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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Predict Perovskite Solar Cell Electrical Metastability from Operando Photoluminescence Images in Accelerated Stress Testing

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells exhibit a metastable response to bias governed by coupled ionic–electronic processes, complicating the conventional reciprocity relation between luminescence intensity and device open-circuit voltage (V oc ). This limits the use of luminescence as a diagnostic for device screening or accelerated stress testing, motivating new approaches that can interpret photoluminescence (PL) signals under nonequilibrium conditions. From the artificial intelligence perspective, we develop an explainable deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, and an attention mechanism to learn spatiotemporal features from operando photoluminescence PL image sequences. The model achieves a mean absolute error of ±0.027 V in predicting open-circuit voltage transients and reduces extreme-tail errors by up to 78% compared to physics-based reciprocity calculations. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) provides interpretability by highlighting physically meaningful regions such as electrode edges and emergent defect features. From the engineering application perspective, this framework enables accurate, contactless prediction of device V oc and identification of degradation-relevant features during accelerated aging of perovskite solar cells. This approach demonstrates how explainable AI can enhance operando diagnostics and reliability analysis in photovoltaic devices under nonequilibrium conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Nonlinear System Identification

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have been recently proposed as a promising approach for nonlinear system identification tasks. In this work, we systematically compare their predictive performance with current state-of-the-art nonlinear and classical linear methods. In particular, we present a quantitative study comparing NODE's performance against neural state-space models and classical linear system identification methods and evaluate their inference speed and prediction performance on open-loop errors across eight different dynamical systems. The experiments show that NODEs can consistently improve the prediction accuracy by order of magnitude compared to benchmark methods. Besides improved accuracy, we also observed that NODEs are less sensitive to hyperparameters compared to neural state-space models by paying the cost of increased computation at the inference time.

machine leaning, system identification, physics in↗

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NEON AOP foliar trait maps, maps of model uncertainty estimates, and conifer map, East River, CO 2018

This data package contains mapped trait estimates and their uncertainties, and conifer map, for the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform survey data acquired over the Upper East River, Colorado in 2018. For full details, please see associated reference. in brief, trait models were developed independently for needle and non-needle leaf species using partial least squares regression (PLSR) using ground data from additional datasets: doi:10.15485/1618130, doi:10.15485/1618132, and doi:10.15485/1631278, merged with extracted spectral data from doi:10.15485/1618131. We separated vegetated pixels into needle and non-needle classes in order to generate a classification map based on the spectral differences between these leaf types (conifer.tif). We trained a deep learning model with custom architecture, detailed in Chadwick et al. In Press. The model performed with 0.998 true positive rate and 0.982 true negative rate, with ‘positives’ being non-needle identification. We then utilized PLSR to generate models of foliar traits for each leaf type. So that we could also map uncertainty in these predictions, we generated ten different models for needle and non-needle leaf species using different testing holdout sets of discrete sites. Each of these models was developed with a 100-fold cross validation procedure that utilized a 70% training set and 30% validation set with each fold, and then assessed based on the 10% of testing sites that were not included in that model’s development. The mean predicted value across the 10 models is used for the trait estimate in each pixel across the study area. The models are applied according to the leaf type designation in the conifer.tif map. The errors are the standard deviation across the 10 different models developed, with high error suggesting instability in model prediction and areas where values may not be reliable for ecological inference. These maps are only applied to areas with a NDVI > 0.5 to exclude non-vegetated areas. Shade masks could be applied to these data (doi:10.15485/1618131), but have not been for this data package. These data are also available on Google Earth Engine: https://code.earthengine.google.com/?asset=users/kdc/ER_NEON

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Crustal Leg Uncertainties for RSTT Path-dependent Uncertainty

The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) model and software were recently updated to allow for path-dependent uncertainty (PDU) estimates for travel-time (Begnaud et al. 2021; Begnaud et al. 2020). Begnaud et al. (2021) describes the process of improving the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model (REM) to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The REM separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The PDU is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Introducing the GeoRePORT Resource Size Tool: Reporting on Geothermal Resource Size Estimations Using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT): Preprint

The Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) was developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office to assist in identifying and pursuing long-term investment strategies through the development of a resource reporting protocol. The assessment protocols used in GeoRePORT allow for comparison of project attributes across locations and geological settings to understand the feasibility of geothermal development. This work introduces the Resource Size Tool, a new feature within the GeoRePORT package that compiles two independent methods for estimating geothermal resource size in terms of energy capacity in MW. Energy production potential for twenty-three case studies was estimated with the Resource Size Tool in order to 1) generate a reasonable range of resource size estimates for a particular geothermal field; 2) illustrate the advantages and limitations of each methodology (such as data input requirements, estimate accuracy and precision, and the appropriate circumstances of use); and 3) test the ability of the resource size tool to provide useful and accurate information for geothermal stakeholders. The tool employs two methods widely used in the geothermal industry: (1) USGS Volumetric and (2) Power Density. Results from our case studies show general overlap between these two methods in terms of resource size estimates; however, they also reveal key differences between the two approaches that should be considered when using such estimates to drive development. First, the two methods rely on different input parameters and therefore one method may be more appropriate and/or accurate for a given project than the other. Second, the Power Density method was found to generate wider ranges of resource size predictions, more consistently aligning with actual power production of the field but with larger scales of error; whereas the USGS Volumetric method predicts narrower ranges but tends to overestimate when compared to current MW production. Future work will refine variables used in the methods with input data from other sections of GeoRePORT and modify uncertainty levels based on the particular datasets used for a given project.

geological↗

Self-consistent implementation of locally scaled self-interaction-correction method

Recently proposed local self-interaction correction (LSIC) method is a one-electron self-interaction-correction (SIC) method that uses an iso-orbital indicator to apply the SIC at each point in space by scaling the exchange–correlation and Coulomb energy densities. The LSIC method is exact for the one-electron densities, also recovers the uniform electron gas limit of the uncorrected density functional approximation, and reduces to the well-known Perdew–Zunger SIC (PZSIC) method as a special case. This article presents the self-consistent implementation of the LSIC method using the ratio of Weizsäcker and Kohn–Sham kinetic energy densities as an iso-orbital indicator. The atomic forces as well as the forces on the Fermi-Löwdin orbitals are also implemented for the LSIC energy functional. Results show that LSIC with the simplest local spin density functional predicts atomization energies of the AE6 dataset better than some of the most widely used generalized-gradient-approximation (GGA) functional and barrier heights of the BH6 database better than some of the most widely used hybrid functionals. The LSIC method [a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.008 Å] predicts bond lengths of a small set of molecules better than the PZSIC-LSDA (MAE 0.042 Å) and LSDA (0.011 Å). Furthermore, this work shows that accurate results can be obtained from the simplest density functional by removing the self-interaction-errors using an appropriately designed SIC method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A combined experimental and numerical approach that eliminates the non-uniqueness associated with the Johnson-Cook parameters obtained using inverse methods

Abstract Johnson-Cook constitutive model is a commonly used material model for machining simulations. The model includes five parameters that capture the initial yield stress, strain-hardening, strain-rate hardening, and thermal softening behavior of the material. These parameters are difficult to determine using experiments since the conditions observed during machining (such as high strain-rates of the order of $$10^5$$ 10 5 /sec - $$10^6$$ 10 6 /sec) are challenging to recreate in the laboratory. To address this problem, several researchers have recently proposed inverse approaches where a combination of experiments and analytical models are used to predict the Johnson-Cook parameters. The errors between the measured cutting forces, chip thicknesses and temperatures and those predicted by analytical models are minimized and the parameters are determined. In this work, it is shown that only two of the five Johnson-Cook parameters can be determined uniquely using inverse approaches. Two different algorithms, namely, Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimization (AMPGO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are used for this purpose. The extended Oxley’s model is used as the analytical tool for optimization. For determining a parameter’s value, a large range for each parameter is provided as an input to the algorithms. The algorithms converge to several different sets of values for the five Johnson-Cook parameters when all the five parameters are considered as unknown in the optimization algorithm. All of these sets, however, yield the same chip shape and cutting forces in FEM simulations. Further analyses show that only the strain-rate and thermal softening parameters can be determined uniquely and the three parameters present in the strain-hardening term of the Johnson-Cook model cannot be determined uniquely using the inverse method. A combined experimental and numerical approach is proposed to eliminate this determine all parameters uniquely.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Component pose reconstruction using a single robotic total station for panelized building envelopes

The construction industry can benefit greatly from increased automation in construction processes in terms of precision, time, and labor costs. This is especially true for prefabricated construction for either new buildings or envelope retrofits. Here, prefabricated components are manufactured offsite according to design specifications and installed onsite. Accurate information on the component’s position and orientation (pose) is needed to achieve this. A tool named “Real-Time Evaluator” (RTE), designed to autonomously track prefabricated components as they are being installed and provide real-time installation instructions, is currently under development using a single robotic total station. This is challenging since at least three points are needed to determine the pose of an object in space. To achieve this goal with a single robotic total station, two key algorithms were developed: the “resection” algorithm aligns the digital twin with the physical twin regardless of the location of the total station, and the “transformation” algorithm gives instructions of translations and rotations to installers to achieve the desired installation pose. The algorithms were evaluated experimentally on a lab-scale demonstration. Results show that the resection algorithm achieved an average error of < 3.1 mm, while the transformation algorithm predicted the rotation angle along a single axis with an error of < 0.5◦.

Tang, Mengjia↗

Simple Autoignition Model for the Derived Cetane Number of Oxygenated Compounds and Fuel Blends

A four-step autoignition model was used to derive an expression for the ignition delay and derived cetane number (DCN) measured by ignition quality testers (IQT) for oxygenated compounds and blends as a function of each compound’s global initiation and net chain branching rate constants. Expressions for these values were determined assuming they could be related to the functional groups present in a compound. Measurements for 124 compounds and 94 binary and ternary blends, gathered from the literature and performed at UW-Madison, were used to obtain the dependence of the measured ignition delay on each functional group. The new model was able to describe the ignition behavior of both the compounds and blends, with an average DCN error of 5.0 (22%) and 3.5 (15%), respectively. Additionally, the blend model was transformed into a mixing rule by incorporating existing IQT ignition delay data for each compound. Use of the mixing rule was found to offer improvements over the full prediction, with an average DCN error of 3.2 (14%).

Witkowski, Dustin↗

Simple Autoignition Model for the Derived Cetane Number of Oxygenated Compounds and Fuel Blends

A simple four-step autoignition model was used to derive an expression for the ignition delay and derived cetane number (DCN) measured by ignition quality testers (IQT) for oxygenated compounds and blends as a function of each compound’s global initiation and net chain branching rate constants. Expressions for these values were determined assuming they could be related to the functional groups present in a given compound. Measurements for 124 compounds and 94 binary and ternary blends, gathered from the literature and performed at UW-Madison, were used to obtain the explicit dependence of the measured ignition delay on each functional group. The new model was able to successfully describe the ignition behavior of both the compounds and blends, with an average DCN error of 5.0 (22%) and 3.5 (15%), respectively. Additionally, the blend model could naturally be modified into a mixing rule by incorporating existing IQT ignition delay data for each compound. Use of the mixing rule was found to offer improvements over the full prediction, with an average DCN error of 3.2 (14%).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption rate for super-Gaussian electron distribution functions including plasma screening

Here we provide analytic expressions for the effective Coulomb logarithm for inverse bremsstrahlung absorption which predict significant corrections to the Langdon effect and overall absorption rate compared to previous estimates. The calculation of the collisional absorption rate of laser energy in a plasma by the inverse bremsstrahlung mechanism usually makes the approximation of a constant Coulomb logarithm. We dispense with this approximation and instead take into account the velocity dependence of the Coulomb logarithm, leading to a more accurate expression for the absorption rate valid in both classical and quantum conditions. In contrast to previous work, the laser intensity enters into the Coulomb logarithm. In most laser-plasma interactions the electron distribution function is super-Gaussian [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)], and we find the absorption rate under these conditions is increased by as much as ≈ 30% compared to previous estimates at low density. In many cases of interest the correction to Langdon's predicted reduction in absorption is large; for example at Z = 6 and Te = 400 eV the Langdon prediction for the absorption is in error by a factor of ≈ 2. However, we also account for the additional effect of plasma screening, which predicts a reduction in absorption by a similar amount (up to ≈ 30%). These two effects compete to determine the overall absorption, which may be increased or decreased, depending on the conditions. The corrections can be incorporated into radiation-hydrodynamics simulation codes by replacing the familiar Coulomb logarithm with an analytic expression which depends on the super-Gaussian order “M” and the screening length.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling receptor flexibility in the structure-based design of KRAS G12C inhibitors

KRAS has long been referred to as an ‘undruggable’ target due to its high affinity for its cognate ligands (GDP and GTP) and its lack of readily exploited allosteric binding pockets. Recent progress in the development of covalent inhibitors of KRAS G12C has revealed that occupancy of an allosteric binding site located between the α3-helix and switch-II loop of KRAS G12C —sometimes referred to as the ‘switch-II pocket’—holds great potential in the design of direct inhibitors of KRAS G12C . In studying diverse switch-II pocket binders during the development of sotorasib (AMG 510), the first FDA-approved inhibitor of KRAS G12C , we found the dramatic conformational flexibility of the switch-II pocket posing significant challenges toward the structure-based design of inhibitors. Here, we present our computational approaches for dealing with receptor flexibility in the prediction of ligand binding pose and binding affinity. For binding pose prediction, we modified the covalent docking program CovDock to allow for protein conformational mobility. This new docking approach, termed as FlexCovDock, improves success rates from 55 to 89% for binding pose prediction on a dataset of 10 cross-docking cases and has been prospectively validated across diverse ligand chemotypes. For binding affinity prediction, we found standard free energy perturbation (FEP) methods could not adequately handle the significant conformational change of the switch-II loop. We developed a new computational strategy to accelerate conformational transitions through the use of targeted protein mutations. Using this methodology, the mean unsigned error (MUE) of binding affinity prediction were reduced from 1.44 to 0.89 kcal/mol on a set of 14 compounds. These approaches were of significant use in facilitating the structure-based design of KRAS G12C inhibitors and are anticipated to be of further use in the design of covalent (and noncovalent) inhibitors of other conformationally labile protein targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗