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At least 415 records · Page 23

Statistical Approaches for Pebble Bed Reactor Operations and Safeguards

The design of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and their method of operation align more closely with statistical approaches used in manufacturing and process control than traditional safeguards statistical approaches. The reason is PBRs will employ a nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement (burnup measurement system [BUMS]) that is part of the fuel handling system supporting discharge decisions in addition to the reactor code which monitor performance. The integration of these two approaches provides the opportunity to monitor reactor performance statistically for both operations and safeguards in ways not achievable using other reactor designs. For light water reactors (LWRs), knowledge about reactor code performance in predicting irradiated special nuclear material (SNM) content historically was only achieved from special measurement campaigns or from fuel reprocessing. Conversely, through statistical comparison of the BUMS with the reactor code-predicted values, PBRs can achieve this in real time. The resulting SNM distribution is an indicator of reactor performance because factors such as transit time and path of the pebble fuel through the reactor determine the plutonium production and uranium depletion. By analyzing the predicted and measured values, opportunities exist to adjust operating parameters, fuel design, and other characteristics to optimize performance and fuel utilization. From a safeguards perspective, this approach also provides the information necessary to validate declared values and evaluate whether the reactor is being operated as expected. This paper outlines statistical approaches for PBRs that can be used to support both operations and safeguards.

Ball, Cory↗

Developing a Decision Support Engine to Enable Irrigation Modernization - Poster

Irrigation systems in the United States are some of the oldest continually utilized infrastructure in existence today, with some systems exceeding 100 years in age. They are operated to meet farming demands but are managed through a balance of varying influence: policies limiting water usage, stakeholder interests, and environmental impacts. Irrigation modernization is defined as a set of activities that update and improve existing irrigation systems, including, but not limited to improving water quantity, development of distributed energy resources for surrounding communities, ecosystem services, and improved agricultural yields. Modernizing an existing irrigation system can enable stakeholders to combat changing environmental and population demands but is difficult because the complexity involved in determining the potential benefits and consequences of irrigation modernization is high. We are combining a large amount of various geospatial, tabular, and temporal data with subject matter expertise into a decision support engine that will enable stakeholders to determine the benefits and consequences of irrigation modernization in their irrigation systems. A web-based GIS will allow the user to construct the modifications out of a palette of modernization options, which will be sent to the analytics engine for computations, and back to the web client for a graphical display and comparison of relevant metrics. Our development process involves four phases: 1) identify mechanisms of modernization, 2) identify data requirements, data streams, first principles and applicable algorithms necessary to quantify modernization mechanisms, 3) create ‘modules’ for each modernization mechanism, these modules will form the decision support engine, each capable of performing independently but can also inform other modules when needed, 4) Merge the decision support engine with a user interface, capable of ingesting user inputs and returning insights into the impacts of a modernization project as they relate to economic, environmental, monetary, and energy generation. Once complete, it is our intention that this tool will be fundamental in irrigation modernization projects, providing a strong analytical basis from which stakeholders can quickly make informed decisions regarding project development.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

High Resolution Visualization Applied to Future Heavy Airlift Concept Development and Evaluation

This paper explores the use of high resolution 3D visualization tools for exploring the feasibility and advantages of future military cargo airlift concepts and evaluating compatibility with existing and future payload requirements. Realistic 3D graphic representations of future airlifters are immersed in rich, supporting environments to demonstrate concepts of operations to key personnel for evaluation, feedback, and development of critical joint support. Accurate concept visualizations are reviewed by commanders, platform developers, loadmasters, soldiers, scientists, engineers, and key principal decision makers at various stages of development. The insight gained through the review of these physically and operationally realistic visualizations is essential to refining design concepts to meet competing requirements in a fiscally conservative defense finance environment. In addition, highly accurate 3D geometric models of existing and evolving large military vehicles are loaded into existing and proposed aircraft cargo bays. In this virtual aircraft test-loading environment, materiel developers, engineers, managers, and soldiers can realistically evaluate the compatibility of current and next-generation airlifters with proposed cargo.

FordCook, A. B.↗

EVA 2010: Preparing for International Space Station EVA Operations Post-Space Shuttle Retirement

The expected retirement of the NASA Space Transportation System (also known as the Space Shuttle ) by 2011 will pose a significant challenge to Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The EVA hardware currently used to assemble and maintain the ISS was designed assuming that it would be returned to Earth on the Space Shuttle for refurbishment, or if necessary for failure investigation. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, a new concept of operations was developed to enable EVA hardware (Extra-vehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), Airlock Systems, EVA tools, and associated support hardware and consumables) to perform ISS EVAs until 2015, and possibly beyond to 2020. Shortly after the decision to retire the Space Shuttle was announced, the EVA 2010 Project was jointly initiated by NASA and the OneEVA contractor team. The challenges addressed were to extend the operating life and certification of EVA hardware, to secure the capability to launch EVA hardware safely on alternate launch vehicles, to protect for EMU hardware operability on-orbit, and to determine the source of high water purity to support recharge of PLSSs (no longer available via Shuttle). EVA 2010 Project includes the following tasks: the development of a launch fixture that would allow the EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS) to be launched on-board alternate vehicles; extension of the EMU hardware maintenance interval from 3 years (current certification) to a minimum of 6 years (to extend to 2015); testing of recycled ISS Water Processor Assembly (WPA) water for use in the EMU cooling system in lieu of water resupplied by International Partner (IP) vehicles; development of techniques to remove & replace critical components in the PLSS on-orbit (not routine); extension of on-orbit certification of EVA tools; and development of an EVA hardware logistical plan to support the ISS without the Space Shuttle. Assumptions for the EVA 2010 Project included no more than 8 EVAs per year for ISS EVA operations in the Post-Shuttle environment and limited availability of cargo upmass on IP launch vehicles. From 2010 forward, EVA operations on-board the ISS without the Space Shuttle will be a paradigm shift in safely operating EVA hardware on orbit and the EVA 2010 effort was initiated to accommodate this significant change in EVA evolutionary history.

Chullen, Cinda↗

NASA Airline Operations Research Center

This is a PowerPoint presentation NASA airline operations center (AOC) research. It includes information on using IBM Watson in the AOC. It also reviews a dispatcher decision support tool call the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. It should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations with the same title.

NASA↗

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Post-Shuttle EVA Operations on ISS

The expected retirement of the NASA Space Transportation System (also known as the Space Shuttle ) by 2011 will pose a significant challenge to Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The EVA hardware currently used to assemble and maintain the ISS was designed assuming that it would be returned to Earth on the Space Shuttle for refurbishment, or if necessary for failure investigation. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, a new concept of operations was developed to enable EVA hardware (Extra-vehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), Airlock Systems, EVA tools, and associated support hardware and consumables) to perform ISS EVAs until 2015, and possibly beyond to 2020. Shortly after the decision to retire the Space Shuttle was announced, the EVA 2010 Project was jointly initiated by NASA and the One EVA contractor team. The challenges addressed were to extend the operating life and certification of EVA hardware, to secure the capability to launch EVA hardware safely on alternate launch vehicles, to protect for EMU hardware operability on-orbit, and to determine the source of high water purity to support recharge of PLSSs (no longer available via Shuttle). EVA 2010 Project includes the following tasks: the development of a launch fixture that would allow the EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS) to be launched on-board alternate vehicles; extension of the EMU hardware maintenance interval from 3 years (current certification) to a minimum of 6 years (to extend to 2015); testing of recycled ISS Water Processor Assembly (WPA) water for use in the EMU cooling system in lieu of water resupplied by International Partner (IP) vehicles; development of techniques to remove & replace critical components in the PLSS on-orbit (not routine); extension of on-orbit certification of EVA tools; and development of an EVA hardware logistical plan to support the ISS without the Space Shuttle. Assumptions for the EVA 2010 Project included no more than 8 EVAs per year for ISS EVA operations in the Post-Shuttle environment and limited availability of cargo upmass on IP launch vehicles. From 2010 forward, EVA operations on-board the ISS without the Space Shuttle will be a paradigm shift in safely operating EVA hardware on orbit and the EVA 2010 effort was initiated to accommodate this significant change in EVA evolutionary history. 1

West, William↗

NASA's ATM Technology Demonstration-1: Integrated Concept of Arrival Operations

This paper describes operations and procedures envisioned for NASA s Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1). The ATD-1 Concept of Operations (ConOps) demonstration will integrate three NASA technologies to achieve high throughput, fuel-efficient arrival operations into busy terminal airspace. They are Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM) for precise time-based schedules to the runway and points within the terminal area, Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools for terminal controllers to better manage aircraft delay using speed control, and Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) avionics and flight crew procedures to conduct airborne spacing operations. The ATD-1 concept provides de-conflicted and efficient operations of multiple arrival streams of aircraft, passing through multiple merge points, from top-of-descent (TOD) to touchdown. It also enables aircraft to conduct Optimized Profile Descents (OPDs) from en route altitude to the runway, using primarily speed control to maintain separation and schedule. The ATD-1 project is currently addressing the challenges of integrating the three technologies, and implantation into an operational environment. Goals of the ATD-1 demonstration include increasing the throughput of high-density airports, reducing controller workload, increasing efficiency of arrival operations and the frequency of trajectory-based operations, and promoting aircraft ADS-B equipage.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 Concept of Operations (ATD-1 ConOps), Version 2.0

This document is an update to the operations and procedures envisioned for NASA s Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1). The ATD-1 Concept of Operations (ConOps) integrates three NASA technologies to achieve high throughput, fuel-efficient arrival operations into busy terminal airspace. They are Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM) for precise time-based schedules to the runway and points within the terminal area, Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools for terminal controllers to better manage aircraft delay using speed control, and Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) avionics and flight crew procedures to conduct airborne spacing operations. The ATD-1 concept provides de-conflicted and efficient operations of multiple arrival streams of aircraft, passing through multiple merge points, from top-of-descent (TOD) to the Final Approach Fix. These arrival streams are Optimized Profile Descents (OPDs) from en route altitude to the runway, using primarily speed control to maintain separation and schedule. The ATD-1 project is currently addressing the challenges of integrating the three technologies, and their implantation into an operational environment. The ATD-1 goals include increasing the throughput of high-density airports, reducing controller workload, increasing efficiency of arrival operations and the frequency of trajectory-based operations, and promoting aircraft ADS-B equipage.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying the effect of multiple load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and services via surrogate modeling

The expansion of commercial building demand response as a demand-side management resource for the electric grid necessitates new decision support resources for customers seeking to assess the benefit–risk tradeoffs of possible strategies for energy flexible building operations. To address this need, we, in this study, develop surrogate models that predict the impacts of several load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and indoor temperature, focusing on offices and retail buildings at multiple scales. The surrogate models are fit to a synthetic database generated via whole building simulations, which establish the relationships between the key operational features of a given strategy and potential changes in building demand and temperature across a variety of contexts. The surrogate models are translated to a Bayesian framework to allow straightforward communication of uncertainty and parameter updating given new evidence. We find strong predictive performance across the suite of models, underscoring the usefulness of the approach in guiding decisions about implementing load flexibility strategies under a particular set of operational and environmental conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA's Earth Science Research and Environmental Predictions

NASA Earth Science program began in the 1960s with cloud imaging satellites used for weather observations. A fleet of satellites are now in orbit to investigate the Earth Science System to uncover the connections between land, Oceans and the atmosphere. Satellite systems using an array of active and passive remote sensors are used to search for answers on how is the Earth changing and what are the consequences for life on Earth? The answer to these questions can be used for applications to serve societal needs and contribute to decision support systems for weather, hazard, and air quality predictions and mitigation of adverse effects. Partnerships with operational agencies using NASA's observational capabilities are now being explored. The system of the future will require new technology, data assimilation systems which includes data and models that will be used for forecasts that respond to user needs.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

Differences in the Optical Characteristics of Continental US Ground and Cloud Flashes as Observed from Space

Continental US lightning flashes observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) are categorized according to flash type (ground or cloud flash) using US National Lightning Detection Network (TM) (NLDN) data. The statistics of the ground and cloud flash optical parameters (e.g., radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events) are inter-compared. On average, the ground flash cloud-top emissions are more radiant, illuminate a larger area, are longer lasting, and have more optical groups and optical events than those cloud-top emissions associated with cloud flashes. Given these differences, it is suggested that the methods of Bayesian Inference could be used to help discriminate between ground and cloud flashes. The ability to discriminate flash type on-orbit is highly desired since such information would help researchers and operational decision makers better assess the intensification, evolutionary state, and severe weather potential of thunderstorms. This work supports risk reduction activities presently underway for the future launch of the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM).

Koshak, William↗

The Integrated Medical Model

The goals of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) are to develop an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to crew health and mission planners and to help align science, technology, and operational activities intended to optimize crew health, safety, and mission success. Presentation slides address scope and approach, beneficiaries of IMM capabilities, history, risk components, conceptual models, development steps, and the evidence base. Space adaptation syndrome is used to demonstrate the model's capabilities.

Kerstman, Eric↗

Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand DES capabilities to address KSC's planning needs.

Trocine, Linda↗

Technology Development to Support Human Health and Performance in Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

In the course of defining the level of risks and mitigating the risks for exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit, NASA s Human Research Program (HRP) has identified the need for technology development in several areas. Long duration missions increase the risk of serious medical conditions due to limited options for return to Earth; no resupply; highly limited mass, power, volume; and communication delays. New space flight compatible medical capabilities required include: diagnostic imaging, oxygen concentrator, ventilator, laboratory analysis (saliva, blood, urine), kidney stone diagnosis & treatment, IV solution preparation and delivery. Maintenance of behavioral health in such an isolated, confined and extreme environment requires new sensory stimulation (e.g., virtual reality) technology. Unobtrusive monitoring of behavioral health and treatment methods are also required. Prolonged exposure to weightlessness deconditions bone, muscle, and the cardiovascular system. Novel exercise equipment or artificial gravity are necessary to prevent deconditioning. Monitoring of the degree of deconditioning is required to ensure that countermeasures are effective. New technologies are required in all the habitable volumes (e.g., suit, capsule, habitat, exploration vehicle, lander) to provide an adequate food system, and to meet human environmental standards for air, water, and surface contamination. Communication delays require the crew to be more autonomous. Onboard decision support tools that assist crew with real-time detection and diagnosis of vehicle and habitat operational anomalies will enable greater autonomy. Multi-use shield systems are required to provide shielding from solar particle events. The HRP is pursuing the development of these technologies in laboratories, flight analog environments and the ISS so that the human health and performance risks will be acceptable with the available resources.

Kundrot, C.E.↗

Integrated Demand Management: The FCA Balancing Algorithm

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a new NextGen function that resides within the FAA’s Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) software. CTOP was designed to be used in the United States’ national airspace to control the distribution of air traffic demand, both temporally and geographically, through a set of Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs). Each FCA is assigned capacity values that represent an estimated upper limit of manageable demand, and CTOP controls to that capacity by using Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) air traffic control clearances, and/or rerouting flights to an alternate FCA or out of the CTOP completely. CTOP’s decisions about which control options best meet system and user needs are based on the Trajectory Options Set (TOS) submitted by airline operators for each flight. The FCA Balancing Algorithm (FBA) described in this document is a proposed decision support capability that generates CTOP capacity entries for FCAs controlling traffic to a common downstream constraint. The FBA provides an equitable distribution of impact, and addresses the added complexity of assigning FCA capacity values for this specific type of use case, greatly simplifying the FAA air traffic manager’s task.

IDM↗