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At least 415 records · Page 23

Proposed law of nature linking impacts, plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles to terrestrial vertebrate mass extinctions via greenhouse-embryo death coupling

A greenhouse-physiological coupling killing mechanism active among mammals, birds, and reptiles has been identified. Operating via environmental thermal effects upon the maternal core-skin blood flow critical to the survival and development of embryos, it reduces the flow of blood to the uterine tract. Today, during hot summers, this phenomena kills embryos on a vast, global scale. Because of sensitivity of many mammals to modern heat, a major modern greenhouse could reduce population numbers on a global scale, and potentially trigger population collapses in the more vulnerable parts of the world. In the geological past, the killing mechanism has likely been triggered into action by greenhouse warming via impact events, plume volcanism, and Earth orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles). Earth's biosphere is maintained and molded by the flow of energy from the solar energy source to Earth and on to the space energy sink (SES). This SES energy flow maintains Earth's biosphere and its living components, as open, intermediate, dissipative, nonequilibrium systems whose states are dependent upon the rate of energy flowing through them. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere influence the SES energy flow rate. Steady-state flow is necessary for global ecological stability (autopoiesis). Natural fluctuations of the C cycle such as rapid releases of CO2 from the mantle, or oceans, disrupt steady-state SES flow. These fluctuations constantly challenge the biosphere; slowdown of SES energy flow drives it toward thermodynamical equilibrium and stagnation. Fluctuations induced by impact event, mantle plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles can grow into structure-breaking waves triggering major perturbations of Earth's C cycle and mass extinctions. A major C cycle perturbation involves readjustment of the outer physiochemical spheres of the Earth: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere; and by necessity, the biosphere. A greenhouse, one manifestation of a major C cycle perturbation, is the most dangerous natural phenomenon that life on Earth can experience. Greenhouse conditions existed during the KT mass extinctions of 65 m.y. ago, and the Pleistocene-Holocene (P-H) mammalian extinctions of 10,000-12,000 yr ago. Coupling climatology to reproductive physiology via effects of ambient air temperature upon uterine blood flow to developing embryos accounts for the extinctions via established physiological principles.

Mclean, D. M.↗

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.↗

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. The best hope we have for aerosol retrievals over bright backgrounds are observations from multiple angles, such as those provided by the MISR and POLDER instruments. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Kuo, K. S.↗

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Kuo, K.-S.↗

Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon (Ramanathan et al. 2005). On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect (Lau et al. 2006). In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation of the Asian monsoon land regions.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Historical (1850‐2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS Modele2.1 Contribution to CMIP6

The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multi-century anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present-day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States of America, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition onfiguration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980’s, whereas the mass-based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.

Aerosol forcing↗

Some results from studies on the effects of weightlessness on the growth of epiphytic orchids

Epidendrum orchids were placed in a Malakhit-2 micro-greenhouse aboard the Soyuz-36-Salyut-6 space station to test their growth under weightless conditions. Growth occurred but was less than in control plants left on Earth; cells were smaller and parenchymal development slowed in all tissues. Stems, roots, and leaves were smaller. The number of stomas on the leaves was about the same as in the controls, but, because of the smaller leaf size, there were more per unit area. A modeling experiment using a clinostat revealed a large decrease in gibberellin activity and auxin activity. It was assumed that weightlessness primarily affects gibberellin biosynthesis, inhibiting cell growth. Reestablishment of growth compound activity upon return of the plants to Earth was indicated by the fact that the orchids resumed growth thereafter.

Cherevchenko, T. M.↗

Aerosol Effects on Radiation and Climate: Column Closure Experiments with Towers, Aircraft, and Satellites

Many theoretical studies have shown that anthropogenic aerosol particles can change the radiation balance in an atmospheric column and might thereby exert a significant effect on the Earth's climate. In particular, recent calculations have shown that sulfate particles from anthropogenic combustion may already exert a cooling influence on the Earth that partially offsets the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the same combustion. Despite the potential climatic importance of anthropogenic aerosols, simultaneous measurements of anthropogenic aerosol properties and their effect on atmospheric radiation have been very rare. Successful comparisons of measured radiation fields with those calculated from aerosol measurements - now referred to as column closure comparisons - are required to improve the accuracy and credibility of climate predictions. This paper reviews the column closure experiment performed at the Mt. Sutro Tower in San Francisco in 1975, in which elevated radiometers measured the change in Earth-plus-atmosphere albedo caused by an aerosol layer, while a lidar, sunphotometer, nephelometer, and other radiometers measured properties of the responsible aerosol. The time-dependent albedo calculated from the measured aerosol properties agreed with that measured by the tower radiometers. Also presented are designs for future column closure studies using radiometers and aerosol instruments on the ground, aircraft, and satellites. These designs draw upon algorithms and experience developed in the Sutro Tower study, as well as more recent experience with current measurement and analysis capabilities.

Russell, Philip B.↗

Mars Greenhouses: Concepts and Challenges. Proceedings from a 1999 Workshop

Topic covered include :Plants on Mars: On the Next Mission and in the Long Term Future; Bubbles in the Rocks: Natural and Artificial Caves and Cavities as Like Support Structures; Challenges for Bioregenerative Life Support on Mars; Cost Effectiveness Issues; Low Pressure Systems for Plant Growth; Plant Responses to Rarified Atmospheres; Can CO2 be Used as a Pressurizing Gas for Mars Greenhouses?; Inflatable Habitats Technology Development; Development of an Inflatable Greenhouse for a Modular Crop Production System; Mars Inflatable Greenhouse Workshop; Design Needs for Mars Deployable Greenhouse; Preliminary Estimates of the Possibilities for Developing a Deployable Greenhouse for a Planetary Surface Mars; Low Pressure Greenhouse Concepts for Mars; Mars Greenhouse Study: Natural vs. Artificial Lighting; and Wire Culture for an Inflatable Mars Greenhouse and Other Future Inflatable Space Growth Chambers.

Wheeler, Ray M.↗

Finding and Fixing Food System Emissions: The Double Helix of Science and Policy

Improving estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production, supply, consumption, and disposal is fundamental to identifying effective policy solutions. Through broader awareness of the food-climate nexus, climate mitigation as well as resilience can be enhanced. However, work is needed to address knowledge gaps, promote better policies and improve public understanding of issues related to the food system and climate change. The intention of this paper is not only to highlight the need for better scientific understanding of the processes through which GHGs are emitted—from production to processing, from supply chains and retail to food preparation and waste (figure 1)—but also to integrate science and policy in order to scale up impact on climate change action.

food systems↗

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

Cox, Richard A.↗

An assessment of volatile release from recent volcanism in Elysium, Mars

The amount and rate of release of volatiles (H2O, CO2, etc.) from recent volcanism in Elysium, Mars, are estimated. Possible implications of these volatiles on the climate, weathering, and surface morphology are discussed. Total eruptic volcanics may amount to about 4 x 10 exp 5 cu km and would have released large quantities of volatiles into the Martian environment. Assuming that the lavas contained 1.0 wt pct water, about 7.6 x 10 exp 15 kg of the water, or about 1000 times the present atmospheric water inventory, would have been released. Release amounts of other volatiles are estimated to be 10 exp 15 kg of S, 10 exp 13 kg of Cl, and 10 exp 13 kg of F. The short-term effect of the SO2 gas would be to warm the climate due to its greenhouse properties. Conversion to sulfate aerosols might have resulted in a net surface cooling due to scattering of sunlight. As the sulfate aerosols settled from the atmosphere, the climate could have returned to its preeruption equilibrium.

Plescia, J. B.↗

Galactic Diffuse Gamma Ray Emission Is Greater than 10 Gev

AGILE and Gamma-ray Large Area Telescope (GLAST) are the next high-energy gamma-ray telescopes to be flown in space. These instruments will have angular resolution about 5 times better than Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) above 10 GeV and much larger field of view. The on-axis effective area of AGILE will be about half that of EGRET, whereas GLAST will have about 6 times greater effective area than EGRET. The capabilities of ground based very high-energy telescopes are also improving, e.g. Whipple, and new telescopes, e.g. Solar Tower Atmospheric Cerenkov Effect Experiment (STACEE), Cerenkov Low Energy Sampling and Timing Experiment (CELESTE), and Mars Advanced Greenhouse Integrated Complex (MAGIC) are expected to have low-energy thresholds and sensitivities that will overlap the GLAST sensitivity above approximately 10 GeV. In anticipation of the results from these new telescopes, our current understanding of the galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission, including the matter and cosmic ray distributions is reviewed. The outstanding questions are discussed and the potential of future observations with these new instruments to resolve these questions is examined.

Hunter, Stanley D.↗

Chemical restrictions of roots in Ultisol subsoils lessened by long-term management

Exchangeable Al in subsoils of Ultisols in the southeastern USA can restrict rooting depth. Downward movement of basic cations (Ca, Mg, and K), applied as lime and fertilizer, may diminish that restriction over time. Materials from the argillic horizon were collected from three paired sites, having managed (long-term cropping) and nonmanaged topsoils (Typic Paleudults and Hapludults). One managed site was cropped continuously for 15 yr while the others were cultivated for more than 30 yr. Concentrations of extractable cations and other nutrients from the paired sites were compared to determine the magnitude of change due to management. The ability of the subsoils to support plant growth was evaluated in a missing-nutrient greenhouse experiment with sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Subsoils of managed sites had greater effective cation-exchange capacity (CEC) and base saturation than those of non-managed sites. While availabilities of Ca, Mg, and K in subsoils of nonmanaged sites were inadequate to support maximal plant growth, they were adequate in subsoils of managed sites. Compared with nonmanaged sites, KCl-exchangeable Al in subsoils of managed sites was 23% lower at the 15-yr location and 65 and 100% lower at the two other locations. In the absence of lime, sorghum growth was almost totally inhibited on nonmanaged subsoils amended with optimum nutrients. On the managed subsoils, where 100, 65, and 23% of the nonmanaged exchangeable Al had been neutralized by topsoil fertilization and liming, growth reductions under the same conditions were 0, 50, and 100%, respectively. Thus, relatively long-term management had improved these Ultisol subsoils for root growth and development.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Sellers, Piers↗

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Warming Delayed By Aerosols and Thermostat Response to Co2 Increase

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here, we use a range of CMIP6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential OT-related delay, while the EP warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Lorius, C.↗

Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.↗