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Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-solid Earth-core system (the "global geophysical fluids") are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, tides, hydrological water redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. With only a few exceptions on the Earth surface, the temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have the capability of monitoring certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. These techniques include the very-long-baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging and Doppler tracking, and the Global Positioning System, all entail global observational networks. While considerable advances have been made in observing and understanding of the dynamics of Earth's rotation, only the lowest-degree gravitational variations have been observed and limited knowledge of geocenter motion obtained. New space missions, projects and initiatives promise to further improve the measurements and hence our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding and modeling capability of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as the solid Earth's response to such changes in constraining the modeling of Earth's mechanical properties.

Chao, B. F.↗

Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Evidence for an Intermediate Mass Black Hole in NGC 5408 X-1

We report the discovery with XMM-Newton of correlated spectral and timing behavior in the ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) NGC 5408 X-1. An approx. 100 ksec pointing with XMM/Newton obtained in January, 2008 reveals a strong 10 mHz QPO in the > 1 keV flux, as well as flat-topped, band limited noise breaking to a power law. The energy spectrum is again dominated by two components, a 0.16 keV thermal disk and a power-law with an index of approx. 2.5. These new measurements, combined with results from our previous January 2006 pointing in which we first detected QPOs, show for the first time in a ULX a pattern of spectral and temporal correlations strongly analogous to that seen in Galactic black hole sources, but at much higher X-ray luminosity and longer characteristic time-scales. We find that the QPO frequency is proportional to the inferred disk flux, while the QPO and broad-band noise amplitude (root mean squared, rms) are inversely proportional to the disk flux. Assuming that QPO frequency scales inversely with black hole mass at a given power-law spectral index we derive mass estimates using the observed QPO frequency - spectral index relations from five stellar-mass black hole systems with dynamical mass constraints. The results from all sources are consistent with a mass range for NGC 5408 X-1 from 1000 - 9000 Stellar mass. We argue that these are conservative limits, and a more likely range is from 2000 - 5000 Stellar mass. Moreover, the recent relation from Gierlinski et al. that relates black hole mass to the strength of variability at high frequencies (above the break in the power spectrum), and the variability plane results of McHardy et al. and Koerding et al., are also suggestive of such a. high mass for NGC 5408 X-1. Importantly, none of the above estimates appears consistent with a black hole mass less than approx. 1000 Stellar mass for NGC 5408 X-1. We argue that these new findings strongly support the conclusion that NGC 5408 X-1 harbors an intermediate mass black hole.

Strohmayer, Tod E.↗

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variabilities Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, MODIS fine mode fraction and MISR non-spherical fraction are 2used to derive dust and smoke AOT components (tau(sub dust) and tau(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic, and their variabilities related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are then investigated. Both MODIS and MISR show a very similar dust and smoke winter climatology. tau(sub dust) is found to be the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic while tau(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than tau(sub dust). The daily MODIS and MISR tau(sub dust) are overall highly correlated, with the correlation coefficients typically about 0.7 over the North Atlantic. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR dust and smoke aerosol climatology and daily variations give us confidence to use these two data sets to investigate their relative contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the MJO. However, unlike the MISR dust discrimination, which is based on particle shape retrievals, the smoke discrimination is less certain, based on assumed partitioning of maritime aerosol for both MISR and MODIS. The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tau(sub dust) anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR. The tau(sub dust) anomalies are very similar to those of tau anomalies, and are of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the MJO-related tau(sub smoke) anomalies are rather small, and the tau(sub mar) anomalies are negligible. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR results suggests that dust aerosol is the dominant component on the intra-seasonal time scale over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Guo, Yanjuan↗

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variations Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fine mode fraction and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) nonspherical fraction data are used to derive dust and smoke aerosol optical thickness (T(sub dust) and T(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic in a complementary way: due to its wider swath, MODIS has 3-4 times greater sampling than MISR, but MISR dust discrimination is based on particle shape retrievals, whereas an empirical scheme is used for MODIS. MODIS and MISR show very similar dust and smoke winter climatologies. T(sub dust) is the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic, accounting for 40-70 percent of the total aerosol optical thickness (AOT), whereas T(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than T(sub dust). The consistency and high correlation between these climatologies and their daily variations lends confidence to their use for investigating the relative dust and smoke contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the τdus anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR: the magnitude of MJO-realted T(sub dust) anomalies is comparable to or even larger than that of the total T, while the T(sub smoke) anomaly represents about 15 percent compared to the total, which is quite different from their relative magnitudes to the total T on the climatological time scale. This suggests that dust and smoke are not influenced by the MJO in the same way. Based on correlation analysis, dust is strongly influenced by the MJO-modulated trade wind and precipitation anomalies, and can last as long as one MJO phase, whereas smoke is less affected.

Madden-Julian Oscillation↗

Alternative Datasets for Identification of Earth Science Events and Data

Alternative, or non-traditional, data sources can be used to generate datasets which can in turn be analyzed for temporal, spatial and climatological patterns. Events and case studies inferred from the analysis of these patterns can be used by the remote sensing community to more effectively search for Earth observation data. In this paper, we present a new alternative Earth science dataset created from the National Weather Service’s Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) documents. We then present an exploratory methodology for identifying interesting climatological patterns within the AFD data and a corresponding motivating example as to how these data and patterns can be used to search for relevant events or case studies.

Alternative data↗

Alternative Datasets for Identification of Earth Science Events and Data

Alternative, or non-traditional, data sources can be used to generate datasets which can in turn be analyzed for temporal, spatial and climatological patterns. Events and case studies inferred from the analysis of these patterns can be used by the remote sensing community to more effectively search for Earth observation data. In this paper, we present a new alternative Earth science dataset created from the National Weather Service’s Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) documents. We then present an exploratory methodology for identifying interesting climatological patterns within the AFD data and a corresponding motivating example as to how these data and patterns can be used to search for relevant events or case studies.

Bugbee, Kaylin↗

Grasses with enhanced starch content

Methods and compositions for the production of monocot plants with increased starch content in stems are provided. In accordance with the invention, novel promoters and regulatory elements with specific temporal and spatial expression patterns are disclosed together with methods for the production of plants having desirable stem composition at harvest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Equatorial Oscillations in Jupiter's and Saturn's Atmospheres

Equatorial oscillations in the zonal-mean temperatures and zonal winds have been well documented in Earth's middle atmosphere. A growing body of evidence from ground-based and Cassini spacecraft observations indicates that such phenomena also occur in the stratospheres of Jupiter and Saturn. Earth-based midinfrared measurements spanning several decades have established that the equatorial stratospheric temperatures on Jupiter vary with a cycle of 4-5 years and on Saturn with a cycle of approximately 15 years. Spectra obtained by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) during the Cassini swingby at the end of 2000, with much better vertical resolution than the ground-based data, indicated a series of vertically stacked warm and cold anomalics at Jupiter's equator; a similar structurc was seen at Saturn's equator in CIRS limb measurements made in 2005, in the early phase of Cassini's orbital tour. The thermal wind equation implied similar patterns of mean zonal winds increasing and decreasing with altitude. On Saturn the peak-to-pcak amplitude of this variation was nearly 200 meters per second. The alternating vertical pattern of wanner and colder cquatorial tcmperatures and easterly and westerly tendencies of the zonal winds is seen in Earth's equatorial oscillations, where the pattern descends with time, The Cassini Jupiter and early Saturn observations were snapshots within a limited time interval, and they did not show the temporal evolution of the spatial patterns. However, more recent Saturn observations by CIRS (2010) and Cassini radio-occultation soundings (2009-2010) have provided an opportunity to follow the change of the temperature-zonal wind pattern, and they suggest there is descent, at a rate of roughly one scale height over four years. On Earth, the observed descent in the zonal-mean structure is associated with the absorption of a combination of vertically propagating waves with easlerly and westerly phase velocities. The peak-to-peak zonal wind amplitude in the oscillation pattern and the rate of descent constrain the absorbed wave flux of zonal momentum. On Saturn this is approximately 0.05 square meters per square seconds, which is comparable to if not greater than that associated with the terrestrial oscillations. We discuss possible candidates for the absorbed waves on Saturn. On Earth the wave forcing of the equatorial oscillation generales secondary circulations that can affcct the temperature and wind structure at latitudes well away from the equator, and we discuss possible evidence of that on Saturn.

Flasar, F. Michael↗

Exploring Cognitive States: Methods for Detecting Physiological Temporal Fingerprints

Cognitive state detection and its relationship to observable physiologically telemetry has been utilized for many human-machine and human-cybernetic applications. This paper aims at understanding and addressing if there are unique psychophysiological patterns over time, a ”physiological temporal fingerprint”, that is associated with specific cognitive states. This preliminary work involves commercial airline pilots completing experimental benchmark task inductions of three cognitive states: 1) Channelized Attention (CA); 2) High Workload (HW); and 3) Low Workload (LW). We approach this objective by modeling these "fingerprints" through the use of Hidden Markov Models and Entropy analysis to evaluate if the transitions over time are complex or rhythmic/predictable by nature. Our results indicate that cognitive states do have unique complexity of physiological sequences that are statistically different from other cognitive states. More specifically, CA has a significantly higher temporal psychophysiological complexity than HW and LW in EEG and ECG telemetry signals. With regards to respiration telemetry, CA has a lower temporal psychophysiological complexity than HW and LW. Through our preliminary work, addressing this unique underpinning can inform whether these underlying dynamics can be utilized to understand how humans transition between cognitive states and for improved detection of cognitive states.

Napoli, Nicholas J.↗

Temporal Dynamics of Place and Mobility

Despite variations in the population, climate, economics, politics, and culture, every country and city around the world shares the same time constraints: there are only 24 hours per day. Yet, the time-dependent activity patterns of when people interact with or move between public, private, and commercial locations change across space and across spatial scales. The temporal dynamics of a place reveal unique patterns based on the complex social, economic, and cultural interactions of humans across the built environment. The continued expansion of multi-modal temporal and geospatial data has attracted many disciplines to study temporal dynamics, each with its own interests, data, methods, and use cases. A comprehensive understanding of how the temporal patterns of a place are created, disrupted, and evolve is reliant on disciplines collaborating and sharing their unique perspectives. This chapter highlights ongoing work in this field and proposes core research questions that should be pursued with the appropriate collaboration and synthesis of data.

Sparks, Kevin↗

Studies on Normal and Microgravity Annular Two Phase Flows

Two-phase gas-liquid flows occur in a wide variety of situations. In addition to normal gravity applications, such flows may occur in space operations such as active thermal control systems, power cycles, and storage and transfer of cryogenic fluids. Various flow patterns exhibiting characteristic spatial and temporal distribution of the two phases are observed in two-phase flows. The magnitude and orientation of gravity with respect to the flow has a strong impact on the flow patterns observed and on their boundaries. The identification of the flow pattern of a flow is somewhat subjective. The same two-phase flow (especially near a flow pattern transition boundary) may be categorized differently by different researchers. Two-phase flow patterns are somewhat simplified in microgravity, where only three flow patterns (bubble, slug and annular) have been observed. Annular flow is obtained for a wide range of gas and liquid flow rates, and it is expected to occur in many situations under microgravity conditions. Slug flow needs to be avoided, because vibrations caused by slugs result in unwanted accelerations. Therefore, it is important to be able to accurately predict the flow pattern which exists under given operating conditions. It is known that the wavy liquid film in annular flow has a profound influence on the transfer of momentum and heat between the phases. Thus, an understanding of the characteristics of the wavy film is essential for developing accurate correlations. In this work, we review our recent results on flow pattern transitions and wavy films in microgravity.

Balakotaiah, V.↗

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Upper tropospheric dynamics as reflected in Nimbus-4 THIR 6.7 micron data

In order to determine if a quantifiable relationship exists between the 6.7 micron radiometric patterns observed by the Nimbus-4 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) and tropospheric dynamics, a 10-level diagnostic model is employed. The model is used to show the spatial and temporal relationships existing between radiometrically observed water vapor patterns and conventionally derived water vapor patterns, and to examine the upper and middle tropospheric water vapor budget and associated dynamics in order to assess the causes behind the spatially- and temporally-varying water vapor radiometric patterns. A particular situation involving a confluent trough located to the lee of the Rockies over the Central United States is examined.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

Satellite observations of 557.7 NM airglow as a diagnostic technique to study the dynamics of the lower thermosphere

Photometric observations of the airglow limb at 557.7 nm have been made from the ISIS 2 satellite since 1971. From an analysis of 32,000 airglow limb observations obtained during the first two years of operation, the major temporal and spatial characteristics of the night airglow have been identified. Maxima occur in mid-October and mid-April at all latitudes. There is a marked variation with latitude during the equinox periods, with peak intensities near 35 degrees in autumn and near 25 degrees in spring. It is possible to gain considerable insight into the behavior of the lower thermosphere by combining the airglow observations with a simple model of the photochemical and dynamical processes. In this way a pattern of the latitude and temporal variation of atomic oxygen concentration at the peak of the layer as well as the eddy diffusion in this altitude region have been inferred. The concentration of atomic oxygen shows midlatitude peaks near equinox, and minima about one month after solstice. Average values at midlatitudes are about 1.3 times those at the equator. The amplitude of the semiannual component is about 20% of the mean value at 35 degrees as compared to 10% at the equator, and the amplitude of 12-month component is about 12% at 35 deg and 5% at the equator. The semiannual component has a minimum that occurs approximately 3 weeks (plus or minus) after solstice at all latitudes, while the 12-month component peaks in the summer hemisphere at solstice (plus or minus 2 months).

Cogger, L. L.↗

Sampling characteristics of satellite orbits

The irregular space-time sampling of any finite region by an orbiting satellite raises difficult questions as to which frequencies and wavenumbers can be determined and which will alias into others. Conventional sampling theorems must be extended to account for both irregular data distributions and observational noise - the sampling irregularity making the system much more susceptible to noise than in regularly sampled cases. The problem is formulated here in terms of least-squares and applied to spacecraft in 10-day and 17-day repeating orbits. The 'diamond-pattern' laid down spatially in such repeating orbits means that either repeat period adequately samples the spatial variables, but the slow overall temporal coverage in the 17-day pattern leads to much greater uncertainty than in the shorter repeat cycle. The result is not definitive and it is not concluded that a 10-day orbit repeat is the most appropriate one. A major conclusion, however, is that different orbital choices have potentially quite different sampling characteristics which need to be analyzed in terms of the spectral characteristics of the moving sea surface.

Wunsch, Carl↗

Contact patterns in wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) from GPS tracking reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of social behaviour

Wild pig ( Sus scrofa Linnaeus, 1758) social behaviour affects disease transmission and landscape-level population management. Recent research has incorporated analysis of social structure to better understand the risk of disease transmission in wild pigs, although the relationship between overall social structure of wild pigs remains unclear. Here, we seek to improve understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of wild pig social structure and contact rates to better inform management strategies. Using GPS tracking data, we measured home range overlap, and estimated contact rates of wild pigs at four study sites in the southern USA to identify pairwise social associations (i.e., contacts) based on synchronous movement. Contact rate was strongly associated with home range overlap, but exhibited substantial variation, especially at moderate levels of home range overlap. We found that female–female dyads had higher contact rates and longer duration phases of social association compared to female–male and male–male dyads. We found male–male dyads tended to experience social associations farther from their home range centers than female–female or female–male dyads. Social associations between wild pig dyads are highly dynamic in their spatial and temporal structure. Further, dyads with strong social associations still experience substantial time apart. Our findings highlight the challenges of predicting spatial and social associations in wild pig social pairs due to their dynamic social structure over space and time.

McIlraith, Jack R.↗