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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Long-term Solar Irradiance Variability: 1984-1989 Observations

Long-term variability in the total solar irradiance has been observed in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitor measurements. The monitors have been used to measure the irradiance from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 spacecraft platforms since October 25, 1984, January 23, 1985, and October 22, 1986, respectively. Before September 1986, the ERBS irradiance values were found to be decreasing -0.03 percent per year. This period was marked by decreasing solar magnetic activity. Between September 1986 and mid-1989, the irradiance values increased approximately 0.1 percent. The latter period was marked by increasing solar activity which was associated with the initiations of the sunspot cycle number 22 and of a new 22-year Hale solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, long-term solar-irradiance variability appears to be correlated directly with solar activity. The maximum smoothed sunspot number occurred during September 1989, according to the Sunspot Index Data Center. Therefore, the recent irradiance increasing trend should disappear during early 1990 and change into a decreasing trend if the observed irradiance variability is correlated more so with the 11-year sunspot cycle than the 22-year Hale cycle. The ERBE irradiance values are presented and compared with sunspot activity for the 1984 to 1989 period. The ERBE values are compared with those available from the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft experiments.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS1995

Magnetic observations during the recent declining phase of solar activity

Changes in the heliospheric magnetic field during the recent declining phase in solar activity are reviewed and compared with observations during past sunspot cycles. The study is based principally on data obtained by IMP-8 and Ulysses. The field magnitude is found to have increased during the declining phase until it reached a maximum value of 11.5nT in approximately 1991.5, approximately two years after sunspot maximum. The field of the sun's south pole became negative after a reversal in early 1990. The sector structure disappeared at Ulysses in April 1993 when the latitude of the spacecraft was -30 deg revealing a low inclination of the heliospheric current sheet. A large outburst of solar activity in March 1991 caused four Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and numerious shocks at the location of Ulysses. Following a delay of more than a year, a series of recurrent high speed streams and Corotating Interaction Regions commenced in July 1992 which were observed by IMP-8, Ulysses and Voyager 2. In all these respects, the behavior of the magnetic field mimics that seen in the two earlier sunspot cycles. The comprehensive data set suggests a correlation between the absolute value of B and sunspot number. The major solar cycle variations in the radial component (and magnitude) of the field have been successfully reproduced by a recent model consisting of a tilted solar dipole, whose strength and tilt undergo characteristic changes over the sunspot cycle, and the heliospheric current sheet. The large outbursts of activity in mid-1972, mid-1982 and the first quarter of 1991 may represent a characteristic last 'gasp' of solar activity before the sun evolves to a different state. The recurrent high speed streams in 1973, 1984 and 1992 accompany the developemnt of large asymetrical polar coronal holes and the growth in intensity of the polar cap fields. After they endure for about one year, the polar coronal holes recede and the high speed streams are replaced by weaker streams more characteristic of solar minimum.

Smith, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and Its Consequences

On the basis of the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number (R) through November 2006, cycle 23 has persisted for 126 mo, having had a minimum of 8.0 in May 1996, a peak of 120.8 in April 2000, and an ascent duration of 47 mo. In November 2006, the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number was 12.7, a value just outside the upper observed envelope of sunspot minimum values for the most recent cycles 16-23 (range 3.4-12.3), but within the 90-percent prediction interval (7.8 +/- 6.7). The first spotless day during the decline of cycle 23 occurred in January 2004, and the first occurrence of 10 or more and 20 or more spotless days was February 2006 and April 2007, respectively, inferring that sunspot minimum for cycle 24 is imminent. Through May 2007, 121 spotless days have accumulated. In terms of the weighted mean latitude (weighed by spot area) (LAT) and the highest observed latitude spot (HLS) in November 2006, 12-mo moving averages of these parameters measured 7.9 and 14.6 deg, respectively, these values being the lowest values yet observed during the decline of cycle 23 and being below corresponding mean values found for cycles 16-23. As yet, no high-latitude new-cycle spots have been seen nor has there been an upturn in LAT and HLS, these conditions having always preceded new cycle minimum by several months for past cycles. Together, these findings suggest that cycle 24 s minimum amplitude still lies well beyond November 2006. This implies that cycle 23 s period either will lie in the period "gap" (127-134 mo), a first for a sunspot cycle, or it will be longer than 134 mo, thus making cycle 23 a long-period cycle (like cycle 20) and indicating that cycle 24 s minimum will occur after July 2007. Should cycle 23 prove to be a cycle of longer period, a consequence might be that the maximum amplitude for cycle 24 may be smaller than previously predicted.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Classification

A supervised learning task involves constructing a mapping from input data (normally described by several features) to the appropriate outputs. Within supervised learning, one type of task is a classification learning task, in which each output is one or more classes to which the input belongs. In supervised learning, a set of training examples---examples with known output values---is used by a learning algorithm to generate a model. This model is intended to approximate the mapping between the inputs and outputs. This model can be used to generate predicted outputs for inputs that have not been seen before. For example, we may have data consisting of observations of sunspots. In a classification learning task, our goal may be to learn to classify sunspots into one of several types. Each example may correspond to one candidate sunspot with various measurements or just an image. A learning algorithm would use the supplied examples to generate a model that approximates the mapping between each supplied set of measurements and the type of sunspot. This model can then be used to classify previously unseen sunspots based on the candidate's measurements. This chapter discusses methods to perform machine learning, with examples involving astronomy.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Puzzling Variation of Gamma Rays from the Sun over the Solar Cycle Revealed with Fermi-LAT

The steady-state gamma-ray emission from the Sun is thought to consist of two emission components due to interactions with Galactic cosmic rays: (1) a hadronic disk component, and (2) a leptonic extended component peaking at the solar edge and extending into the heliosphere. The flux of these components is expected to vary with the 11 yr solar cycle, being highest during solar minimum and lowest during solar maximum, as it varies with the cosmic-ray flux. No study has yet analyzed the flux variation of each component over solar cycles. In this work, we measure the temporal variations of the flux of each component over 15 yr of Fermi Large Area Telescope observations and compare them with the sunspot number and Galactic cosmic-ray flux from AMS-02 near Earth. We find that the flux variation of the disk anticorrelates with the sunspot number and correlates with cosmic-ray protons, as expected, confirming its emission mechanism. In contrast, the extended component exhibits a more complex variation: despite an initial anticorrelation with the sunspot number, we find neither anticorrelation with the sunspot number nor correlation with cosmic-ray electrons over the full 15 yr period. This most likely suggests that cosmic-ray transport and modulation in the inner heliosphere are unexpectedly complex and may differ for electrons and protons or, alternatively, that there is an additional, unknown component of gamma rays or cosmic rays. These findings impact space weather research and emphasize the need for close monitoring of Cycle 25 and the ongoing polarity reversal.

Acharyya, A. [Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (D↗
NASA NTRS1975

Long-term evolution of solar sector structure

The large-scale structure of the solar magnetic field during the past five sunspot cycles (representing by implication a much longer interval of time) has been investigated, using the polarity (toward or away from the Sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field as inferred from polar geomagnetic observations. The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has previously been shown to be closely related to the polarity (into or out of the Sun) of the large-scale solar magnetic field. It appears that a solar structure with four sectors per rotation persisted through the past five sunspot cycles with a synodic rotation period near 27.0 days, and a small relative westward drift during the first half of each sunspot cycle and a relative eastward drift during the second half of each cycle. Superimposed on this four-sector structure there is another structure with inward field polarity, a width in solar longitude of about 100 deg, and a synodic rotation period of about 28 to 29 days. This 28.5-day structure is usually most prominent during a few years near sunspot maximum. Some preliminary comparisons of these observed solar structures with theoretical considerations are given.

Svalgaard, L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comments on the course of solar activity during the declining phase of solar cycle 20 /1970-74/

Observational data on sunspots, the 2800-MHz flux, and calcium plages are interpreted which were obtained during the declining phase of solar cycle 20. It is shown that three pulses of activity occurred during this period and resulted in two conspicuous 'stillstands' in the smooth means of the sunspot, 2800-MHz, and plage data. The longitudes of centers of sunspot and flare activity are found to have clustered in identifiable zones or hemispheres for relatively long periods of time. The sun is seen to have had a relatively inactive hemisphere centered about zero deg longitude, and certain well defined coronal holes were apparently located near the middle of this hemisphere. The first sunspot groups of cycle 21 are observed to have formed in the longitude zones associated with relatively high levels of activity during cycle 20.

Dodson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Solar irradiance variations and solar activity

A mean value for the 1 AU total solar irradiance of 1368.2 W/sq m and a downward trend of 0.05% per year were derived from measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission during 1980. Distinct temporary solar irradiance decreases associated with solar activity maxima were observed with a series of nine dips from April to October recurring at fairly regular intervals averaging 24 days. The decreases correlate inversely with sunspot area, 2800-MHz flux, and Zurich sunspot number. Dominant periods common to the irradiance and sunspot area power spectra link the irradiance decreases to sunspot flux deficit in solar active regions. Evidence of significant total irradiance modulation by facular flux excess is cited. A persistent radiative cycle of active regions consistent with the ACRIM irradiance results and the morphology of solar active regions was found. The pattern of regularly recurrent active region maxima between April and October suggests an asymmetry in solar activity generation during this period.

Willson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Models and spectra of sunspots were studied, because they are important to energy balance and variability discussions. Sunspot observations in the ultraviolet region 140 to 168 nn was obtained by the NRL High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph. Extensive photometric observations of sunspot umbrae and prenumbrae in 10 chanels covering the wavelength region 387 to 3800 nm were made. Cool star opacities and model atmospheres were computed. The Sun is the first testcase, both to check the opacity calculations against the observed solar spectrum, and to check the purely theoretical model calculation against the observed solar energy distribution. Line lists were finally completed for all the molecules that are important in computing statistical opacities for energy balance and for radiative rate calculations in the Sun (except perhaps for sunspots). Because many of these bands are incompletely analyzed in the laboratory, the energy levels are not well enough known to predict wavelengths accurately for spectrum synthesis and for detailed comparison with the observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Temporal Variations of Solar UV Spectral Irradiance Caused by Solar Rotation and Active Region Evolution

Variations in the solar 100 to 400 nm UV spectral irradiance caused by solar rotation and active region evolution, are discussed as a function of UV wavelength, CMD dependence, and in relation to the temporal variations in the total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, sunspot number and Ca K plage data. Active region radiation at cm wavelengths includes a component proportional to the magnetic field. Active region evolution involves a more rapid growth, peak and decay of sunspots and their strong magnetic fields than the Ca K plages and their related UV enhancements. Major plages often last a rotation or more longer than the active region's sunspots. Large active regions, including those associated with major dips in the total solar irradiance, tend to produce the strongest peaks in 10.7 cm and sunspot numbers on their first rotation, while the Ca K plages and UV enhancements peak on the next rotation and decay more slowly on subsequent rotations. Differences in CMD dependencies cause temporal differences including the stronger presence of 13 day variations in the UV flux.

Donnelly, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Interpretation of vector magnetograph data including magneto-optic effects. I - Azimuth angle of the transverse field

In this paper, the presence of Faraday rotation in measurements of the orientation of a sunspot's transverse magnetic field is investigated. Using observations obtained with the Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) vector magnetograph, the derived vector magnetic field of a simple, symmetric sunspot is used to calculate the degree of Faraday rotation in the azimuth of the transverse field as a function of wavelength from analytical expressions for the Stokes parameters. These results are then compared with the observed rotation of the field's azimuth which is derived from observations at different wavelengths within the Fe I 5250 A spectral line. From these comparisons, it is found: the observed rotation of the azimuth is simulated to a reasonable degree by the theoretical formulations if the line-formation parameter is varied over the sunspot; these variations are substantiated by the line-intensity data; for the MSFC system, Faraday rotation can be neglected for field strengths less than 1800 G and field inclinations greater than 45 deg; to minimize the effects of Faraday rotation in sunspot umbrae, MSFC magnetograph measurements must be made in the far wings of the Zeeman-sensitive spectral line.

West, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

VLA observations of fine structures in a solar active region at 6 centimeter wavelength

A complex solar active region at 6 cm has been observed with the VLA. Radio images of the region have been constructed and compared with simultaneous optical data from the region. It is found that all radio sources are associated with either sunspots or regions of the corona where strong transverse magnetic fields are likely, that the transverse field sources are brighter than the sunspot sources, and that some of the sunspot sources have a polarized ring structure. The observations are interpreted in terms of thermal gyroresonance emission, with the radiation from the transverse field sources being at the third harmonic of the gyrofrequency and predominantly at the second harmonic from the sunspot sources.

Mcconnell, D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into 'ordinary' and 'anomalously large' events. Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. The sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. Also, a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum is found. There is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. It is also found that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Solar irradiance measurements - Minimum through maximum solar activity

The Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the NOAA-9 spacecraft solar monitors were used to measure the total solar irradiance during the period October 1984 to December 1989. Decreasing trends in the irradiance measurements were observed as sunspot activity decreased to minimum levels in 1986; after 1986, increasing trends were observed as sunspot activity increased. The magnitude of the irradiance variability was found to be approximately 0.1 percent between sunspot minimum and maximum (late 1989). When compared with the 1984 to 1989 indices of solar magnetic activity, the irradiance trends appear to be in phase with the 11-year sunspot cycle. Both irradiance series yielded 1,365/sq Wm as the mean value of the solar irradiance, normalized to the mean earth/sun distance. The monitors are electrical substitution, active-cavity radiometers with estimated measurement precisions and accuracies of less than 0.02 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Lee, R. B., III↗
NASA NTRS1992

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

The maximum amplitude for the next sunspot cycle is estimated on the basis of inferred statistical trends and associations from the last 12 cycles. Specific attention is given to the extrapolation of the inferred long-term upward trend against time of the maximum amplitude RM which is the maximum value of the smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle. Also examined in depth are the apparent inherent differences found in even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles. RM is plotted vs cycle number, and RM is plotted against RM for odd-following cycle pairs. RM values are shown to be greater than 110.6 for six of the last six sunspot cycles, and the trend suggests that cycle 23 should have RM of more than 150 particularly in light of the fact that the odd-following cycle is always larger than the even cycle. Evidence is shown to predict an RM of at least 176.4, making cycle 23 one of the largest of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The magnetic evolution of the activity complex AR 7260: A roadmap

The active region NOAA 7260 rotated onto the north solar hemisphere as a mature bipole: a dominant negative-polarity sunspot with trailing plage and scattered small spots in attendance. The dominant p spot itself had strong magnetic fields and covered almost 400 x 10(exp -6) of a solar hemisphere. For a period of seven days beginning 14 August, 1992 this active region displayed rapid and drastic evolution: no fewer than 50 magnetic bipoles emerged in the area trailing the large sunspot, increasing the region's magnetic flux by more than 10(exp 22) Mx. This new group of sunspots formed a complex Beta gamma delta configuration with two delta spots and a high degree of magnetic shear. This region was very well observed by Yohkoh and various ground-based instruments. It presented opportunities to study new emerging flux, flares, and also the decay of a large sunspot. For the benefit of later studies we present a description of the global characteristics of this active region, a detailed 'roadmap' of its evolution during disk passage including the development of the two delta regions. We compare proper motion trends and flaring activity to observations of other delta-spots reported in the literature. We also comment on the observed outflow of magnetic elements from the decaying p spot.

Leka, K. D.↗