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NASA NTRS2004

Evidence for Differential Comminution/Aeolian Sorting and Chemical Weathering of Martian Soils Preserved in Mars Meteorite EET79001

Impact-melt glasses containing Martian atmospheric gases in Mars meteorite EET79001 are formed from Martian soil fines that had undergone meteoroid-comminution and aeolian sorting accompanied by chemical weathering near Mars surface. Using SiO2 and SO3 as proxy for silicates and salts respectively in Mars soils, we find that SiO2 and SO3 correlate negatively with FeO and MgO and positively with Al2O3 and CaO in these glasses, indicating that the mafic and felsic components are depleted and enriched relative to the bulk host (Lith A/B) respectively as in the case of Moon soils. Though the overall pattern of mineral fractionation is similar between the soil fines on Mars and Moon, the magnitudes of the enrichments/depletions differ between these sample-suites because of pervasive aeolian activity on Mars. In addition to this mechanical processing, the Martian soil fines, prior to impact-melting, have undergone acid-sulfate dissolution under oxidizing/reducing conditions. The S03 content in EET79001,507 (Lith B) glass is approx.18% compared to < 2% in EET79001, 506 (Lith A). SiO2 and SO3 negatively correlate with each other in ,507 glasses similar to Pathfinder soils. The positive correlation found between FeO and SO3 in ,507 glasses as well as Pathfinder rocks and soils is consistent with the deposition of ferric-hydroxysulfate on regolith grains in an oxidizing environment. As in the case of Pathfinder soils, the Al 2O3 vs SiO2 positive correlation and FeO VS S102 negative correlation observed in ,507 glasses indicate that SiO2 from the regolith is mobilized as soluble silicic acid at low pH. The large off-set in the end-member FeO abundance ( SO3=0) between Pathfinder soil-free rock and sulfur-free rock in ,507 glass precursors suggests that the soils comprising the ,507 glasses contain much larger proportion of fine-grained Martian soil fraction that registers strong mafic depletion relative to Lith B. This inference is strongly supported by the Al2O3 - SO3 negative correlation observed in both ,507 glasses and pathfinder soils. Furthermore, the flat MgO-SO3 correlation observed in the case of ,507 glasses shows that the solubilized MgSO4 is mobilized by the aqueous solutions leaving behind the rock-residue with approx.2-3% MgO. This value is similar to the approx.2% MgO found for the soil-free rock at the Pathfinder site. The EET79001 ,506 glasses, in contrast, show that Al2O3 and CaO positively correlate with SO3 indicating that Al is precipitated as amorphous hydroxysulfate at relatively high pH. The FeO - SO3 negative correlation observed in ,506 glasses yields an end-member FeO abundance of approx.21% for the sulfur-free rock, which is consistent with the 22% FeO deduced for the Viking soil-free rock. Further, the FeO and MgO negative correlation with S03 observed in ,506 glasses indicates that the divalent Fe and Mg released from ferromagnesian minerals by acid sulfate dissolution are mobilized away from the reaction sites as soluble sulfates under reducing environment. A similar negative correlation between FeO and SO3 and a positive correlation between Al2O3 and SO3 found in Viking soils suggest that they also had undergone acid-sulfate dissolution under relatively reducing conditions.

Rao, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SPLMA): Prospects to GOES-R GLM and CHUVA

This paper presents the characteristics and prospects of a Lightning Mapping Array to be deployed at the city of S o Paulo (SPLMA). This LMA network will provide CHUVA campaign with total lightning, lightning channel mapping and detailed information on the locations of cloud charge regions for the thunderstorms investigated during one of its IOP. The real-time availability of LMA observations will also contribute to and support improved weather situational awareness and mission execution. For GOES-R program it will form the basis of generating unique and valuable proxy data sets for both GLM and ABI sensors in support of several on-going research investigations

Albrecht, Rachel I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis of Historical Data - Part 1

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation (+4% annual growth), resulting in unreliable service and systemic delays. Estimates of the impact of delays and unreliable air transportation service on the economy range from $32B to $41B per year. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making with regards to: (1) geographic access, (2) economic access, and (3) airline finances. This analysis evaluated markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size, airfares, and profit from 2005-2009. During this period, airlines experienced changes in costs of operation (due to fluctuations in hedged fuel prices), changes in travel demand (due to changes in the economy), and changes in infrastructure capacity (due to the capacity limits at EWR, JFK, and LGA). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of capacity limits at airports, as well as the effect of increased costs of operation (i.e. hedged fuel prices). The increases in costs of operation serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed.

Donohue, George↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗
NASA NTRS2010

Trend Analysis and Detection of Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation

Increases in the circulation of the stratosphere appear to be a robust result of climate change in chemistry-climate models over decadal time scales. To date observations have yet to show a significant change in this circulation. It is important for the design of future observational missions to identify suitable atmospheric constituents and to determine the accuracy and length of record needed to identify a significant trend that can be attributed to circulation change. First, we determine what atmospheric variables can be used as proxies for stratospheric circulation changes. A few examples are changes in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, phase lag of the water vapor tape recorder, CO2, and SF6. Then, using both the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) and observations from satellites and balloon soundings, we calculate the number of years needed to detect a significant trend, taking into account observational uncertainty. Model simulations will be evaluated to see how well they represent observed variability. In addition, the impacts of autocorrelation among the output or data and gaps in the observational record will be discussed.

Oman, Luke↗
NASA NTRS2010

Measuring and Modeling Solar Flares with SDO EVE

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) currently provides estimations of the solar Vacuum Ultra-Violet (VUV; 0.1-190 nm) irradiance from 1947 to present at 1 nm bins and 60 second temporal resolution. The accuracy of FISM is limited to 1nm because the TIMED SEE Level 3 and Level 3A measurement, for which the FISM relationships were based on, were at Inm. With the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in Feb 2010, the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will provide more accurate, increased spectral resolution (0.1 nm) measurements from 6 nm to 106 nm every 10-seconds and almost 100% duty cycle. EVE also observes additional broadband measurements for 0.1-7 nm, some EUV bands from 16 nm to 40 nm, and Hydrogen Lyman alpha at 121.6 nm. Along with the better spectral resolution of EVE leading to similar spectral resolution improvements in FISM, other significant improvements provide by SDO/EVE measurements will be multi-thermal gradual phase decay, impulsive phase center-to-limb variation characterization, non-flare sub-daily variations, and multi-thermal proxies. SDO/EVE observations of various solar flares with different characteristics will be presented, with the discussion theme focused on how EVE observations will help improve the accuracy of the FISM in the future. The final topic will present the updated FISM website that now has easier access to the FISM results and produce real-time updates that are useful for Space Weather studies.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of TRMM-LIS Lightning and Related Microphysics Using a Cell-Scale Database

Previous studies of tropical lightning activity using Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data performed analyses of lightning behavior over mesoscale "feature" scales or over uniform grids. In order to study lightning and the governing ice microphysics intrinsic to thunderstorms at a more process-specific scale (i.e., the scale over which electrification processes and lightning occur in a "unit" thunderstorm), a new convective cell-scale database was developed by analyzing and refining the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database and retaining precipitation data parameters computed from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), microwave imager (TMI) and LIS instruments. The resulting data base was to conduct a limited four-year study of tropical continental convection occurring over the Amazon Basin, Congo, Maritime Continent and the western Pacific Ocean. The analysis reveals expected strong correlations between lightning flash counts per cell and ice proxies, such as ice water path, minimum and average 85GHz brightness temperatures, and 18dBz echo top heights above the freezing level in all regimes, as well as regime-specific relationships between lighting flash counts and PR-derived surface rainfall rates. Additionally, radar CFADs were used to partition the 3D structure of cells in each regime at different flash counts. The resulting cell-scale analyses are compared to previous mesoscale feature and gridded studies wherever possible.

Leroy, Anita↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Unique OMI HCHO/NO2 Feature During the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics: Implications for Ozone Production Sensitivity

In preparation of the Beijing Summer Olympic and Paralympics Games, strict controls were imposed between July and September 2008 on motor vehicle traffic and industrial emissions to improve air quality for the competitors. We assessed chemical sensitivity of ozone production to these controls using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) column measurements of formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), where their ratio serves as a proxy for the sensitivity. During the emission controls, HCHO/NO2 increased and indicated a NOx-limited regime, in contrast to the same period in the preceding three years when the ratio indicates volatile organic carbon (VOC)-limited and mixed NOx-VOC-limited regimes. After the emission controls were lifted, observed NO2 and HCHO/NO2 returned to their previous values. The 2005-2008 OMI record shows that this transition in regimes was unique as ozone production in Beijing was rarely NOx-limited. OMI measured summertime increases in HCHO of around 13% in 2008 compared to prior years, the same time period during which MODIS vegetation indices increased. The OMI HCHO increase may be due to higher biogenic emissions of HCHO precursors, associated with Beijing's greening initiative for the Olympics. However, NO2 and HCHO were also found to be well-correlated during the summer months. This indicates an anthropogenic VOC contribution from vehicle emissions to OMI HCHO and is a plausible explanation for the relative HCHO minimum observed in August 2008, concurrent with a minimum in traffic emissions. We calculated positive trends in 2005-2008 OMI HCHO and NO2 of about +1 x 10(exp 14) Molec/ square M-2 and +3 x 10(exp 13) molec CM-2 per month, respectively. The positive trend in NO2 may be an indicator of increasing vehicular traffic since 2005, while the positive trend in HCHO may be due to a combined increase in anthropogenic and biogenic emissions since 2005.

Witte, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Transfer of Satellite Rainfall Uncertainty from Gauged to Ungauged Regions at Regional and Seasonal Timescales

Hydrologists and other users need to know the uncertainty of the satellite rainfall data sets across the range of time/space scales over the whole domain of the data set. Here, uncertainty' refers to the general concept of the deviation' of an estimate from the reference (or ground truth) where the deviation may be defined in multiple ways. This uncertainty information can provide insight to the user on the realistic limits of utility, such as hydrologic predictability, that can be achieved with these satellite rainfall data sets. However, satellite rainfall uncertainty estimation requires ground validation (GV) precipitation data. On the other hand, satellite data will be most useful over regions that lack GV data, for example developing countries. This paper addresses the open issues for developing an appropriate uncertainty transfer scheme that can routinely estimate various uncertainty metrics across the globe by leveraging a combination of spatially-dense GV data and temporally sparse surrogate (or proxy) GV data, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products over the US spanning a record of 6 years are used as a representative example of satellite rainfall. It is shown that there exists a quantifiable spatial structure in the uncertainty of satellite data for spatial interpolation. Probabilistic analysis of sampling offered by the existing constellation of passive microwave sensors indicate that transfer of uncertainty for hydrologic applications may be effective at daily time scales or higher during the GPM era. Finally, a commonly used spatial interpolation technique (kriging), that leverages the spatial correlation of estimation uncertainty, is assessed at climatologic, seasonal, monthly and weekly timescales. It is found that the effectiveness of kriging is sensitive to the type of uncertainty metric, time scale of transfer and the density of GV data within the transfer domain. Transfer accuracy is lowest at weekly timescales with the error doubling from monthly to weekly.However, at very low GV data density (<20% of the domain), the transfer accuracy is too low to show any distinction as a function of the timescale of transfer.

Tang, Ling↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Satellite Data for Seagrass Health Modeling and Monitoring

Time series derived information for coastal waters will be used to provide input data for the Fong and Harwell model. The current MODIS land mask limits where the model can be applied; this project will: a) Apply MODIS data with resolution higher than the standard products (250-m vs. 1-km). b) Seek to refine the land mask. c) Explore nearby areas to use as proxies for time series directly over the beds. Novel processing approaches will be leveraged from other NASA projects and customized as inputs for seagrass productivity modeling

Spiering, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Dst Index in the 2008 GEM Modeling Challenge - Model Performance for Moderate and Strong Magnetic Storms

The GEM 2008 modeling challenge efforts are expanding beyond comparing in-situ measurements in the magnetosphere and ionosphere to include the computation of indices to be compared. The Dst index measures the largest deviations of the horizontal magnetic field at 4 equatorial magnetometers from the quiet-time background field and is commonly used to track the strength of the magnetic disturbance of the magnetosphere during storms. Models can calculate a proxy Dst index in various ways, including using the Dessler-Parker Sckopke relation and the energy of the ring current and Biot-Savart integration of electric currents in the magnetosphere. The GEM modeling challenge investigates 4 space weather events and we compare models available at CCMC against each other and the observed values of Ost. Models used include SWMF/BATSRUS, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS (3D magnetosphere MHD models), Fok-RC, CRCM, RAM-SCB (kinetic drift models of the ring current), WINDMI (magnetosphere-ionosphere electric circuit model), and predictions based on an impulse response function (IRF) model and analytic coupling functions with inputs of solar wind data. In addition to the analysis of model-observation comparisons we look at the way Dst is computed in global magnetosphere models. The default value of Dst computed by the SWMF model is for Bz the Earth's center. In addition to this, we present results obtained at different locations on the Earth's surface. We choose equatorial locations at local noon, dusk (18:00 hours), midnight and dawn (6:00 hours). The different virtual observatory locations reveal the variation around the earth-centered Dst value resulting from the distribution of electric currents in the magnetosphere during different phases of a storm.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗
NASA NTRS2011

The GOES-R Series Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which will have just completed Critical Design Review and move forward into the construction phase of instrument development. The GLM will operate continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (an engineering development unit and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional ground-based lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms, test data sets, and applications, as well as improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this presentation we review the planned implementation of the instrument and suite of operational algorithms

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗
NASA NTRS2011

delta C-13 Analysis of Mars Analog Carbonates Using Evolved Gas Cavity - Ringdown Spectrometry on the 2010 Arctic Mars Analog Svalbard Expedition (AMASE)

The 2010 Arctic Mars Analog Svalbard Expedition (AMASE) investigated two distinct geologic settings on Svalbard, using instrumentation and techniques in development for future Mars missions, such as the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), ExoMars, and Mars Sample Return (MSR). The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite, which will fly on MSL, was developed at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), together with several partners. SAM consists of a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS), a gas chromatograph CGC), and a tunable laser spectrometer (TLS), which all analyze gases created by evolved gas analysis (EGA). The two sites studied represent "biotic" and "abiotic" analogs; the "biotic" site being the Knorringfjell fossil methane seep, and the "abiotic" site being the basaltic Sigurdfjell vent complex. The data presented here represent experiments to measure the carbon isotopic composition of carbonates from these two analogs using evolved gas analysis coupled with a commercial cavity ringdown CO2 isotopic analyzer (Picarro) as a proxy for the TLS on SAM.

Stern, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sources of Sodium in the Lunar Exosphere: Modeling Using Ground-Based Observations of Sodium Emission and Spacecraft Data of the Plasma

Observations of the equatorial lunar sodium emission are examined to quantify the effect of precipitating ions on source rates for the Moon's exospheric volatile species. Using a model of exospheric sodium transport under lunar gravity forces, the measured emission intensity is normalized to a constant lunar phase angle to minimize the effect of different viewing geometries. Daily averages of the solar Lyman alpha flux and ion flux are used as the input variables for photon-stimulated desorption (PSD) and ion sputtering, respectively, while impact vaporization due to the micrometeoritic influx is assumed constant. Additionally, a proxy term proportional to both the Lyman alpha and to the ion flux is introduced to assess the importance of ion-enhanced diffusion and/or chemical sputtering. The combination of particle transport and constrained regression models demonstrates that, assuming sputtering yields that are typical of protons incident on lunar soils, the primary effect of ion impact on the surface of the Moon is not direct sputtering but rather an enhancement of the PSD efficiency. It is inferred that the ion-induced effects must double the PSD efficiency for flux typical of the solar wind at 1 AU. The enhancement in relative efficiency of PSD due to the bombardment of the lunar surface by the plasma sheet ions during passages through the Earth's magnetotail is shown to be approximately two times higher than when it is due to solar wind ions. This leads to the conclusion that the priming of the surface is more efficiently carried out by the energetic plasma sheet ions.

Sarantos, Menelaos↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Combined Observational and Modeling Approach to Study Modern Dust Transport from the Patagonia Desert to East Antarctica

The understanding of present atmospheric transport processes from Southern Hemisphere (SH) landmasses to Antarctica can improve the interpretation of stratigraphic data in Antarctic ice cores. In addition, long range transport can deliver key nutrients normally not available to marine ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and may trigger or enhance primary productivity. However, there is a dearth of observational based studies of dust transport in the SH. This work aims to improve current understanding of dust transport in the SH by showing a characterization of two dust events originating in the Patagonia desert (south end of South America). The approach is based on a combined and complementary use of satellite retrievals (detectors MISR, MODIS, GLAS ,POLDER, OMI,), transport model simulation (HYSPLIT) and surface observations near the sources and aerosol measurements in Antarctica (Neumayer and Concordia sites). Satellite imagery and visibility observations confirm dust emission in a stretch of dry lakes along the coast of the Tierra del Fuego (TdF) island (approx.54deg S) and from the shores of the Colihue Huapi lake in Central Patagonia (approx.46deg S) in February 2005. Model simulations initialized by these observations reproduce the timing of an observed increase in dust concentration at the Concordia Station and some of the observed increases in atmospheric aerosol absorption (here used as a dust proxy) in the Neumayer station. The TdF sources were the largest contributors of dust at both sites. The transit times from TdF to the Neumayer and Concordia sites are 6-7 and 9-10 days respectively. Lidar observations and model outputs coincide in placing most of the dust cloud in the boundary layer and suggest significant de- position over the ocean immediately downwind. Boundary layer dust was detected as far as 1800 km from the source and approx.800 km north of the South Georgia Island over the central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. Although the analysis suggests the presence of dust at approx.1500 km SW of South Africa five days after, the limited capabilities of existing satellite platforms to differentiate between aerosol types do not permit a definitive conclusion. In addition, the model simulations show dust lifting to the free troposphere as it travels south but it could not be confirmed by the satellite observations due to cloudiness. This work demonstrates that complementary information from existing transport models, satellite and surface data can yield a consistent picture of the dust transport from the Patagonia desert to Antarctica. It also illustrates the limitation of using any of these approaches individually to characterize the transport of dust in a heavily cloudy area.

Gasso, S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2010

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗