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DOE OSTI2025

Drift-cyclotron loss-cone instability in 3-D simulations of a sloshing-ion simple mirror

The kinetic stability of collisionless, sloshing beam-ion (45° pitch angle) plasma is studied in a three-dimensional (3-D) simple magnetic mirror, mimicking the Wisconsin high-temperature superconductor axisymmetric mirror experiment. The collisional Fokker–Planck code CQL3D-m provides a slowing-down beam-ion distribution to initialize the kinetic-ion/fluid-electron code Hybrid-VPIC, which then simulates free plasma decay without external heating or fuelling. Over 1 – 10 μs, drift-cyclotron loss-cone (DCLC) modes grow and saturate in amplitude. The DCLC scatters ions to a marginally stable distribution with gas-dynamic rather than classical-mirror confinement. Sloshing ions can trap cool (low-energy) ions in an electrostatic potential well to stabilize DCLC, but DCLC itself does not scatter sloshing beam-ions into the said well. Instead, cool ions must come from external sources such as charge-exchange collisions with a low-density neutral population. Manually adding cool ∼1keV ions improves beam-ion confinement several-fold in Hybrid-VPIC simulations, which qualitatively corroborates prior measurements from real mirror devices with sloshing ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Full time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulation of the SPARC tokamak: actuator design for particle and divertor condition control *

Abstract This paper presents the application of full time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations for actuator design in the SPARC tokamak. This study employs both the EIRENE module, a neutral solver, and the B2.5 plasma module in a time-dependent mode. This is in contrast to most SOLPS simulations, which focus on steady-state solutions, where the neutral distribution is evolved without any time limit or for a time step of 1 ⋅ 10 − 3 second, which is several orders of magnitude larger than the fluid plasma time step. The time-dependent EIRENE was tested with a fixed B2.5 background and compared with a simple conductance based model in a simplified pump chamber geometry. This comparison aimed to verify the reliability of the neutral relaxation timescale derived from the time-dependent EIRENE. Subsequently, a full time-dependent simulation was performed in a realistic geometry, with the Monte-Carlo neutral time step synchronized with the plasma fluid time step. The numerical setup of the code, including relative time steps and the size of the census data used to store Monte-Carlo particle information is considered. The full-time dependent simulations are then applied to inform the design of the SPARC louver structure, which affects divertor plasma parameters by regulating the neutral conductance from the divertor to the pump. The response of the plasma and neutral parameters was captured on a timescale that enables the design of the actuator to consider time-dependent control capability. It was found that changing the louver opacity has an equivalent effect as varying the gas throughput via puff actuation. Therefore, equivalent divertor plasma conditions can be obtained from both actuators, while the neutral pressure distribution in the pump and divertor differs for each actuator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

WTK-LED: The WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

To satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have, we aimed at developing an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, named WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), which is a meteorological dataset providing time series every 5 min and 2 km, including model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point so that users are provided with a range of possible wind speeds every 2 km. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: 1) Numerical simulations covering the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, with high-resolution data being available for 3 years (2018-2020). 2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratories covering the North American continent, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km dataset covering 20 years, from 2001-2020. 3) Specific long-term,high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the US coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set. This report focuses on a description of the land-based WTK-LED for CONUS, Hawaii, and Alaska, for the 3-year 2-km/5-min dataset and the 20-year 4-km/hourly dataset, as well as the uncertainty quantification method. We also provide limited validation results. Based on our results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Background-Oriented Schlieren Velocimetry of Helium Coolant Flow in Additively Manufactured Channels

High-pressure helium gas cooling is an attractive solution for thermal management of the fusion blanket first wall, as this coolant is chemically and neutronically inert and separable from hydrogenic species. However, due to the low thermal mass of helium, geometric optimization of these channels is required to provide sufficient cooling at manageable flow rates and pumping burdens. Increasingly, analysis and optimization of these coolant channels rely on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and these require relevant experimental data for turbulence model validation. Toward this end, a high-pressure helium gas flow visualization system has been employed to image the flow of helium in flow channels with one-sided heating, mimicking the blanket first wall environment. Flow of helium at 4 MPa pressure and flow rates up to 68 g/s (Reynolds number 57 000) is supplied to rectangular channel test sections, with uniform heating applied to the bottom wall of the channel at heat fluxes varied between roughly 50 and 130 kW/m2. A high-speed camera is used to image index of refraction (IOR) gradients in the fluid via background-oriented schlieren (BOS), and temperature and pressure instrumentation are used to characterize thermal-hydraulic performance of each channel. Cross correlation of time-resolved BOS images is then used to calculate time-averaged 2-D helium velocity fields. Flow in additively manufactured (AM) channels is examined in this manner, including both featureless channels and those containing baffling as a heat transfer enhancement. The flow distribution seen in the featureless case differs significantly from that seen in prior simulations, whereas the flow in the baffled case shows the predicted behavior of flow forced along the heated wall. This augmented flow distribution is seen to increase the heat transfer coefficient in the baffled test section. Here, strategies are discussed for ongoing and future validation of these simulations, with the aim of model deployment for blanket cooling design and optimization.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Rooftop Solar Potential in Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, and Efficacy of High-Resolution 3D Data Digital Twins [Slides]

NREL evaluated rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) siting opportunities in the cities of Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, leveraging very-high-resolution 3D elevation data to calculate technical potential. The study assessed total rooftop solar capacity and annual energy production. In Chernihiv and Lviv, 116,503 buildings were analyzed for their rooftop solar potential. The buildings in the study areas include a mixture of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, characterized by diverse roof shapes and sizes. The total estimated rooftop solar capacity is 332 MWDC in Chernihiv and 873 MWDC in Lviv with annual energy production up to 376.2 GWhDC in Chernihiv and 995.5 GWhDC in Lviv. This accounting provides a clear estimate of the potential rooftop solar installations that could be realized under optimal conditions, considering both technical constraints and the geographic distribution of available rooftop space. Related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NREL estimates loss from buildings damaged or destroyed of 2,754 buildings, 20.15 MWDC of capacity, and 22,869 MWhDC of annual energy production in Chernihiv as well as a loss of 1,316 buildings, 34.49 MWDC of capacity, and 39,369 MWhDC of annual energy production in Lviv. The study also assessed the feasibility of adapting this methodology on a national scale using either simulated digital surface models (DSMs) or a digital twin approach. While the very-high-resolution DSM provided more precise results, the simulated DSM demonstrated reasonable accuracy for broader applications in modeling aggregated distributed solar supply. The feasibility of using a digital twin for Ukraine's national rooftop solar potential is considered promising, with certain limitations in areas with highly variable building stock and heavy war damage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expected Gamma-Ray Burst Detection Rates and Redshift Distributions for the BlackCAT CubeSat Mission

We report the results of an extensive set of simulations exploring the sensitivity of the BlackCAT CubeSat to long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). BlackCAT is a NASA APRA-funded CubeSat mission for the detection and real-time subarcminute localization of high-redshift (z ≳ 3.5) GRBs. Thanks to their luminous and long-lived afterglow emissions, GRBs are uniquely valuable probes of high-redshift star-forming galaxies and the intergalactic medium. In addition, each detected GRB with a known redshift serves to localize a region of high-redshift star formation in three dimensions, enabling deep follow-on searches for host galaxies and associated local and large-scale structures. We explore two distinct models for the GRB redshift distribution and luminosity function, both consistent with Swift observations. We find that, for either model, BlackCAT is expected to detect a mean of 42 bursts per year on orbit, with 6.7% to 10% of these at z > 3.5. BlackCAT bursts will be localized to an r 90 ≲ 55'' precision and reported to the community within seconds. Due to the mission orbit and pointing scheme, bursts will be located in the night sky and well placed for deep multiwavelength follow-up observations. BlackCAT is on schedule to achieve launch readiness in 2025.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Relationship between microporous structure and light gas transport through glassy polymeric membranes revealed by molecular simulations

Microporous glassy polymers are attractive materials for gas separation membranes, due to their high permeability and tailorable selectivity, provided physical aging can be delayed. The archetypal microporous glassy polymer, PTMSP, can be blended with a hyper-crosslinked isatin–triptycene porous polymer network (PPN) to delay physical aging. However, while PPN is effective at reducing physical aging, it also affects the permeability of light gases through PTMSP. Molecular dynamics simulations were used here to shed fundamental light on the mechanisms responsible for these effects. Atomistic models are developed that satisfactorily reproduce experimental observations such as matrix density and cavity size distributions for neat PTMSP as well as for PTMSP–PPN blends. Analysis of the simulation results suggests that physical aging is delayed because the PPN inclusions slow down PTMSP relaxation while reducing the connectivity between free volume pockets. To understand how PPN inclusions affect light gas permeability, the atomistic models developed are used to probe CO 2 and CH 4 diffusion and sorption. These simulations are conducted for PTMSP matrices exhibiting varying density, towards reproducing experimental permeability data. Interrogating the simulation trajectories, it is discovered that while CH 4 travels preferentially through the free volume cavities, CO 2 preferentially interacts with the available surfaces, especially in the presence of PPN. These differences help interpret experimental observations. The transport of C 2 H 6 and H 2 S through PTMSP matrices was also investigated. These gases, and in particular H 2 S, were found to absorb within PTMSP, yielding very low diffusion coefficients. The ability to predict differences in diffusion pathways for various natural gas components unveils the possibility of engineering membranes to control permeability and selectivity towards large-scale applications.

Bao Le, Tran Thi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (U↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design of Controller Hardware-In-the-Loop Model of Microgrid with Modular Building Blocks and Automated Design Script

The scalability of controller hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) simulation is critical for validating control coordination and energy management in microgrids with distributed energy resources, especially as these modern systems become more complex and decentralized. This paper presents a CHIL modeling methodology that combines modular building blocks with an automated design script to streamline the development of high-fidelity microgrid models. Standardized subsystem templates for resources, converters, and buses are integrated with a Python-based script that compiles structured JSON configuration files into simulation-ready initialization code. The proposed approach reduces development time, improves model consistency, and enhances simulation fidelity. The methodology is validated on a Typhoon HIL604 platform and is broadly applicable to real-time simulation of complex, networked microgrid systems. This framework establishes a foundation for automated, scalable CHIL validation and accelerates the design of next-generation distributed energy systems.

Kim, Namwon [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000200438489)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating crown scorch predictions from a computational fluid dynamics wildland fire simulator

Abstract Background Crown scorch—the heating of live leaves, needles, and buds in the vegetative canopy to lethal temperatures without widespread combustion—is one of the most common fire effects shaping post-fire canopies. Despite the ability of computational fluid dynamic models to finely resolve fire activity and buoyant plume dynamics including heterogenous 3D distributions of forest canopy heating, these models have had only limited use in simulating fire effects and have not been used to evaluate crown scorch. Here, we demonstrate a method of evaluating crown scorch using a computational fluid dynamics model, FIRETEC, and validate this approach by simulating the experiments that were used to develop Van Wagner’s 1973 crown scorch model. Results The average scorch height prediction from FIRETEC compares well with the empirical model derived by Van Wagner, which is the most widely used empirical model for crown scorch. We further find that the 3D buoyant plume dynamics from a steady and homogeneous idealized heat source on the ground results in a spatially heterogenous crown scorch pattern reflecting complex heating dynamics that are best represented by percent scorch rather than height of scorch. Conclusions The ability of the computational fluid dynamics model to capture variation in crown scorch due to 3D buoyant plume dynamics provides direct links between forest structure, fire behavior, and fire effects that can be used by forest managers and researchers to better understand how fires result in crown damage under various environmental and management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗

DOE OSTI2026

Third integer resonant extraction transit time simulation studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Third Integer Resonant Extraction Transit Time Simulation Studies

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Temporal Graph Sequence Data for Resilience-Oriented Distribution Network Reconfiguration

This dataset comprises temporal dynamic graph sequences generated from power grid simulations focused on grid reconfiguration to enhance resilience. The simulations model failure propagation under varying conditions, with nodes assigned distinct failure probabilities. For each time step, the dataset captures the evolution of node states (functional or failed) and features critical to grid operations, such as pv_output, load_profile, load_dispatch, dg_output, loss, and voltage. Node types include sources, normal loads, and nodes with specific equipment like PVs, micro turbines, or shunt capacitors. The dataset is structured to support the training of dynamic graph neural networks, facilitating research on node feature prediction and edge dynamics under failure scenarios. Three distinct configurations are included, providing a robust foundation for modeling power grid resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intercell Power Transformer for Power Balancing of Polyphase Wireless Power Transfer Systems

Polyphase wireless power transfer (PWPT) systems experience receiver side imbalances in misaligned conditions. This paper proposes a method for power balancing in PWPT systems, specifically addressing the challenges caused by receivers coil unequal coupling. An intercell power transformer (IPT) is introduced at the receiver side to mitigate the effects of coil mismatch. Simulations of the PWPT system incorporating IPT demonstrate its effectiveness in enhancing power distribution. For voltage-fed rectifiers (VFR), the IPT increases the conduction angle, resulting in higher output power. In current- fed rectifiers (CFR), the IPT promotes uniform power sharing among rectifiers, thereby reducing electrical stress on semiconductor devices and passive components. Simulation results indicate that, under coil misalignment, the IPT improves output power by approximately 49% for VFRs and 44% for CFRs compared to conventional PWPT systems without IPT.

Wojda, Rafal [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286609268)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗