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At least 415 records · Page 23

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

Closed-loop transfer recovery with observer-based controllers. I - Analysis

The description of a novel problem in loop transfer recovery is presented. The problem of closed-loop recovery (CLTR) is examined using a measurement feedback-control law where the closed-loop transfer function from the external signal to the controlled output can be made either exactly equal or approximately close to the so-called target closed-loop transfer function achieved under full-state feedback. The analysis of CLTR applies specifically to the general class of observer-based controllers and focuses on three fundamental issues. The first issue is concerned with what can and cannot be achieved for a given system and for an arbitrary target closed-loop transfer function. The second issue is to develop necessary and/or sufficient conditions for a target closed-loop transfer function to be recoverable either exactly or approximately. The third issue deals with the necessary and/or sufficient conditions on a given system such that it has at least one recoverable target closed-loop transfer function. The result is applied to the lateral autopilot design for a commercial transport airplane.

Chen, Ben M.↗

Multi-wavelength Spectral Analysis of Ellerman Bombs Observed by FISS and IRIS

Ellerman bombs (EBs) are a kind of solar activity that is suggested to occur in the lower solar atmosphere. Recent observations using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) show connections between EBs and IRIS bombs (IBs), which imply that EBs might be heated to a much higher temperature (8 × 10{sup 4} K) than previous results. Here we perform a spectral analysis of EBs simultaneously observed by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph and IRIS. The observational results show clear evidence of heating in the lower atmosphere, indicated by the wing enhancement in H α , Ca ii 8542 Å, and Mg ii triplet lines and also by brightenings in images of the 1700 Å and 2832 Å ultraviolet continuum channels. Additionally, the intensity of the Mg ii triplet line is correlated with that of H α when an EB occurs, suggesting the possibility of using the triplet as an alternative way to identify EBs. However, we do not find any signal in IRIS hotter lines (C ii and Si iv). For further analysis, we employ a two-cloud model to fit the two chromospheric lines (H α and Ca ii 8542 Å) simultaneously, and obtain a temperature enhancement of 2300 K for a strong EB. This temperature is among the highest of previous modeling results, albeit still insufficient to produce IB signatures at ultraviolet wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Semi-empirical crack tip analysis

Experimentally observed crack opening displacements are employed as the solution of the multiple crack interaction problem. Then the near and far fields are reconstructed analytically by means of the double layer potential technqiue. Evaluation of the effective stress intensity factor resulting from the interaction of the main crack and its surrounding crazes in addition to the remotely applied load is presented as an illustrative example. It is shown that crazing (as well as microcracking) may constitute an alternative mechanism to Dugdale-Berenblatt models responsible for the cancellation of the singularity at the crack tip.

Chudnovsky, A.↗

Measurements of the vertical profile of water vapor abundance in the Martian atmosphere from Mars Observer

An analysis is presented of the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR) capabilities along with how the vertical profiles of water vapor will be obtained. The PMIRR will employ filter and pressure modulation radiometry using nine spectral channels, in both limb scanning and nadir sounding modes, to obtain daily, global maps of temperature, dust extinction, condensate extinction, and water vapor mixing ratio profiles as a function of pressure to half scale height or 5 km vertical resolution. Surface thermal properties will also be mapped, and the polar radiactive balance will be monitored.

Schofield, J. T.↗

Analysis of pyroxene absorptions observed in Martian dark regions

We have investigated the mineralogy of the Martian dark regions by analysis of the pyroxene Fe(2+) absorption band near 1.0 micron in a set of VIS/NIR reflectance spectral images. The data used for these analyses were selected from a larger set, extending from 0.44 to 1.02 microns, obtained during the close 1988 opposition and covering substantially all of Mars south of 40 degrees N. This data set is being used in regional mapping of spectral parameters related to surface mineralogy. Martian dark regions are of interest in reconstructing the geologic history because they contain exposures of unaltered or little-altered basaltic crustal material; mapping differences in composition among dark regions could reveal regional or temporal variation in magmatic activity or mantle source composition. Two types of dark regions are seen, with the pyroxene band present and absent; where present, the inferred composition is in the range pigeonite-augite to very high-Fe, low-Ca pyroxene, with a two-pyroxene mixture possible.

Miller, J. S.↗

Mars Environmental Chamber for Dynamic Dust Deposition and Statics Analysis

Recent observations of the 2001 dust storms encircling Mars confirm predictions of environmental challenges for exploration. Martian dust has been found to completely mantle the Martian surface over thousands of square kilometers and the opacity of airborne dust has been shown to be capable of modifying atmospheric temperature, radiative transfer and albedo. Planetary dust cycling dynamics are suggested to be a key factor in the evolution of the Martian surface. Long-term robotic and manned exploration of Mars will be confronted by dust deposition in periods of atmospheric calm and violent wind storms. Aeolian dust deposition recorded during the Mars Pathfinder mission was estimated to fall at rates of 20-45 microns per Earth year. Although many tools of exploration will be challenged by coating, adhesion, abrasion and possible chemical reaction of deposited, wind blown and actively disturbed Martian dust, solar cells are thought to be of primary concern. Recent modeling work of power output by gallium arsenide/germanium solar cells was validated by the Pathfinder Lander data and showed power output decreases of 0.1 to 0.5% per Martian day. A major determinant for the optimal positioning angle of solar panels employed in future missions is the angle of repose of the settling dust particles that is dependent on a variety of physical and chemical properties of the particles, the panel surface, and the environmental conditions on the Mars surface. While the effects of many of these factors are well understood qualitatively, quantitative analyses, especially under physical and chemical conditions prevailing on the Mars surface are lacking.

L.E. Moeller↗

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

Evaluation of the CAM6 Climate Model Using Cloud Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

A comparative analysis between observational data from McMurdo Station, Antarctica and the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) simulation is performed focusing on cloud characteristics and their thermodynamic conditions. Ka-band Zenith Radar (KAZR) and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) retrievals are used as the basis of cloud fraction and cloud phase identifications. Radiosondes released at 12-hour increments provide atmospheric profiles for evaluating the simulated thermodynamic conditions. Our findings show that the CAM6 simulation consistently overestimates (underestimates) cloud fraction above (below) 3 km in four seasons of a year. Normalized by total in-cloud samples, ice and mixed phase occurrence frequencies are underestimated and liquid phase frequency is overestimated by the model at cloud fractions above 0.6, while at cloud fractions below 0.6 ice phase frequency is overestimated and liquid-containing phase frequency is underestimated by the model. The cloud fraction biases are closely associated with concurrent biases in relative humidity (RH), i.e., high (low) RH biases above (below) 2 km. Frequencies of correctly simulating ice and liquid-containing phase increase when the absolute biases of RH decrease. Cloud fraction biases also show a positive correlation with RH biases. Water vapor mixing ratio biases are the primary contributor to RH biases, and hence, likely a key factor controlling the cloud biases. Finally, this diagnosis of the evident shortfalls of representations of cloud characteristics in CAM6 simulation at McMurdo Station brings new insight in improving the governing model physics therein.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Del Rio ataxite, Texas

Basic data are presented on the Del Rio, Nordheim, and Monahans ataxites found in Texas. Results are reported for bulk-chemistry analysis, metallographic observations, and electron-microprobe analysis of the Del Rio meteorite. It is shown that Del Rio is distinctly different from the other two ataxites in terms of nickel, phosphorous, and carbon content, and is composed of at least three coarse grains in different crystallographic orientations. All the kamacite in Del Rio is found to have transformation structures that are probable shock products, and minor inclusions of daubreelite, schreibersite, and troilite are observed. It is concluded that Del Rio was apparently mildly shocked prior to its fall.

Henderson, E. P.↗

Universal time - Results from lunar laser ranging

A least squares analysis of lunar laser ranging observations from the McDonald Observatory is used to estimate universal time. In addition to the ranging observations, the analysis simultaneously takes into account the parameters representing the locations of McDonald and the lunar retroreflectors, the orbits of the earth and the moon, and the moon's physical libration. The root-mean-square of the postfit range residuals for the 5-year period from October 1970 to November 1975 is 28 cm. The results are compared with those obtained by the Bureau International de l'Heure and by Stolz et al. (1976), and the reasons for discrepancies are discussed. It is suggested that problems in modeling the moon's motion make difficult the determination of UT with the accuracy inherent in the ranging observations.

King, R. W.↗

Constraining the top-Higgs sector of the standard model effective field theory

Working in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, we study chirality-flipping couplings of the top quark to Higgs and gauge bosons. In this paper, we discuss in detail the renormalization-group evolution to lower energies and investigate direct and indirect contributions to high- and low-energy $CP$-conserving and $CP$-violating observables. Our analysis includes constraints from collider observables, precision electroweak tests, flavor physics, and electric dipole moments. We find that indirect probes are competitive or dominant for both $CP$-even and $CP$-odd observables, even after accounting for uncertainties associated with hadronic and nuclear matrix elements, illustrating the importance of including operator mixing in constraining the Standard Model effective field theory. We also study scenarios where multiple anomalous top couplings are generated at the high scale, showing that while the bounds on individual couplings relax, strong correlations among couplings survive. In conclusion, we find that enforcing minimal flavor violation does not significantly affect the bounds on the top couplings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗