or exascale computing (PRD 3). The remaining two PRDs describe foundational research themes that recognize the potential of visualizations to provide equitable access to information and to strengthen the scientific discourse (PRD 4); and the need to consider human factors when designing visualizations (PRD 5). Collectively, these PRDs form the pillars for a coherent, long-term research and development strategy in Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication in the context of the Office of Science’s mission scope.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distribution Capacity Expansion Planning: Current Practice, Opportunities, and Decision Support

The distribution utility industry and its engineers are experiencing monumental shifts in consumer needs and expectations. Characterizing future native loads as compared to net load demand for long-term capacity planning is especially difficult, as consumers are increasingly adopting prosumer technologies. This paper is the culmination of 5 months of utility interviews coordinated by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) and Kevala, Inc. (Kevala) to better understand distribution capacity planning challenges. The interviews covered all aspects of capacity planning including load and DER forecasting, criteria for assessing system constraints, solution types, and organizational and decision-making structures. Our intent is to provide insight into distribution capacity planning decision support needs for utilities and the increasing number of stakeholders involved, from state and regulatory agencies to community and solution providers with interest in increasing their understanding in the distribution capacity planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗