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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Field Results from New Tensor Borehole Optical Fiber Strainmeter Installations in Oklahoma and Utah

The time evolving strain field contains a wealth of information that can be used to interpret subsurface behavior. For example, injecting or removing fluids from reservoirs or aquifers causes deformation that can be used as a diagnostic signal in some cases, while it can interfere with geodetic interpretations in other cases. We've previously demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the strain tensor at a depth of 30m caused by injection into a reservoir at 530m. The observed strain signals were interpreted using four independent analytic and numerical methods that resulted in estimates of the poroelastic properties and geometry of the reservoir that was consistent with data from well logs. However, studies like these are only possible if these deformations can be reliably measured. Years of lab and field work has culminated in the development of a novel borehole strainmeter capable of resolving multiple components of strain using embedded optical fibers configured as Michelson interferometers. It features four horizontal gauges separated by 45° to resolve the horizontal strain tensor as well as a vertical strain gauge and a sixth null component for state-of-health monitoring. The downhole sensing package also includes an open pipe through its center for grout circulation during single-trip deployments and a fully welded stainless steel exterior for robustness and longevity. These instruments have a resolution of 2x10-13 strain that can easily measure the solid earth tides. Preliminary data are available from four strainmeters in shale at our Oklahoma site and four in compacted sand and gravel in Utah. These are deployed from 40-60m, except one of the strainmeters in Oklahoma is deployed at 500m. The data include strains from the initial grout curing, comparisons to predicted earth tide models and in-situ calibration results, barometric pressure admittances and spectral analyses as well as signals from underground injections and surface waves from teleseismic events. Preliminary analyses indicate behavior consistent with other strainmeter deployments, and comparison to data from a Gladwin strainmeter at the Oklahoma site validate the performance of the new design. Analyses from a suite of six well tests at the Oklahoma site show for the first time how the strain tensor field varies with location during well testing.

DeWolf, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultra-high energy density relativistic plasmas from nanostructures: scaling to ultra-high intensities (Final Report)

This project investigated the ultra-high energy density (UHED) regime of matter found in the center of stars, using a compact PW-class laser. These extreme conditions are typically only obtained in the laboratory in the central hot-spot of spherically imploded capsules in inertial confinement fusion experiments driven by the world’s largest lasers. We have shown that near-solid density arrays of aligned nanostructures can be volumetrically heated to multi-keV temperatures by irradiation at relativistic intensity with ultrafast laser pulses of modest energy, opening a path for the generation of UHED plasmas with compact lasers. This new UHED plasma generation approach promises to create an environment with extreme energy densities and degrees of ionization, record conversion of optical laser light into ultrafast x-ray pulses, gigantic magnetic fields and pressures, and directed beams of high energy particles . In this project we achieved record degree of ionization in volumetric heating solid density and near-solid density plasmas. Gold plasmas which spectra is characterized by L shell transition emission from ions with charge up to the Ne-like state, Au+ 72 were generated using ultrafast laser pulses of less than 10 J of energy from a compact laser focused to an intensity of ~ 3x10 21 Wcm -2 . We also conducted measurements to determine the heat penetration depth in Ni nanowire arrays as compared to Ni foil targets by monitoring the line emission of a Co buried tracer underneath a variable amount of Ni. The measurements revealed that the nanowire plasmas are roughly six times larger in depth than the solid density target plasmas. A result of this increased plasma in nanowire arrays is a greatly increased conversion of optical laser light into > 1 KeV x-rays, a record conversion efficiency of 20 %. Critical to the realization of the proposed experiments was the generation of ultrafast laser pulses with ultra-high contrast that can deposit the energy deep into the nanowire arrays before the nanowires explode to create a continuous plasma. Supporting the proposed experiments was the recent demonstration at Colorado State University of a Petawatt-class laser that emits 30 fs pulses at high repetition rates. The experiments combined this unique laser tool with a variety of tailored nanowire arrays fabricated in house and with an extensive suite of diagnostics. The experiments were accompanied by 3-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations and detailed atomic physics simulations with transient kinetics and radiation transport. The proposed research allowed us to continue training Ph.D students and post-docs with broad experience in HEDP Science.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electron Cyclotron Emission–Based Separatrix Identification in ITER with OMFIT Synthetic Modeling

Accurate determination of the separatrix location is essential for understanding edge plasma behavior and optimizing confinement in tokamaks, especially in next-generation devices such as ITER. In this study, a synthetic microwave diagnostics module was developed and implemented in the OMFIT framework to assess the feasibility of an electron cyclotron emission–based separatrix detection method in ITER plasmas. Simulations were carried out using ITER H-mode equilibrium scenarios with different plasma density profiles and different pedestal widths. Here, the results show that the electron emission temperature profiles consistently exhibit an inversion pattern near the edge, with a well-defined minimum point that could serve as a proxy for the separatrix location. However, unlike in the DIII-D, the minimum point in ITER is systematically offset by approximately 2 cm into the scrape-off layer, independent of density or pedestal width, which is within the radial resolution range (2 to 5 cm) determined by the 500-MHz channel spacing. While the method does not provide the exact separatrix location, it offers a reliable indicator of the boundary region and has potential applications for real-time boundary monitoring in ITER and other future fusion devices.

Electron cyclotron emission↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laser-induced fluorescence of filament-produced plasmas

Self-guided ultrafast laser filaments are a promising method for laser beam delivery and plasma generation for standoff and remote detection of elements and isotopes via filament-induced breakdown spectroscopy (FIBS). Yet, there are several challenges associated with the practical application of FIBS, including delivery of sufficient laser energy at the target for generating plasma with a copious amount of emission signals for obtaining a high signal-to-noise ratio. Here, in this study, we use laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) to boost the emission signal and reduce self-reversal in the spectral profiles. Ultrafast laser filaments were used to produce plasmas from an Al 6061 alloy target at various standoff distances from 1 to 10 m. For LIF emission enhancement, a narrow linewidth continuous-wave laser was used in resonance with a 394.40 nm Al I resonant transition, and the emission signal was monitored from the directly coupled transition at 396.15 nm. Emission signal features of Al I are significantly enhanced by resonant excitation. In addition, LIF of filament ablation plumes reduces the self-reversal features seen in the thermally excited spectral profiles. Time-resolved two-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopy was performed for evaluating the optical saturation effects, which are found to be non-negligible due to high Al atomic densities in the filament-produced plasmas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of growth rate and dynamic substrate tilt on properties of Au-Ta alloy films deposited by high-power impulse magnetron sputtering

Gold-tantalum (Au—Ta) alloys are promising for next-generation hohlraums for magnetically-assisted indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion. Hohlraum fabrication involves sputter deposition of ultrathick coatings on sphero-cylindrical substrates. The control of physical properties of such coatings remains a challenge. Here, in this work, we systematically study effects of the growth rate and dynamic substrate tilt on properties of AuTa 4 films deposited onto rotating planar substrates mounted at different tilt angles to mimic different regions of the sphero-cylindrical surface of a hohlraum. We use high-power impulse magnetron sputtering (HiPIMS) in the constant charge per pulse mode with a pulse duration of 100 μs, a charge per pulse of 190 μC, a peak target current of about 3 A, and the pulse frequency varied in the range of 400–1400 Hz. The Langmuir probe, mass-resolved ion energy spectrometry, and optical emission spectroscopy are used to monitor plasma discharge characteristics in order to isolate and study effects of the growth rate. The deposition rate and the ballistics and energetics of depositing species are estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the film microstructure, crystallographic phase, residual stress, and electrical resistivity strongly depend on both the deposition rate and substrate tilt, highlighting their critical role in tailoring properties of Au—Ta films during hohlraum fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring the long-term performance of organic redox flow battery by a distribution of relaxation time analysis

Organic redox flow batteries hold great promise as an energy storage technology, but their intricate chemistry makes them vulnerable to various degradation mechanisms. Monitoring this degradation is essential for identifying the limiting processes within the cells. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) offers a straightforward, in-situ method for measuring the total resistance of an operating cell. However, to pinpoint the limiting processes during long-term cycling, EIS data must be complemented by other techniques. Distribution of relaxation time (DRT) analysis is particularly effective for differentiating resistance components. Here, in this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis of resistance evolution and the separation of anode and cathode contributions during long-term cycling of a full cell employing 7,8-dihydroxyphenazine-2-sulfonic acid (DHPS) as the anolyte. Separate analyses of the DHPS anolyte and ferri-/ferrocyanide catholyte were conducted using a symmetric cell setup. The relaxation times derived from symmetric cells facilitate the identification of peaks in the DRT profiles from the full cell. Importantly, the DRT profiles indicate a correlation between the evolution of charge transfer resistance and the chemical degradation of DHPS. The methodologies and results outlined in this study offer significant insights for developing diagnostic tools applicable to other types of redox flow batteries.

Distribution of relaxation time↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models

Atmospheric CO 2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO 2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO 2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non-linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO 2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine-scale atmospheric CO 2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain-specific parameters, and high-quality input data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changes in active-site geometry on X-ray photoreduction of a lytic polysaccharide monooxygenase active-site copper and saccharide binding

The recently discovered lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs) are Cu-containing enzymes capable of degrading polysaccharide substrates oxidatively. The generally accepted first step in the LPMO reaction is the reduction of the active-site metal ion from Cu 2+ to Cu + . Here we have used a systematic diffraction data collection method to monitor structural changes in two AA9 LPMOs, one from Lentinus similis (LsAA9_A) and one from Thermoascus auranti­acus (TaAA9_A), as the active-site Cu is photoreduced in the X-ray beam. For LsAA9_A, the protein produced in two different recombinant systems was crystallized to probe the effect of post-translational modifications and different crystallization conditions on the active site and metal photoreduction. We can recommend that crystallographic studies of AA9 LPMOs wishing to address the Cu 2+ form use a total X-ray dose below 3 × 10 4 Gy, while the Cu + form can be attained using 1 × 10 6 Gy. In all cases, we observe the transition from a hexa­coordinated Cu site with two solvent-facing ligands to a T-shaped geometry with no exogenous ligands, and a clear increase of the θ 2 parameter and a decrease of the θ 3 parameter by averages of 9.2° and 8.4°, respectively, but also a slight increase in θ T . Thus, the θ 2 and θ 3 parameters are helpful diagnostics for the oxidation state of the metal in a His-brace protein. On binding of cello-oligosaccharides to LsAA9_A, regardless of the production source, the θ T parameter increases, making the Cu site less planar, while the active-site Tyr—Cu distance decreases reproducibly for the Cu 2+ form. Thus, the θ T increase found on copper reduction may bring LsAA9_A closer to an oligosaccharide-bound state and contribute to the observed higher affinity of reduced LsAA9_A for cellulosic substrates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design of a Thomson scattering diagnostic for the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART)

Here, we describe the design of a Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostic to be used on the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART). SMART is a spherical tokamak being commissioned in Spain that aims to explore positive triangularity and negative triangularity plasma scenarios at a low aspect ratio. The SMART TS diagnostic is designed to operate at high spatial resolution, 6 mm scattering length in the low-field side and 9 mm in the high-field side regions, and a wide dynamic range, electron temperature from 1 eV to 1 keV and density from 5 x 10 18 m -3 to 1 x 10 20 m -3 ⁠, to resolve large gradients formed at the plasma edge and in the scrape-off layer (SOL) under different triangularities and low aspect ratios. A 2 J @1064 nm laser will be used that is capable of operating in the burst mode at 1, 2, and 4 kHz to investigate fast phenomena and at 30 Hz to study 1 s (or more) long discharges. The scattered light will be collected over an angular range of 60° – 120° from 28 spatial points in the midplane covering the entire plasma width and the outer midplane SOL. Each scattering signal will be spectrally resolved on five wavelength channels of a polychromator to obtain the electron temperature measurement. We will also present a method to monitor in situ laser alignment in the core during calibrations and plasma operations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement and modeling of proton-induced reactions on arsenic from 35 to 200 MeV

72 As is a promising positron emitter for diagnostic imaging that can be employed locally using a 72 Se generator. However, current reaction pathways to 72 Se have insufficient nuclear data for efficient production using regional 100–200 MeV high-intensity proton accelerators. In order to address this deficiency, stacked-target irradiations were performed at LBNL, LANL, and BNL to measure the production of the 72 Se/ 72 As positron emission tomography (PET) generator system via 75 As (p, x) between 35 and 200 MeV. This work provides the most well-characterized excitation function for 75 As ( p , 4 n ) 72 Se starting from threshold. Additional focus was given to report the first measurements of 75 As (p, x) 68 Ge and bolster an already robust production capability for the highly valuable 68 Ge/ 68 Ga PET generator. Thick target yield comparisons with prior established formation routes to both generators are made. In total, high-energy proton-induced cross sections are reported for 55 measured residual products from 75 As, nat Cu , and nat Ti targets, where the latter two materials were present as monitor foils. These results were compared with literature data as well as the default theoretical calculations of the nuclear model codes TALYS, COH, EMPIRE, and ALICE. Reaction modeling at these energies is typically unsatisfactory due to few prior published data and many interacting physics models. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the talys code was performed with simultaneous parameter adjustments applied according to a standardized procedure. Particular attention was paid to the formulation of the two-component exciton model in the transition between the compound and preequilibrium regions, with a linked investigation of level density models for nuclei off of stability and their impact on modeling predictive power. This paper merges experimental work and evaluation techniques for high-energy charged-particle isotope production in an extension to an earlier study of this kind.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of SARS-CoV-2 testing and genomic sequencing into influenza sentinel surveillance in Uganda, January to December 2022

The Uganda Virus Research Institute, National Influenza Center laboratory integrated SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing and genomic sequencing into the influenza surveillance program that was established in 2007. A total of 7,698 nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swab samples were collected and analyzed from ILI/SARI sentinel sites across the country from January to December 2022. All samples were tested for influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 252 (3.3%), 162 (2.1%), and 589 (7.7%) were positive for influenza A, influenza B, and SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Out of 414 influenza-positive samples, 122 (29.5%) were AH1pdm09, 130 (31.4%) were AH3, and 162 (39.1%) were B-Victoria. All SARS-CoV-2 sequenced samples were of the Omicron variant, with subvariants of concern known to evade the immune system being detected, such as BQ.1 and XBB.2. Other SARS-CoV-2 positive samples collected from other health centers in the community outside the surveillance sites were included into SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing with similar patterns with respect to variants. In all, the ILI/SARI surveillance system has shown to be an efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable program, providing a ready platform to monitor the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in communities at the national level while remaining vigilant for the persistent threat of influenza. The integration of SARS-CoV-2 detection and genomic surveillance into the influenza surveillance program will strengthen the laboratory response capacity, as well as facilitate the timely release of SARS-CoV-2 genomic information to be used to complement the multiple response strategies for COVID-19 pandemic mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coincident learning for beam-based rf station fault identification using phase information at the SLAC linac coherent light source

Anomalies in radio-frequency (rf) stations can result in unplanned downtime and performance degradation in linear accelerators such as SLAC’s Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Detecting these anomalies is challenging due to the complexity of accelerator systems, high data volume, and scarcity of labeled fault data. Prior work identified faults using beam-based detection, combining rf amplitude and beam position monitor data. Due to the simplicity of the rf amplitude data, classical methods are sufficient to identify faults, but the recall is constrained by the low-frequency and asynchronous characteristics of the data. In this work, we leverage high-frequency, time-synchronous rf phase data to enhance anomaly detection in the LCLS accelerator. Due to the complexity of phase data, classical methods fail, and we instead train deep neural networks within the Coincident Anomaly Detection (CoAD) framework. We find that applying CoAD to phase data detects nearly 3 times as many anomalies as when applied to amplitude data, while achieving broader coverage across rf stations. Furthermore, the rich structure of phase data enables us to cluster anomalies into distinct physical categories. Through the integration of auxiliary system status bits, we link clusters to specific fault signatures, providing additional granularity for uncovering the root cause of faults. We also investigate interpretability via Shapley values, confirming that the learned models focus on the most informative regions of the data and providing insight for cases where the model makes mistakes. This work demonstrates that phase-based anomaly detection for rf stations improves both diagnostic coverage and root cause analysis in accelerator systems and that deep neural networks are essential for effective analysis.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Establishing an acoustic-property relationship in laser powder bed fusion with machine learning

Quality control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion (PBF-LB) additively manufactured parts is an important hurdle inhibiting the technology’s use structural applications. Acoustic monitoring of the laser powder bed fusion process can detect defects in-situ that are known to degrade mechanical properties. However, processing-structure-property (PSP) relationships are required to extrapolate from detected defects to part performance. Here, this study explores how acoustics may be a suitable signature linking processing conditions to properties, thus effectively substituting for structure in the PSP relationship. Establishing such a relationship would enable a part’s mechanical performance to be directly predicted from its acoustic signature, reducing the need for destructive testing or microstructural analysis to ensure a part will meet performance requirements. One hundred CoCrFeMnNi high entropy alloy tensile bars were printed across 13 process conditions in a series of 6 prints. The acoustic signatures of these tensile bars were used to train machine learning models to predict each part’s mechanical properties. By using both process information and acoustic information to predict mechanical properties, yield strength was predicted 18% more accurately and ductility to failure was predicted 10% more accurately than is achieved when using duplicate parts to predict part performance. Finally, individual acoustic frequencies were investigated to determine why acoustic signatures improve mechanical property predictions and the potential physical origins of these signatures. This work demonstrates how blending acoustics, process information, and machine learning can provide in-situ diagnostics of mechanical properties and improve the reliability of the PBF-LB process.

Acoustic emission↗
DOE OSTI2021

2D monochromatic x-ray imaging for beam monitoring of an x-ray free electron laser and a high-power femtosecond laser

Single-shot simultaneous beam monitoring of an x-ray free electron laser (XFEL) and a high-power femtosecond laser is demonstrated using 2D monochromatic Kα imaging. In a pump-probe experiment carried out at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end-station of the Linac Coherent Light Source, a thin solid titanium foil irradiated by a 25-TW relativistic intensity laser for fast electron isochoric heating was probed by a 7.0 keV XFEL beam for x-ray Thomson scattering measurements. Using a spherical crystal imager (SCI), the spatial overlap of the beams was examined by measuring 4.5 keV titanium Kα x rays produced by laseraccelerated fast electrons and the x-ray beam. Changes in XFEL-induced Kα emission patterns were observed down to a ~20×40 μm2 rectangular shape as the beam was focused. Laser-only and two-beam shots reveal that large spatial offsets of laser-induced Kα spots in a horizontal direction is attributed to imprecise target positioning rather than shot-to-shot laser pointing variations. As a consequence, successful beam overlapping was observed on ~58% of all two-beam shots for 10 μm thick samples. The Kα measurements also show a linear relationship between total Kα yields and integrated x-ray scattering signals. Monochromatic xray imaging with SCI could be used as an on-shot beam pointing diagnostic in XFEL-laser or multiple short-pulse laser experiments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laser ablation spectrometry for studies of uranium plasmas, reactor monitoring, and spent fuel safety

Nuclear security is one of the defining challenges of our time. Nuclear threats range from deliberate dispersal of radioactive material to contaminate the vital infrastructure to diversion and smuggling of special nuclear material for clandestine nuclear programs and nuclear terrorism, respectively. There is an associated need to develop and sustain the nuclear forensics capabilities, which requires the understanding of complex processes that occur in plasmas of nuclear materials. The area of nuclear safety has seen a resurgence of public interest, and there is a concomitant need to safely store used nuclear fuel and detect structural material failure in nuclear power systems, especially in innovative reactor designs envisioned for future adoption. Laser-produced plasmas are complicated extreme environments that can generate intense and rich, highly specific signatures of nuclear and radiological materials, which can then be explored in a wide range of applications. They include interdiction and rapid detection of nuclear materials, including their isotopic composition, detection over long distances, laboratory simulation of weapons effects, monitoring the condition of structural materials in dry cask storage containers, and novel instrumentation for nuclear power systems. We present a compilation of recent representative examples of the application of laser spectroscopy, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in particular, to nuclear safety and security problems. A case is made that spectroscopic techniques based on laser-produced plasmas offer complementary, and sometimes unique, capabilities that motivate the continued exploration of their efficient production and understanding of the signatures they produce

(020.3260) Isotope shifts, (140.3440) Laser-induce↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗