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Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Guide to Energy Master Planning of High-Performance Districts and Communities

This guide was developed with partners throughout the United States to demonstrate how implementing district-scale high-performance strategies can be successful and scalable approaches to achieving deep energy savings that increase affordability, improve resilience, reduce emissions, and foster economic development. This document serves as a framework for districts, campuses, and communities, illustrating an iterative process of building support for, planning, and implementing high-performance districts by engaging stakeholders, setting aggressive energy goals, completing technical and financial planning, and implementing a high-performance energy master plan. The information in this guide is based on a 3-year U.S. Department of Energy Zero Energy District Accelerator and a range of real-world examples of emerging high-performance districts. It is particularly useful for architects, planners, engineers, local government agencies, and real estate developers in the early phases of planning a district with high-performance or other deep energy goals. For the purposes of this guide, a high-performance district is a multibuilding development that achieves aggressive energy and related goals such as zero energy, carbon neutrality, sustainability, ultra-efficiency, etc. High-performance districts optimize energy efficiency to reduce energy loads and use renewable energy resources to meet the remaining loads whenever possible. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 defines a high-performance building as “a building that integrates and optimizes on a life cycle basis all major high-performance attributes, including energy conservation, environment, safety, security, durability, accessibility, cost-benefit, productivity, sustainability, functionality, and operational considerations.” High-performance districts are collections of such buildings that take advantage of the synergies available when energy consumption and production are considered at a district level rather than one building at a time.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator: Second Quarter 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fueling Station Locator contains information on public and private non-residential alternative fueling stations in the United States and Canada and currently tracks ethanol (E85), biodiesel, compressed natural gas, electric vehicle (EV) charging, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and propane stations. Of these fuels, EV charging continues to experience rapidly changing technology and growing infrastructure. This report provides a snapshot of the state of EV charging infrastructure in the United States in the second calendar quarter of 2020. Using data from the Station Locator, this report breaks down the growth of public and private charging infrastructure by charging level, network, and location. Additionally, this report measures the current state of charging infrastructure compared with the amount projected to meet charging demand by 2030. This information is intended to help transportation planners, policymakers, researchers, infrastructure developers, and others understand the rapidly changing landscape for EV charging. This is the second report in a new series. The first report for the first calendar quarter of 2020 can be found in the publication databases of the Alternative Fuels Data Center and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Energy Approaches for Mixed-Use Developments in the Front Range Urban Corridor

The primary objective of the document is to present example technical approaches and strategies that planners and developers can reference for all-electric mixed-use developments in the Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor that are considering advanced energy performance goals such as high levels of energy efficiency and renewable integration. The strategies are tailored toward the vision for a zero energy, all-electric, district thermal system-connected starter district. In this example, on-site solar generation is emphasized as a strategy that can be combined with electrical and thermal energy storage for enhanced community resilience and demand flexibility. Opportunities for utilizing or adapting these strategies include: sharing with vertical developers for potential integration of strategies into vertical design guidelines; incorporation into Owner Project Requirements (OPRs); providing example strategies to design teams as a starting point for design; informing structure of agenda for a building design charrette; comparing building designs to example strategies at various points in the design process to evaluate design progression. While the technical strategies outlined in this document can help inform the development of guidelines for projects in the Front Range urban corridor, this document does not set requirements for any rating, certification, program, or policy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methods for Representing Flexible, Energy-Constrained Technologies in Utility Planning Tools

Capacity expansion models are widely used by power system researchers, planners, and policy analysts to evaluate alternative power system investment scenarios. With the increasing deployment of wind and solar in the US, there has been much focus on improving the representations of variable generation (VG) technologies within capacity expansion models. Models that capture the variable net-load profiles and larger reserve requirements associated with high penetration VG systems represent an improvement to classic capacity expansion models, but fall short of capturing the complexities associated with storage technologies, such as battery energy storage (BES) and concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP with TES). While difficult to model in a capacity expansion setting, these technologies are potentially competitive sources of flexibility with the intriguing characteristics of being able to absorb VG that would otherwise be curtailed and directly contribute to renewable energy goals, respectively. In this paper we present methods for accurately representing these technologies in a large-scale capacity expansion model with high electrical and geospatial resolution. VG modeling techniques, including novel methods for capturing curtailment due to unit commitment and other hourly dispatch phenomena, are also reviewed. Modeling for a region in the southwestern United States demonstrates the economic relevance of being able to explicitly trade off the costs and capabilities of energy-constrained technologies, especially BES, against other resources in the near-term, in time to make plans for the coming decade

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator: Third Quarter 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fueling Station Locator contains information on public and private non-residential alternative fueling stations in the United States and Canada and currently tracks ethanol (E85), biodiesel, compressed natural gas, electric vehicle (EV) charging, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and propane stations. Of these fuels, EV charging continues to experience rapidly changing technology and growing infrastructure. This report provides a snapshot of the state of EV charging infrastructure in the United States in the third calendar quarter of 2020. Using data from the Station Locator, this report breaks down the growth of public and private charging infrastructure by charging level, network, and location. Additionally, this report measures the current state of charging infrastructure compared with the amount projected to meet charging demand by 2030. This information is intended to help transportation planners, policymakers, researchers, infrastructure developers, and others understand the rapidly changing landscape for EV charging. This is the third report in a new series. Reports for the first two calendar quarters of 2020 can be found in the publication databases of the Alternative Fuels Data Center and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Nuclear Targeting Terms for Engineers and Scientists Revised Edition

This is a revised version of LA-UR-17-20752, Nuclear Targeting Terms for Engineers and Scientists, March 1, 2017. The discussion of compounding for damage and compounding for reliability was reworded for clarity. The Department of Defense has a methodology for targeting nuclear weapons, and a jargon that is used to communicate between the analysts, planners, aircrews, and missile crews. The typical engineer or scientist in the Department of Energy may not have been exposed to the nuclear weapons targeting terms and methods. This report provides an introduction to the terms and methodologies used for nuclear targeting. Its purpose is to prepare engineers and scientists to participate in wargames, exercises, and discussions with the Department of Defense. Terms such as Circular Error Probable, probability of hit and damage, damage expectancy, and the physical vulnerability system are discussed. Methods for compounding damage from multiple weapons applied to one target are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Real Time - Optimal Power Flow Based Distributed Energy Resources Management System (DERMS) (CRADA Number CRD-20-16909 Final Report)

The integration of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems brings transformative changes to power systems. This requires operators and planners to find solutions to modernize electric grids and to effectively manage DERs for grid services. NREL developed novel DER management algorithms (referred to as Real-Time Optimal Power Flow, RT-OPF) through U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded efforts, including Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) Network Optimized Distributed Energy Systems (NODES) funding. This cutting-edge control technology aims to modernize distribution systems with large amounts of DER integration, which will help utilities solve issues brought by renewable integration and build resilient and renewable-based electric grids nationwide. Utilidata worked with NREL to investigate the commercialization opportunity of this RT-OPF-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). In this project, NREL performs the technology transfer of the RT-OPF to Utilidata to help them fully understand the RT-OPF solution, to identify potential engineering hurdles, and to assess the expected commercial value of various RT-OPF use cases and deployment. The technology transfer work includes two major tasks. First, NREL performs an in-depth knowledge transfer of the entire RT-OPF solution to Utilidata to help them gain an extensive and detailed understanding of the complete RT-OPF solution. In this task, NREL provides exhaustive information (e.g., documentation, code packages, laboratory and field trial data, performance results) while conducting in-depth training sessions to provide a thorough explanation of the entire solution. NREL hosts meetings to present different topics related to the RT-OPF solution, and question-and-answer sessions are included in each meeting to better explain the RT-OPF-related work. Second, the RT-OPF simulations are performed in a laboratory environment. The main objectives of this task are to walk through with Utilidata engineers how to set up a simulation of RT-OPF, identifying each RT-OPF code block/component in operation, learning how these components interact with each other, and eventually running RT-OPF simulations under various system conditions. This task helps Utilidata engineers understand performance limitations and constraints while also quantifying the commercial value of the RT-OPF for different use cases. Based on these two tasks, Utilidata engineers should be able to define and prioritize the next steps of RT-OPF implementation with an eye toward commercial success and scalability of the solution. The next steps are expected to be part of a new project following the conclusion of this project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator (Q4 2020)

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Alternative Fueling Station Locator contains information on public and private non-residential alternative fueling stations in the United States and Canada and currently tracks ethanol (E85), biodiesel, compressed natural gas, electric vehicle (EV) charging, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and propane stations. Of these fuels, EV charging continues to experience rapidly changing technology and growing infrastructure. This report provides a snapshot of the state of EV charging infrastructure in the United States in the fourth calendar quarter of 2020 (Q4). Using data from the Station Locator, this report breaks down the growth of public and private charging infrastructure by charging level, network, and location. Additionally, this report measures the current state of charging infrastructure compared with the projected amount needed to meet charging demand by 2030. This information is intended to help transportation planners, policymakers, researchers, infrastructure developers, and others understand the rapidly changing landscape for EV charging. This is the fourth report in a series. Previous reports for the first (Q1), second (Q2), and third (Q3) calendar quarters of 2020 can be found in the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) publication databases.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A U.S. Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, and a companion report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Installation Assignment Durations and Patterns of Army Personnel

The purpose of this document is to report on the development of personnel assignment duration statistical metrics and statistical descriptions for groups of Army personnel aggregated by rank, career management field, and other descriptors for 32 Continental United States (CONUS) Army installations. This information can be used for generating evidence-based measures of personnel exposure times associated with environmental health considerations at the installation and career management field levels. Assignment duration statistical descriptions were developed to provide temporal metrics for groups of personnel at Army installations as foundational data to support a variety of assessments. Statistical results of personnel assignment durations at the installation level are provided in several formats. The 50th percentile assignment duration represents the median number of days personnel in groups aggregated by rank and career management field spend at the 32 CONUS Army installations in this study. Likewise, other duration percentiles (90th) and quartiles of assignment durations for groups aggregated by rank and career management field spend at each installation were developed. Assignment path analysis provide statistical descriptions of assignment durations at Army installations throughout increments of time (e.g., 5 years, 10 years). Key groupings of assignment paths were achieved by analyzing the duration of assignments at installations in chronological order from entry throughout specified increments of military service to generate the most common assignment paths across the 32 CONUS Army installations in this study. The developed assignment duration analytics and duration statistical descriptions provide foundational temporal metrics for groups of personnel at 32 CONUS Army installations to support a variety of assessments including those by human resource planners and environmental health specialists.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator: First Quarter 2021

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Alternative Fueling Station Locator contains information on public and private non-residential alternative fueling stations in the United States and Canada and currently tracks ethanol (E85), biodiesel, compressed natural gas, electric vehicle (EV) charging, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and propane stations. Of these fuels, EV charging continues to experience rapidly changing technology and growing infrastructure. This report provides a snapshot of the state of EV charging infrastructure in the United States in the first calendar quarter of 2021 (Q1). Using data from the Station Locator, this report breaks down the growth of public and private charging infrastructure by charging level, network, and location. Additionally, this report measures the current state of charging infrastructure compared with the target infrastructure volume for 2030. This information is intended to help transportation planners, policymakers, researchers, infrastructure developers, and others understand the rapidly changing landscape for EV charging. This is the fifth report in a series. Previous reports from 2020 can be found in the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) publication databases, as well as the AFDC Charging Infrastructure Trends page (https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure_trends.html).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Savings Performance Contracting for Small Projects

Energy Savings Performance Contracting (ESPC) is a budget-neutral approach to make building improvements that reduce energy and water use and increase operational efficiency. ESPC can help public-sector planners use tomorrow’s energy savings to fund today's facility and infrastructure upgrades. This resource highlights strategies and case studies for implementing ESPC in smaller towns, rural counties, and small school districts to complete energy upgrades and maximize energy and cost savings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Comprehensive Assessment of On-And Off-Board Vehicle-To-Grid Technology Performance and Impacts on Battery and the Grid

This project defined, developed, and tested the open standards-based requirements, engineering design and system integration of on and off-vehicle Vehicle-to-Grid technologies both on the grid and on the PEV, to assess their effectiveness in implementing the use cases that create value for the grid, which in turn, can be passed on to the ratepayers and the PEV owners. The project comprised of three key categories of work and four key sub-areas of work. The three key categories were: On-Vehicle V2G, Off-Vehicle V2G, and impact of V2G operation on the battery capacity degradation. The four key sub-areas of work under each of these categories were: defining requirements, implementing the technology, performing system integration testing, and estimating the value of each of the grid services under specific assumptions, on a per-vehicle and on an aggregated basis. The technical implementation demonstrated the validity of standards-based approach to grid integration that led to interoperability, in addition to assessing the operational details with grid constraints imposed at the transformer level. The technology implementation also identified the subtle gaps in the standards definition to close the feedback loop on the accuracy of the standards as written, which are being implemented as revisions to the appropriate protocols. The battery impacts assessment developed a test cycle that the batteries from a real PHEV were subjected to for both the mobility-only and mobility with V2G specific energy cycling. While the battery impact results show a clear incremental degradation in response to additional throughput for V2G application purposes, the amount of additional kWh that can be made available without exceeding the end-of-life capacity definition of the battery at its 10-year warranty period was found to be significant. Given that the PEV battery being exercised during testing was a PHEV battery (smaller energy capacity), and 44% of its usable energy (i.e., SOC) was utilized daily for V2G applications, the EVs with much larger batteries will fare much better, either in terms of extracting more value in terms of incremental kWh for V2G, or in terms of relative incremental degradation of the capacity through the battery lifespan. Further, this battery was the second-generation Lithium-Ion chemistry circa 2015, which is at least two generations ago. Continual improvements in electrochemistry and manufacturing techniques as well as on-board capacity will enable the future batteries to provide even more energy for non-mobility-related services. Finally, the valuation of V2G energy services at the premise, distribution, and the ISO/market level was carried out for both the on-vehicle and off-vehicle cases, to understand both the GHG mitigation and operational efficiency improvements in quantitative terms. The analysis indicates that between $\$400$ and $\$1400$ per year of total value to the grid can be realized. When netted of costs to implement V2G either on or off-vehicle, the net value is available to be shared between the ratepayers and the EV owners. Over the life of the EV, therefore, this value becomes significant and can easily provide both ratepayer and EV owner benefits more than the cost of the equipment, either on or off-board, in addition to providing GHG mitigation benefits both on the grid and on the mobility sides. For these benefits to accrue, the key learnings from both the on- and off-vehicle V2G parts of the project indicate the need for at-scale demonstrations through involvement of real EV owners to validate both the technical feasibility, interoperability, as well as real grid benefits by performing extensive data collection and analysis. This will help inform the grid planners, the program designs, and tariff designers, as well as automotive and equipment manufacturers how best to create their products to maximize grid, ratepayer, and EV owner value.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Modeling Framework for Evaluating Grid Disturbances

Recent research in the literature proposed parameter-based functional forms to quantify the impact of disturbances on electric power grids. This modeling was based on a concept of generalized grid disturbances that harmonized reliability and resilience. Three main stages—avoid, react, and recover—were identified, and to support practicality, were intended to be independently planned. An objective of the grid disturbance model was to fairly analyze the potential impacts of novel mitigations like transactive energy systems (TES) on grid reliability and resilience. Quantitative evaluation of a common performance metric (e.g., area under the curve of percentage customers online before, during, and after an event) over time was shown as an effective tool for such analysis. Such quantification may also enable system planners to assess the impact of appropriate mitigative actions for improving grid performance against potential disturbances. This is the focus of this report, i.e., presenting an evaluation modeling framework that can be utilized to evaluate grid performance against disturbances, under a variety of existing and possible new mitigative actions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator: Second Quarter 2021

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Alternative Fueling Station Locator contains information on public and private non-residential alternative fueling stations in the United States and Canada and currently tracks ethanol (E85), biodiesel, compressed natural gas, electric vehicle (EV) charging, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and propane stations. Of these fuels, EV charging continues to experience rapidly changing technology and growing infrastructure. This report provides a snapshot of the state of EV charging infrastructure in the United States in the second calendar quarter of 2021 (Q2). Using data from the Station Locator, this report breaks down the growth of public and private charging infrastructure by charging level, network, and location. Additionally, this report measures the current state of charging infrastructure compared with the target infrastructure volume for 2030. This information is intended to help transportation planners, policymakers, researchers, infrastructure developers, and others understand the rapidly changing landscape for EV charging. This is the sixth report in a series. Reports from previous quarters can be found in the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) publication databases, as well as the AFDC Charging Infrastructure Trends page (https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure_trends.html).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗