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At least 415 records · Page 23

Improving the accuracy of discretisations of the vector transport equation on the lowest-order quadrilateral Raviart-Thomas finite elements

Within finite element models of fluids, vector-valued fields such as velocity or momentum variables are commonly discretised using the Raviart-Thomas elements. However, when using the lowest-order quadrilateral Raviart-Thomas elements, standard finite element discretisations of the vector transport equation typically have a low order of spatial accuracy. This paper describes two schemes that improve the accuracy of transporting such vector-valued fields on two-dimensional curved manifolds. The first scheme that is presented reconstructs the transported field in a higher-order function space, where the transport equation is then solved. The second scheme applies a mixed finite element formulation to the vector transport equation, simultaneously solving for the transported field and its vorticity. In this work, an approach to stabilising this mixed vector-vorticity formulation is presented that uses a Streamline Upwind Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) method. These schemes are then demonstrated, along with their accuracy properties, through some numerical tests. Two new test cases are used to assess the transport of vector-valued fields on curved manifolds, solving the vector transport equation in isolation. The improvement of the schemes is also shown through two standard test cases for rotating shallow-water models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

“Quantum Geometric Nesting” and Solvable Model Flat-Band Systems

We introduce the concept of “quantum geometric nesting” (QGN) to characterize the idealized ordering tendencies of certain flat-band systems implicit in the geometric structure of the flat-band subspace. Perfect QGN implies the existence of an infinite class of local interactions that can be explicitly constructed and give rise to solvable ground states with various forms of possible fermion bilinear order, including flavor ferromagnetism, density waves, and superconductivity. For the ideal Hamiltonians constructed in this way, we show that certain aspects of the low-energy spectrum can also be exactly computed including, in the superconducting case, the phase stiffness. Examples of perfect QGN include flat bands with certain symmetries (e.g., chiral or time reversal) and non-symmetry-related cases exemplified with an engineered model for pair-density wave. Extending this approach, we obtain exact superconducting ground states with nontrivial pairing symmetry. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dissipation Pathways in a Photosynthetic Complex

Determining how energy flows within and between molecules is crucial for understanding chemical reactions, material properties, and even vital processes such as photosynthesis. While the general principles of energy transfer are well established, elucidating the specific molecular pathways by which energy is funneled remains challenging, as it requires tracking energy flow in complex molecular environments. Here, we demonstrate how photon excitation energy is partially dissipated in the light-harvesting Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex, mediating the excitation energy transfer from light-harvesting chlorosomes to the photosynthetic reaction center in green sulfur bacteria. Specifically, we isolate the contribution of the protein and specific vibrational modes of the pigment molecules to the energy dynamics. For this, we introduce an efficient computational implementation of a recently proposed theory of dissipation pathways for open quantum systems, based on second-order perturbation theory in the electronic couplings. Using it and a state-of-the-art FMO model with highly structured and chromophore-specific spectral densities, we demonstrate that energy dissipation is dominated by low-frequency modes (<800 cm –1 ) as their energy range is near-resonance with the energy gaps between electronic states of the pigments. We identify the most important modes for dissipation to be in-plane breathing modes (∼200 cm –1 ) of the bacteriochlorophylls in the complex. Conversely, far-detuned intramolecular vibrations with higher frequencies (>800 cm –1 ) play no role in dissipation. Interestingly, the FMO complex first needs to borrow energy from the environment to release excess photonic energy, indicating that the energy exchange between the system and thermal environment is not strictly unidirectional in time but involves a transient thermally activated step. Beyond their fundamental value, these insights can guide the development of artificial light-harvesting devices and, more broadly, engineer environments for chemical and quantum control tasks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crystalline Order Yet Glass-Like Heat Transport Driven by Hidden Local Distortions as the Structural Origin of Ultralow Thermal Conductivity in AgErTe 2

Given their rich chemical diversity and the interplay among the p-, d-, and f-orbitals of chalcogens, transition metals, and lanthanides, respectively, rare-earth transition-metal chalcogenides exhibit a wide variety of structural, magnetic, and transport phenomena. As a result, they form a particularly appealing platform for investigating structure–property relationships, emergent electronic and magnetic behaviors, and thermal transport. Here we investigate AgErTe 2 as a model system to understand phonon-glass behavior in ordered crystalline solids, which establishes the design principles for thermal barrier coatings and next-generation thermoelectrics. The local bonding asymmetry and lattice softness suppress the inherently low lattice thermal conductivity, resembling the characteristics of amorphous materials. This suppression is significantly influenced by local off-centering of Ag atoms, which breaks lattice periodicity while maintaining global crystallinity. The presence of antibonding states just below the Fermi level, arising from Ag 4d and Te 5p orbital interactions, leads to lattice softening and destabilizes ideal tetrahedral coordination, resulting in a pseudo Jahn–Teller distortion. Furthermore, the coexistence of weaker, more polarizable Ag–Te bonds and stronger Er–Te bonds creates a complex vibrational landscape enriched with low-frequency modes and enhanced phonon scattering. A pronounced disparity in interatomic force constants gives rise to highly localized, low-energy optical phonons linked to Ag rattling. These flat vibrational modes exhibit strong coupling with transverse acoustic phonons, resulting in ultrashort phonon lifetimes and mean free paths approaching interatomic distances. These features collectively enhance phonon scattering across a broad range of length and energy scales. This work offers a framework for engineering suppressed thermal conductivity in crystalline systems without the introduction of alloying elements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine learning assisted derivation of minimal low-energy models for metallic magnets

Abstract We consider the problem of extracting a low-energy spin Hamiltonian from a triangular Kondo Lattice Model (KLM). The non-analytic dependence of the effective spin-spin interactions on the Kondo exchange excludes the use of perturbation theory beyond the second order. We then introduce a Machine Learning (ML) assisted protocol to extract effective two- and four-spin interactions. The resulting spin model reproduces the phase diagram of the original KLM as a function of magnetic field and single-ion anisotropy and reveals the effective four-spin interactions that stabilize the field-induced skyrmion crystal phase. Moreover, this model enables the computation of static and dynamical properties with a much lower numerical cost relative to the original KLM. A comparison of the dynamical spin structure factor in the fully polarized phase computed with both models reveals a good agreement for the magnon dispersion even though this information was not included in the training data set.

Sharma, Vikram (ORCID:0000000189105519)↗

Study of phase decoherence in GeSn (8%) through measurements of the weak antilocalization effect

Alloying germanium with tin offers a means to modulate germanium's electronic structure, enabling a greater degree of control over quantum properties such as the retention of the phase or spin of the electron wave. However, the extent to which the presence of high dopant concentrations in GeSn alters these quantum behaviors is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the role of dopant concentrations on phase coherence through measurements of the weak antilocalization (WAL) effect at temperatures between 30 mK and 10 K in p-GeSn (8%) thin films, which were doped to a series of carrier densities on the order of 10 12 cm –2 . Phase coherence and spin–orbit lengths were extracted from the magnetoconductivities using the 2D Hikami–Larkin–Nagaoka model. Phase coherence lengths peaked at 577, 593, and 737 nm for the low-, mid-, and high-density samples, while upper limits on the spin–orbit lengths of less than 25 nm were relatively independent of carrier density and temperature. The phase coherence lengths increased as the temperature decreased but changed only minimally with carrier density, contrary to common models of temperature-dependent inelastic scattering. Saturation of the phase coherence lengths occurred below 600 mK. Based on these findings, intrinsically generated inelastic scattering mechanisms such as two-level systems or impurity band scattering likely contribute to phase decoherence in these alloys. Our results provide insight into the inelastic scattering mechanisms of GeSn, while suggesting a need for further investigation into phase decoherence mechanisms in doped group-IV alloys.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of the SparTen High Performance Sparse Tensor Decomposition Software (Extended Analysis)

Tensor decomposition models play an increasingly important role in modern data science applications. One problem of particular interest is fitting a low-rank Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition model when the tensor has sparse structure and the tensor elements are nonnegative count data. SparTen is a high-performance C++ library which computes a low-rank decomposition using different solvers: a first-order quasi-Newton or a second-order damped Newton method, along with the appropriate choice of runtime parameters. Since default parameters in SparTen are tuned to experimental results in prior published work on a single real-world dataset conducted using MATLAB implementations of these methods, it remains unclear if the parameter defaults in SparTen are appropriate for general tensor data. Furthermore, it is unknown how sensitive algorithm convergence is to changes in the input parameter values. This report addresses these unresolved issues with large-scale experimentation on three benchmark tensor data sets. Experiments were conducted on several different CPU architectures and replicated with many initial states to establish generalized profiles of algorithm convergence behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-standard neutrino interactions in light mediator models at reactor experiments

Compared to other neutrino sources, the huge anti-neutrino fluxes at nuclear reactor based experiments empower us to derive stronger bounds on non-standard interactions of neutrinos with electrons mediated by light scalar/vector mediators. At neutrino energy around 200 keV reactor anti-neutrino flux is at least an order of magnitude larger compared to the solar flux. The atomic and crystal form factors of the detector materials related to the details of the atomic structure becomes relevant at this energy scale as the momentum transfers would be small. Non-standard neutrino-electron interaction mediated by light scalar/vector mediator arises naturally in many low-scale models. We also propose one such new model with a light scalar mediator. Here, we investigate the parameter space of such low-scale models in reactor based neutrino experiments with low threshold Ge and Si detectors, and find the prospect of probing/ruling out the relevant parameter space by finding the projected sensitivity at 90% confidence level by performing a $χ$ 2 -analysis. We find that a detector capable of discriminating between electron recoil and nuclear recoil signal down to a very low threshold such as 5 eV placed in reactor based experiment would be able to probe a larger region in parameter space compared to the previously explored region. A Ge (Si) detector with 10 kg-yr exposure and 1 MW reactor anti-neutrino flux would be able to probe the scalar and vector mediators with masses below 1 keV for coupling products $\sqrt{g_vg_e}$ ~ 1 × 10 -6 (9.5 × 10 -7 ) and 1 × 10 -7 (8 × 10 -8 ), respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The three-dimensional structure of black hole accretion flows within the plunging region

ABSTRACT We analyse, using new analytical models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations, the three-dimensional properties of accretion flows inside the plunging region of black hole spacetimes (i.e. at radii smaller than the innermost stable circular orbit). These simulations are of thick discs, with aspect ratios of order unity $h/r \sim 1$, and with a magnetic field geometry given by the standard low-magnetization ‘SANE’ configuration. This work represents the first step in a wider analysis of this highly relativistic region. We show that analytical expressions derived in the ‘thin disc’ limit describe the numerical results remarkably well, despite the large aspect ratio of the flow. We further demonstrate that accretion within this region is typically mediated via spiral arms, and that the geometric properties of these spiral structures can be understood with a simple analytical model. These results highlight how accretion within the plunging region is fundamentally two-dimensional in character, which may have a number of observational implications. We derive a modified theoretical description of the pressure within the plunging region which accounts for turbulent heating and may be of use to black hole image modelling.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Stripe magnetic order and field-induced quantum criticality in the perfect triangular-lattice antiferromagnet CsCeSe 2

The two-dimensional triangular-lattice antiferromagnet (TLAF) is a textbook example of frustrated magnetic systems. Despite its simplicity, the TLAF model exhibits a highly rich and complex magnetic phase diagram, featuring numerous distinct ground states that can be stabilized through frustrated next-nearest-neighbor couplings or anisotropy. In this paper, we report low-temperature magnetic properties of the TLAF material CsCeSe 2 . The inelastic neutron scattering (INS) together with specific heat measurements and density functional theory calculations of crystalline electric field suggest that the ground state of Ce ions is a Kramers doublet with strong easy-plane anisotropy. Elastic neutron scattering measurements demonstrate the presence of stripe-yz magnetic order that develops below T N = 0.35K, with the zero-field ordered moment of m Ce ≈ 0.65μ B . Application of magnetic field first increases the ordering temperature by about 20% at the intermediate field region and eventually suppresses the stripe order in favor of the field-polarized ferromagnetic state via a continuous quantum phase transition (QPT). The field-induced response demonstrates sizable anisotropy for different in-plane directions, B ∥ a and B ⊥ ⁢a, which indicates the presence of bond-dependent coupling in the spin Hamiltonian. As a result, we further show theoretically that the presence of anisotropic bond-dependent interactions can change the universality class of QPT for B ∥ a and B ⊥ ⁢a.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

ELM sputter erosion modeling of a tungsten coated small angle slot divertor in DIII-D

We modeled plasma edge localized mode (ELM) sputter erosion for a Small Angle Slot divertor with a tungsten coated region (SAS-VW), designed for experiments in the DIII-D tokamak, and proposed for use in future advanced tokamaks. The simulations use a free-streaming, 1000 eV, C +6 and D +1 ELM impingement model, with SOLPS-ITER, ITMC-DYN, and REDEP/WBC code packages for background plasma, material response, and erosion/redeposition respectively. The results show ELM'ing plasma gross and net tungsten erosion fluxes of the mixed-material C/W surface peaking at the slot entrance region, and an order of magnitude higher than for non-ELMs. The per-pulse erosion, however, remains low, of order 0.5 nm, due to expected moderate ELM frequencies and duration in DIII-D. Here, the ELMs result in a ~25x higher peak sputtered W current leaving the divertor slot region, towards the core plasma, compared to the ELM-free plasma case. The time-integrated escape current, however, may not significantly affect core plasma high-Z contamination concerns, for a 1% ELM duty factor, but may be an issue for higher frequency ELMs. In general, the modeling results appear favorable for effective testing of the SAS-VW divertor in DIII-D, and extrapolation to innovative divertor designs in future ITER-like and DEMO fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model

This report provides a brief description on the use of the Seal_Flux computer program developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). The Seal_Flux code simulates the flow of CO 2 through a low permeability rock horizon or seal formation overlying the storage reservoir into which CO 2 is injected. A two-phase, relative permeability approach with Darcy’s law is used for one-dimensional (1D) flow computations of CO 2 through the horizon in the vertical direction. The code also allows the simulation of time-dependent processes that can influence such flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

QONNX: Representing Arbitrary-Precision Quantized Neural Networks

We present extensions to the Open Neural Network Exchange (ONNX) intermediate representation format to represent arbitrary-precision quantized neural networks. We first introduce support for low precision quantization in existing ONNX-based quantization formats by leveraging integer clipping, resulting in two new backward-compatible variants: the quantized operator format with clipping and quantize-clip-dequantize (QCDQ) format. We then introduce a novel higher-level ONNX format called quantized ONNX (QONNX) that introduces three new operators -- Quant, BipolarQuant, and Trunc -- in order to represent uniform quantization. By keeping the QONNX IR high-level and flexible, we enable targeting a wider variety of platforms. We also present utilities for working with QONNX, as well as examples of its usage in the FINN and hls4ml toolchains. Finally, we introduce the QONNX model zoo to share low-precision quantized neural networks.

Pappalardo, Alessandro↗

Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency

The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of boundary layer simulation on predicting radioactive pollutant dispersion: a case study for HANARO Research Reactor using the WRF-MMIF-CALPUFF modeling system

Wind plays an important role in cases of unexpected radioactive pollutant dispersion, deciding distribution and concentration of the leaked substance. The accurate prediction of wind has been challenging in numerical weather prediction models, especially near the surface because of the complex interaction between turbulent flow and topographic effect. As such, in this study, we investigated the characteristics of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material (i.e. 137 Cs) according to the simulated boundary layer around the HANARO research nuclear reactor in Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF)-California Puff (CALPUFF) model system. We examined the impacts of orographic drag on wind field, stability calculation methods, and planetary boundary layer parameterizations on the dispersion of radioactive material under a radioactive leaking scenario. We found that inclusion of the orographic drag effect in the WRF model improved the wind prediction most significantly over the complex terrain area, leading the model system to estimate the radioactive concentration near the reactor more conservatively. We also emphasized the importance of the stability calculation method and employing the skillful boundary layer parameterization to ensure more accurate low atmospheric conditions, in order to simulate more feasible spatial distribution of the radioactive dispersion in leaking scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of silicon carbide as a divertor armor material in DIII-D H-mode discharges

Silicon carbide (SiC) represents a promising but largely untested plasma-facing material (PFM) for next-step fusion devices. In this work, an analytic mixed-material erosion model is developed by calculating the physical (via SDTrimSP) and chemical (via empirical scalings) sputtering yield from SiC, Si, and C. The Si content in the near-surface SiC layer is predicted to increase during D plasma bombardment due to more efficient physical and chemical sputtering of C relative to Si. Silicon erosion from SiC thereby occurs primarily from sputtering of the enriched Si layer, rather than directly from the SiC itself. SiC coatings on ATJ graphite, manufactured via chemical vapor deposition, were exposed to repeated H-mode plasma discharges in the DIII-D tokamak to test this model. The qualitative trends from analytic modeling are reproduced by the experimental measurements, obtained via spectroscopic inference using the S/XB method. Quantitatively the model slightly under-predicts measured erosion rates, which is attributed to uncertainties in the ion impact angle distribution, as well as the effect of edge-localized modes. After exposure, minimal changes to the macroscopic or microscopic surface morphology of the SiC coatings were observed. Compositional analysis reveals Si enrichment of about 10%, in line with expectations from the erosion model. Extrapolating to a DEMO-type device, an order-of-magnitude decrease in impurity sourcing, and up to a factor of 2 decrease in impurity radiation, is expected with SiC walls, relative to graphite, if low C plasma impurity content can be achieved. Furthermore, these favorable erosion properties motivate further investigations of SiC as a low-Z, non-metallic PFM.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗