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NASA NTRS2026

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Under Pressure: The Artemis I Heatshield Char Loss Investigation and Artemis II’s Successful Entry

Following the successful Artemis I skip reentry on December 11, 2022, unexpected char liberation from the Orion heat- shield prompted formation of an Anomaly Response Team to determine root cause and establish flight rationale and corrective actions for subsequent missions. Through a comprehensive investigation including detailed hardware analysis, modeling & simulation, and ground testing, the team determined that the low permeability Avcoat experienced extreme internal gas pressure buildup during the skip entry that could not adequately outgas, leading to crack formation and char liberation. Key discoveries included significant performance differences between permeable and impermeable heatshield regions and successful replication of the anomaly through ground testing. Based on extensive ground testing and analysis, Artemis II flew a modified trajectory without the skip entry to minimize crack-inducing conditions, and successfully splashed down on April 10, 2026 with significantly reduced char loss. For Artemis III and beyond, a corrective action was implemented to produce a more permeable version of Avcoat that will substantially reduce internal pressure accumulation during entry.

Artemis II↗

NASA NTRS2025

Lyotropic Liquid Crystalline Phase Behavior of Boron Nitride Nanotube Aqueous Dispersions

Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) are gaining significant interest due to their outstanding mechanical and thermal properties, as well as their potential to serve as a model nanorod system. Processing BNNT liquid crystalline (LC) dispersions enables precise control over BNNT orientation in macroscopic assemblies, while their low absorption in the visible spectrum facilitates studying LCs at exceptionally high concentrations. Here, we investigate the behavior of BNNTs in aqueous solutions stabilized by the surfactant sodium deoxycholate (SDC), examining the effect of BNNT purity and BNNT−SDC concentrations on lyotropic LC formation. We disperse up to 15wt% BNNT in SDC solutions and use polarized light microscopy to detail the transition from an isotropic state to a biphasic regime, where isotropic and nematic domains coexist due to phase separation, to a single fully nematic phase. Cryogenic electron microscopy provides direct evidence of BNNT alignment within nematic domains. Our results show that enhanced depletion-induced attractions, driven by increased surfactant concentration, lower the threshold concentration of BNNT required to form nematic domains. In contrast, low surfactant concentrations relative to BNNT result in insufficiently coated nanotube surfaces, leading to poor dispersions and BNNT aggregation. Additionally, we fabricate well-aligned BNNT films from aqueous LC dispersions. Our findings advance the understanding of BNNT LCs, offering insight into controlling their orientation and highlighting their potential for high-performance materials.

Joe Khoury↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selecting an Encapsulant for an Aerospace Superconducting Machine

Achieving larger benefits from electrified propulsion in single aisle aircraft (the largest commercial aircraft market segment) necessitates that a significant fraction of their 20 MW or greater propulsion system be electrified. These aircraft would require up to 10-20 of today’s state-of-the art machines, which have been demonstrated up to 2.5 MW for aerospace use, and could benefit further from 5 MW+ designs. However, when conventionally cooled, high power density machines still produce a significant amount of waste heat, translating into heavy thermal management and detracting from system benefits. Highly efficient fully superconducting electric machines (or those with a cryogenically cooled, high purity copper or aluminum stator) are a possible solution but have multiple barriers to overcome. One such barrier is the durability of superconducting windings. Superconductors are typically brittle, and encapsulants used to hold windings in place are a significant source of stress due to mismatches in coefficient of thermally induced contraction between ambient and operational temperatures (20 to 77 K). Lack of compliance between the materials at operational temperatures also adds significant stress. These encapsulants also form a thermal barrier that can be detrimental to cooling the superconductors. This work describes an initial study of commercially available encapsulants as it relates to superconducting machine applications, along with initial modeling of thermal stress in superconducting windings for a superconducting or cryogenically cooled stator in a 5 MW electric machine.

encapsulant↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selecting an Encapsulant for an Aerospace Superconducting Machine

Achieving larger benefits from electrified propulsion in single aisle aircraft (the largest commercial aircraft market segment) necessitates that a significant fraction of their 20 MW or greater propulsion system be electrified. 5 to possibly 20 of the MW-scale electric machines investigated by NASA would be required to meet this need. Approximately 10-20 of NASA’s MW-scale electric machines would be required to reach the necessary power levels. Therefore, electric machines of 5 MW or greater are of interest. However, conventionally cooled high power density MW-scale electric machines still produce a significant amount of waste heat, which makes obtaining these power levels problematic. Highly efficient fully superconducting electric machines (or those with a cryogenically cooled, high purity copper or aluminum stator) are a possible solution but have multiple barriers to be overcome. One such barrier is the durability of superconducting windings. Superconductors are typically brittle, and encapsulants used to hold windings in place are a significant source of stress because of the mismatches in coefficient of thermal expansion at temperatures between room temperature and operational temperatures (20 to 77 K). These encapsulants also form a thermal barrier that can be detrimental to cooling the superconductors. This paper describes an initial study of commercially available encapsulants as it relates to superconducting machine applications along with initial modeling of thermal stress in superconducting windings for a superconducting or cryogenically cooled stator in a 5 MW electric machine.

encapsulant↗

NASA NTRS2025

Erosion Behavior of Ti-hBN Multifunctional Coatings in A Custom-Made Planetary Test Rig at Extreme Lunar Temperatures

Spacecraft landings and takeoffs on the lunar surface, along with extreme temperature variations between day and night (-196 to 150° C), cause high-velocity dust impacts and erosion, resulting in the premature failure of structures. Ti/2 vol% hBN coatings were deposited using atmospheric (APS) and vacuum plasma spray (VPS) using cryo-milled powder feedstock to protect the structural components. The erosion performance of coatings at extreme lunar temperature regimes (-150 to 150° C) was evaluated in a custom-made planetary erosion test rig (PETR) at low (50 mph) and high impact velocities (250 mph). The mass loss of VPS coatings was reduced by 50% compared to the APS coatings and 40% compared to the Ti6Al4V substrate. The cryogenic temperature induces brittleness in the material, rendering it susceptible to extreme conditions of material loss. The particle impact-deformation behavior was captured using a high-speed camera to study the erosion mechanism. This analysis revealed chipping in substrates and brittle APS coatings, while particles rebounding and embedding were observed in VPS coatings. Energy calculations, aided by particle trajectory tracking from the high-speed camera, have conclusively shown that VPS coatings absorb 5–10% more energy than APS coatings during erosion tests. A modified erosion index was developed incorporating the fracture toughness and temperatures. New erosion models for brittle and ductile target materials are proposed for developing erosion-resistant material systems.

Abhijith Kunneparambil Sukumaran↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

The automation of pre-launch diagnostics for launch vehicles offers three potential benefits: improving safety, reducing cost, and reducing launch delays. The Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype demonstrated anomaly detection, fault detection, fault isolation, and diagnostics for the Ares I-X first-stage Thrust Vector Control and for the associated ground hydraulics while the vehicle was in the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and while it was on the launch pad. The prototype combines three existing tools. The first tool, TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System), is a model-based tool from Qualtech Systems Inc. for fault isolation and diagnostics. The second tool, SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine), is a rule-based expert system that was developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We developed SHINE rules for fault detection and mode identification, and used the outputs of SHINE as inputs to TEAMS. The third tool, IMS (Inductive Monitoring System), is an anomaly detection tool that was developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The three tools were integrated and deployed to KSC, where they were interfaced with live data. This paper describes how the prototype performed during the period of time before the launch, including accuracy and computer resource usage. The paper concludes with some of the lessons that we learned from the experience of developing and deploying the prototype.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Progress Toward the Feasibility of the Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket

The Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket (CNTR) is a Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) concept designed to heat propellant directly by the reactor fuel. The primary difference between the CNTR concept and traditional NTP systems is that rather than using traditional solid fuel elements, the CNTR uses liquid fuel with the liquid contained in rotating cylinders by centrifugal force. If the concept can be successfully realized, the CNTR would have a high specific impulse (~1800 seconds) at high thrust, which may enable (i) viable near-term human Mars exploration by reducing round-trip times to 420 days and (ii) direct injection orbits for scientific missions to the Solar System outer planets and potentially Kuiper Belt objects. The CNTR could also use storable propellants such as ammonia, methane, or hydrazine at an Isp of ~900 seconds, enabling long-term in-space storage of a dormant system. Significant engineering challenges must be addressed to establish the technical viability of the CNTR. Research is presently underway to determine resolutions for these engineering challenges. In particular, research has begun on the analytical modeling and simulation of the two-phase heat transfer between the liquid metallic uranium fuel and the gaseous propellant. A paper was presented at the 2021 IAC which described these challenges and the study plan to address them. This paper describes the analytical and experimental progress to date toward resolving these challenges and establishing the engineering feasibility of the CNTR technology.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2026

Spatially Refined Satellite Gravimetry Captures Human Signatures in Global Terrestrial Water Storage Trends

Human activities have directly altered the water cycle through water management, aquifer pumping, agricultural irrigation, and land use change. Although satellite gravimetry has transformed global hydrological research, its coarse resolution limits attribution of freshwater change to human activities at many management-relevant scales. Here we assessed global terrestrial water storage (TWS) trends from April 2002 to November 2025 using “stacked” regression of Level-1B intersatellite ranging data, which leverages temporal information and variability to dramatically improve effective spatial resolution relative to standard approaches. We combined this refined product with rigorous uncertainty analysis, autocorrelation-robust geostatistical methods, and literature assessment to evaluate TWS trend associations with land and water use, climate variability, and glacial mass loss. We identified TWS trend hotspots exhibiting significant spatial associations with anthropogenic 40 drivers, including groundwater and surface-water irrigation, rainfed agriculture, deforestation, and reservoir impoundment. Across these regions, cumulative TWS losses (3,122 Gt) substantially exceeded gains (2,432 Gt). Compared with traditional regression of monthly mascons, our approach yielded regional trend magnitudes that are on average 33% larger, revealing that global freshwater depletion, particularly from groundwater pumping, is considerably more acute than previously estimated. Multivariate regression models show that humans account for a significant share of the spatial variability in TWS trends on every non-polar continent except Australia. We detected localized TWS gains linked to rainfed agriculture, surface water irrigation, and reservoir filling that were unresolved in earlier gravimetric studies. The methodology provides a foundation for future gravity missions to independently track decadal freshwater change with unprecedented spatial fidelity.

groundwater↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Canadian Galactic Emission Mapper: A New 8-10 GHz Telescope To Map the Polarization of the Northern Sky

The Canadian Galactic Emission Mapper (CGEM) radio telescope is mapping polarized Galactic foregrounds from 8-10 GHz to aid in the search for B-modes in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Here we describe the design and early on-sky characterization of the CGEM optics. CGEM employs an on-axis, hat feed optical design that is a body of revolution (BOR) and exhibits excellent intrinsic polarization purity. We describe how we have optimized the optics with a novel framework that can directly minimize simulated intensity to polarized intensity (T → P) leakage in angular power spectrum space. The optimized optics exhibit simulated T → P leakage that is orders of magnitude below anticipated CℓBB for r = 10 −3 when scaled from 8-10 GHz to the CMB observing window near 95 GHz. We go on to describe the mechanical design of the optics, including a novel secondary mirror support made from Astroquartz composite that has low loss, low dielectric constant, and preserves the BOR symmetry of the optics. We then showcase the early on-sky performance of the optics with observations of the Sun and satellites, which probe the beam to 40dB down from the peak. A beam model for the deployed CGEM optics based on electromagnetic simulations is in excellent agreement with the on-sky data.

cosmic microwave background↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

pragmatic method↗

NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2014

High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications

The report "High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications" documents the work conducted at UTRC under the NRA Contract NNC08CB03C, with cost share 2/3 NASA, and 1/3 UTRC, that has been extended to 4.5 years. The purpose of this effort was to identify key technical barriers to advancing the state-of-the-art of small centrifugal compressor stages; to delineate the measurements required to provide insight into the flow physics of the technical barriers; to design, fabricate, install, and test a state-of-the-art research compressor that is representative of the rear stage of an axial-centrifugal aero-engine; and to acquire detailed aerodynamic performance and research quality data to clarify flow physics and to establish detailed data sets for future application. The design activity centered on meeting the goal set outlined in the NASA solicitation-the design target was to increase efficiency at higher work factor, while also reducing the maximum diameter of the stage. To fit within the existing Small Engine Components Test Facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and to facilitate component re-use, certain key design parameters were fixed by UTRC, including impeller tip diameter, impeller rotational speed, and impeller inlet hub and shroud radii. This report describes the design effort of the High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage (HECC) and delineation of measurements, fabrication of the compressor, and the initial tests that were performed. A new High-Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage with a very challenging reduction in radius ratio was successfully designed, fabricated and installed at GRC. The testing was successful, with no mechanical problems and the running clearances were achieved without impeller rubs. Overall, measured pressure ratio of 4.68, work factor of 0.81, and at design exit corrected flow rate of 3 lbm/s met the target requirements. Polytropic efficiency of 85.5 percent and stall margin of 7.5 percent were measured at design flow rate and speed. The measured efficiency and stall margin were lower than pre-test CFD predictions by 2.4 percentage points (pt) and 4.5 pt, respectively. Initial impressions from the experimental data indicated that the loss in the efficiency and stall margin can be attributed to a design shortfall in the impeller. However, detailed investigation of experimental data and post-test CFD simulations of higher fidelity than pre-test CFD, and in particular the unsteady CFD simulations and the assessment with a wider range of turbulence models, have indicated that the loss in efficiency is most likely due to the impact of unfavorable unsteady impeller/diffuser interactions induced by diffuser vanes, an impeller/diffuser corrected flow-rate mismatch (and associated incidence levels), and, potentially, flow separation in the radial-to-axial bend. An experimental program with a vaneless diffuser is recommended to evaluate this observation. A subsequent redesign of the diffuser (and the radial-to-axial bend) is also recommended. The diffuser needs to be redesigned to eliminate the mismatching of the impeller and the diffuser, targeting a slightly higher flow capacity. Furthermore, diffuser vanes need to be adjusted to align the incidence angles, to optimize the splitter vane location (both radially and circumferentially), and to minimize the unsteady interactions with the impeller. The radial-to-axial bend needs to be redesigned to eliminate, or at least minimize, the flow separation at the inner wall, and its impact on the flow in the diffuser upstream. Lessons were also learned in terms of CFD methodology and the importance of unsteady CFD simulations for centrifugal compressors was highlighted. Inconsistencies in the implementation of a widely used two-equation turbulence model were identified and corrections are recommended. It was also observed that unsteady simulations for centrifugal compressors require significantly longer integration times than what is current practice in industry.

Gorazd Medic↗

NASA NTRS1998

Behavior of 2-Cell CPV Ni-H2 Battery During Pulse Discharge

A study was carried out to determine the transient voltage behavior of the 2-cell CPV nickel-hydrogen battery with the objective of using the results as a basis for mathematical modeling. The 2-cell CPV battery which is manufactured by Eagle Picher, Inc. for the GOES program yields 18.5 Ah at C/2 rate of discharge at 10 C with a mid-discharge voltage of 2.514 V. The capacity increased with decrease of temperature and a maximum capacity of 22 Ah was obtained at -5 C. The pulse tests consisted of obtaining the voltage profile in the first 20 milliseconds of the one minute pulse discharge at 37 A and pulse discharge was repeated as a function of state-of-charge. The pulse test at 10 C and 20 C provided voltage profiles with the expected decrease in voltage as the pulse was applied. The end of pulse voltage decreased with the state-of-charge. The battery voltage was above 2V at the end of the one-minute pulse at 8 % state-of-charge at 10 C. The voltage profile during the 37 A pulse discharge consists of an initial drop in voltage which was independent of the state of charge. The invariability in the value for the initial drop in voltage with state of charge is a very important observation. The results show that towards the end of discharge the dominant resistance is not ohmic in nature. It could be hypothesized from the nature of the voltage transients that the dominant mechanism towards the end of discharge is proton diffusion. The study also shows that the dominant resistance in the voltage plateau during discharge is activation polarization.

Vaidyanathan, Hari↗

NASA NTRS2024

Artemis I Orion ESM Propulsion System Engine Performance

NASA's Orion spacecraft transports humans and cargo into cislunar space for the Artemis program. The European Service Module (ESM), supplied by ESA and its European industry partners, provides Orion with power and in-space propulsion. The Orion-ESM propulsion system is a bipropellant hypergolic propulsion system using monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) and nitrogen tetroxide (MON-3). Primary translational propulsion is provided by the Orbital Maneuvering System Engine(OMS-E), with backup translational propulsion provided by eight Auxiliary thrusters (AUX). Attitude control and small translational maneuvers are provided by twenty four Reaction Control System (RCS) engines. The 2022 Artemis I mission was the first integrated flight test of the Orion-ESM spacecraft and its propulsion system. The OMS-E used on Artemis I was a refurbished Space Shuttle OMS-E that previously flew on nineteen missions ranging from STS-41G in 1984 to STS-112 in 2002. The Auxiliary engines are modified Aerojet Rocketdyne R4D-11 engines produced specifically for the Orion program. The RCS engines are Ariane Group engines originally used for the Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) program. This paper will discuss the unique operational requirements for each engine on Orion and the development and qualification effort sat both the engine and system-level that were completed to enable a successful Artemis I mission. Next the paper will evaluate the in-flight performance of the engines during the Artemis I mission showing nominal performance as expected. Additionally, comparisons to models will be presented showing very good correlation. Finally, the paper will address the plan for the engines on future Orion missions and the evolution of the system operation.

Liquid Propulsion Systems↗

NASA NTRS2024

Artemis I Orion ESM Propulsion System Engine Performance

Reuse↗

NASA NTRS2012

General Purpose Data-Driven System Monitoring for Space Operations

Modern space propulsion and exploration system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or for analysis of archived events. Ongoing and developing IMS space operations applications include International Space Station flight control, spacecraft vehicle system health management, launch vehicle ground operations, and fleet supportability. As a common thread of discussion this paper will employ the evolution of the IMS data-driven technique as related to several Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) elements. Thematically, the projects listed will be used as case studies. The maturation of IMS via projects where it has been deployed or is currently being integrated to aid in fault detection will be described. The paper will also explain how IMS can be used to complement a suite of other ISHM tools, providing initial fault detection support for diagnosis and recovery

Space Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗