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At least 415 records · Page 23

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NASA NTRS2023

The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections

Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty from Global Gridded Crop Models and Global Climate Models under future climate change. We performed a cluster analysis to identify distinct groups of ensemble members based on their projected outcomes, revealing unique patterns in crop yield projections and corresponding uncertainty levels, particularly for wheat and soybean. Furthermore, our findings suggest that approximately six Global Gridded Crop Models and 10 Global Climate Models are sufficient to capture modeling uncertainty, while a cluster-based selection of 3-4 Global Gridded Crop Models effectively represents the full ensemble. The contribution of individual Global Gridded Crop Models to overall uncertainty varies depending on region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of specific models when selecting models for local-scale applications. Our results emphasize the importance of model composition and ensemble size in identifying the primary sources of uncertainty in crop yield projections, offering valuable guidance for optimizing ensemble configurations in climate-crop modeling studies tailored to specific applications.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2023

Capitol Reef Ecological Conservation: Mapping Vegetation Functional Groups to Inform Invasive Vegetation Management, Ecological Conservation and Restoration in Capitol Reef National Park

Invasive exotic plant (IEP) species have been found within the park boundaries of Capitol Reef National Park (CARE) in Utah. Currently, remotely sensed datasets such as the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been used to investigate IEP species within the park, but validation of the national RAP program is necessary for informing decisions at a local scale. CARE seeks a remote monitoring solution that can precisely target managerial efforts within the park’s challenging terrain and hard-to-reach locations. To fulfill this objective, we harnessed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery and leveraged Random Forest (RF) modeling to generate classification maps characterizing vegetation functional groups for 2013 and 2022 within the park. Subsequently, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Idrisi TerrSet facilitated the production of a predicted classification map for 2033. The team also devised an annual grass probability map to accentuate areas impacted by exotic grasses. A comparative assessment between the RF classification map and the RAP map for 2022 revealed an overall agreement of 47.41%, with disparities primarily arising from differences in bare soil and shrub areas. Significantly, the 2022 RF-generated classification map showcased an impressive overall accuracy of 92.17%. In short, the probability map, the land cover change detection spanning 2013 to 2022, and the forecasting of observed trends into the future aids in the evaluation of invasive plant impacts and facilitation of CARE’s preparedness for potential ecological disturbances. Notably, in comparison to the RAP, the RF classification method generates functional group maps that are more representative of the study area.

Vanchy Li↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗

NASA NTRS2023

Mobile Observations of Ozone and Aerosols in Alabama: Southeastern US Summer Pollution and Coastal Variability

We present a detailed analysis of measurements of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols collected using multiple platforms and instruments during a 5-day mini-campaign in Alabama, for improving our understanding of the chemistry and air quality in the Southeastern United States. Our study features the first on-road O 3 lidar profiling on highways and the coordinated airborne observations that captured O 3 and aerosol structures associated with synoptic weather conditions, stratospheric intrusions, wildfire smoke transport, and enhancements in urban areas. The Doppler wind lidar data suggest that the vertical structures and variability of O 3 and aerosols at Dauphin Island, a coastal site in the Gulf of Mexico, were related to both the synoptic flow and local-scale land-sea breeze circulation. The onshore gulf breeze, which typically started in the afternoon, helped to quickly dilute air pollutants near the surface, resulting in large gradients toward inland areas. In contrast, gradients were much smaller on days without a gulf breeze. O 3 and humidity were highly anti-correlated in the lower free troposphere, but weakly anti-correlated in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) suggesting more complicated emissions and sink of O 3 in the PBL. Our on-road and airborne measurement strategies to quantify the vertical and horizontal chemical gradients will be useful for future geostationary satellite validation.

Shi Kuang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Quality Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification by Fusing Model, Satellite, and in-Situ Data

The goal of our project is to integrate diverse global and local air quality data sources using the cloud computing platform of Google Earth Engine to provide synthesized estimates and forecasts of air quality at a local scale but with a global scope freely accessible by air quality managers worldwide, facilitating their decision-making processes.

Carl Malings↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Vertical Patterns in Chlorophyll-A Derived From A Data Assimilating Model of Satellite-Based Ocean Color

Satellite-based sensors of ocean color have become the primary tool to infer changes in surface chlorophyll, while BGC-Argo floats are now filling the information gap at depth. Here we use BGC-Argo data to assess depth-resolved information on chlorophyll-a derived from an ocean biogeochemical model constrained by the assimilation of surface ocean color remote sensing. The data-assimilating model replicates well the general seasonality and meridional gradients in surface and depth-resolved chlorophyll-a inferred from the float array in the Southern Ocean. On average, the model tends to overestimate float-based chlorophyll, particularly at times and locations of high productivity such as the beginning of the spring bloom, subtropical deep chlorophyll maxima, and non-iron limited regions of the Southern Ocean. The highest model RMSE in the upper 50 m with respect to the float array is of 0.6 mg Chl m −3 , which should allow the detection of seasonal changes in float-based biomass (varying between 0.01 and >1 mg Chl m −3 ) but might hinder the identification of subtle changes in chlorophyll at narrow local scales. Both model and float profiling data show good agreement with in situ data from station ALOHA, with model estimates showing a slight accuracy edge in inferring depth-resolved observations. Uncertainties in float bio-optical estimates impede their use as a reliable benchmark for validation, but the general qualitative agreement between model and float data provides confidence in the ability of model to replicate biogeochemical features below the surface, where data is not directly constrained by the assimilation of satellite ocean color.

Lionel A Quintero↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Of Rotation on the Sun’s Subsurface Structure

It is well known that the dynamical evolution of subsurface flows of the Sun and magnetic fields is strongly linked to rotation. Observational investigation of sub surface structuring and dynamics can be performed only with relatively low resolution using helioseismic inversion techniques. To confidently model the coupling of turbulent convection, magnetic fields, and rotation in the solar interior, we perform advanced radiative hydrodynamic and MHD modeling of local scales. To explore the coupling effects in the upper layers of the convection zone, we present results of analysis from a series of hydrodynamic simulations performed for a 25-Mm-deep computational domain at different latitudes obtained for 1) the Carrington rotation rate at all latitudes and 2) the realistic rotation rate from the global helioseismic inversions during the solar minimum. Using additional 3D radiative hydrodynamic models, we reveal how physical properties of the solar convection are affected by rotation.

Heliophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

MESOSCALE THERMAL TRANSPORT MEASUREMENTS OF MULTI-PHASE AND POROUS NUCLEAR FUELS USING A SQUARE-WAVE PULSE THERMOREFLECTANCE TECHNIQUE

The safe and efficient operation of nuclear reactors require accurate knowledge of peak temperatures in the fuel assemblies. The temperature profiles are governed by the thermal transport properties of the fuel, namely the thermal conductivities (k) and thermal diffusivities (D). These values can be very difficult to measure as they are known to vary considerably from the measured bulk values of the fresh fuel, and quickly degrade with increasing burnup [1 -3] . Laser-based techniques have been effectively used for non-destructive and non-contact thermal transport measurements of a wide variety of materials, including nuclear materials [4-6] that would otherwise prove too hazardous or difficult to measure otherwise. In this study, a new thermoreflectance technique known as square-pulse transient thermoreflectance (SPTR) is described and used to determine the mesoscale thermal diffusivity of both uranium sesquisilicide (U3Si2) and uranium nitride (UN) phases in a composite fuel with micron level spatial resolution [7]. This technique employs a rapid train of square-wave pulses from an excitation laser to create a periodic heat flux on a gold coated sample surface. Surface adsorption results in transient film temperatures and hence rapid fluctuations in thermoreflectance that can be measured via a detection laser coupled with a digital oscilloscope. The lasers are coaxially focused on the sample surface, allowing for a sample measurement area of a single convolved laser spot size (~2 µm). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key measurement parameters of this technique using reference materials with a range of thermal conductivities comparable to those of both ceramic, composite, and metal nuclear fuel types (1.4 – 27.2 W/m-K). The reference materials were measured using the new technique as well as a spatial-domain thermoreflectance technique (SDTR) previously reported for a comparison [8]. Additionally, measurements of several U3Si2 and UN phase regions of a polished UN/U3Si2 (70/30 vol.%) sample were taken, and the resulting calculated D values are reported, with both techniques showing excellent agreement between samples. This technique was used to scan a multiphase region at 5 micron increments to generate a local diffusivity map, demonstrating the utility of the techniques for measuring thermal transport properties in specimens with precipitates and secondary phases. Furthermore, the technique is currently being applied to measure thermal properties of Fast Flux Test Reactor (FFTR) irradiated metal fuel specimens whose porous microstructure make it very difficult to measure using other techniques. Comparison of the local scale measurements are compared with the pre-irradiated fuel samples to show the degradation of thermal transport in fuels due to pores from fission gas bubbles and other irradiation induced defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating climate change into risk-informed resilience planning

In response to the development of portfolio-wide Climate Action Plans by federal agencies, federal sites are working to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their resilience assessments. However, it can be challenging to incorporate climate change scenarios into resilience assessments given the uncertainty inherent in climate change modeling. Incorporating these factors into a resilience plan requires an understanding of what the different climate scenarios mean, as well as how to estimate potential impacts of climate change on hazard occurrence on a regional, or even local, scale under different scenarios. We discuss approaches to incorporating this data into risk-informed resilience assessment processes, such as those implemented in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program’s (FEMP) Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) and the Sustainability Performance Division’s (SPD) Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) Risk Assessment Tool. We also describe the climate scenarios and the availability of hazard data for site resilience planning, based on modeling included in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and state-level reports. We present examples from the TRN risk assessment and the VARP Risk Assessment Tool to illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to incorporate climate change projections into the resilience planning process.

Rabinowitz, Hannah S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An AI-Enabled MODEX Framework for Improving Predictability of Subsurface Water Storage across Local and Continental Scales

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods. We propose an AI-enabled model-experiment (MODEX) framework to improve the predictability of subsurface water storage (SWS) from local to conus scales in a changing environment by taking advantage of DOE’s observation and simulation capabilities, as well as to inform the model and the observation development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

An algorithm for recognition and localization of rotated and scaled objects

An algorithm for recognition and localization of objects, which is invariant to displacement and rotation, is extended to the recognition and localization of differently scaled, rotated, and displaced objects. The proposed algorithm provides an optimum way to find if a match exists between two objects that are scaled, rotated, and displaced, while the number of computations is of the same order as for equally scaled objects.

Peli, T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Feasibility Studies as Catalysts for Capacity Building: The DEVELOP Experience from Local to National Scale

The NASA DEVELOP National Program occupies a unique niche in the capacity development ecosystem. It is not a traditional training or educational program primarily focused on individual capacity, nor is it a full-scale co-development program focused on institutional capacity. NASA DEVELOP conducts 10-week feasibility studies that bring together teams of participants and decision making partners. The participants are competitively selected students and emerging or transitioning professionals, who build their STEM and professional skillsets. The partners are groups that have decision making requirements that may benefit from insights that Earth observations can provide. The interaction of the participants and partners over the intense 10-week time period is especially well adapted to building capacity at smaller scales. DEVELOP projects have shown good results when working at municipal and smaller administrative levels like U.S. counties. Even when working with higher administrative levels like provinces, U.S states, or even national or federal levels, DEVELOP has shown most success when working with more localized institutions like state forests or national parks. This presentation will recount case studies of how DEVELOP projects worked with more local or “localized” partners and compare with outcomes with partners at other scales: state/provincial and federal/national levels.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Feasibility Studies as Catalysts for Capacity Building: The DEVELOP Experience from Local to National Scale

Capacity Building↗

NASA NTRS2019

X-ray Binary Luminosity Function Scaling Relations for Local Galaxies Based on Subgalactic Modeling

We present new Chandra constraints on the X-ray luminosity functions(XLFs)of X-ray binary(XRB)populations, as well as their scaling relations, for a sample of 38 nearby galaxies(D = 3.4–29 Mpc). Our galaxy sample is drawn primarily from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey(SINGS)and contains a wealth of Chandra(5.8 Ms total)and multiwavelength data, allowing for star formation rates(SFRs)and stellar masses(M⁎)to be measured on subgalactic scales. We divided the 2478 X-ray-detected sources into 21 subsamples in bins of specific SFR(sSFR ≡ SFR/M⁎)and constructed XLFs. To model the XLF dependence on sSFR, we fit a global XLF model, containing contributions from high-mass XRBs(HMXBs), low-mass XRBs(LMXBs), and background sources from the cosmic X-ray background that respectively scale with SFR, M⁎, and sky area. We find an HMXB XLF that is more complex in shape than previously reported and an LMXB XLF that likely varies with sSFR, potentially due to an age dependence. When applying our global model to XLF data for each individual galaxy, we discover a few galaxy XLFs that significantly deviate from our model beyond statistical scatter. Most notably, relatively low-metallicity galaxies have an excess of HMXBs above≈10^(38)erg/s, and elliptical galaxies that have relatively rich populations of globular clusters(GCs)show excesses of LMXBs compared to the global model. Additional modeling of how the XRB XLF depends on stellar age, metallicity, and GC specific frequency is required to sufficiently characterize the XLFs of galaxies.

Bret D. Lehmer↗

NASA NTRS1992

Wrinkle ridges on Venusian plains: Indicators of shallow crustal stress orientations at local and regional scales

The plains regions of Venus exhibit a complex array of structural features, including deformation belts of various types, wrinkle ridges, grabens, and enigmatic radar-bright linears. Probably the most pervasive of these structures are the wrinkle ridges, which appear to be morphologically identical to their counterparts on the Moon and Mars. Almost all workers agree that wrinkle ridges result from horizontal compressive stresses in the crust; they either are explained as flexural fold structures, or alternatively as scarps or folds related to reverse faults. Wrinkle ridges generally are narrow, have small amplitudes, and commonly are closely spaced as well, characteristics that imply a shallow crustal origin. If wrinkle ridges are due to horizontally directed compressive stresses in the shallow crust, as generally has been inferred, then the trends of these features provide a means to map both local and regional orientations of principal stresses in the uppermost part of the venusian crust: maximum compressive stress is normal to the ridges, minimum compressive stress is normal to the topographic surface, and thus the wrinkle ridge trends trace the orientation of the intermediate principal stress. Because there are few plains areas on Venus totally devoid of wrinkle ridges, it should be possible to establish a number of interesting relationships on a near-global scale by mapping the trends of wrinkle ridges wherever they occur. The present study is addressing three questions: (1) Do the trends of wrinkle ridges define domains that are large relative to the sizes of individual plains regions? If so, can these domains be related to large-scale topographic or geologic features? (2) Are regional trends of wrinkle ridges affected by local features such as coronae? If so, is it possible to determine the relative ages of the far-field and local stresses from detailed study of trend inheritance or superposition relationships? (3) What is the relationship between wrinkle ridges and the larger ridges that make up ridge belts?

Mcgill, George E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Global-, local-, and intermediate-scale structures in prototype spiral galaxies

The relationship between galactic spiral structure and the matter in the underlying disk constitutes one of the central problems in galactic dynamics. In Bertin et al. (1989), disk matter characterized by a low-dispersive speed is shown to be capable of playing a key role in the generation of large-scale spiral structure. In Roberts et al. (1992), this self-gravitating, low-dispersion disk matter is shown to be capable of playing an essential role in the formation of structure on local and intermediate scales. Both in computed cases where large-scale spiral structure is present and in those where it is not, the same dominant physical processes and fundamental dynamical mechanisms are active on local scales. The new perception, in which large-scale and small-scale phenomena operate somewhat independently as evidenced in the computational studies, permits a range of flocculent, multiarmed, and grand design spiral types to be simulated. In particular, grand design galaxies with ragged appearances exhibiting spurs, arm branchings, and interarm bridges in addition to the major spiral arms, similar to those often observed, can be generated.

Roberts, William W., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Universal scaling of weak localization in graphene due to bias-induced dispersion decoherence

The differential conductance of graphene is shown to exhibit a zero-bias anomaly at low temperatures, arising from a suppression of the quantum corrections due to weak localization and electron interactions. A simple rescaling of these data, free of any adjustable parameters, shows that this anomaly exhibits a universal, temperature- (T) independent form. According to this, the differential conductance is approximately constant at small voltages (V < kBT/e), while at larger voltages it increases logarithmically with the applied bias. For theoretical insight into the origins of this behaviour, which is inconsistent with electron heating, we formulate a model for weak-localization in the presence of nonequilibrium transport. According to this model, the applied voltage causes unavoidable dispersion decoherence, which arises as diffusing electron partial waves, with a spread of energies defined by the value of the applied voltage, gradually decohere with one another as they diffuse through the system. The decoherence yields a universal scaling of the conductance as a function of eV/kBT, with a logarithmic variation for eV/kBT > 1, variations in accordance with the results of experiment. Our theoretical description of nonequilibrium transport in the presence of this source of decoherence exhibits strong similarities with the results of experiment, including the aforementioned rescaling of the conductance and its logarithmic variation as a function of the applied voltage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Upconversion on the Micrometer Scale: Impact of Local Heterogeneity

The properties of perovskite/naphtho[2,3-a]pyrene (NaPy) upconversion devices are investigated by a combination of atomic force microscopy and photoluminescence mapping to understand the role of microscopic heterogeneity in the ensemble device properties. The results emphasize strong microscopic inhomogeneity across the perovskite/NaPy upconversion device due to local formation of NaPy microcrystals. NaPy shows emission from three distinct states in the solid state: S 1 ′ emission at 520 nm, excimer emission at 560 nm, and S 1 ″ emission at 620 nm. Clear spatial differences in the emission spectrum under 405 nm excitation are found, highlighting that there is a strong microcrystal-to-microcrystal variation in the optical properties─emphasizing a need for multimodal measurements. Furthermore, our results indicate that microcrystals with strong emission from the strongly coupled low-energy state S 1 ″ (J-dimer) show much higher upconversion intensity than those with dominant emission from the high-energy S 1 ′ state (I-aggregate). Hence, our results suggest that microcrystals with strong emission from the low-energy state S 1 ″ act as isolated hotspots for upconversion.

Crystals↗