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At least 415 records · Page 23

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate

Moist air is lighter than dry air at the same temperature, pressure, and volume because the molecular weight of water is less than that of dry air. We call this the vapor buoyancy effect. Although this effect is well documented, its impact on Earth’s climate has been overlooked. Here, we show that the lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate by increasing the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). In the tropical atmosphere, buoyancy is horizontally uniform. Then, the vapor buoyancy in the moist regions must be balanced by warmer temperatures in the dry regions of the tropical atmosphere. These higher temperatures increase tropical OLR. This radiative effect increases with warming, leading to a negative climate feedback. At a near present-day surface temperature, vapor buoyancy is responsible for a radiative effect of 1 W/m 2 and a negative climate feedback of about 0.15 W/m 2 per kelvin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of the Spectral Irradiance Data from the NSRDB

A recent effort by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has led to a new radiative transfer model, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), to efficiently compute spectral irradiances in the plane-of-array (POA). This model has been implemented in the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to provide photovoltaic (PV) resource in both narrowband and broadband wavelengths. This study conducts an evaluation of the spectral irradiances from the PV Resource dataset using surface-based observations at NREL’s Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) and University of Oregon (UO). The results demonstrate that the PV resource has a generally good agreement with the long-term observations in both clear-sky and cloudy-sky conditions. Further research is needed to reduce the overestimation of visible irradiances in clear sky conditions and underestimation of near-infrared irradiances in cloudy-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Testing- and Model- Based Optimization of Coal-fired Primary Heater Design for Indirect Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles (Final Scientific and Technical Report)

The overall objective of this project was to perform the R&D necessary to mitigate the risk associated with the design of a primary heat exchanger for a solid-fired combustion system coupled with an indirect-fired closed-loop Brayton Cycle utilizing supercritical CO 2 . The key technological hurdle was the coupling of a solid-fuel firing system with the primary heater, which poses a singular challenge, which is the management of burner performance and operational conditions in a way to manage heat exchanger tube metal temperatures and temperature ramp rates in the absence of fluid phase change on the inside of the tubes. We designed and built the first ever pseudo power system employing a simple recuperated supercritical CO 2 closed-loop Brayton Cycle coupled to a solid-fuel fired system. Advanced coupled CFD and process modeling were used to design the primary heat exchanger (PHX), which consisted of both radiative and convective sections, to limit tube metal temperatures resulting from the heat release profile of the solid fuel flame near the radiative tubes. The heat exchanger was designed to produce finished CO 2 temperatures of 600 °C a pressure of 20.7 MPa and CO 2 flow of 5.5 kg/s. The constructed PHX was capable of 1.2 MWth heat uptake. During design of the PHX, the modeling showed that most variables influencing flame shape (burner stoichiometric ratio and register velocities and swirl) were not suitable to manage heat flux to the metal surfaces. This is because they substantially increased adiabatic flame temperature through the influence of localized stoichiometric ratio. Excess air and firing rate were the two most powerful variables that could be used to control tube surface temperatures. The coupled system was operated for a total of 407 hours, with the longest continuous run of 248 hours. For 62% of the operational time, the unit was unmanned and in automatic control. The fuels used for the testing included natural gas, two Utah Bituminous coals, woody biomass, and bagasse. During the testing we were able to verify the 1.2 MWth heat uptake and we operated at a finished CO 2 temperature of 607 °C and a pressure of 20.3 MPa simultaneously. The real-time corrosion rate of the Super 304H tube CO 2 surface in the region of the radiative section of the PHX were measured, at an approximate temperature of 550 °C. The two key variables related to corrosion rate are the pressure and flow rate of the CO 2 . A technoeconomic analysis was performed at a scale of 120 MWE. The updated analysis showed that the efficiency of an sCO 2 power producing plant will be related to the pressure drop of the PHX.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice

The surface energy budget governs Arctic sea-ice growth/melt, yet observations are sparse, and reanalysis data sets suffer from systematic biases. Here, we train a neural network with observational data to bias-correct hourly ERA5 fluxes over Arctic ice-covered regions (≥70°N; sea-ice concentration >80%) for 1994–2024. Training data cover two full seasonal cycles and different sea-ice regimes. The neural network reduces RMSE for net shortwave radiation by ∼40%, downward longwave radiation by ∼16% and the total surface energy budget by ∼55%, eliminating the wintertime warm bias of ∼4 K in ERA5. Wintertime surface cooling is reduced by ∼50%, yielding thermodynamic ice-growth estimates of ∼80–120 cm, consistent with SMOS–CryoSat satellite thickness increases and in contrast to the 150–200 cm growth implied by ERA5. Our bias-corrected data capture the observed clear/cloudy states of the winter boundary layer and can be used to study Arctic climatology, evaluate climate models and drive sea-ice-ocean models.

Hossain, Akil [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar ↗

Sensitivity study on the fin effect of thermocouple mounted on the heated surface under film boiling condition

In the reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) scenario, right after the power burst with the occurrence of departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), the cladding temperature quickly reaches its maximum and is maintained in a steady film boiling regime. Then, under limited heat transfer performance of film boiling, the local cooling effect by the thermocouple wire may not be neglected. A computational model is developed to estimate the local cooling effect of the thermocouple wire mounted on the cladding surface under film boiling condition. The model predicts the temperature profile along the cladding surface as physically expected and is verified against the benchmark problem. Sensitivity studies reveal the significant effects of the thickness of vapor film layer and the diameter of thermocouple on the temperature drop near the thermocouple, for they increase the heat transfer area to the liquid water region. The impact of film boiling heat transfer coefficient, however, is not significant, as the primary heat transfer mechanism near the thermocouple is the heat conduction to the wire. Future study will include the contribution of radiative heat transfer between the cladding surface and the vapor film layer, as well as a transient power history which represents an actual RIA scenario.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Measurement and analysis of the Doppler broadened energy spectra of gamma radiation originating from the annihilation of positrons incident on clean and adsorbate-covered surfaces

We present measurements and theoretical modeling demonstrating the capability of coincidence Doppler broadened (CDB) annihilation gamma spectroscopy to provide element-specific information from the topmost atomic layer of surfaces. Our measurements show that the energy spectra of Doppler-shifted annihilation gamma photons emitted following the annihilation of positrons from the topmost atomic layers of clean and adsorbate covered surfaces of gold (Au), silver (Ag) and copper (Cu) differ significantly. The shape of the Doppler-broadened gamma spectrum, as analyzed using ratio curves, indicates that the elemental composition of the surface can still be identified despite contributions from positronium annihilation and a significant reduction in core electron annihilation. We estimate the chemical composition of the various probed surfaces by modeling the ratios of the measured Doppler spectra with respect to the Doppler spectra from a clean Cu surface using a linear combination of calculated ratio curves. The fitting of the experimental ratio curves was used to obtain an estimate of the elemental composition of Cu surfaces with sulfur segregation, oxygen adsorption, a thin film of Selenium (Se), and a single layer of graphene (SLG). A similar analysis was performed on the Ag surface with environmental adsorbates, the same surface after argon ion sputtering, as well as a sputter cleaned Au surface. The surface compositions obtained from the analysis of the CDB data were compared to the compositions obtained using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). Our results show that CDB can detect, identify, and quantify, sub-monolayer adsorbates and a single atomic layer deposited on metal substrates.

Lotfimarangloo, Sima [Univ. of Texas, Arlington, T↗

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced instability growth and improved radiation trapping with optimized shock timing in double-shell inertial confinement fusion capsules

The double shell is a volume-burn inertial confinement fusion concept consisting of two concentric shells: a low-Z outer shell that collides with and transfers momentum to a high-Z inner shell which compresses and heats the thermonuclear fuel. The increased number of capsule interfaces and severe hydrodynamic instability of the high-density pusher during its acceleration phase provide challenges to the success of the double shell. Two-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamics simulations predict the hydrodynamic instability growth on the outer surface of the pusher can be greatly reduced through appropriate timing of two shocks that cross this interface. One of these shocks, unique to multi-shell designs, arises from radiation-driven ablation of the inner shell ahead of the main shock, the second shock of concern. The shock timing is optimized by increasing the thickness of a low-Z tamper layer exterior to the pusher, resulting in only minimal changes to the implosion timing. Reducing the instability growth on the outer surface of the high-Z pusher can dramatically decrease the modulations that feedthrough to the pusher inner surface, improving the efficacy of radiation trapping in the thermonuclear fuel and increasing the predicted thermonuclear yield by ≳20×.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum states of cylindrical surface charge density for modeling plasmonic circuit elements: Nanowires, nanorods, cavities, and waveguides

Nanostructures in the form of ellipsoids, prolate spheroids, rings, and cylinders are known to exhibit resonant surface and cavity modes with applications in nanophotonics and plasmonics and, more recently, in novel quantum experiments, in which control of plasmons and their interactions with plasmons, photons, phonons, excitons, and quantum emitters are desired. Nanorods and nanowires are examples of plasmonic structures with spectral properties of potential use as interconnects and circuit components. Additionally, estimates of the surface properties of these components are needed in circuit design and integrated systems. Here, we present a quantum Hamiltonian for the cylindrical surface charge density. We then study the photon excitation of plasmons on the cylindrical surface and calculate their scattering and radiative decay rate. Nonradiative decay of plasmons induces an efficient heating of the nanoparticle and can photoacoustically excite mechanical oscillations. Computational calculations are also presented for the plasmonic modes and the ensuing excitations of nanomechanical eigenmodes of nanoparticles with near-cylindrical symmetries.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Climatology of Cloud‐Land‐Surface Coupling Across Different ARM Sites

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the evolution and formation of low-level clouds. The different states of coupling between low-level clouds and the surface are uncertain, primarily over continental regions, where complex thermodynamics complicates their investigation. This study uses observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility to explore cloud-surface coupling and perform a climatological analysis of this interaction in five countries across three continents. The results reveal consistent coupling thresholds and average percentages across the five sites, with coupled clouds accounting for 66% of the cases and decoupled clouds for 34%. Thermodynamic and dynamic evaluations show distinct differences between coupled and decoupled clouds. Coupled clouds are characterized by humid environments, in which vertical motions connect the surface and lower atmosphere to the cloud base, conditions that favor the formation of boundary layer clouds. Decoupled clouds prefer to occur in a drier and colder environment with vertical motions inside the boundary layer being detached from the cloud base, under which boundary layer clouds are hard to form. Coupled clouds peak during warmer hours and seasons, and vice versa for decoupled clouds. This study underscores the complexity of cloud-land-surface interactions and paves the way for further investigations into cloud formation and evolution under different atmospheric environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes

Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗

Improvements of SAM Heat Transfer Models for Molten Salt-Cooled Pebble Bed Reactors

To support the development and utilization of the SAM code for molten salt-cooled pebble bed reactor safety analyses and licensing, selected improvements were made to the one-dimensional system-level heat transfer modeling in SAM with the goal of better capturing heat transfer phenomena specific to these designs. In consideration of molten salt as a coolant, new models were introduced to capture the enhanced radiative heat transfer that must be considered at the higher working temperatures. Radiative heat transfer is handled not only between two structural surfaces, but also in combination between the surfaces and the molten salt fluid, which has a higher opacity and absorption of radiative heat as compared to water. Several examples of analytical verification of the new radiative heat transfer methods are included in this report. Additionally, convective heat transfer correlations were selected from literature and included in SAM to account for the enhanced heat transfer expected in pebble bed geometry flows. These correlations are verified and demonstrated in the present work with a reference FHR example.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The universal thermodynamic properties of extremely compact objects

An extremely compact object (ECO) is defined as a quantum object without horizon, whose radius is just a small distance s outside its Schwarzschild radius. We show that any ECO of mass M in d + 1 dimensions with s << (M/m p ) 2/(d-2)(d+1) lp must have (at leading order) the same thermodynamic properties—temperature, entropy and radiation rates—as the corresponding semiclassical black hole of mass M. An essential aspect of the argument involves showing that the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff equation has no consistent solution in the region just outside the ECO surface, unless this region is filled with radiation at the (appropriately blueshifted) Hawking temperature. In string theory it has been found that black hole microstates are fuzzballs—objects with no horizon—which are expected to have a radius that is only a little larger than the horizon radius. Thus the arguments of this paper provide a nice closure to the fuzzball paradigm: the absence of a horizon removes the information paradox, and the thermodynamic properties of the semiclassical hole are nonetheless recovered to an excellent approximation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗