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Results for “dynamic state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Aircraft System Identification from Multisine Inputs and Frequency Responses

The identification of aircraft flight dynamics is often performed using frequency responses, which are nonparametric models that quantify the steady-state magnitude and phase of a dynamic system response to sinusoidal inputs, as a function of frequency. Frequency responses are computed from measured input and output data, and then model parameters, such as stability and control derivatives, are estimated to best fit a parametric model to the empirical frequency response data. The utility of this approach is due to the familiarity of engineers with frequency responses, a number of theoretical and practical advantages under specific conditions, the availability of software packages, and many other reasons.

System identification↗
NASA NTRS2018

Incremental States for Precise On-Orbit Relative Knowledge in Formation Flight

High precision and close proximity formation flight is an enabling technology for future space missions and requires an on-board relative navigation capability that is accurate to the mm-level and robust to formation parameters. Common estimation techniques linearize the entire formation about one spacecraft’s position, resulting in degraded accuracy due to linearization errors when separation distances become large. Additionally, methods which decouple absolute and relative state estimates usually require ad-hoc methods to incorporate the estimates together. This work discusses an alternative ”incremental” formulation of the relative navigation problem which is in variant to formation size, robust to coupling between absolute and relative dynamics, and can undergo similarity transformations to smoothly incorporate either absolute or relative information without numerical issues. A specific example of this architecture is presented in the context of formation navigation using Carrier-Differential Global Positioning System measurements, and is compared to a traditional leader-linearized filter. In the presence of accurate measurements, the incremental architecture is shown to reduce linearization errors and mean estimate errors by up to three orders of magnitude without the incorporation of new sensor information.

Seubert, Carl↗
DOE OSTI2026

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Measurement-Driven Eigenenergy Estimation with Classical Shadows

Quantum algorithms exploiting real-time evolution under a target Hamiltonian have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in extracting key spectral information. However, the broader potential of these methods, particularly beyond ground-state calculations, is underexplored. In this work, we introduce the framework of multiobservable dynamic mode decomposition (MODMD), which combines the observable dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), a measurement-driven eigensolver tailored for near-term implementation, with classical shadow tomography. MODMD leverages random scrambling in the classical shadow technique to construct, with exponentially reduced resource requirements, a signal subspace that encodes rich spectral information. Notably, we replace typical Hadamard-test circuits with a protocol designed to predict low-rank observables, thereby broadening the use of classical shadow tomography for predicting many low-rank observables. We establish theoretical guarantees on the spectral approximation from MODMD, taking into account distinct sources of error. In the ideal case, we prove that the spectral error scales as exp (−Δ⁢𝐸⁢𝑡 max ), where Δ⁢𝐸 is the Hamiltonian spectral gap and 𝑡 max is the maximal simulation time. This analysis provides a rigorous justification of the rapid convergence observed across simulations. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we consider its application to fundamental tasks, such as determining the low-lying, i.e., ground or excited, energies of representative many-body systems. Our work paves the path for efficient designs of measurement-driven algorithms on near-term and early fault-tolerant quantum devices.

quantum algorithms & computation↗
NASA NTRS1986

Transient gain-versus-absorption laser probing of spin-orbit states, kinetics and dynamics

The spin-orbit populations of excited (2P1/2) and ground (2P3/2) state Br atoms at 2714 nm and I atoms at 1315 nm are examined using a tunable F-center laser and a diode laser. The transient laser gain-versus-absorption measurements are utilized to estimate quantum yields of the spin-orbit states in the photodissociation of Br- and I-containing compounds; the continuum yields for Br2 are investigated in terms of temperature. The collisional release, Doppler velocity effects, and differing reactivity of the spin-orbit excited and ground state atoms are studied. It is noted that the transient gain versus absorption technique is applicable to the analysis of kinetic phenomena due to its high sensitivity and excellent time resolution.

Smedley, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatological Structures of the GRIPS Models: Mean States and Forcing

The GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) is assessing and monitoring the performance of state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). A wide variety of tasks have been initiated. These are designed to: (1) assess the ability of the GCMs to represent the current climatological structure of the troposphere and middle atmosphere,(2) to compare their response to imposed forcing anomalies, and (3) to estimate the certainty with which future climate perturbations can be predicted. This paper is concerned with assessments of the climatological states in the GCM simulations. Comparing the simulations with observational datasets reveals considerable discrepancies in the modelled fields. While it might be anticipated that certain types of biases in the model simulations might be related to the formulation of different aspects of the numerical package (dynamical schemes, cloud schemes, radiation transfer, inclusion of gravity wave drag), there is no clear relationship between these features. This paper attempts to draw a more comprehensive picture of the GCMs'performance than has previously been shown, by comparing the dominant forcing mechanisms in the models with observational estimates, and relating model deficiencies to the differences in the physical mechanisms in the GCMS.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3: Flight Dynamics

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m2 solar sail in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar sail↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local and General Patterns of Terrestrial Water‐Carbon Coupling

Abstract Terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability have coupled feedbacks; specifically water uptake for plant growth and soil drying via transpiration. While we might expect this coupling over time at arid sites, climatic water availability also widely covaries geographically with biomass variables that control photosynthetic rates. Using eddy covariance data globally, we find convex, positively‐covarying relations between carbon uptake and a turbulent flux metric controlled by land surface moisture (r = 0.73 monthly across sites) at the site level. We estimate a general, empirical relationship based on site‐wise water‐carbon dynamics. Most sites, and the general relationship, show strong power‐law dependence, implicating the role of sub‐seasonal land‐cover dynamics. We also find that long‐term mean carbon/water states follow a similar convex relationship to the site‐specific temporal dynamics. We discuss opportunities and caveats for space‐for‐time frameworks of carbon/water feedback processes globally.

Geology↗
NASA NTRS1990

Performance of concatenated Reed-Solomon trellis-coded modulation over Rician fading channels

A concatenated coding scheme for providing very reliable data over mobile-satellite channels at power levels similar to those used for vocoded speech is described. The outer code is a shorter Reed-Solomon code which provides error detection as well as error correction capabilities. The inner code is a 1-D 8-state trellis code applied independently to both the inphase and quadrature channels. To achieve the full error correction potential of this inner code, the code symbols are multiplexed with a pilot sequence which is used to provide dynamic channel estimation and coherent detection. The implementation structure of this scheme is discussed and its performance is estimated.

Moher, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Nonlinear modeling, identification and estimation of slew induced structural deformation

This proposal discusses a new nonlinear, nonparametric method for off-line modeling and on-line estimation of the deformation of a flexible structure undergoing rapid retargeting maneuvers. In these circumstances, the structural stiffness and damping coefficients depend on the angular acceleration omega(dot), the angular rate omega, and the square of the angular rate omega. In the single axis case, the excitation of the structure is represented by the vector u(exp T) = (omega(dot), omega(exp 2), 2(omega)), to which the structural dynamics responds as a 'bilinear' (i.e., parametrically excited) system. A similar technique for multiaxial rotations yields a bilinear model with respect to matrix valued excitations. Three methods of estimation and modeling are described in this proposal to achieve deformation state determination: (1) a method based on a feedback linearized procedure which gives an estimate of the state by means of observers installed in the deformable body; (2) off-line modeling of the deformation state of the structure by means of topological interpolators; and (3) an on-line structural state estimation method based on a combination of the two previous techniques.

Dwyer, Thomas A., III↗
NASA NTRS2001

Calibration of Gyros with Temperature Dependent Scale Factors

The general problem of gyro calibration can be stated as the estimation of the scale factors, misalignments, and drift-rate biases of the gyro using the on-orbit sensor measurements. These gyro parameters have been traditionally treated as temperature-independent in the operational flight dynamics ground systems at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), a scenario which has been successfully applied in the gyro calibration of a large number of missions. A significant departure from this is the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) mission where, due to the high thermal variations expected during the mission phase, it is necessary to model the scale factors as functions of temperature. This paper addresses the issue of gyro calibration for the MAP gyro model using a manufacturer-supplied model of the variation of scale factors with temperature. The problem is formulated as a least squares problem and solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in the MATLAB(R) library function NLSQ. The algorithm was tested on simulated data with Gaussian noise for the quaternions as well as the gyro rates and was found to consistently converge close to the true values. Significant improvement in accuracy was noticed due to the estimation of the temperature-dependent scale factors as against constant scale factors.

Belur, Sheela V.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Planning, Scheduling and Execution for Autonomous Mars Rover Operations

With each new rover mission to Mars, rovers are traveling significantly longer distances. This distance increase raises not only the opportunities for science data collection, but also amplifies the amount of environment and rover state uncertainty that must be handled in rover operations. This paper describes how planning, scheduling and execution techniques can be used onboard a rover to autonomously generate and execute rover activities and in particular to handle new science opportunities that have been identified dynamically. We also discuss some of the particular challenges we face in supporting autonomous rover decision-making. These include interaction with rover navigation and path-planning software and handling large amounts of uncertainty in state and resource estimations. Finally, we describe our experiences in testing this work using several Mars rover prototypes in a realistic environment.

automated rover operations↗
DOE OSTI2024

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3 - Flight Dynamics for A Solar Sail Technology Demonstration Mission

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m 2 solar sail in a 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand no earlier than July 2023. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar Sail↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inertia estimation for power grids: A review of methods, challenges, and future prospects

The electric power grid is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional synchronous generators to inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and energy storage systems. This evolution leads to a reduction in system inertia, a critical attribute for maintaining frequency stability in response to disturbances. Consequently, the ability to monitor and estimate system inertia has become increasingly essential. This paper provides a comprehensive review of existing inertia estimation methodologies, analyzing them from multiple perspectives, including the types of data utilized, underlying estimation principles, operational modes, and system-wide applicability. A comparative summary table is included to distill commonalities and key characteristics across various studies. In addition, the paper examines practical implementations of inertia estimation across several major power systems worldwide, including the U.S. interconnections, the Nordic power system, and the U.K. grid. Key challenges are identified, particularly in estimating contributions from virtual inertia sources and load-induced inertia in increasingly converter-dominated networks. To address these emerging challenges, the paper proposes an integrated framework for real-time inertia estimation and monitoring. This framework encompasses critical components such as data acquisition, inertia estimation from both synchronous and non-synchronous sources, load-induced effects, optimization techniques, forecasting, and virtual inertia scheduling. Collectively, these elements enable dynamic, system-wide monitoring and adaptive control of grid inertia.

Inertia estimation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Parameter estimation in nonlinear distributed systems - Approximation theory and convergence results

An abstract approximation framework and convergence theory is described for Galerkin approximations applied to inverse problems involving nonlinear distributed parameter systems. Parameter estimation problems are considered and formulated as the minimization of a least-squares-like performance index over a compact admissible parameter set subject to state constraints given by an inhomogeneous nonlinear distributed system. The theory applies to systems whose dynamics can be described by either time-independent or nonstationary strongly maximal monotonic operators defined on a reflexive Banach space which is densely and continuously embedded in a Hilbert space. It is demonstrated that if readily verifiable conditions on the system's dependence on the unknown parameters are satisfied, and the usual Galerkin approximation assumption holds, then solutions to the approximating problems exist and approximate a solution to the original infinite-dimensional identification problem.

Banks, H. T.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Methods for in-flight robustness evaluation

The goal of this program was to combine modern control concepts with new identification techniques to develop a comprehensive package for estimation of 'robust flutter boundaries' based on experimental data. The goal was to use flight data, combined with a fundamental physical understanding of flutter dynamics, to generate a prediction of flutter speed and an estimate of the accuracy of the prediction. This report is organized as follows: the specific contributions of this project will be listed first. Then, the problem under study will be stated and the general approach will be outlined. Third, the specific system under study (F- 18 SRA) will be described and a preliminary data analysis will be performed. Then, the various steps of the flutter boundary determination will be outlined and applied to tile F-18 SRA data and others.

Brenner, Marty↗