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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Meso-scale modeling of UO2 nuclear fuel to high burnup

To improve the economics of light water reactors for commercial nuclear energy generation, utility operators are seeking to obtain regulatory approval to run UO2 fuel to higher levels of burnup. One potential impediment to obtaining this approval is the phenomenon of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). FFRD can result when fuel experiences a rapid temperature transient, such as that occurring during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). FFRD has historically been most associated with the rim region in UO2 fuel pellets, where the phenomenon of fragmentation is also referred to as pulverization due to the small size of the fragments. More recent evidence suggests that the so-called “dark zone” (due to its appearance in micrographs) that can be observed in the mid-radial regions of high burnup fuel is also susceptible to FFRD. Although empirical fuel performance models have been developed that can adequately predict pulverization in the rim region under typical LWR conditions, a scientific understanding of what underlies fuel restructuring and subsequent FFRD is lacking even in the rim region, and no models are currently available for the behavior the dark zone. To address these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has employed a multi-scale modeling approach to improve scientific understanding and develop new fuel performance models. In this talk, I will focus on meso-scale efforts, which form a crucial link between atomic-scale and engineering-scale models. Phase-field modeling combined with cluster dynamics is used to predict the restructuring process in the rim region. Phase-field fracture modeling, informed by atomistic simulations, is used to predict the onset of pulverization in the rim region. Combining these techniques together allows the extent of rim pulverization to be predicted. The formation and evolution of the dark zone has also been simulated with the phase-field method, using an improved approach to vacancy source term parameterization. The work shows the important impact of microstructure on fuel performance.

fracture↗
NASA NTRS1990

Performance and modeling of superconducting ring resonators at millimeter-wave frequencies

Microstrip ring resonators operating at 35 GHz were fabricated from laser ablated YBCO thin films deposited on lanthanum aluminate substrates. They were measured over a range of temperatures and their performance compared to identical resonators made of evaporated gold. Below 60 Kelvin the superconducting strip performed better than the gold, reaching an unloaded Q approximately 1.5 times that of gold at 25 K. A shift in the resonant frequency follows the form predicted by the London equations. The Phenomenological Loss Equivalence Method is applied to the ring resonator and the theoretically calculated Q values are compared to the experimental results.

Bhasin, K. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comprehensive Machine Learning Model for Metal–Ligand Binding Prediction: Applications in Chemistry and Biology

A machine-learning (ML) model that predicts metal–ligand binding constants was developed using the open-source Chemprop software. The model was trained on over 30,000 experimental log K 1 values, which include both protonation and metal–ligand stability constants, comprising over 3500 ligands and 10 2 metal ions from 73 total elements, thus generalizing beyond existing limited approaches, which focus only on specific metals or ligand families. The best-performing model included a combination of SMILES-based molecular representations along with descriptors for the metal ion and experimental conditions. It had an external test R 2 value of 0.942, and MAE value of 0.834. A “SMILES-only” simpler version also produced accurate predictions and preserved the binding trends, serving as a quick and easily accessible alternative for users without computational expertise. The SMILES-only model performed comparably to density functional theory (DFT) calculations but utilized a fraction of the computational resources. The model was successfully applied across diverse domains, including bioinorganic chemistry, heavy metal remediation, and sensor development and demonstrated its effectiveness as a rapid and reliable screening tool for both academic and industrial uses.

Ligands↗
NASA NTRS1979

METAPHOR: Programmer's guide, Version 1

The internal structure of the Michigan Evaluation Aid for Perphormability (METAPHOR), an interactive software package to facilitate performability modeling and evaluation is described. Revised supplemented guides are prepared in order to maintain an up-to-date documentation of the system. Programmed tools to facilitate each step of performability model construction and model solution are given.

Furchtgott, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Simulation Modeling and Performance Evaluation of Space Networks

In space exploration missions, the coordinated use of spacecraft as communication relays increases the efficiency of the endeavors. To conduct trade-off studies of the performance and resource usage of different communication protocols and network designs, JPL designed a comprehensive extendable tool, the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE). The design and development of MACHETE began in 2000 and is constantly evolving. Currently, MACHETE contains Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) protocol standards such as Proximity-1, Advanced Orbiting Systems (AOS), Packet Telemetry/Telecommand, Space Communications Protocol Specification (SCPS), and the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP). MACHETE uses the Aerospace Corporation s Satellite Orbital Analysis Program (SOAP) to generate the orbital geometry information and contact opportunities. Matlab scripts provide the link characteristics. At the core of MACHETE is a discrete event simulator, QualNet. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is an end-to-end architecture providing communication in and/or through highly stressed networking environments. Stressed networking environments include those with intermittent connectivity, large and/or variable delays, and high bit error rates. To provide its services, the DTN protocols reside at the application layer of the constituent internets, forming a store-and-forward overlay network. The key capabilities of the bundling protocols include custody-based reliability, ability to cope with intermittent connectivity, ability to take advantage of scheduled and opportunistic connectivity, and late binding of names to addresses. In this presentation, we report on the addition of MACHETE models needed to support DTN, namely: the Bundle Protocol (BP) model. To illustrate the use of MACHETE with the additional DTN model, we provide an example simulation to benchmark its performance. We demonstrate the use of the DTN protocol and discuss statistics gathered concerning the total time needed to simulate numerous bundle transmissions

network protocols↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗
NASA NTRS1992

High temperature furnace modeling and performance verifications

Analytical, numerical, and experimental studies were performed on two classes of high temperature materials processing sources for their potential use as directional solidification furnaces. The research concentrated on a commercially available high temperature furnace using a zirconia ceramic tube as the heating element and an Arc Furnace based on a tube welder. The first objective was to assemble the zirconia furnace and construct parts needed to successfully perform experiments. The 2nd objective was to evaluate the zirconia furnace performance as a directional solidification furnace element. The 3rd objective was to establish a data base on materials used in the furnace construction, with particular emphasis on emissivities, transmissivities, and absorptivities as functions of wavelength and temperature. A 1-D and 2-D spectral radiation heat transfer model was developed for comparison with standard modeling techniques, and were used to predict wall and crucible temperatures. The 4th objective addressed the development of a SINDA model for the Arc Furnace and was used to design sample holders and to estimate cooling media temperatures for the steady state operation of the furnace. And, the 5th objective addressed the initial performance evaluation of the Arc Furnace and associated equipment for directional solidification. Results of these objectives are presented.

Smith, James E., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in predicting protein-protein interactions of understudied viruses: Arenavirus-human interactions

Understanding protein-protein interactions (PPIs) between viruses and host organisms is crucial for uncovering infection mechanisms and identifying potential therapeutic targets. The ability to generalize PPI predictive models across understudied viruses presents a significant challenge. In this work, we use arenavirus-human PPIs to illustrate the difficulties associated with model generalization, which are compounded by a lack of both positive and negative data. We employ a Transfer Learning approach to investigate arenavirus-human PPIs by utilizing models trained on better-studied virus-human and human-human PPIs. Additionally, we curate and assess four types of negative sampling datasets to evaluate their impact on model performance. Despite the overall high accuracies (93–99 %) and AUPRC scores (0.8–0.9) appearing promising, further analysis indicates that these performance metrics can be misleading due to data leakage, data bias, and overfitting, especially concerning under-represented viral proteins. We reveal these gaps and assess the impact of data imbalance using standard k-fold cross-validation and Independent Blind Testing with a Balanced Dataset, resulting in a drop in accuracy below 50 %. We propose a viral protein-specific evaluation framework that categorizes viral proteins into majority and minority classes based on their representation in the dataset, enabling comparison of model performance across these groups using balanced accuracies. This framework offers a more robust evaluation of model generalizability, addressing biases inherent in standard evaluation techniques and paving the way for more reliable PPI prediction models for understudied viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Distributed Space Mission Design for Earth Observation Using Model-Based Performance Evaluation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth observation missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in multiple dimensions. DSM design is a complex problem with many design variables, multiple objectives determining performance and cost and emergent, often unexpected, behaviors. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables, minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool that can multiple DSM architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and size those architectures in terms of predefined science and cost metrics. The tool will help a user select Pareto optimal DSM designs based on design of experiments techniques. The tool will be applied to some earth observation examples to demonstrate its applicability in making some key decisions between different performance metrics and cost metrics early in the design lifecycle.

Constellation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Design and Performance of Lift-Offset Rotorcraft for Short-Haul Missions

The design and performance of compound helicopters utilizing lift-offset rotors are examined, in the context of short-haul, medium-size civil and military missions. The analysis tools used are the comprehensive analysis CAMRAD II and the sizing code NDARC. Following correlation of the comprehensive analysis with existing lift-offset aircraft flight test data, the rotor performance model for the sizing code was developed, and an initial estimate was made of the rotor size and key hover and cruise flight conditions. The rotor planform and twist were optimized for those conditions, and the sizing code rotor performance model updated. Two models for estimating the blade and hub weight of lift-offset rotors are discussed. The civil and military missions are described, along with the aircraft design assumptions. The aircraft are sized for 30 passengers or 6600 lb payload, with a range of 300 nm. Civil and military aircraft designs are described for each of the rotor weight models. Disk loading and blade loading were varied to optimize the designs, based on gross weight and fuel burn. The influence of technology is shown, in terms of rotor hub drag and rotor weight.

Johnson, Wayne↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Surface Radiation Balance Data Set from Siple Dome in West Antarctica for Atmospheric and Climate Model Evaluation

A field campaign at Siple Dome in West Antarctica during the austral summer 2019-2020 offers an opportunity to evaluate climate model performance, particularly cloud microphysical simulation. Over Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves, clouds are a major regulator of the surface energy balance, and in the warm season their presence occasionally induces surface melt that can gradually weaken an ice shelf structure. This dataset from Siple Dome, obtained using transportable and solar-poweredequipment, includes surface energy balance measurements, meteorology and cloud remote sensing. To demonstrate how these data can be used to evaluate model performance, comparisons are made with meteorological reanalysis known to give generally good performance over Antarctica (ERA5). Surface albedo measurements show expected variability with observed cloud amount, and can be used to evaluate a model's snowpack parameterization. One case study discussed involves a squall with northerly winds, during which ERA5 fails to produce cloud cover throughout one of the days. A second case study illustrates how shortwave spectroradiometer measurements that encompass the 1.6-micron atmospheric window reveal cloud phase transitions associated with cloud lifecycle. Here, continuously precipitating mixed-phase clouds become mainly liquid water clouds from local morning through the afternoon, not reproduced by ERA5. We challenge researchers to run their various regional or global models in a manner that has the large-scale meteorology follow the conditions of this field campaign, compare cloud and radiation simulations with this Siple Dome dataset, and potentially investigate why cloud microphysical simulations or other model components might produce discrepancies with these observations.

cloud remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Comparative Study of Three Reconnection X Line Models at the Earth's Dayside Magnetopause Using in Situ Observations

This work examines the large-scale aspects of magnetic field reconnection at the Earth's dayside magnetopause. We use two sets of reconnection events, which are identified mostly by the in situ detection of accelerated and Alfvenic plasma flows. We intercompare three analytical models that predict the reconnection X line location and orientation, namely, the Trattner et al. (2007) and Swisdak and Drake (2007) models and also a modified version of the component merging model. In the first set of reconnection observations, we show three fortuitous, quasi-simultaneous dayside magnetopause crossing events where two widely separated spacecraft detect reconnection signatures, and the X line location and orientation can be inferred from the observations. We compare X line model predictions to those inferred from observations. These three reconnection events indicate the presence of an extended (greater than 7 Earth radii in length), component-type reconnection X line on Earth's dayside magnetopause connecting and structuring the reconnection signatures at locations far apart. In the second set of reconnection events, we analyze the X line models' performance in predicting the observed reconnection outflow direction, i.e., its north-south and/or east-west senses, in a total of 75 single, rather than multiple and quasi-simultaneous, magnetopause crossing events, where reconnection-associated plasma flows were clearly present. We found that the Swisdak and Drake's (2007) X line model performs slightly better, albeit not statistically significant, when predicting both accelerated plasma flow north-south and east-west components in 73% and 53% of the cases, respectively, as compared to the Trattner et al. (2007) model (70% north-south and 42% east-west) and the modified component merging model (66% north-south and 50% east-west).

Souza, V. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Color Space and Color Resolution on Vehicle Recognition Models

In this study, we analyze both linear and nonlinear color mappings by training on versions of a curated dataset collected in a controlled campus environment. We experiment with color space and color resolution to assess model performance in vehicle recognition tasks. Color encodings can be designed in principle to highlight certain vehicle characteristics or compensate for lighting differences when assessing potential matches to previously encountered objects. The dataset used in this work includes imagery gathered under diverse environmental conditions, including daytime and nighttime lighting. Experimental results inform expectations for possible improvements with automatic color space selection through feature learning. Moreover, we find there is only a gradual decrease in model performance with degraded color resolution, which suggests the need for simplified data collection and processing. By focusing on the most critical features, we could see improved model generalization and robustness, as the model becomes less prone to overfitting to noise or irrelevant details in the data. Such a reduction in resolution will lower computational complexity, leading to quicker training and inference times.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻ Using Run 3 Scouting Data Analyze b-tagging and tau-tagging Performance with Unified Particle Transformer

B-tagging and tau-tagging performances play an important role in the search for the rare event HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻. A transformer-based neural network, Unified Particle Transformer, is applied for both tagging tasks, and Run 3 proton–proton collision scouting data at center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV is used. The scouting data stream accepts events at a much higher rate compared to traditional triggers, but stores only the objects reconstructed in the trigger, no low-level detector information. Therefore, existing taggers trained for the offline event reconstruction cannot be used. Analysis of the SoftMax plots, ROC/AUC curves, confusion matrix, accuracy and losses are used to evaluate model performance. Specifically, the tagging efficiency of the signal and misidentification probability across multiple background processes are compared for varying working points. Different training samples with distinct distributions of jet flavors are utilized and related model performances are analyzed. Interpretability methods, such as Integrated Gradients, may further be applied to study the input features’ influence on the model’s decisions, providing insights into potential improvements.

Chen, Blair [Purdue U., West Lafayette; Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wild fire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry, a Marin-based fire service work force development program, to develop new models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, Planet Scope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the team developed several input data layers to three models evaluating wild fire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature, another utilized machine learning based on past fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn ratio, and the third inputted data layers into the Flam Map tool, which outputs risk categories. The team compared model outputs and, using the best-fit model, performed fuzzy logic analysis to identify specific locations where a fire break could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools were proven useful and will assist partners in preparing for and managing an active wildfire event.

Suhani Dalal↗