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DOE OSTI2020

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a -11% to +40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from -45 to -2 kcal person -1 day -1 , leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fermion mass, axion dark matter, and leptogenesis in SO(10) GUT

SO(10) grand unified theory with minimum parameters in the Yukawa sector employs the Peccei-Quinn symmetry that solves the strong C P problem. Such an economical Yukawa sector is highly appealing and has been extensively studied in the literature. However, when the running of the renormalization group equations of the Yukawa couplings are considered, this scenario shows some tension with the observed fermion masses and mixing. In this work, we propose an extension of the minimal framework that utilizes lower dimensional representations and alleviates this tension by introducing only a few new parameters. The proposed model consists of a fermion in the fundamental and a scalar in the spinorial representations. While the latter is needed to implement the Peccei-Quinn symmetry successfully, the presence of both is essential in obtaining an excellent fit to the fermion mass spectrum. In our model, axions serve the role of dark matter, and the out-of-equilibrium decays of the right-handed neutrinos successfully generate the matter-antimatter symmetry of the Universe. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning-Assisted Real-Time Forward Modeling of Electromagnetic Logging in Complex Formations

Higher dimensional (i.e., 2-D and 3-D) modeling is indispensable to correctly evaluate the responses of electromagnetic logging tools in complex formation environments. However, limited by the high computational cost of rigorous modeling such as finite difference method and the finite element method, the real-time applications in the well logging industry primarily rely on the 1-D forward solver, which would result in erroneous formation evaluation for complex scenarios. As a result, aiming at realizing fast modeling for electromagnetic logging tools in complex formations, this paper proposes a general framework assisted by deep neural networks (DNNs). The framework consists of three modules: earth model classification, parameter extraction, and surrogate construction. Separate DNNs are trained and tested for different modules. The accuracy and efficiency of the DNN assisted fast modeling are validated by several experiments. Here, this study finds that the fast modeling assisted by DNNs is able to calculate the tool responses and reconstruct the subsurface formations in real-time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

HEPfit: a code for the combination of indirect and direct constraints on high energy physics models

HEPfit is a flexible open-source tool which, given the Standard Model or any of its extensions, allows to (i) fit the model parameters to a given set of experimental observables; (ii) obtain predictions for observables. HEPfit can be used either in Monte Carlo mode, to perform a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of a given model, or as a library, to obtain predictions of observables for a given point in the parameter space of the model, allowing HEPfit to be used in any statistical framework. In the present version, around a thousand observables have been implemented in the Standard Model and in several new physics scenarios. In this paper, we describe the general structure of the code as well as models and observables implemented in the current release.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap on Data and Analysis for Distribution System Planning: Information That Utilities Can Provide Regulators, State Energy Offices and Other Stakeholders

Electric utilities conduct planning annually to ensure their distribution system meets technical standards, policies, and regulations; addresses forecasted grid conditions; satisfies customer needs; and advances utility priorities. The plan identifies grid deficiencies, analyzes potential solutions, and prioritizes capital investments and other expenditures. About 20 U.S. states and jurisdictions require regulated utilities to file some type of distribution system plan with the public utility commission for review. Requirements for sharing distribution system data and analyses vary widely, from few specific requirements to a detailed list of information that must be provided. While utilities conduct extensive analysis to develop distribution system plans, in most jurisdictions regulators and stakeholders do not know what data are available and how the utility uses the data in planning and investing. This report aims to bridge the gap by increasing understanding of the types of data and analyses utilities employ to develop distribution system plans and how the information affects their decision-making. The report describes information that states and stakeholders can ask for related to 11 data categories: -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) -Scenario analysis -Worst-performing circuits -Asset management strategy -Hosting capacity analysis -Value of DERs -Grid needs assessment -Cost-effectiveness framework for investments -Distribution system investment strategy and implementation -Geotargeted programs -Non-wires alternatives procurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Call for Participation: Collaborative Benchmarking of Functional-Structural Root Architecture Models. The Case of Root Water Uptake

Three-dimensional models of root growth, architecture and function are becoming important tools that aid the design of agricultural management schemes and the selection of beneficial root traits. However, while benchmarking is common in many disciplines that use numerical models, such as natural and engineering sciences, functional-structural root architecture models have never been systematically compared. The following reasons might induce disagreement between the simulation results of different models: different representation of root growth, sink term of root water and solute uptake and representation of the rhizosphere. Presently, the extent of discrepancies is unknown, and a framework for quantitatively comparing functional-structural root architecture models is required. We propose, in a first step, to define benchmarking scenarios that test individual components of complex models: root architecture, water flow in soil and water flow in roots. While the latter two will focus mainly on comparing numerical aspects, the root architectural models have to be compared at a conceptual level as they generally differ in process representation. Therefore, defining common inputs that allow recreating reference root systems in all models will be a key challenge. In a second step, benchmarking scenarios for the coupled problems are defined. We expect that the results of step 1 will enable us to better interpret differences found in step 2. This benchmarking will result in a better understanding of the different models and contribute toward improving them. Improved models will allow us to simulate various scenarios with greater confidence and avoid bugs, numerical errors or conceptual misunderstandings. This work will set a standard for future model development.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

A system of shared autonomous vehicles for Chicago: Understanding the effects of geofencing the service

With autonomous vehicles (AVs) still in the testing phase, researchers and planners must resort to simulation techniques to explore possible futures regarding shared and automated mobility. An agent-based discrete-event transport simulator, POLARIS, is used in this study to simulate travel in the 20-county Chicago region with a shared AV (SAV) mobility option. Using this framework, the effect of an SAV fleet on system performance when constrained to serve within geofences is studied under four distinct scenarios: service restricted to the city, to the city plus suburban core, to the core plus exurban areas, and to the entire region — along with the choice of dynamic ridesharing (DRS) versus solo travel in an SAV. Results indicate that service areas need a balanced mix of trip generators and attractors, and an SAV fleet’s empty VMT (eVMT) can be noticeably reduced through suitable geofencing and DRS. Geofences can also help lower response times, reduce systemwide VMT across all modes, and ensure uniform access to SAVs. DRS is most useful in lowering VMT and %eVMT that arises from sprawled land development, but with insufficient demand to share rides, savings from the use of geofences is higher. Geofences targeting neighborhoods with high trip density bring about low response times and %eVMT, but fleet sizes in these regions need to be designed for uniformly low response times throughout a large region, as opposed to maximizing vehicle use in a 24-hour day.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have ranked as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study we apply a fixed-constraint storyline approach that holds storm tracks and initial conditions constant to probe future TC intensity in the North Atlantic Basin. First, we simulate 618 historical TC events using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep-learning intensity model. Next, we apply warming signals derived from eight CMIP6 climate scenarios and rerun each event to explore how intensities respond across scenarios. Finally, we develop an interactive dashboard that allows users to explore individual storm simulations and the scenario-modified environmental drivers. Together, this dataset and tool provide a clear, illustrative way to investigate how TC intensity responds to changes in air-sea state.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

1.4.2.402 - Water Risk for the Bulk Power System: Asset to Grid Impacts

Utilities and stakeholders need a standardized mechanism for evaluating how future climate and hydrologic conditions translate to water-related risks for power grid assets and systems to support planning decisions. Yet, no such mechanism exists. To address this need, our goals are to: (1) Develop and execute a state-of-the-art multi-model framework to assess future climate-water impacts and risks to the grid, including sensitivities to varying hydrologic drivers and infrastructure scenarios. (2) Create a standardized interactive visualization platform, using data from the climate-water risk assessments, that enables stakeholders to evaluate climate-water impacts, risks, and adaptation measures for power systems.

bulk power system↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Protection Studies of Fast Instability-Driven Beam Losses in the EIC Electron Storage Ring

Fast transverse beam instabilities represent one of the most challenging protection scenarios for the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) electron storage ring (ESR). Coherent betatron oscillations driven by collective effects can grow rapidly and lead to substantial beam losses within only a few tens of turns, posing a threat to collimators, superconducting (SC) magnets, cryogenic systems, and detector components. A dedicated simulation framework based on distributed transverse excitations was developed to evaluate instability-driven beam losses in the ESR. A conservative instability rise time on the order of 10 turns was used to define a bounding protection scenario. Simulations show that the original two-collimator configuration is insufficient to localize losses under all operating conditions, whereas an optimized four-collimator configuration reduces loss leakage into protected regions by more than two orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, the most severe instability scenarios produce catastrophic beam impacts, with nearly half of the stored beam being intercepted by the collimators within a single turn, exceeding the preliminary estimated survivability limits of the baseline collimator design. The results demonstrate that collimation alone is insufficient to guarantee safe ESR operation and must be complemented by a fast machine-protection system. Dedicated turn-by-turn beam-position monitors and fast beam-loss monitors provide sufficient advance warning to detect instability growth and initiate a beam abort before equipment-damaging loss levels are reached. These findings establish quantitative requirements for the ESR machine-protection architecture and support the implementation of a multilayer protection strategy for both accelerator and detector systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures: Guidance Designed for Federal Agencies (hereafter referred to as “this report”) provides a technical framework for federal agencies to conduct a life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for water efficiency projects in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 8253. This report leverages insights from the 2023 report, PNNL-34006, Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition (Unger et al. 2023). The primary objective of this report is to provide a framework to assist federal agencies with evaluating the full economic impact of water efficiency projects by assessing both initial investments and long-term operational benefits. An LCCA can provide a comprehensive view of all costs associated with a water efficiency project, including initial investment, ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M), and eventual disposal or replacement, ensuring the most cost-effective solution is selected. The LCCA methodology outlined in this report enables users to compare base case scenarios with potential alternatives using a standardized present value approach. It incorporates key cost components such as energy, water and wastewater, installation, O&M, and equipment replacement. Additionally, the framework introduces relevant evaluation metrics, such as the net savings and the savings-to-investment ratio, to ensure that water efficiency measures are economically justified over the lifespan of the project. To support practical application, this report also describes various water efficiency strategies that may be analyzed using an LCCA, including plumbing retrofits, irrigation upgrades, alternative water use, and cooling system improvements. By applying this framework, federal agencies can ensure compliance with regulatory mandates while maximizing the return on investment and contributing to resilient water management practices. The information provided in this report is aligned with the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) life-cycle cost (LCC) methodology, as conveyed in National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Handbook 135 (Kneifel and Webb 2022). This report is intended to provide relatively high-level guidance, acting as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, that resource.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

The catalog-to-cosmology framework for weak lensing and galaxy clustering for LSST

We present TXPipe, a modular, automated and reproducible pipeline for ingesting catalog data and performing all the calculations required to obtain quality-assured two-point measurements of lensing and clustering, and their covariances, with the metadata necessary for parameter estimation. The pipeline is developed within the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), and designed for cosmology analyses using LSST data. In this paper, we present the pipeline for the so-called 3x2pt analysis -- a combination of three two-point functions that measure the auto- and cross-correlation between galaxy density and shapes. We perform the analysis both in real and harmonic space using TXPipe and other LSST-DESC tools. We validate the pipeline using Gaussian simulations and show that it accurately measures data vectors and recovers the input cosmology to the accuracy level required for the first year of LSST data under this simplified scenario. We also apply the pipeline to a realistic mock galaxy sample extracted from the CosmoDC2 simulation suite (Korytov et al. 2019). TXPipe establishes a baseline framework that can be built upon as the LSST survey proceeds. Furthermore, the pipeline is designed to be easily extended to science probes beyond the 3x2pt analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗