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Results for “interpretable machine learning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Interpretable artificial intelligence and exascale molecular dynamics simulations to reveal kinetics: Applications to Alzheimer's disease

The rapid increase in computing power, especially with the integration of graphics processing units, has dramatically increased the capabilities of molecular dynamics simulations. To date, these capabilities extend from running very long simulations (tens to hundreds of microseconds) to thousands of short simulations. However, the expansive data generated in these simulations must be made interpretable not only by the investigator who performs them but also by others as well. Here, we demonstrate how integrating learning techniques, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and neural networks, into analysis pipelines can reveal the kinetics of Alzheimer's disease (AD) protein aggregation. Finally, we review select AD targets, describe current simulation methods, and introduce learning concepts and their application in AD, highlighting limitations and potential solutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automating the interpretation of PM 2.5 time–resolved measurements using a data–driven approach

The rapid development of automated measurement equipment enables researchers to collect greater quantities of time-resolved data from indoor and outdoor environments. While significant, the interpretation of the resulting data can be a time-consuming effort. This paper introduces an automated process of interpreting PM 2.5 time-resolved data and differentiating PM 2.5 emissions resulting from indoor and outdoor sources. Here, we use Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, to study a dataset of 836 indoor emission events that occurred over a 2-week period in 18 apartments in California. In this paper, we show model development and evaluate its performance as the sample size and source vary. We discuss the characteristics of the dataset that tended to help the source identification and why. For example, we show that data from many events and from different apartments are essential for the model to be suitable for analyzing a new separate dataset. We also show that longitudinal data appear to be more helpful than the time frequency of measurements within a given apartment. We use the resulting RF model to analyze PM 2.5 data of an entirely separate dataset collected from 65 new homes in California. The RF model identifies 442 indoor emission events, with only a few misidentifications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wolf

The Workflow Orchestration Language Framework (WOLF) is an agentic framework grounded in natural language with an architecture inspired by reinforcement learning (RL)—designed to orchestrate, scale, and accelerate complex workflows. The concept of WOLF was born out of the very successful ASC Tri-lab Multi-Agent Design Assistant (MADA) project, but extends beyond its domain-specific design agents to provide a more general and extensible architecture. WOLF capitalizes on the lessons learned from MADA and is fully aligned with Sutton’s The Bitter Lesson—that the most enduring progress in AI comes from general-purpose methods that scale with computation, rather than narrow techniques built on domain-specific human knowledge. In this spirit, WOLF enables agents to autonomously learn workflows, capture strategies as reusable playbooks, and build a growing corpus of interpretable, auditable “wisdom artifacts.” These artifacts, expressed in natural language, bridge human and machine understanding while preserving adaptability and scalability as computational power continues to expand.

Boureima, Ismaeal↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric learning for computational mechanics Part II: Graph embedding for interpretable multiscale plasticity

The history-dependent behaviors of classical plasticity models are often driven by internal variables evolved according to phenomenological laws. The difficulty to interpret how these internal variables represent a history of deformation, the lack of direct measurement of these internal variables for calibration and validation, and the weak physical underpinning of those phenomenological laws have long been criticized as barriers to creating realistic models. In this work, geometric machine learning on graph data (e.g. finite element solutions) is used as a means to establish a connection between nonlinear dimensional reduction techniques and plasticity models. Geometric learning-based encoding on graphs allows the embedding of rich time-history data onto a low-dimensional Euclidean space such that the evolution of plastic deformation can be predicted in the embedded feature space. Finally, a corresponding decoder can then convert these low-dimensional internal variables back into a weighted graph such that the dominating topological features of plastic deformation can be observed and analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Role of Chemistry in Fracture Pattern Development and Opportunities to Advance Interpretations of Geological Materials

Abstract Fracture pattern development has been a challenging area of research in the Earth sciences for more than 100 years. Much has been learned about the spatial and temporal complexity inherent to these systems, but severe challenges remain. Future advances will require new approaches. Chemical processes play a larger role in opening‐mode fracture pattern development than has hitherto been appreciated. This review examines relationships between mechanical and geochemical processes that influence the fracture patterns recorded in natural settings. For fractures formed in diagenetic settings (~50 to 200 °C), we review evidence of chemical reactions in fractures and show how a chemical perspective helps solve problems in fracture analysis. We also outline impediments to subsurface pattern measurement and interpretation, assess implications of discoveries in fracture history reconstruction for process‐based models, review models of fracture cementation and chemically assisted fracture growth, and discuss promising paths for future work. To accurately predict the mechanical and fluid flow properties of fracture systems, a processes‐based approach is needed. Progress is possible using observational, experimental, and modeling approaches that view fracture patterns and properties as the result of coupled mechanical and chemical processes. A critical area is reconstructing patterns through time. Such data sets are essential for developing and testing predictive models. Other topics that need work include models of crystal growth and dissolution rates under geological conditions, cement mechanical effects, and subcritical crack propagation. Advances in machine learning and 3‐D imaging present opportunities for a mechanistic understanding of fracture formation and development, enabling prediction of spatial and temporal complexity over geologic timescales. Geophysical research with a chemical perspective is needed to correctly identify and interpret fractures from geophysical measurements during site characterization and monitoring of subsurface engineering activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedback, physics, and forecasts: The emerging paradigm of machine learning-driven battery research

Machine learning (ML) is reshaping how we understand, predict, and optimize electrochemical systems. In batteries, ML accelerates discovery across chemistry, design, and operation by transforming massive experimental and simulated datasets into predictive, interpretable models. This review consolidates a decade of progress in ML-driven battery innovation, from early-cycle feature extraction to operando image analysis and physics-informed modeling. We categorize approaches by data domain and physical fidelity, emphasizing interpretable ML for diagnostics, reinforcement learning for control, and multi-objective optimization for lifetime extension strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate how integrated models accelerate discovery, reduce testing time, and guide sustainable design. Economic analyses furthermore illustrate how these advances can lower cost per cycle and improve circularity. Together, these developments chart a path toward self-optimizing, sustainable battery technologies.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

A structured framework for predicting sustainable aviation fuel properties using liquid-phase FTIR and machine learning

Sustainable aviation fuels have the potential to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. To help identify viable sustainable aviation fuels and accelerate research, machine learning models have been developed to predict relevant physicochemical properties. However, many models have limited applicability, leverage data from complex analytical techniques with confined spectral ranges, or use feature decomposition methods that offer limited interpretability. Using liquid-phase Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectra, this study presents a structured method for creating accurate and interpretable property prediction models for neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. Liquid FTIR spectra can be collected quickly and consistently, offering high reliability, sensitivity, and component specificity using less than 2 ml of sample. The method first decomposes FTIR spectra into fundamental building blocks using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to enable scientific analysis of FTIR spectra attributes and fuel properties. The NMF features are then used to create five ensemble models for predicting final boiling point, flash point, freezing point, density at 15°C, and kinematic viscosity at -20°C. All models were trained using experimental property data from neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. The models accurately predict key properties across a broad range of neat molecules and representative fuels and blends, while enabling interpretation of relationships between compositional elements, such as functional groups or chemical classes, and their resulting properties. This demonstrates strong potential to support sustainable aviation fuel research and development. The models and data are available on an interactive web tool.

Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explore Spatio‐Temporal Learning of Large Sample Hydrology Using Graph Neural Networks

Abstract Streamflow forecasting over gauged and ungauged basins play a vital role in water resources planning, especially under the changing climate. Increased availability of large sample hydrology data sets, together with recent advances in deep learning techniques, has presented new opportunities to explore temporal and spatial patterns in hydrological signatures for improving streamflow forecasting. The purpose of this study is to adapt and benchmark several state‐of‐the‐art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet, Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), and GraphWaveNet, for end‐to‐end graph learning. We explicitly represent river basins as nodes in a graph, learn the spatiotemporal nodal dependencies, and then use the learned relations to predict streamflow simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. The efficacy of the developed GNN models is investigated using the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large‐sample Studies (CAMELS) data set under two settings, fixed graph topology (transductive learning), and variable graph topology (inductive learning), with the latter applicable to prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Results indicate that GNNs are generally robust and computationally efficient, achieving similar or better performance than a baseline model trained using the long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Further analyses are conducted to interpret the graph learning process at the edge and node levels and to investigate the effect of different model configurations. We conclude that graph learning constitutes a viable machine learning‐based method for aggregating spatiotemporal information from a multitude of sources for streamflow forecasting

Sun, Alexander Y.↗
DOE OSTI2019

An application of survival analysis to disruption prediction via Random Forests

One of the most pressing challenges facing the fusion community is adequately mitigating or, even better, avoiding disruptions of tokamak plasmas. However, before this can be done, disruptions must first be predicted with sufficient warning time to actuate a response. The established field of survival analysis provides a convenient statistical framework for time-to-event (i.e. time-to-disruption) studies. This paper demonstrates the integration of an existing disruption prediction machine learning algorithm with the Kaplan-Meier estimator of survival probability. Specifically discussed are the implied warning times from binary classification of disruption databases and the interpretation of output signals from Random Forest algorithms trained and tested on these databases. This survival analysis approach is applied to both smooth and noisy test data to highlight important features of the survival and hazard functions. In addition, this method is applied to three Alcator C-Mod plasma discharges and compared to a threshold-based scheme for triggering alarms. In one case, both techniques successfully predict the disruption; although, in another, neither warns of the impending disruption with enough time to mitigate. For the final discharge, the survival analysis approach could avoid the false alarm triggered by the threshold method. Limitations of this analysis and opportunities for future work are also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nanoscale defect evaluation framework combining real-time transmission electron microscopy and integrated machine learning-particle filter estimation

Observation of dynamic processes by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is an attractive technique to experimentally analyze materials’ nanoscale phenomena and understand the microstructure-properties relationships in nanoscale. Even if spatial and temporal resolutions of real-time TEM increase significantly, it is still difficult to say that the researchers quantitatively evaluate the dynamic behavior of defects. Images in TEM video are a two-dimensional projection of three-dimensional space phenomena, thus missing information must be existed that makes image’s uniquely accurate interpretation challenging. Therefore, even though they are still a clustering high-dimensional data and can be compressed to two-dimensional, conventional statistical methods for analyzing images may not be powerful enough to track nanoscale behavior by removing various artifacts associated with experiment; and automated and unbiased processing tools for such big-data are becoming mission-critical to discover knowledge about unforeseen behavior. We have developed a method to quantitative image analysis framework to resolve these problems, in which machine learning and particle filter estimation are uniquely combined. The quantitative and automated measurement of the dislocation velocity in an Fe-31Mn-3Al-3Si autunitic steel subjected to the tensile deformation was performed to validate the framework, and an intermittent motion of the dislocations was quantitatively analyzed. The framework is successfully classifying, identifying and tracking nanoscale objects; these are not able to be accurately implemented by the conventional mean-path based analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging interpolation models and error bounds for verifiable scientific machine learning

Effective verification and validation techniques for modern scientific machine learning workflows are challenging to devise. Statistical methods are abundant and easily deployed, but often rely on speculative assumptions about the data and methods involved. Error bounds for classical interpolation techniques can provide mathematically rigorous estimates of accuracy, but often are difficult or impractical to determine computationally. Here, in this work, we present a best-of-both-worlds approach to verifiable scientific machine learning by demonstrating that (1) multiple standard interpolation techniques have informative error bounds that can be computed or estimated efficiently; (2) comparative performance among distinct interpolants can aid in validation goals; (3) deploying interpolation methods on latent spaces generated by deep learning techniques enables some interpretability for black-box models. We present a detailed case study of our approach for predicting lift-drag ratios from airfoil images. Code developed for this work is available in a public Github repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

State predictive information bottleneck

We report the ability to make sense of the massive amounts of high-dimensional data generated from molecular dynamics simulations is heavily dependent on the knowledge of a low-dimensional manifold (parameterized by a reaction coordinate or RC) that typically distinguishes between relevant metastable states, and which captures the relevant slow dynamics of interest. Methods based on machine learning and artificial intelligence have been proposed over the years to deal with learning such low-dimensional manifolds, but they are often criticized for a disconnect from more traditional and physically interpretable approaches. To deal with such concerns, in this work we propose a deep learning based state predictive information bottleneck approach to learn the RC from high-dimensional molecular simulation trajectories. We demonstrate analytically and numerically how the RC learnt in this approach is connected to the committor in chemical physics and can be used to accurately identify transition states. A crucial hyperparameter in this approach is the time delay or how far into the future the algorithm should make predictions about. Through careful comparisons for benchmark systems, we demonstrate that this hyperparameter choice gives useful control over how coarse-grained we want the metastable state classification of the system to be. We thus believe that this work represents a step forward in systematic application of deep learning based ideas to molecular simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of the Biot–Gassmann Fluid Substitution Method and Machine Learning-Based Velocity–Stress Relationship for Estimating In Situ Stresses

Recent advancements have shown that in situ stresses can be reliably estimated through an integrated machine/deep learning (ML/DL)-based framework, which relies on models trained and validated using true triaxial ultrasonic velocity (TUV) experimental data that involve measurements of ultrasonic velocity in saturated rocks under varying stress configurations. However, when the goal is to interpret lower frequency measurements, it may be more appropriate to run experiments on dry rocks and then obtain Biot–Gassmann-derived equivalent saturated velocities (low-frequency approximation) and employ these quantities for training ML/DL models to predict in situ stress. Whether the dispersion effect of frequency on the velocity–stress relationship substantially impacts in situ stress prediction is an important and unresolved question. This work presents an enhancement of ML/DL-based workflow by training and implementing ML/DL models using equivalent saturated acoustic velocities (low-frequency) obtained by applying Biot–Gassmann fluid substitution on the ultrasonic velocities of dry cores. The models were trained on TUV data sets derived from three subsurface cores extracted from the geothermal well 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site. Each core was subjected to 75 unique stress configurations for velocity measurement in the dry state. The ML/DL trained on the TUV data set with equivalent saturated velocities demonstrated promising performance to predict in situ stress in subsurface geological rocks using velocity–stress relationships with R 2 of 0.86, 0.971, and 0.975 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.59, 1.92, and 1.80 for validation/testing phases of vertical, minimum horizontal, and maximum horizontal stress models, respectively. Additionally, interpretation and explanation by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further improved scientific validation and model reliability for estimating in situ stresses.

colloids↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Diagnosis through AI-driven Analysis of Reflectance Confocal Microscopy

Reflectance Confocal Microscopy (RCM) is a non-invasive imaging technique used in biomedical research and clinical dermatology. It provides virtual high-resolution images of the skin and superficial tissues, reducing the need for physical biopsies. RCM employs a laser light source to illuminate the tissue, capturing the reflected light to generate detailed images of microscopic structures at various depths. Recent studies explored AI and machine learning, particularly CNNs, for analyzing RCM images. Our study proposes a segmentation strategy based on textural features to identify clinically significant regions, empowering dermatologists in effective image interpretation and boosting diagnostic confidence. This approach promises to advance dermatological diagnosis and treatment.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗
DOE OSTI2025

Path Sampling for Rare Events Boosted by Machine Learning

The study by Jung et al. introduced Artificial Intelligence for Molecular Mechanism Discovery (AIMMD), a novel sampling algorithm that integrates machine learning to enhance the efficiency of transition path sampling (TPS). By enabling on-the-fly estimation of the committor probability and simultaneously deriving a human-interpretable reaction coordinate, AIMMD offers a robust framework for elucidating the mechanistic pathways of complex molecular processes. Here, this commentary provides a discussion and critical analysis of the core AIMMD framework, explores its recent extensions, and offers an assessment of the method’s potential impact and limitations.

Minh, Porhouy [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Event Classification Using Imperfect Real-world PMU Data

Here, this paper studies robust event classification using imperfect real-world phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. By analyzing the real-world PMU data, we find it is challenging to directly use this dataset for event classifiers due to the low data quality observed in PMU measurements and event logs. To address these challenges, we develop a novel machine learning framework for training robust event classifiers, which consists of three main steps: data preprocessing, fine-grained event data extraction, and feature engineering. Specifically, the data preprocessing step addresses the data quality issues of PMU measurements (e.g., bad data and missing data); in the fine-grained event data extraction step, a model-free event detection method is developed to accurately localize the events from the inaccurate event timestamps in the event logs; and the feature engineering step constructs the event features based on the patterns of different event types, in order to improve the performance and the interpretability of the event classifiers. Based on the proposed framework, we develop a workflow for event classification using the real-world PMU data streaming into the system in real time. Using the proposed framework, robust event classifiers can be efficiently trained based on many off-the-shelf lightweight machine learning models. Numerical experiments using the real-world dataset from the Western Interconnection of the U.S power transmission grid show that the event classifiers trained under the proposed framework can achieve high classification accuracy while being robust against low-quality data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗