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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

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NASA NTRS2003

Validation of an In-Water, Tower-Shading Correction Scheme

Large offshore structures used for the deployment of optical instruments can significantly perturb the intensity of the light field surrounding the optical measurement point, where different portions of the visible spectrum are subject to different shadowing effects. These effects degrade the quality of the acquired optical data and can reduce the accuracy of several derived quantities, such as those obtained by applying bio-optical algorithms directly to the shadow-perturbed data. As a result, optical remote sensing calibration and validation studies can be impaired if shadowing artifacts are not fully accounted for. In this work, the general in-water shadowing problem is examined for a particular case study. Backward Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer computations- performed in a vertically stratified, horizontally inhomogeneous, and realistic ocean-atmosphere system are shown to accurately simulate the shadow-induced relative percent errors affecting the radiance and irradiance data profiles acquired close to an oceanographic tower. Multiparameter optical data processing has provided adequate representation of experimental uncertainties allowing consistent comparison with simulations. The more detailed simulations at the subsurface depth appear to be essentially equivalent to those obtained assuming a simplified ocean-atmosphere system, except in highly stratified waters. MC computations performed in the simplified system can be assumed, therefore, to accurately simulate the optical measurements conducted under more complex sampling conditions (i.e., within waters presenting moderate stratification at most). A previously reported correction scheme, based on the simplified MC simulations, and developed for subsurface shadow-removal processing of in-water optical data taken close to the investigated oceanographic tower, is then validated adequately under most experimental conditions. It appears feasible to generalize the present tower-specific approach to solve other optical sensor shadowing problems pertaining to differently shaped deployment platforms, and also including surrounding structures and instrument casings.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hall Thruster Thermal Modeling and Test Data Correlation

The life of Hall Effect thrusters are primarily limited by plasma erosion and thermal related failures. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have recently completed development of a Hall thruster with specific emphasis to mitigate these limitations. Extending the operational life of Hall thursters makes them more suitable for some of NASA's longer duration interplanetary missions. This paper documents the thermal model development, refinement and correlation of results with thruster test data. Correlation was achieved by minimizing uncertainties in model input and recognizing the relevant parameters for effective model tuning. Throughout the thruster design phase the model was used to evaluate design options and systematically reduce component temperatures. Hall thrusters are inherently complex assemblies of high temperature components relying on internal conduction and external radiation for heat dispersion and rejection. System solutions are necessary in most cases to fully assess the benefits and/or consequences of any potential design change. Thermal model correlation is critical since thruster operational parameters can push some components/materials beyond their temperature limits. This thruster incorporates a state-of-the-art magnetic shielding system to reduce plasma erosion and to a lesser extend power/heat deposition. Additionally a comprehensive thermal design strategy was employed to reduce temperatures of critical thruster components (primarily the magnet coils and the discharge channel). Long term wear testing is currently underway to assess the effectiveness of these systems and consequently thruster longevity.

Hall thruster↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bi-fidelity modeling of uncertain and partially unknown systems using DeepONets

Recent advances in modeling large-scale, complex physical systems have shifted research focuses towards data-driven techniques. However, generating datasets by simulating complex systems can require significant computational resources. Similarly, acquiring experimental datasets can prove difficult. For these systems, often computationally inexpensive, but in general inaccurate models, known as the low-fidelity models, are available. Here in this paper, we propose a bi-fidelity modeling approach for complex physical systems, where we model the discrepancy between the true system's response and a low-fidelity response in the presence of a small training dataset from the true system's response using a deep operator network, a neural network architecture suitable for approximating nonlinear operators. We apply the approach to systems that have parametric uncertainty and are partially unknown. Three numerical examples are used to show the efficacy of the proposed approach to model uncertain and partially unknown physical systems.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards verifiable cancer digital twins: tissue level modeling protocol for precision medicine

Cancer exhibits substantial heterogeneity, manifesting as distinct morphological and molecular variations across tumors, which frequently undermines the efficacy of conventional oncological treatments. Developments in multiomics and sequencing technologies have paved the way for unraveling this heterogeneity. Nevertheless, the complexity of the data gathered from these methods cannot be fully interpreted through multimodal data analysis alone. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in delineating the underlying mechanisms to explain sources of heterogeneity using patient-specific data. Intra-tumoral diversity necessitates the development of precision oncology therapies utilizing multiphysics, multiscale mathematical models for cancer. This review discusses recent advancements in computational methodologies for precision oncology, highlighting the potential of cancer digital twins to enhance patient-specific decision-making in clinical settings. We review computational efforts in building patient-informed cellular and tissue-level models for cancer and propose a computational framework that utilizes agent-based modeling as an effective conduit to integrate cancer systems models that encode signaling at the cellular scale with digital twin models that predict tissue-level response in a tumor microenvironment customized to patient information. Furthermore, we discuss machine learning approaches to building surrogates for these complex mathematical models. These surrogates can potentially be used to conduct sensitivity analysis, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, which is especially important for tumor studies due to their dynamic nature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf

Abstract. Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon-climate model Hector v.2.3.pf

Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

Dawn L. Woodard↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extreme-scale stochastic optimization and simulation via learning-enhanced decomposition and parallelization (Final Technical Report)

Stochastic optimization and simulation models ubiquitously arise in designing and operating complex service/engineering systems. They can be extreme in scale due to high-dimensional data and decisions, and can also involve decisions made sequentially in response to newly revealed data, both causing significant computational challenge. The objective of this research is to explore a unified framework that integrates machine learning with discrete optimization and risk-averse modeling, to improve the efficiency of decomposition paradigms for stochastic optimization and simulations at extreme scale. The models we consider represent a broad class of complex decision-making problems, where 0-1 or continuous decisions are made before and/or after knowing multiple sources of uncertainties that could be correlated. We will employ machine learning methods to dynamically decide and prioritize computational procedures, including cut generation, branching, and bounding of the optimal objective. Furthermore, the research will shed new lights on the traditional decomposition algorithms for extreme-scale computing. Deliverables of the research include new modeling and computational methods for advancing the state-of-the-art research in optimization and simulation, bringing many relevant risk-averse, data-driven optimization problems in practice within the range of tractability. Examples include distributed computing server scheduling and sensor deployment for monitoring critical infrastructures. Success in this effort will enable progress in solving multiple extreme-scale problems in the complex system design and operations arising from DoE missions in energy, environment, and national security.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Photoneutrons from Depleted Uranium and Comparison Study Using MCNPX-PoliMi

High-energy photon interrogation is a nondestructive technique that is used to detect special nuclear materials and characterize nuclear waste. The development of such systems is complex and requires Monte Carlo simulations to optimize system performance. Monte Carlo simulations rely on various scattering, absorption, and photonuclear cross-section data. While the scattering and absorption cross-section data have been extensively studied and validated with experiments, the results obtained from photonuclear simulations are often found to underpredict measured results, indicating uncertainties in the photonuclear cross sections themselves. Thus, there is a need for new measured results that can be used to quantify underpredictions in simulations using photonuclear cross-section data. In the present work, we interrogated depleted uranium with a 9-MV electron linac and detected photoneutrons with trans-stilbene organic scintillators. The measurement of photoneutrons with organic scintillators is challenging due to the presence of the intense photon flux, which causes issues such as pulse pile-up, detector saturation, and poor signal-to-background ratio. To mitigate these challenges, we used iron and polyethylene shielding of varying thicknesses around the depleted uranium target and a neural network–based digital pulse processing algorithm to recover neutron and photon information from piled-up events. Our goal was to compare the measured photoneutron count rate with the simulated rate obtained using the MCNPX-PoliMi transport code. For a light output window of 0.28 to 2.67 MeVee (1.66- to 6.85-MeV proton recoil energy), we found that the simulated count rate obtained using the ENDF/B-VII photonuclear cross-section library underpredicts the measured rate by 32.8% 3.2%. Additionally, we compared the simulated and measured photoneutron light output distributions. For the least thicknesses of shielding, the simulation was found to underpredict measurements in the 0.70- to 2.67-MeVee light output window. For the greatest thicknesses of shielding, the simulation was found to underpredict the measurement across the entire light output window of 0.28 to 2.67 MeVee.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model emulation and closure tests for (3+1)D relativistic heavy-ion collisions

In nuclear and particle physics, reconciling sophisticated simulations with experimental data is vital for understanding complex systems like the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) generated in heavy ion collisions. However, computational demands pose challenges, motivating using Gaussian Process emulators for efficient parameter extraction via Bayesian calibration. We conduct a comparative analysis of Gaussian Process emulators in heavy-ion physics to identify the most adept emulator for parameter extraction with minimal uncertainty. Furthermore, our study contributes to advancing computational techniques in heavy-ion physics, enhancing our ability to interpret experimental data and understand QGP properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Range Transport of Biomass Burning Aerosols from Southern Africa: A Case Study Using Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds Observations

A case study of an incoming biomass burning aerosol plume at Ascension Island is analyzed for the peak of the 2017 fire season using satellites, reanalysis and in situ observations. Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility 1 reveal an abrupt change from relatively clean conditions (~70 parts per billion by volume of carbon monoxide) to a more polluted state (~150 parts per billion by volume of carbon monoxide). Corresponding changes in aerosol size reveal a broadening of size distributions toward larger optical diameters, consistent with the arrival of aged aerosols. Within a 24 h period, black carbon fraction increases ~500% from ~300 ng m e to ~1500 ng m 3 , while light absorption coefficients increase ~300%. Long-range transport of these aerosols is primarily confined between 2 and 5 km above sea level along the northwesterly trade winds. Our results show that the primary driver of increases in aerosol loading over Ascension Island is an intensification of the St. Helena high-pressure system (anticyclone) that leads to a weakening of trade winds and increases westward transport on its northern flank. A better understanding of the complex interactions between air quality, meteorology and long-range aerosol transport is important for future modeling studies focused on aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions over the open ocean and reducing its associated uncertainties.

aerosol size distribution↗

NASA NTRS2001

The 3D Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update and Refinement (RG4) Concept

This paper describes an active (real time) recognition strategy whereby information is inferred iteratively across several viewpoints in descent imagery. We will show how we use inverse theory within the context of parametric model generation, namely height and spectral reflection functions, to generate model assertions. Using this strategy in an active context implies that, from every viewpoint, the proposed system must refine its hypotheses taking into account the image and the effect of uncertainties as well. The proposed system employs probabilistic solutions to the problem of iteratively merging information (images) from several viewpoints. This involves feeding the posterior distribution from all previous images as a prior for the next view. Novel approaches will be developed to accelerate the inversion search using novel statistic implementations and reducing the model complexity using foveated vision. Foveated vision refers to imagery where the resolution varies across the image. In this paper, we allow the model to be foveated where the highest resolution region is called the foveation region. Typically, the images will have dynamic control of the location of the foveation region. For descent imagery in the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) process, it is possible to have more than one foveation region. This research initiative is directed towards descent imagery in connection with NASA's EDL applications. Three-Dimensional Model Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update, and Refinement (RGFUR or RG4) for height and the spectral reflection characteristics are in focus for various reasons, one of which is the prospect that their interpretation will provide for real time active vision for automated EDL.

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Human-Automation Allocations for Current Robotic Space Operations

Within the Human Research Program, one risk delineates the uncertainty surrounding crew working with automation and robotics in spaceflight. The Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI) is concerned with the detrimental effects on crew performance due to ineffective user interfaces, system designs and/or functional task allocation, potentially compromising mission success and safety. Risk arises because we have limited experience with complex automation and robotics. One key gap within HARI, is the gap related to functional allocation. The gap states: We need to evaluate, develop, and validate methods and guidelines for identifying human-automation/robot task information needs, function allocation, and team composition for future long duration, long distance space missions. Allocations determine the human-system performance as it identifies the functions and performance levels required by the automation/robotic system, and in turn, what work the crew is expected to perform and the necessary human performance requirements. Allocations must take into account each of the human, automation, and robotic systems capabilities and limitations. Some functions may be intuitively assigned to the human versus the robot, but to optimize efficiency and effectiveness, purposeful role assignments will be required. The role of automation and robotics will significantly change in future exploration missions, particularly as crew becomes more autonomous from ground controllers. Thus, we must understand the suitability of existing function allocation methods within NASA as well as the existing allocations established by the few robotic systems that are operational in spaceflight. In order to evaluate future methods of robotic allocations, we must first benchmark the allocations and allocation methods that have been used. We will present 1) documentation of human-automation-robotic allocations in existing, operational spaceflight systems; and 2) To gather existing lessons learned and best practices in these role assignments, from spaceflight operational experience of crew and ground teams that may be used to guide development for future systems. NASA and other space agencies have operational spaceflight experience with two key Human-Automation-Robotic (HAR) systems: heavy lift robotic arms and planetary robotic explorers. Additionally, NASA has invested in high-fidelity rover systems that can carry crew, building beyond Apollo's lunar rover. The heavy lift robotic arms reviewed are: Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS), Japanese Remote Manipulator System (JEMRMS), and the European Robotic Arm (ERA, designed but not deployed in space). The robotic rover systems reviewed are: Mars Exploration Rovers, Mars Science Laboratory rover, and the high-fidelity K10 rovers. Much of the design and operational feedback for these systems have been communicated to flight controllers and robotic design teams. As part of the mitigating the HARI risk for future human spaceflight operations, we must document function allocations between robots and humans that have worked well in practice.

robotic allocation↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time FPGA Implementation For Frequency Sweep Interferometry In The LBNF Complex

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) will deliver a 2.4 MW muon neutrino beam from Fermilab to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), requiring unprecedented precision in beamline alignment to achieve DUNE's neutrino oscillation measurement goals. Vertical misalignments of beamline components as small as 0.5 mm can contribute 6-7\% uncertainty in predicted neutrino flux, necessitating sub-0.1 mm alignment monitoring capabilities. The Horn Location Sensor (HLS) system employs frequency sweep interferometry (FSI) in a distributed hydrostatic leveling network to achieve the required precision under harsh radiation conditions up to 5000 kRad/year. Traditional FSI implementations suffer from laser sweep nonlinearities that degrade resolution and require computationally intensive post-processing corrections using gas reference cells. This work presents a real-time FPGA-based implementation of the HLS data acquisition and processing system using a sweep tracker interferometer for dynamic sweep linearization. The system utilizes a PYNQ-Z2 FPGA with programmable logic implementing parallel 16k-point FFT processing across four channels, synchronized by the sweep tracker signal to eliminate post-processing requirements. Spectral performance testing demonstrates significant improvements in peak sharpness compared to traditional fixed-frequency digitization. The FPGA implementation enables real-time displacement monitoring with processing speeds orders of magnitude faster than software-based approaches, essential for the operational requirements of LBNF's eventual distributed sensor network. This advancement in real-time FSI processing directly supports DUNE's precision neutrino physics program by providing the rapid feedback necessary for maintaining stringent beamline alignment tolerances during high-power beam operations.

Rossel, A. Jacob [Fermilab; Unlisted]↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗