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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

High-spectral-resolution X-Ray Observations of the Evolved Supermassive Stellar Binary System η Carinae: Fe K α Band Profile Revealed with XRISM

The supermassive binary system, η Carinae, is experiencing enormous wind-driven mass loss at a rate unparalleled in the rest of the Galaxy. Their wind–wind collision (WWC) continuously produces shock heated, X-ray-emitting plasmas. The XRISM X-ray observatory observed the system in 2023 and 2024 when the X-ray emission began to increase toward periastron passage in 2025. This paper reports unprecedentedly high-resolution X-ray spectra in the Fe Kα band between 6.2 and 7.1 keV, obtained with the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter. The hydrogen-like (Lyα) and helium-like (Heα) lines reveal three velocity components. Two of them are broadened with maximum velocities of 2000–3000 km s −1 , likely originating from the postshock companion wind. The other is relatively narrow, with a Gaussian broadening of only ∼290 km s −1 in 1σ, which may originate from the postshock companion wind at the WWC stagnation point or penetrating the primary wind. The Fe fluorescent lines exhibit a moderate blueshift and broadening with velocities at 100–200 km s −1 , consistent with the primary wind’s velocity field. The spectra also confirm a Compton shoulder of the Heα line complex for the first time. Both fluorescing and scattering spectral profiles indicate that the binary system is seen from the companion side during these observations. The flux ratio of the Compton-scattering emission to the fluorescent line suggests substantial hydrogen depletion of the primary wind, expected from CNO-cycled hydrogen nuclear fusion gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

AGC 226178 and NGVS 3543: Two Deceptive Dwarfs toward Virgo

The two sources AGC 226178 and NGVS 3543, an extremely faint, clumpy, blue stellar system and a low surface brightness dwarf spheroidal, are adjacent systems in the direction of the Virgo cluster. Both have been studied in detail previously, with it being suggested that they are unrelated normal dwarf galaxies or that NGVS 3543 recently lost its gas through ram pressure stripping and AGC 226178 formed from this stripped gas. However, with Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys imaging, we demonstrate that the stellar population of NGVS 3543 is inconsistent with being at the distance of the Virgo cluster and that it is likely a foreground object at approximately 10 Mpc, whereas the stellar population of AGC 226178 is consistent with it being a very young (10–100 Myr) object in the Virgo cluster. Through a reanalysis of the original ALFALFA H i detection, we show that AGC 226178 likely formed from gas stripped from the nearby dwarf galaxy VCC 2034, a hypothesis strengthened by the high metallicity measured with MUSE VLT observations. However, it is unclear whether ram pressure or a tidal interaction is responsible for stripping the gas. Object AGC 226178 is one of at least five similar objects now known toward Virgo. These objects are all young and unlikely to remain visible for over ~500 Myr, suggesting that they are continually produced in the cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current and Future γ-Ray Searches for Dark Matter Annihilation Beyond the Unitarity Limit

For decades, searches for electroweak-scale dark matter (DM) have been performed without a definitive detection. This lack of success may hint that DM searches have focused on the wrong mass range. A proposed candidate beyond the canonical parameter space is ultraheavy DM (UHDM). In this work, we consider indirect UHDM annihilation searches for masses between 30 TeV and 30 PeV—extending well beyond the unitarity limit at ~100 TeV—and discuss the basic requirements for DM models in this regime. We explore the feasibility of detecting the annihilation signature, and the expected reach for UHDM with current and future very-high-energy (VHE; >100 GeV) γ-ray observatories. Specifically, we focus on three reference instruments: two Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope arrays, modeled on VERITAS and CTA-North, and one extended air shower array, motivated by HAWC. With reasonable assumptions on the instrument response functions and background rate, we find a set of UHDM parameters (mass and cross section) for which a γ-ray signature can be detected by the aforementioned observatories. Here, we further compute the expected upper limits for each experiment. With realistic exposure times, the three instruments can probe DM across a wide mass range. At the lower end, it can still have a point-like cross section, while at higher masses the DM could have a geometric cross section, indicative of compositeness.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

XRISM Spectroscopy of the Fe Kα Emission Line in the Seyfert Active Galactic Nucleus NGC 4151 Reveals the Disk, Broad-line Region, and Torus

Abstract We present an analysis of the first two XRISM/Resolve spectra of the well-known Seyfert-1.5 active galactic nucleus (AGN) in NGC 4151, obtained in 2023 December. Our work focuses on the nature of the narrow Fe K α emission line at 6.4 keV, the strongest and most common X-ray line observed in AGN. The total line is found to consist of three components. Even the narrowest component of the line is resolved with evident Fe K α ,1 (6.404 keV) and K α ,2 (6.391 keV) contributions in a 2:1 flux ratio, fully consistent with neutral gas with negligible bulk velocity. Subject to the limitations of our models, the narrowest and intermediate-width components are consistent with emission from optically thin gas, suggesting that they arise in a disk atmosphere and/or wind. Modeling the three line components in terms of Keplerian broadening, they are readily associated with (1) the inner wall of the “torus,” (2) the innermost optical “broad-line region” (or “X-ray BLR”), and (3) a region with a radius of r ≃ 100 GM / c 2 that may signal a warp in the accretion disk. Viable alternative explanations of the broadest component include a fast-wind component and/or scattering; however, we find evidence of variability in the narrow Fe K α line complex on timescales consistent with small radii. The best-fit models are statistically superior to simple Voigt functions, but when fit with Voigt profiles the time-averaged lines are consistent with a projected velocity broadening of FWHM = 1600 − 200 + 400 km s − 1 . Overall, the resolution and sensitivity of XRISM show that the narrow Fe K line in AGN is an effective probe of all key parts of the accretion flow, as it is currently understood. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of AGN accretion, future studies with XRISM, and X-ray-based black hole mass measurements.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The XRISM/Resolve View of the Fe K Region of Cyg X-3

The X-ray binary system Cygnus X-3 (4U 2030+40, V1521 Cyg) is luminous but enigmatic owing to the high intervening absorption. High-resolution X-ray spectroscopy uniquely probes the dynamics of the photoionized gas in the system. In this Letter, we report on an observation of Cyg X-3 with the XRISM/Resolve spectrometer, which provides unprecedented spectral resolution and sensitivity in the 2–10 keV band. We detect multiple kinematic and ionization components in absorption and emission whose superposition leads to complex line profiles, including strong P Cygni profiles on resonance lines. The prominent Fe xxv Heα and Fe xxvi Lyα emission complexes are clearly resolved into their characteristic fine-structure transitions. Self-consistent photoionization modeling allows us to disentangle the absorption and emission components and measure the Doppler velocity of these components as a function of binary orbital phase. We find a significantly higher velocity amplitude for the emission lines than for the absorption lines. The absorption lines generally appear blueshifted by ∼−500–600 km s −1 . We show that the wind decomposes naturally into a relatively smooth and large-scale component, perhaps associated with the background wind itself, plus a turbulent, denser structure located close to the compact object in its orbit.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

XRISM Reveals Low Nonthermal Pressure in the Core of the Hot, Relaxed Galaxy Cluster A2029

We present XRISM Resolve observations of the core of the hot, relaxed galaxy cluster Abell 2029 (A2029). We find that the line-of-sight bulk velocity of the intracluster medium (ICM) within the central 180 kpc is at rest with respect to the brightest cluster galaxy, with a 3σ upper limit of ∣vbulk∣ < 100 km s−1. We robustly measure the field-integrated ICM velocity dispersion to be σv = 169 ± 10 km s−1, obtaining similar results for both single-temperature and two-temperature plasma models to account for the cluster cool core. This result, if ascribed to isotropic turbulence, implies a subsonic ICM with Mach number M 3D ≈ 0.22 and a nonthermal pressure fraction of 2.6 ± 0.3%. The turbulent velocity is similar to what was measured in the core of the Perseus cluster by Hitomi, but here in a more massive cluster with an ICM temperature of 7 keV, the limit on the nonthermal pressure fraction is even more stringent. Our result is consistent with expectations from simulations of relaxed clusters, but it is on the low end of the predicted distribution, indicating that A2029 is an exceptionally relaxed cluster with no significant impacts from either a recent minor merger or active galactic nucleus activity.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

XRISM Forecast for the Coma Cluster: Stormy, with a Steep Power Spectrum

The XRISM Resolve microcalorimeter array measured the velocities of hot intracluster gas at two positions in the Coma galaxy cluster: ${3}^{{\prime} }\times {3}^{{\prime} }$ squares at the center and at 6$^{\prime} $ (170 kpc) to the south. We find the line-of-sight velocity dispersions in those regions to be σ z = 208 ± 12 km s −1 and 202 ± 24 km s −1 , respectively. The central value corresponds to a 3D Mach number of M = 0.24 ± 0.015 and a ratio of the kinetic pressure of small-scale motions to thermal pressure in the intracluster plasma of only 3.1% ± 0.4%, at the lower end of predictions from cosmological simulations for merging clusters like Coma, and similar to that observed in the cool core of the relaxed cluster A2029. Meanwhile, the gas in both regions exhibits high line-of-sight velocity differences from the mean velocity of the cluster galaxies, Δv z = 450 ± 15 km s −1 and 730 ± 30 km s −1 , respectively. A small contribution from an additional gas velocity component, consistent with the cluster optical mean, is detected along a sight line near the cluster center. The combination of the observed velocity dispersions and bulk velocities is not described by a Kolmogorov velocity power spectrum of steady-state turbulence; instead, the data imply a much steeper effective slope (i.e., relatively more power at larger linear scales). This may indicate either a very large dissipation scale, resulting in the suppression of small-scale motions, or a transient dynamic state of the cluster, where large-scale gas flows generated by an ongoing merger have not yet cascaded down to small scales.

coma cluster↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematic Evidence for Bipolar Ejecta Flows in the Galactic Supernova Remnant W49B

W49B is a unique Galactic supernova remnant with centrally peaked, “bar”-like ejecta distribution, which was once considered evidence for a hypernova origin that resulted in a bipolar ejection of the stellar core. However, chemical abundance measurements contradict this interpretation. Closely connected to the morphology of the ejecta is its velocity distribution, which provides critical details for understanding the explosion mechanism. We report the first ever observational constraint on the kinematics of the ejecta in W49B using the Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer on the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM). Using XRISM/Resolve, we measured the line-of-sight velocity traced by the Fe Heα emission, which is the brightest feature in the Resolve spectrum, to vary by ±300 km s −1 with a smooth east-to-west gradient of a few tens of kilometers per second per parsec along the major axis. Similar trends in the line-of-sight velocity structure were found for other Fe-group elements Cr and Mn, traced by the Heα emission, and also for intermediate-mass elements Si, S, Ar, and Ca, traced by the Lyα emission. The discovery of the east–west gradient in the line-of-sight velocity, together with the absence of a twin-peaked line profile or enhanced broadening in the central region, clearly rejects the equatorially expanding disk model. In contrast, the observed velocity structure suggests bipolar flows reminiscent of a bipolar explosion scenario. An alternative scenario would be a collimation of the ejecta by an elongated cavity sculpted by bipolar stellar winds.

High resolution spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing XRISM Cluster Velocity Dispersions with Predictions from Cosmological Simulations: Are Feedback Models Too Ejective?

The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2025

XRISM Constraints on Unidentified X-Ray Emission Lines, Including the 3.5 keV Line, in the Stacked Spectrum of 10 Galaxy Clusters

We stack 3.75 Ms of early XRISM Resolve observations of 10 galaxy clusters to search for unidentified spectral lines in the E = 2.5–15 keV band (rest frame), including the E = 3.5 keV line reported in earlier low spectral resolution studies of cluster samples. Such an emission line may originate from the decay of the sterile neutrino, a warm dark matter (DM) candidate. No unidentified lines are detected in our stacked cluster spectrum, with the 3σ upper limit on the m s ∼ 7.1 keV DM particle decay rate (which corresponds to an E = 3.55 keV emission line) of Γ ∼ 1.0 × 10 −27 s −1 . This upper limit is 3–4 times lower than the one derived by Hitomi Collaboration from the Perseus observation but still 5 times higher than the XMM-Newton detection reported by E. Bulbul et al. in the stacked cluster sample. XRISM Resolve, with its high spectral resolution but small field of view, may reach the sensitivity needed to test the XMM-Newton cluster sample detection by combining several years worth of future cluster observations.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

The algebraic structure of gravitational scrambling

We introduce a new algebraic framework to describe gravitational scrambling, including the semiclassical limit of any out-of-time-order correlation function that is built out of operator insertions separated by approximately the scrambling time. In two dimensions, the scrambling algebra, which we call a modular-twisted product, is defined in terms of two copies of the Leutheusser-Liu half-sided modular inclusion of von Neumann algebras; these describe early- and late-time operators respectively. In limits where the separation between insertions is taken to be either significantly greater or smaller than the scrambling time, the modular-twisted product reduces, respectively, to free- and tensor-product algebras that were previously studied in [arXiv:2209.10454]. In a sense, the modular-twisted product interpolates between these two products. Including the Hamiltonian in the scrambling algebra leads to a Type II$_\infty$ von Neumann algebra with finite renormalized entropies that interpolate between single-QES and multi-QES phases. We also describe how to generalize the modular-twisted product algebra to higher dimensions, including spatially localized boundary excitations.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of methods to determine the surface mixing layer height of the atmospheric boundary layer in the central Arctic during polar night and transition to polar day in cloudless and cloudy conditions

This study evaluates methods to derive the surface mixing layer (SML) height of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using in situ measurements inside the Arctic ABL during winter and the transition period to spring. An instrumental payload carried by a tethered balloon was used for the measurements between December 2019 and May 2020 during the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. Vertically highly resolved (centimeter scale) in situ profile measurements of mean and turbulent parameters were obtained, reaching from the sea ice to several hundred meters above ground. Two typical conditions of the Arctic ABL over sea ice were identified: cloudless situations with a shallow surface-based inversion and cloudy conditions with an elevated inversion. Both conditions are associated with significantly different SML heights whose determination as accurately as possible is of great importance for many applications. We used the measured turbulence profile data to define a reference of the SML height. With this reference, a more precise critical bulk Richardson number of 0.12 was derived, which allows an extension of the SML height determination to regular radiosoundings. Furthermore, we have tested the applicability of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to derive SML heights based on measured turbulent surface fluxes. The application of the different approaches and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon-borne observations of thermal-infrared irradiance and cooling rate profiles in the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer

Clouds play an important role in controlling the radiative energy budget of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer. To quantify the impact of clouds on the radiative heating or cooling of the lower atmosphere and of the surface, vertical profile observations of thermal-infrared irradiances were collected using a radiation measurement system carried by a tethered balloon. We present 70 profiles of thermal-infrared radiative quantities measured in summer 2020 during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and in autumn 2021 and spring 2022 in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Measurements are classified into four groups: cloudless, low-level liquid-bearing cloud, elevated liquid-bearing cloud, and elevated ice cloud. Cloudless cases display an average radiative cooling rate of about —2 K d—1 throughout the atmospheric boundary layer. Instead, low-level liquid-bearing clouds are characterized by a radiative cooling up to —80 K d—1 within a shallow layer at cloud top, while no temperature tendencies are identified underneath the cloud layer. Radiative transfer simulations are performed to quantify the sensitivity of radiative cooling rates to cloud microphysical properties. In particular, cloud top cooling is strongly driven by the liquid water path, especially in optically thin clouds, while for optically thick clouds the cloud droplet number concentration has an increased influence. Additional radiative transfer simulations are used to demonstrate the enhanced radiative importance of the liquid relative to ice clouds. To analyze the temporal evolution of thermal-infrared radiation profiles during the transitions from a cloudy to a cloudless atmosphere, a respective case study is investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗