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NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hindcast Skill Assessment of Ridging Events Related to Drought Over the Western United States

Persistent atmospheric ridging events centered near the western United States are associated with widespread precipitation deficits and meteorological drought. Due to the relatively low skill of- dynamical models in forecasting precipitation on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) time scales across this region, forecasts of ridging are explored in this study as a potential bridge for early warning drought prediction. To assess skill, we evaluate deterministic and probabilistic S2S hindcasts (out to 6 week lead time) of ridging events and geopotential height anomalies over the western United States in five ensemble hindcast systems. Prediction skill for ridging events is shown to be highly variable across models. For some models, longer‐time‐averaged patterns of geopotential height anomalies across the first 6 weeks can be skillfully simulated, when evaluated probabilistically against climatology. The most skillful models show modest skill in forecasting above normal ridging occurrences at lead times of Weeks 3–4 and Weeks 5–6,with some sensitivity to the specific ridge location and method for determining skill. Using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model as a case study, longer lead time forecast busts are shown to often occur under extended periods of highly active La Nina‐like tropical convection. Model errors at simulating these tropical convection features may have a disproportionately large impact and degrade downstream forecasts over the western United States. Despite the documented model shortcomings, our results highlight an opportunity to target skillful ridging forecasts from dynamical models for improving early warning drought forecasting at S2S lead times.

S2S↗

NASA NTRS2010

Success Stories in Control: Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Control

NASA plays an important role in advancing the state of the art in flight control systems. In the case of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion (NDI) NASA supported initial implementation of the theory in an aircraft and demonstration in a space vehicle. Dr. Dale Enns of Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technology performed this work in cooperation with NASA and under NASA contract. Honeywell and Lockheed Martin were subsequently contracted by AFRL to create "Design Guidelines for Multivariable Control Theory". This foundational work directly contributed to the advancement of the technology and the credibility of the control law as a design option. As a result Honeywell collaborated with Lockheed Martin to produce a Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion controller for the X-35 and subsequently Lockheed Martin did the same for the production Lockheed Martin F-35 vehicle. The theory behind NDI is to use a systematic generalized approach to controlling a vehicle. Using general aircraft nonlinear equations of motion and onboard aerodynamic, mass properties, and engine models specific to the vehicle, a relationship between control effectors and desired aircraft motion can be formulated. Using this formulation a control combination is used that provides a predictable response to commanded motion. Control loops around this formulation shape the response as desired and provide robustness to modeling errors. Once the control law is designed it can be used on a similar class of vehicle with only an update to the vehicle specific onboard models.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Doubly-Differenced Measurements for Orbit Determinations

Report describes accurate method of determining orbit of low-altitude Earth satellite. Method insensitive to clock errors and provides continuous determination of orbit. Report examines effects of employing fewer ground stations, applying different solution strategies, and introducing fictitious thrust parameters to minimize geopotential modeling error - one of major error sources.

Wu, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis/forecast experiments with a multivariate statistical analysis scheme using FGGE data

A three-dimensional, multivariate, statistical analysis method, optimal interpolation (OI) is described for modeling meteorological data from widely dispersed sites. The model was developed to analyze FGGE data at the NASA-Goddard Laboratory of Atmospherics. The model features a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans, including maintenance of the Ekman balance and a geographically dependent correlation function. Preliminary comparisons are made between the OI model and similar schemes employed at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the National Meteorological Center. The OI scheme is used to provide input to a GCM, and model error correlations are calculated for forecasts of 500 mb vertical water mixing ratios and the wind profiles. Comparisons are made between the predictions and measured data. The model is shown to be as accurate as a successive corrections model out to 4.5 days.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Covariance Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2011

GSFC OSTM, Jason-l and TOPEX POD Update

The OSTM (Jason-2) has been in orbit for three years (since June 2008), and the full suite of altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-I and Jason-2 now span nearly twenty years since the launch of TOPEX in 1992. Issues that affect the stability of the orbits through time and the orbit accuracy include the reference frame, the radiation pressure models for the altimeter satellites and the fidelity of the dynamic force model, including time-variable gravity, as well as the performance of the individual tracking systems. We have conducted detailed analyses of the new ITRF2008 reference frame and find only a small effect on global mean sea level compared to ITRF2005, although we note an improvement in POD quality over the most recent time periods for Jason-2. In the past year we have developed a new time series of orbits for TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-I, and Jason-2 based on the ITRF2008 reference frame using SLR and DORIS data and for Jason-2 using GPS data. In addition, we have continued to experiment with improvements to the radiation pressure model for the altimeter satellites in particular the Jason satellites since these nonconservative force model errors now rank as the most outstanding source of error on altimeter satellite POD. In the previous (ITRF2005-based) and current (ITRF2008-based) orbits we have relied on a simplified time-variable gravity (TVG) model, derived from GRACE solutions. We have recently experimented with improvements using higher fidelity TVG models (both temporally and spatially) and report on the results. We have computed a time series of GPS-only reduced-dynamic orbits at GSFC, and used these in conjunction with the SLR-DORIS dynamic and reduced-dynamic orbits to assess reference fiame stability with respect to the different tracking systems for both ITRF2005 and ITRF2008. We show through internal (GSFConly) and external comparisons (with other analysis centers) that the radial orbit accuracy for Jason-2 remains at I cm.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Advances in Land Data Assimilation at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

Reichle, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS1984

Error detection process - Model, design, and its impact on computer performance

An analytical model is developed for computer error detection processes and applied to estimate their influence on system performance. Faults in the hardware, not in the design, are assumed to be the potential cause of transition to erroneous states during normal operations. The classification properties and associated recovery methods of error detection are discussed. The probability of obtaining an unreliable result is evaluated, along with the resulting computational loss. Error detection during design is considered and a feasible design space is outlined. Extension of the methods to account for the effects of extant multiple faults is indicated.

Shin, K. G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Extension to the dynamic modeling of the large angle magnetic suspension test fixture

The Large Angle Magnetic Suspension Test Fixture (LAMSTF) is a laboratory scale proof-of-concept system. The configuration is unique in that the electromagnets are mounted in a circular planar array. A mathematical model of the system had previously been developed, but was shown to have inaccuracies. These inaccuracies showed up in the step responses. Eddy currents were found to be the major cause of the modeling errors. In the original system, eddy currents existed in the aluminum baseplate, iron cores, and the sensor support frame. An attempt to include the eddy current dynamics in the system model is presented. The dynamics of a dummy sensor ring were added to the system. Adding the eddy current dynamics to the simulation improves the way it compares to the actual experiment. Also presented is a new method of determining the yaw angle of the suspended element. From the coil currents the yaw angle can be determined and the controller can be updated to suspend at the new current. This method has been used to demonstrate a 360 degree yaw angle rotation.

Foster, Lucas E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Tracking and orbit determination of near earth orbiting satellites using earth synchronous relay satellites

A Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) made up of two earth synchronous data relay satellites is proposed for the late 1970s to aid in the tracking, or take the place of ground tracking, or near-earth orbiters. Theoretical error analysis studies were conducted to evaluate the TDRSS concept of tracking user satellites. All major factors affecting orbit determination accuracy were considered in the analysis, including tracking system and dynamic modeling errors.

Bryant, W. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A walk through the planned CS building

Using the architectural plan views of our future computer science building as test objects, we have completed the first stage of a Building walkthrough system. The inputs to our system are AutoCAD files. An AutoCAD converter translates the geometrical information in these files into a format suitable for 3D rendering. Major model errors, such as incorrect polygon intersections and random face orientations, are detected and fixed automatically. Interactive viewing and editing tools are provided to view the results, to modify and clean the model and to change surface attributes. Our display system provides a simple-to-use user interface for interactive exploration of buildings. Using only the mouse buttons, the user can move inside and outside the building and change floors. Several viewing and rendering options are provided, such as restricting the viewing frustum, avoiding wall collisions, and selecting different rendering algorithms. A plan view of the current floor, with the position of the eye point and viewing direction on it, is displayed at all times. The scene illumination can be manipulated, by interactively controlling intensity values for 5 light sources.

Khorramabadi, Delnaz↗

NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity of planetary cruise navigation to earth orientation calibration errors

A detailed analysis was conducted to determine the sensitivity of spacecraft navigation errors to the accuracy and timeliness of Earth orientation calibrations. Analyses based on simulated X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging measurements acquired during the interplanetary cruise segment of the Mars Pathfinder heliocentric trajectory were completed for the nominal trajectory design and for an alternative trajectory with a longer transit time. Several error models were developed to characterize the effect of Earth orientation on navigational accuracy based on current and anticipated Deep Space Network calibration strategies. The navigational sensitivity of Mars Pathfinder to calibration errors in Earth orientation was computed for each candidate calibration strategy with the Earth orientation parameters included as estimated parameters in the navigation solution. In these cases, the calibration errors contributed 23 to 58% of the total navigation error budget, depending on the calibration strategy being assessed. Navigation sensitivity calculations were also performed for cases in which Earth orientation calibration errors were not adjusted in the navigation solution. In these cases, Earth orientation calibration errors contributed from 26 to as much as 227% of the total navigation error budget. The final analysis suggests that, not only is the method used to calibrate Earth orientation vitally important for precision navigation of Mars Pathfinder, but perhaps equally important is the method for inclusion of the calibration errors in the navigation solutions.

Estefan, J. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Polarized Dust Emission Using Data from the First Flight of SPIDER

Using data from the first flight of Spider and from the Planck High Frequency Instrument, we probe the properties of polarized emission from interstellar dust in the Spider observing region. Component-separation algorithms operating in both the spatial and harmonic domains are applied to probe their consistency and to quantify modeling errors associated with their assumptions. Analyses of diffuse Galactic dust emission spanning the full Spider region demonstrate (i) a spectral energy distribution that is broadly consistent with a modified-blackbody (MBB) model with a spectral index of β d = 1.45 ± 0.05 (1.47 ± 0.06) for E (B)-mode polarization, slightly lower than that reported by Planck for the full sky; (ii) an angular power spectrum broadly consistent with a power law; and (iii) no significant detection of line-of-sight polarization decorrelation. Tests of several modeling uncertainties find only a modest impact (~10% in σ r ) on Spider's sensitivity to the cosmological tensor-to-scalar ratio. The size of the Spider region further allows for a statistically meaningful analysis of the variation in foreground properties within it. Assuming a fixed dust temperature T d = 19.6 K, an analysis of two independent subregions of that field results in inferred values of β d = 1.52 ± 0.06 and β d = 1.09 ± 0.09, which are inconsistent at the 3.9σ level. Furthermore, a joint analysis of Spider and Planck 217 and 353 GHz data within one subregion is inconsistent with a simple MBB at more than 3σ, assuming a common morphology of polarized dust emission over the full range of frequencies. This evidence of variation may inform the component-separation approaches of future cosmic microwave background polarization experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Active learning for SNAP interatomic potentials via Bayesian predictive uncertainty

Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. Here, the prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with the absolute error over approximately 24 orders of magnitude. Using this prediction variance, an active learning algorithm is constructed to iteratively train a potential by selecting the structures with the most uncertain properties from a pool of candidate structures. The relative importance of the energy, force, and stress errors in the objective function is shown to have a strong impact upon the trajectory of their respective net error metrics when running the active learning algorithm. Batched training of different batch sizes is also tested against singular structure updates, and it is found that batches can be used to significantly reduce the number of retraining steps required with only minor impact on the active learning trajectory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Error Cancellation in Analog Quantum Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is a promising path towards solving classically intractable problems in many-body physics on near-term quantum devices. However, the presence of noise limits the size of the system and the length of time that can be simulated. In our work, we consider an error model in which the actual Hamiltonian of the simulator differs from the target Hamiltonian we want to simulate by small local perturbations, which are assumed to be random and unbiased. We analyze the error accumulated in observables in this setting and show that, due to stochastic error cancellation, with high probability the error scales as the square root of the number of qubits instead of linearly. We explore the concentration phenomenon of this error as well as its implications for local observables in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we show that stochastic error cancellation also manifests in the fidelity between the target state at the end of time-evolution and the actual state we obtain in the presence of noise. This indicates that, to reach a certain fidelity, more noise can be tolerated than implied by the worst-case bound if the noise comes from many statistically independent sources.

Analog quantum simulation↗

NASA NTRS1990

Model reduction for flexible structures

Several conditions for a near-optimal reduction of general dynamic systems are presented focusing on the reduction in balanced and modal coordinates. It is shown that model and balanced reductions give very different results for the flexible structure with closely-spaced natural frequencies. In general, balanced reduction is found to give better results. A robust model reduction technique was developed to study the sensitivity of modeling error to variations in the damping of a structure. New concepts of grammians defined over a finite time and/or a frequency interval are proposed including computational procedures for evaluating them. Application of the model reduction technique to these grammians is considered to lead to a near-optimal reduced model which closely reproduces the full system output in the time and/or frequency interval.

Gawronski, Wodek↗