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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes. II: Warming and Elevated CO 2 Effects on Peatland CH 4 Emissions

Peatlands are one of the largest natural sources for atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. Climate warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are two important environmental factors that have been confirmed to stimulate peatland CH 4 emissions; however, the mechanisms underlying enhanced emissions remain elusive. A data-model integration approach was applied to understand the CH 4 processes in a northern temperate peatland under a gradient of warming and doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We found that warming and elevated CO 2 stimulated CH 4 emissions through different mechanisms. Warming initially stimulated but then suppressed vegetative productivity while stimulating soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fermentation, which led to higher acetate production and enhanced acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Warming also enhanced surface CH 4 emissions, which combined with warming-caused decreases in CH 4 solubility led to slightly lower dissolved CH 4 concentrations through the soil profiles. Elevated CO 2 enhanced ecosystem productivity and SOM mineralization, resulting in higher DOC and acetate concentrations. Higher DOC and acetate concentrations increased acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and led to higher dissolved CH 4 concentrations and CH 4 emissions. Both warming and elevated CO 2 had minor impacts on CH 4 oxidation. A meta-analysis of warming and elevated CO 2 impacts on carbon cycling in wetlands agreed well with a majority of the modeled mechanisms. Finally, this mechanistic understanding of the stimulating impacts of warming and elevated CO 2 on peatland CH 4 emissions enhances our predictability on the climate-ecosystem feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of surface runoff and infiltration partition methods on hydrological modeling: A comparison of four schemes in two watersheds in the Northeastern US

The ratio according to which the precipitation/snowmelt is divided into surface and subsurface water is of primary importance to watershed scale hydrological modeling. The present study compared four different surface runoff and infiltration partition methods in the Richards-equation-based SWAT model (RSWAT), i.e., daily curve number method (DC-RSWAT), hourly curve number method (HC-RSWAT), Green-Ampt method (GA-RSWAT), and effective infiltration capacity method (EIC-RSWAT). These four versions of RSWAT and a daily-curve-number-based SWAT (DC-SWAT) were used to simulate daily flow rate (from 2001 to 2015) at the outlets of the Tuckahoe Creek Watershed (TCW) and Greensboro Watershed (GW) of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland. Parameter sensitivity analysis, calibration, and prediction uncertainty analysis were conducted. The results indicate that surface runoff and infiltration partition methods have pronounced impacts on model performance. Comparative analysis showed that DC-RSWAT outperformed other versions of RSWAT for both calibration (from 2001 to2007) and validation (from 2008 to 2015) periods in the two test watersheds. In general, DC-RSWAT achieved more accurate deterministic flow simulation and reliable uncertainty estimation than other versions. As such, daily-curve-number method is recommended for surface runoff and infiltration partition in RSWAT for simulating stream flow.

hydrology, modeling, streamflow↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modelling the impact of quasar redshift errors on the full-shape analysis of correlations in the Lyman-α forest.

In preparation for the first cosmological measurements from the full shape of the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest from DESI, we must carefully model all relevant systematics that might bias our analysis. It was shown in Youles et al. (2022) that random quasar redshift errors produce a smoothing effect on the mean quasar continuum in the Lyα forest region. This, in turn, gives rise to spurious features in the Lyα autocorrelation and its cross-correlation with quasars. Using synthetic data sets based on the DESI survey, we confirm that the impact on BAO measurements is small, but that a bias is introduced to parameters which depend on the full shape of our correlations. We combine a model of this contamination in the cross-correlation (Youles et al. 2022) with a new model we introduce here for the auto-correlation. These are parametrised by 3 parameters, which, when included in a joint fit to both correlation functions, successfully eliminate any impact of redshift errors on our full-shape constraints. We also present a strategy for removing this contamination from real data, by removing ∼0.3% of correlating pairs.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurately Quantifying Stress during Metal Halide Perovskite Thin Film Formation

The role of strain in metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells is still under investigation, showing both beneficial and detrimental effects on the device performance and stability. One crucial component to elucidating the impact of strain in the MHP absorber is a robust method of quantifying the amount of strain in the material. In this work, we present a parametric refinement approach based on grazing incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering and demonstrate its use on quantifying strain during thermal annealing and subsequent cooling as a function of substrate and processing route. We use the analysis to reveal the impact of the cubic-to-tetragonal phase transition during cooling on the material's strain and discuss texture formation as a potential strain-relief mechanism. Thereby we present both a robust approach to quantify strain in MHPs and potential mechanisms to control strain in the film, opening the path for further investigations of strain in MHPs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical leaching of critical materials from lithium-ion batteries: A comparative life cycle assessment

The manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) requires critical materials such as cobalt (Co) and lithium (Li) that are essential for clean-energy products including electric vehicles. Because of their rapidly increasing demand and limited supply, the recycle and reuse of these materials from end-of-life LIB have garnered a lot of interest. Electrochemical leaching has emerged as a sustainable method to extract critical materials out of LIBs, so life cycle assessment was conducted to compare the environmental impacts with traditional peroxide-based leaching and another emerging technology – SO 2 -based leaching. The results showed that electrochemical leaching reduces the global warming potential (GWP) by 80%-87% compared to peroxide-based leaching due to a lower acid consumption, avoidance of hydrogen peroxide, and regeneration of reducing agent iron (II) sulfate and compares well with SO 2 -based leaching in most impact categories. Furthermore, the analysis suggested renewable energy can further reduce the environment footprint of electrochemical leaching.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alterations in soil pH emerge as a key driver of the impact of global change on soil microbial nitrogen cycling: Evidence from a global meta-analysis

Soil nitrogen (N) cycling is critical to the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the impact of global change factors (GCFs) on the microbial mediators of N cycling pathways has yet to be synthesized, and it also remains unclear whether the response of the abundance of N-cycling genes can predict changes in their corresponding processes. We synthesized 8322 paired observations of soil microorganisms related to N cycling from field experiments in which GCFs (climate change and nutrient addition) were manipulated. We found that the abundance of soil microbes and most N-cycling genes were resistant to elevated CO 2 , experimental warming and water addition/reduction; however, N addition and the combination of N addition with other GCFs significantly increased the abundance of ammonia oxidizer bacteria (amoA-AOB). The results indicated that in steady-state (natural) conditions, the main factors driving the global abundance of soil bacteria, archaea and N-cycling genes varied in terms of the contributions of climatic and edaphic factors. However, upon manipulation of GCFs, the induced change in soil pH was the most essential factor associated with changes in the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes. Notably, the changes in ammonia-oxidizing archaea (amoA-AOA) and amoA-AOB genes, in addition to genes involved in denitrification (nirS and nirK), were significantly correlated with the rates of their corresponding processes, but GCF-induced shifts in the potential nitrification rate (PNR) were explained well by changes in the abundance of the amoA-AOB gene under GCFs. In conclusion, our study highlights how ongoing GCFs impact the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes, which might have a profound impact on terrestrial N cycling. Our field-based results provide new insights into the drivers of the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic-environmental impacts of industrial energy assessment: Sustainable industrial motor systems of small and medium-sized enterprises

Energy assessments can provide an effective way of identifying and implementing energy efficiency measures to save energy costs and avoid emissions throughout manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it generates significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic techno-economic-environmental framework for capturing the interactions. This article employs methodologies to improve the energy efficiency of small and medium-size industries through their sustainable industrial motor systems. Motor systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. Case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing sustainable motor systems and the importance of energy assessments. Here, the integrated macro-economic analysis quantifies the regional sustainability impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency offered by an energy auditing program in Ohio over a ten-year period. Results show that implementing all the center’s motor recommendations have directly saved $\$702$ M in energy costs, avoided 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and created 3,445 jobs, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $\$788$ M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced regional economic impacts. It provides policy implications for encouraging sustainable industrial motor systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of cross-section uncertainties on supernova neutrino spectral parameter fitting in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

A primary goal of the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to measure the 𝒪⁡(10) MeV neutrinos produced by a Galactic core-collapse supernova if one should occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The liquid-argon-based detectors planned for DUNE are expected to be uniquely sensitive to the 𝜈 𝑒 component of the supernova flux, enabling a wide variety of physics and astrophysics measurements. A key requirement for a correct interpretation of these measurements is a good understanding of the energy-dependent total cross section 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) for charged-current 𝜈 𝑒 absorption on argon. In the context of a simulated extraction of supernova 𝜈 𝑒 spectral parameters from a toy analysis, we investigate the impact of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) modeling uncertainties on DUNE’s supernova neutrino physics sensitivity for the first time. We find that the currently large theoretical uncertainties on 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) must be substantially reduced before the 𝜈𝑒 flux parameters can be extracted reliably; in the absence of external constraints, a measurement of the integrated neutrino luminosity with less than 10% bias with DUNE requires 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) to be known to about 5%. The neutrino spectral shape parameters can be known to better than 10% for a 20% uncertainty on the cross-section scale, although they will be sensitive to uncertainties on the shape of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ). A direct measurement of low-energy 𝜈𝑒-argon scattering would be invaluable for improving the theoretical precision to the needed level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Human-Centric Transportation and Energy Metrics: Influence of Mode, Vehicle Occupancy, Trip Distance, and Fuel Economy

Traditional metrics measuring transportation and energy outcomes can be augmented to better represent impacts on people's lives and systems-level performance. In this context, this study introduces two novel metrics: road capacity (as number of people traveling and accessing services) and energy intensity (as energy use for people traveling and accessing services). Current national-level distributions of available data in the United States for factors contributing to the two new integrated metrics are used as context to evaluate potential outcomes. These factors include vehicle occupancy, mode share, fuel economy, and trip distance. Variations in input values provide insights on how these factors shape efficiencies in road capacity and energy intensity. Parametric sensitivity analysis indicates that the impact of each input depends upon the metric being evaluated. For the human-centered road capacity mobility metric, increasing vehicle occupancy has the largest effect – twice that of increasing mode share for bike, walk, and transit. For the energy intensity mobility metric, the effect of improving fuel economy is the largest. However, when the focus is on accessibility (instead of mobility), for both metrics the effect of lowering average trip distance is the largest. Additionally, a novel interactive tool to visualize the results for various parameter combinations makes the metrics practitioner ready. The findings suggest that the diffusion of new human-centric metrics that benchmark outcomes associated with road capacity and energy may be significant in motivating new sustainable transportation investments and efficient utilization of infrastructure, mobility assets, and services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

PIVOT: Powering the Transformation of the Global Energy Economy - 2023 JISEA Annual Report

The 2023 JISEA Annual Report describes accomplishments from the past year at the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, which is powering the transformation of the global energy economy. 2022 was filled with high-impact work in supply chain analysis, industrial decarbonization, sustainable communities, and more. This year, JISEA also launched the Green Computing Catalyzer and welcomed the American-Made program to the center.

catalyzer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of the Conductive Networks on Solid‐State Battery Operation

The micromorphology of composite cathodes is known to play a vital role in determining all-solid-state battery (ASSB) performance. However, much of our current understanding is derived from empirical observations, lacking a deeper mechanistic foundation. The “rocking chair” concept of battery chemistry requires maintaining charge neutrality, emphasizing the necessity of examining electrode micromorphology from the perspective of conductive networks. This study systematically investigates the microscopic electrochemical impacts of conductive network micromorphology by varying the Li + -to-e − channel ratio in cathodes comprising LiNbO 3 -coated LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 , Li 6 PS 5 Cl, and carbon fibers. Utilizing multiscale synchrotron-based spectro-microscopy, we unravel that unbalanced Li + and e − conducting channels intensify charge polarization within active cathode particles and accelerate their degradation. A further model system with X-ray nano-tomography resolved e − and Li + channels indicates that spatially uniform and well-paired Li + and e − conducting channels are highly desirable as they could promote more uniform lithiation/delithiation, mitigating microscopic electrochemical polarization. Electrode-scale X-ray holotomography analysis reveals that the impact of conductive networks is particle-size-dependent, with smaller cathode particles being more significantly affected. These findings provide mechanistic insights into the interplay between conductive networks and all-solid-state battery operation, laying the groundwork for rational design and optimization of cathode architectures in future solid-state battery technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated plant-mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine-scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems are controlled by redox conditions in the soil, which are currently underrepresented in Earth system models. Plant-mediated radial oxygen loss (ROL) can increase soil O 2 availability, affect local redox conditions, and cause heterogeneous distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species at the root scale, which would affect CH 4 emissions integrated over larger scales. In this study, we used a subsurface geochemical simulator (PFLOTRAN) to quantify the effects of incorporating either spatially homogeneous ROL or more complex heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater solute concentration depth profiles (dissolved organic carbon, methane, sulfate, sulfide) and column integrated CH 4 fluxes for a tidal coastal wetland. From the heterogeneous ROL simulation, we obtained 18% higher column averaged CH 4 concentration at the rooting zone but 5% lower total CH 4 flux compared to simulations of the homogeneous ROL or without ROL. This difference is because lower CH 4 concentrations occurred in the same rhizosphere volume that was directly connected with plant-mediated transport of CH 4 from the rooting zone to the atmosphere. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the impacts of heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater oxygen and sulfide concentrations will be more important under conditions of higher ROL fluxes or more heterogeneous root distribution (lower root densities). Despite the small impact on predicted CH 4 emissions, the simulated ROL drastically reduced porewater concentrations of sulfide, an effective phytotoxin, indicating that incorporating ROL combined with sulfur cycling into ecosystem models could potentially improve predictions of plant productivity in coastal wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗