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Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method
We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.
Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016
The southeast Atlantic is home to well-defined smoke outflow from Africa coinciding vertically with extensive marine boundary-layer cloud decks, both reaching their climatological maxima in spatial extent around September. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional aerosol models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. The sparse airborne observations are first aggregated into 2o grid boxes and into three vertical layers: the cloud-topped marine boundary layer (MBL), the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the 3-6 km layer. Aerosol extensive properties simulated for the entire study region for all September suggest that the 2016 ORACLES observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30% or less. All six models typically place the bottom of the smoke layer at lower altitudes than do the airborne lidar observations by 300-1400 m, whereas model aerosol top heights are within 0-500 m of the observations. All but one of the models that report carbonaceous aerosol masses underestimate the ratio of particulate extinction to the masses, a proxy for mass extinction efficiency, in 3-6 km. Notable findings on individual models include that WRF-CAM5 predicts the mass of black carbon and organic aerosols with minor (~10% or less) biases. GEOS-5 overestimates the carbonaceous particle masses in the MBL by a factor of 3-6. Extinction coefficients in the free troposphere (FT) and above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) are 10-30% lower in WRF-CAM5, 30-50% lower in GEOS-5, 10-40% higher in GEOS-Chem, 10-20% higher in EAM-E3SM except for the practically unbiased 3-6 km extinction, and 20-70% lower in the Unified Model, than the airborne in situ, lidar and sunphotometer measurements. ALADIN-Climate also underestimates the ACAOD, by 30%. GEOS-5 and GEOS-Chem predict carbon monoxide in the MBL with small (10% or less) negative biases, despite their overestimates of carbonaceous aerosol masses. Overall, this study highlights a new approach to utilizing airborne aerosol measurements for model diagnosis.
A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge
This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.
Modeling the hydrodynamic impact on the tool influence function during hemispherical subaperture optical polishing
To fabricate high-precision and accurate optics relative to the optical design surface, a high level of deterministic control of material removal (i.e., the tool influence function, TIF) during subaperture tool polishing is required. In this study, a detailed analysis of the pressure distribution, which is a key component of the TIF, has been performed using finite element analysis to couple together solid mechanics and fluid dynamics. Modeling experimental parameters of recently published work reveals that, when considering tool deformation, which in turn influences the fluid film thickness between the tool and workpiece, the effective pressure profile has a flat-top distribution. This flat-top pressure profile differs from the parabolic pressure distributions predicted by Hertzian mechanics. Furthermore, the shear contribution is shown here to be a key contributor to material removal, inducing the removal at the periphery of the contact edge and even outside the generally accepted contact area. Finally, the simulated fluid velocities provide evidence of mixed-mode contact polishing, supporting recent experimental findings that also suggest that onset of hydroplaning contributions lead to material removal drop-off.
HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps
The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.
Ultrafast valley polarization of graphene nanorings
Here, we study theoretically electron dynamics of a graphene nanoring placed in the field of an ultrashort optical pulse. We describe the graphene nanoring within an effective model with infinite mass boundary conditions. For an optical pulse with a duration of just a few femtoseconds, the electron dynamics is coherent and is described by a time-dependent Schrödinger equation. If the optical pulse is circularly polarized, then two valleys of graphene are populated differently, resulting in a finite valley polarization of the system after the pulse. Such a valley polarization is a unique property of graphene nanoscale systems, while for a graphene monolayer, a circularly polarized pulse does not produce any valley polarization. The valley polarization of the graphene nanoring depends on parameters of the system, such as inner and outer radii. With the system's size increasing, the valley polarization monotonically decreases, converging to its zero value for the infinite graphene monolayer.
Temperature Controlled Glass Additive Manufacturing
Glass additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging technology with a wide range of applications in chemistry, biology, optical science, and engineering. A custom laser-based glass 3D printer was developed by a group of engineers at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and is being optimized to produce hardware for chemical processing equipment, microfluidic systems, as well as optical elements. AM glass using a filament deposition modeling (FDM) approach allows for generation of parts with high optical quality. The quality of the glass can be affected by the generation of defects such as bubbles and vaporization which affect the optical quality of the glass. The defects can also affect the mechanical performance of the glass and lead to sample cracking.
Hybrid Tandem Photovoltaics
Tandem solar cell structures are the only strategy demonstrated to surpass the detailed balance efficiency limit of high-quality single-junction solar cells. To continue to improve the efficiencies of cost-effective terrestrial solar power, hybrid tandems of dissimilar subcells are being considered by many around the world, especially designs that incorporate silicon solar cells as a bottom subcell. In this project, we studied a wide variety of tandem design possibilities including those with three-terminal (3T) and four-terminal (4T) configurations. The use of 3T and 4T designs could be useful for efficient and economical hybrid tandem designs that utilize the best available subcell materials such as emerging perovskite materials. Three-terminal configurations, in particular, have not been sufficiently studied previously. We have laid the foundational groundwork in this project for understanding the operation of 3T tandems: developing a taxonomy for naming, a methodology for measuring and interconnecting, and models for simply characterizing 3T tandems. Electrical and optical subcell coupling between the subcells was also measured and modeled. An important part of this work was the fabrication of novel example tandem structures, including 4T GaAs/Si, 3T GaInP/Si, 3T GaAs/Si, and 3T GaInP/GaAs devices. Using these high-quality tandem cells, we have been able to clearly demonstrate the achievability of high-efficiencies, and subtle physical effects such as photon recycling and luminescent coupling. We have developed and demonstrated essential building-block tools such as transparent conductive adhesives (TCA) and 3T silicon bottom cells with interdigitated back contacts (IBC) that can also be used in many other tandem designs. We have tested the reliability of these tools and devices under standardized testing and outdoor measurements. We have found 4T GaAs/Si tandems to be relatively straightforward to fabricate and robust in real-world outdoor conditions. While we have demonstrated working hybrid 3T III-V/TCA/Si IBC tandems, we experienced low yields even with our best process flows yet. Further work is still needed to improve the processing yield of these devices. We therefore also created tandem cells using an all-III-V 3T tandem process which was very robust with high yields, allowing for the creation of voltage-matched strings in many different configurations using 8 nearly identical 3T tandems. Using these robust 3T tandem examples, we were able measure and precisely characterize 3T tandem behaviors to predict their operation under changing spectrum and temperature. The optoelectronic equivalent-circuit model was shown to be very general and applicable to hybrid tandems, and encompassed the operation 3T Si IBC cells. This general model has been distributed to the public in as open-source Python-based software called PVcircuit. We have calculated the implications of these new tandem device designs on the real-world energy production and shown how the relative performance of different tandem configurations is situational and can be engineered using the tools developed here.
The Solar Neighborhood. XLVII. Comparing M-dwarf Models with Hubble Space Telescope Dynamical Masses and Spectroscopy
We use HST/STIS optical spectroscopy of 10 M dwarfs in five closely separated binary systems to test models of M-dwarf structure and evolution. Individual dynamical masses ranging from 0.083 to 0.405 M {sub ⊙} for all stars are known from previous work. We first derive temperature, radius, luminosity, surface gravity, and metallicity by fitting the BT-Settl atmospheric models. We verify that our methodology agrees with empirical results from long-baseline optical interferometry for stars of similar spectral types. We then test whether or not evolutionary models can predict those quantities given the stars’ known dynamical masses and the conditions of coevality and equal metallicity within each binary system. We apply this test to five different evolutionary model sets: the Dartmouth models, the MESA/MIST models, the models of Baraffe et al., the PARSEC models, and the YaPSI models. We find marginal agreement between evolutionary model predictions and observations, with few cases where the models respect the condition of coevality in a self-consistent manner. We discuss the pros and cons of each family of models and compare their predictive power.
Online Modelling and Optimization of Nonlinear Integrable Systems
Nonlinear integrable optics was recently proposed as a design approach to increase the limits on beam brightness and intensity imposed by fast collective instabilities. To study these systems experimentally, a new research electron and proton storage ring, the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator, was constructed and recently commissioned at Fermilab. Beam-based diagnostics and online modelling of nonlinear systems presents unique challenges - in this paper, we report on our efforts to develop optimization methods suited for such lattices. We explore the effectiveness of neural networks as fast online surrogate estimators, and integrate them into a beam-based tuning algorithm. We also develop a method of knob dimensionality reduction and subsequent robust multivariate optimization for maximizing key performance metrics under complicated lattice optics constraints.
Testing of an Optical Fiber--Based Gamma Thermometer in the High Flux Isotope Reactor Gamma Irradiation Facility
This report describes the design, thermal modeling, and gamma irradiation testing of an optical fiber–based gamma thermometer (OFBGT), which was irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Gamma Irradiation Facility (GIF). OFBGTs are a promising technology for application in nuclear reactors because they can provide a distributed measurement of gamma ray heating rate, unlike thermocouple-based gamma thermometers, which are fixed in-core sensors that can be used in boiling water reactors to calibrate local power range monitors. OFBGTs measure gamma ray heating rate by measuring the temperature difference between a pair of optical fibers; one fiber is in thermal contact with a heat sink (usually the reactor coolant), and the other is in thermal contact with a thermally isolated mass. The device can be calibrated with a heating wire within the thermal mass. The OFBGT that was designed and fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory can measure distributed gamma ray heating rate over an effective measurement length of 61 cm, and the outer diameter of the sensor is 12.7 mm, giving the prototypical sensor design a relatively small footprint. The sensor housing is backfilled with Ar to ensure a well-predicted thermal response that is not affected by humidity or chemical interactions during operation. For calibration, the sensor design uses a Ni–Cr wire, which can be supplied with currents from 0 to 1 A to capture the wide range of potential gamma ray heating rates expected in HFIR’s spent fuel elements. The OFBGT was thermally modeled analytically and numerically; both models account for temperature-dependent thermal conductivities of the materials and show good agreement. The thermal response of the sensor inside spent HFIR fuel elements was simulated for times up to 1 year after discharge of the fuel element. Out-of-pile open-air tests indicated that the steady-state response of the sensor matches modeled results within experimental uncertainty. Calibration tests were performed using electrical heating in the HFIR spent fuel pool, above the fuel elements, to establish a relationship between the difference in spectral shift measured by optical fibers located inside and outside the OFBGT and the applied electrical heating. Subsequently, the OFBGT was placed within the the spent fuel element from HFIR cycle 501 to measure the spatial profile of the gamma heating rates. Results showed good agreement between the theoretical and measured gamma dose rate profiles, with maximum deviations of ~10% or less.
Geant4-based multiphysics simulation toolkit for analysis of radiation detector performance
Often only a single physical process or component is investigated in the simulation of radiation detector systems. The results are then considered to be representative of what is expected in the correlating physical experiment. Although singular assessments may serve as a good estimate, the overall performance of a radiation detector system depends on several physical processes and the performance of all components within the system. Our Geant4-based multiphysics simulation toolkit couples radiation transport with optical photon processes, providing simulations of radiation detector systems components from the scintillator through the photocathode of the photodetector. Work to incorporate the back-end detector components, including the complete photodetector and subsequent electronics (e.g., amplifiers, digitizers), is underway. Geant4 is used to model the radiation transport and optical photon processes that occur in the front-end detector system components when exposed to a chosen source. These components include the scintillator, detector housing, optical coupling to the photodetector, and photocathode of the photodetector. Characteristics of several detector systems that have been studied include time response; pulse height spectra; number of photoelectrons per MeV; detector efficiency versus incident quanta energy; and effects on detector response due to change in geometries, materials, and reflectivity. Comparison of these characteristics by means of this toolkit enables the selection of the optimal individual components; thus, it is possible to specify the radiation detector system best suited to meet the requirements of any physical experiment.
Using Lightning Flashes to Image Thunderclouds
We report the optical energy emitted by lightning flashes interacts with the surrounding cloud medium through scattering and absorption. The optical signals recorded by space-based lightning imagers describe a convolution of lightning flash energetics and radiative transfer effects in the intervening cloud layer. A thundercloud imaging technique is presented that characterizes cloud regions based on how they are illuminated by lightning. This technique models the spatial distribution of optical energy in radiant lightning pulses to determine whether and to what extent each illuminated cloud pixel behaves like a homogeneous planar cloud layer. A gridded product is constructed that differentiates flashes that illuminate convective cells from stratiform flashes with long horizontal channels and anvil flashes whose optical emissions reflect off of nearby cloud surfaces. Lastly, producing this imagery with a rolling 15-min window allows us to visualize changes in convection with a rapid (20 s) update cycle.
Single pion production and pion propagation in A chilles
We extend the applicability of A chilles (A CHIcagoLand Lepton Event Simulator) by incorporating the single pion production mechanism in a fully exclusive fashion. The electroweak interaction vertex is modeled by combining the state-of-the-art dynamical coupled-channels approach with realistic hole spectral functions, which account for correlations in both the initial target state and the residual spectator system. Final-state interactions are treated using a semiclassical intranuclear cascade that leverages nuclear configurations to determine the correlated spatial distribution of protons and neutrons. The meson-baryon scattering amplitudes used in the cascade are computed within the dynamical coupled-channels framework, consistent with the electroweak vertex. To model pion absorption, we employ the optical potential approach of Oset and Salcedo [Nucl. Phys. A484, 557 (1988).]. As an alternative approach, we explicitly model the production and propagation of resonances which mediate pion-nucleon scattering and pion absorption. We validate our approach against pion-nucleon and pion-nucleus scattering data, and present comparisons with electron- and neutrino-nucleus measurements from e4𝜈, T2K, MINER𝜈A, and MicroBooNE.
Compensation of heat load deformations using adaptive optics for the ALS upgrade: a wave optics study
In this paper, a realistic wave optics simulation method has been developed to study how wavefront distortions originating from heat load deformations can be corrected using adaptive X-ray optics. Several planned soft X-ray and tender X-ray insertion-device beamlines in the Advanced Light Source upgrade rely on a common design principle. A flat, first mirror intercepts the white beam; vertical focusing is provided by a variable-line-space monochromator; and horizontal focusing comes from a single, pre-figured, adaptive mirror. A variety of scenarios to cope with thermal distortion in the first mirror are studied by finite-element analysis. The degradation of the intensity distribution at the focal plane is analyzed and the adaptive optics that correct it is modeled. The range of correctable wavefront errors across the operating range of the beamlines is reported in terms of mirror curvature and spatial frequencies. The software developed is a one-dimensional wavefront propagation package made available in the OASYS suite, an adaptable, customizable and efficient beamline modeling platform.
Cold gas mass measurements for the era of large optical spectroscopic surveys
ABSTRACT Gas plays an important role in many processes in galaxy formation and evolution, but quantifying the importance of gas has been hindered by the challenge to measure gas masses for large samples of galaxies. Data sets of direct atomic and molecular gas measurements are sufficient to establish simple scaling relations, but often not large enough to quantify three-parameter relations, or second-order dependences. As an alternative approach, we derive here indirect cold gas measurements from optical emission lines using photoionization models for galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main galaxy sample and the PHANGS-MUSE survey. We calibrate the gas surface density measurements using xCOLD GASS and PHANGS-ALMA molecular gas measurements to ensure that our measurements are reliable. We demonstrate the importance of taking into account the scale dependence of the relation between optical depth (τ V ) and gas surface density (Σ gas ) and provide a general prescription to estimate Σ gas from τ V , metallicity, and the dust-to-metal ratio, at any arbitrary physical resolution. To demonstrate that the indirect cold gas masses are accurate enough to quantify the role of gas in galaxy evolution, we study the mass–metallicity relation of SDSS galaxies and show that as a third parameter gas mass is better than star formation rate at reducing the scatter of the relation, as predicted by models and simulations.
Distributed fiber-optic sensing in a subscale high-temperature superconducting dipole magnet
High-temperature superconductors, such as REBa2Cu3O7−x (REBCO, RE = rare earth), are becoming pivotal for high-field magnet technology for future circular colliders and compact fusion reactors. The U.S. Magnet Development Program, in collaboration with industry, is developing REBCO magnet technology using round conductors consisting of multiple REBCO tapes. For these multi-tape cables, traditional instrumentation, such as voltage taps and resistive strain gauges, become insufficient to help measure and understand the performance-limiting factors in these model magnets. Distributed fiber-optic sensing (DFOS) is a potential solution to address this challenge. Although DFOS is well established for various applications, measuring temperature and strain in high-temperature superconducting magnets is in its infancy. Here we report the detailed implementation and test results of DFOS based on Rayleigh scattering in a subscale canted cosθ (CCT) dipole magnet using high-temperature superconducting CORC® wires. We co-wound optical fibers in each layer of the CCT magnet and compared different types of commercial fibers and mold-release agents to reduce the power attenuation in the fibers. The DFOS allowed us to measure mechanical deformation and temperature along the conductor during tests at 77 and 4.2 K. The measured strain agreed quantitively with a finite-element mechanical model of the subscale magnet. Our results indicate that DFOS can effectively identify locations of strain and temperature changes, offering unique insight into magnet performance that can advance our understanding and development of the REBCO magnet technology for high-energy physics and fusion applications.