Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Applied Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24

Seismic Contingency Auto Generator

This code takes in premade earthquake scenario XML files from USGS, power grid data, and converts them into a contingency file (.con file) that can be used by power grid solvers. Within the .con file are a number (Specified by the user) of contingencies that have randomly failed power transformers based on their likelihood of failure and peak ground acceleration (PGA) value around the transformer. The transformers' likelihood of failure was calculated based on a variety of finite element modeling on various transformer designed for specific transformer voltage classes. Parameters from these FEM were used to create generic fragility curves for transformers within a specific voltage class, which correspond with earthquake PGA values to produced a probability of failure for a given earthquake scenario. More refined versions of this process, such as specifying specific transformer design categories within a voltage class, could also be applied in future iterations of the software.

Vaagensmith, Bjorn [Idaho National Laboratory (INL↗

Advancements in nuclear data evaluations in the unresolved resonance region [Slides]

Minimal updates to current capabilities (SAMMY/AMPX) and to the ENDF format are proposed to include threshold reaction for outgoing charged-particle channels in the URR formalism. If average resonance parameters are reported, probability tables for newly defined reactions channels may be needed, implemented, and tested. Nuclear data evaluation of n+ 35 Cl reactions can be considered the best case to apply the proposed updates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Strong Correlation DMRG and DFT

This project developed new ways to improve computer simulations of materials where electrons interact strongly with each other, a challenge for today’s most widely used method, density functional theory (DFT). We used an exact numerical method, the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG), to create highly accurate reference results for simple model systems, and used these to test DFT, prove when it will converge, and even train machine-learned functionals. We also invented new kinds of localized basis functions (“gausslets” and “multi-sliced gausslets”) and a “sliced-basis” approach that make high-accuracy simulations faster and more practical. These methods were applied to extended hydrogen systems, enabling the direct derivation of accurate low-energy models from first-principles calculations. We also introduced a new formalism, Conditional-Probability DFT, which could bypass traditional approximations. The tools and results from this work, including open-source software releases, will help scientists design and understand complex quantum materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Application of stochastic robustness to aircraft control systems

Stochastic robustness, a simple numerical procedure for estimating the stability robustness of linear, time-invariant systems, is applied to a forward-swept-wing aircraft control system. Based on Monte Carlo evaluation of the system's closed-loop eignevalues, this analysis approach introduces the probability of instability as a scalar stability robustness measure. The related stochastic root locus provides insight into robustness characteristics of the closed-loop system. Three Linear Quadratic controllers of decreasing robustness are chosen to demonstrate the use of stochastic robustness to analyze and compare control designs. Examples are presented illustrating the use of stochastic robustness analysis to address the effects of actuator dynamics and unmodeled dynamics on the stability robustness of the forward-swept-wing aircraft.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Evidence for dwarf stars at D of about 100 kiloparsecs near the Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxy

A method is presented for detecting individual, metal-poor, dwarf stars at distances less than about 150 kpc - a method specifically designed to filter out stars from among the much more numerous faint background field galaxies on the basis of broad-band colors. This technique is applied to two fields at high Galactic latitude, for which there are deep CCD data in four bands ranging from 3600 to 9000 A. The field in Sextans probably contains more than about five dwarf stars with BJ not greater than 25.5. These are consistent with being at a common distance about 100 kpc and lie about 1.7 deg from the newly discovered dwarf galaxy in Sextans whose distance is about 85 +/- 10 kpc. The stars lie near the major axis of the galaxy and are near or beyond the tidal radius. The second field, toward the south Galactic pole, may contain up to about five extra-Galactic stars, but these show no evidence for being at a common distance. Possible applications of this type technique are discussed, and it is shown that even very low surface brightness star clusters or dwarf galaxies may be detected at distances less than about 1 Mpc.

Gould, Andrew↗

A Validation Summary of the NCC Turbulent Reacting/non-reacting Spray Computations

This pper provides a validation summary of the spray computations performed as a part of the NCC (National Combustion Code) development activity. NCC is being developed with the aim of advancing the current prediction tools used in the design of advanced technology combustors based on the multidimensional computational methods. The solution procedure combines the novelty of the application of the scalar Monte Carlo PDF (Probability Density Function) method to the modeling of turbulent spray flames with the ability to perform the computations on unstructured grids with parallel computing. The calculation procedure was applied to predict the flow properties of three different spray cases. One is a nonswirling unconfined reacting spray, the second is a nonswirling unconfined nonreacting spray, and the third is a confined swirl-stabilized spray flame. The comparisons involving both gas-phase and droplet velocities, droplet size distributions, and gas-phase temperatures show reasonable agreement with the available experimental data. The comparisons involve both the results obtained from the use of the Monte Carlo PDF method as well as those obtained from the conventional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solution. Detailed comparisons in the case of a reacting nonswirling spray clearly highlight the importance of chemistry/turbulence interactions in the modeling of reacting sprays. The results from the PDF and non-PDF methods were found to be markedly different and the PDF solution is closer to the reported experimental data. The PDF computations predict that most of the combustion occurs in a predominantly diffusion-flame environment. However, the non-PDF solution predicts incorrectly that the combustion occurs in a predominantly vaporization-controlled regime. The Monte Carlo temperature distribution shows that the functional form of the PDF for the temperature fluctuations varies substantially from point to point. The results also bring to the fore some of the deficiencies associated with the use of assumed-shape PDF methods in spray computations.

Raju, M. S.↗

Foam on Tile Impact Modeling for the STS-107 Investigation

Following the breakup of the Space Shuttle Columbia during reentry a NASA/Contractor investigation team was formed to examine the probable damage inflicted on Orbiter Thermal Protection System elements by impact of External Tank insulating foam projectiles. The authors formed a working subgroup within the larger team to apply the Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics code SPHC to the damage estimation problem. Numerical models of the Orbiter's tiles and of the Tank's foam were constructed and used as inputs into the code. Material properties needed to properly model the tiles and foam were obtained from other working subgroups who performed tests on these items for this purpose. Two- and three-dimensional models of the tiles were constructed, including the glass outer layer, the main body of LI-900 insulation, the densified lower layer of LI-900, the Nomex felt mounting layer, and the Aluminum 2024 vehicle skin. A model for the BX-250 foam including porous compression, elastic rebound, and surface erosion was developed. Code results for the tile damage and foam behavior were extensively validated through comparison with Southwest Research Institute foam-on-tile impact experiments carried out in 1999. These tests involved small projectiles striking individual tiles and small tile arrays. Following code and model validation we simulated impacts of larger foam projectiles on the examples of tile systems used on the Orbiter. Results for impacts on the main landing gear door are presented in this paper, including effects of impacts at several angles, and of rapidly rotating projectiles. General results suggest that foam impacts on tiles at about 500 mph could cause appreciable damage if the impact angle is greater than about 20 degrees. Some variations of the foam properties, such as increased brittleness or increased density could increase damage in some cases. Rotation up to 17 rps failed to increase the damage for the two cases considered. This does not rule out other cases in which the rotational energy might lead to an increase in tile damage, but suggests that in most cases rotation will not be an important factor.

Stellingwerf, R. F.↗

Solution of Nonlinear Systems

The problem of solving systems of nonlinear equations has been relatively neglected in the mathematical literature, especially in the textbooks, in comparison to the corresponding linear problem. Moreover, treatments that have an appearance of generality fail to discuss the nature of the solutions and the possible pitfalls of the methods suggested. Probably it is unrealistic to expect that a unified and comprehensive treatment of the subject will evolve, owing to the great variety of situations possible, especially in the applied field where some requirement of human or mechanical efficiency is always present. Therefore we attempt here simply to pose the problem and to describe and partially appraise the methods of solution currently in favor.

Turner, L. R.↗

Inter-Calibrating the CERES SW Instrument Fluxes Using Deep Convective Clouds(DCC) Within the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES EBAF product provides the scientific community observed TOA fluxes to monitor the Earth’s energy imbalance and to validate climate models. To provide a seamless EBAF 24-year record, the CERES instrument calibration must be stable and consistent across satellite records. Once the Terra and Aqua spacecraft are decommissioned at the end of 2025, the CERES project will rely on CERES instrument observations on the SNPP and NOAA-20 1:30 PM sun-synchronous orbits. The SNPP and NOAA-20 satellite orbit placement will prevent any time matched observations for inter-calibration efforts. The future Libera instrument, which will continue the CERES record and scheduled for launch in 2028 onboard the NOAA-22 satellite, will also need to be inter-calibrated without the aid of time-matched observations. Deep convective clouds (DCC) are the most Lambertian, brightest, tropical Earth invariant targets located at the tropopause making them ideal to radiometrically scale the CERES SW observed radiance to a common reference. The SNPP, NOAA-20 and future NOAA-22 satellites are in the same 16-day repeatable orbits, allowing the DCC targets to be observed with the same angular configuration. The empirically derived SNPP CERES SW channel Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) can be easily be applied to the NOAA-20 CERES SW channel radiances since they observe the nearly the same DCC systems. The DCC BRDF corrected radiances are analyzed collectively into radiance probability distribution functions (PDF). By comparing the PDF statistics, the SNPP and NOAA-20 CERES SW channel can be inter-calibrated. The inter-calibration coefficients are validated with the CERES instrument calibration team coefficients to optimize the methodology.

David Doelling↗

Blending Pipeline Analysis Tool for Hydrogen (BlendPATH) Documentation and User Manual

The Blending Pipeline Analysis Tool for Hydrogen (BlendPATH) is a flexible, open-source Python tool designed to provide users with case-by-case analysis capabilities to identify the necessary modifications to repurpose existing natural gas transmission pipeline networks to transport hydrogen as a blend of a user-specified volume fraction of hydrogen or as a pure stream and to estimate the associated capital and operating expenditures resulting from those modifications. This tool is intended to be applied during the initial screening stage of a prospective project when pipeline developers compile transmission pipeline technical documentation and history but prior to performing detailed pipeline inspections. Performing analysis with BlendPATH during this initial screening stage can provide the user with an understanding of promising opportunities and probable economic outcomes of repurposing their pipeline network for hydrogen before proceeding with detailed pipeline materials testing and pipeline inspections. BlendPATH consists of multiple modules to simulate, assess, and modify existing natural gas transmission pipeline network designs to be compatible with hydrogen as a blend or pure stream. The tool employs an open-source gas network hydraulic model to simulate existing, user-specified transmission pipeline networks, and it applies ASME B31.12 to assess the pipe segments within these networks for compatibility with hydrogen and to modify the networks to achieve compatibility where the existing infrastructure is inadequate. Users can specify ASME B31.12 design options for pipeline assessment and can select from multiple methods for pipeline modification. This report details the functionalities of BlendPATH Version 2.0.2 and demonstrates an example of applying BlendPATH to a case study. Potential and intended users of this framework include natural gas pipeline developers and operators and researchers at both public and private institutions. BlendPATH is publicly available at https://github.com/NREL/BlendPATH.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Peak Wind Forecasts for the Launch-Critical Wind Towers on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds arc an important forecast clement for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the statistics in the current peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool includes onshore and offshore flow climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Synergistic Use of Hyperspectral UV-Visible OMI and Broadband Meteorological Imager MODIS Data for a Merged Aerosol Product

The retrieval of optimal aerosol datasets by the synergistic use of hyperspectral ultraviolet(UV)–visible and broadband meteorological imager (MI) techniques was investigated. The Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Level 1B (L1B) was used as a proxy for hyperspectral UV–visible instrument data to which the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) aerosol algorithm was applied. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) L1B and dark target aerosol Level 2 (L2) data were used with a broadband MI to take advantage of the consistent time gap between the MODIS and the OMI. First, the use of cloud mask information from the MI infrared (IR) channel was tested for synergy. High-spatial-resolution and IR channels of the MI helped mask cirrus and sub-pixel cloud contamination of GEMS aerosol, as clearly seen in aerosol optical depth (AOD) validation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data. Second, dust aerosols were distinguished in the GEMS aerosol-type classification algorithm by calculating the total dust confidence index (TDCI) from MODIS L1B IR channels. Statistical analysis indicates that the Probability of Correct Detection (POCD) between the forward and inversion aerosol dust models (DS) was increased from 72% to 94% by use of the TDCI for GEMS aerosol-type classification, and updated aerosol types were then applied to the GEMS algorithm. Use of the TDCI for DS type classification in the GEMS retrieval procedure gave improved single-scattering albedo (SSA) values for absorbing fine pollution particles (BC) and DS aerosols. Aerosol layer height (ALH) retrieved from GEMS was compared with Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data, which provides high-resolution vertical aerosol profile information. The CALIOP ALH was calculated from total attenuated backscatter data at 1064 nm, which is identical to the definition of GEMS ALH. Application of the TDCI value reduced the median bias of GEMS ALH data slightly. The GEMS ALH bias approximates zero, especially for GEMS AOD values of>~0.4 and GEMS SSA values of<~0.95.Finally, the AOD products from the GEMS algorithm and MI were used in aerosol merging with the maximum-likelihood estimation method, based on a weighting factor derived from the standard deviation of the original AOD products. With the advantage of the UV–visible channel in retrieving aerosol properties over bright surfaces, the combined AOD products demonstrated better spatial data availability than the original AOD products, with comparable accuracy. Furthermore, pixel-level error analysis of GEMS AOD data indicates improvement through MI synergy.

aerosol↗

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Observations of a probable change in the solar radius between 1715 and 1979

A decrease in the solar radius is determined using the technique of Dunham and Dunham (1973), in which timed observations are made just inside the path edges. When the method is applied to the solar eclipses of 1715, 1976, and 1979, the solar radius for 1715 is 0.34 + or - 0.2 arc second larger than the recent values, with no significant change between 1976 and 1979. The duration of totality is examined as a function of distance from the edges of the path. Corrections to the radius of the sun derived from observations of the 1976 and 1979 eclipses by the International Occultation Timing Association are also presented.

Dunham, D. W.↗

On the stability of robotic systems with random communication rates

Control problems of sampled data systems which are subject to random sample rate variations and delays are studied. Due to the rapid growth of the use of computers more and more systems are controlled digitally. Complex systems such as space telerobotic systems require the integration of a number of subsystems at different hierarchical levels. While many subsystems may run on a single processor, some subsystems require their own processor or processors. The subsystems are integrated into functioning systems through communications. Communications between processes sharing a single processor are also subject to random delays due to memory management and interrupt latency. Communications between processors involve random delays due to network access and to data collisions. Furthermore, all control processes involve delays due to casual factors in measuring devices and to signal processing. Traditionally, sampling rates are chosen to meet the worst case communication delay. Such a strategy is wasteful as the processors are then idle a great proportion of the time; sample rates are not as high as possible resulting in poor performance or in the over specification of control processors; there is the possibility of missing data no matter how low the sample rate is picked. Asymptotical stability with probability one for randomly sampled multi-dimensional linear systems is studied. A sufficient condition for the stability is obtained. This condition is so simple that it can be applied to practical systems. A design procedure is also shown.

Kobayashi, H.↗

Evacuated FM08 Fuses Carry a Sustained Arc in a Bus over 75 VDC

The FM08 style fuse is specified to interrupt an overcurrent of up to 300 A in a bus of up to 125 VDC, but this applies only when its barrel is filled with air. When placed into a space-grade vacuum, the FM08 style fuse exhausts its air within a year. Then, the probability of an enduring arc is high for all ratings when the bus is above 75 VDC, and the overcurrent is large. The arc endures until something else interrupts the current. The fuse can violently eject metal vapor or other material during the sustained arcing. The evacuated FM08 does not develop a sustained arc when interrupted in a bus of 38 VDC or less, at least when there is little inductance in the circuit. This is consistent with its successful use in many spacecraft having buses in the range 24 to 36 volts.

Leidecker, Henning↗

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗