SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Crop Models”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Demonstration of in-Situ Resource Utilization of Lunar Regolith for Plant Growing Systems Through Scaled Capillary Models
The development of reliable and bioregenerative crop growth production systems is vital for human exploration into deep space. As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares for the Artemis missions, scientists need to find a way to provide consistent and sufficient water delivery for all stages of a plant’s life cycle. NASA has been able to successfully model passive flow through felt material, to mimic the water uptake and transport through a plant, in microgravity. However, more studies need to be conducted to adapt the model for a substrate-based system and incorporate how flow will change during each stage of plant growth. For future missions, payload requirements to support crop production systems will need to be limited, leading to the use of available resources, such as lunar regolith. Although numerous lunar regolith simulants are commercially available, few have been evaluated for their suitability in agricultural applications. First, a base regolith simulant will need to be identified based on its physical and chemical properties. Then, additional amendments to improve the properties of the simulants to support plant growth will be identified. The design and composition of the substrate will be based on water transport requirements for different stages of plant growth. Scaled capillary models can be utilized to study surface-tension driven flows through various designer substrates to modify the physical properties of the selected regolith simulant. These models can accurately represent how flow will act in a reduced gravity environment, which can be used to design a full-scale facility for surface missions. This project will aid space researchers in the design of future crop production systems for surface missions by creating a refined model that can be used at all stages of plant growth and utilize in situ resources.
Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes
Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.
Plant Watering in Low Gravity: The Study of the Fluid Dynamic Characteristics of Lunar Regolith Simulant for the Application of Crop Production Systems Using Scaled Capillary Devices
Bioregenerative life support is key to sustaining human life on the surface of other celestial bodies for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). One example of such life support includes crop production systems capable of producing both plants and fungi for astronaut consumption. There have been numerous efforts to design and deploy such systems; however, there have been persistent fundamental issues with the water delivery systems. This study aims to understand and model the fluid dynamics of crop production systems to inform engineers about the key parameters needed for the design of such systems. The primary objective is to validate and expand upon NASA’s previous study, the Plant Water Management (PWM) experiments, to understand the fluid phenomena present in substrate-based systems. The model will then be expanded to include parameters for changing the test material of potential growth media as well as the varying water demands of the crop throughout its different stages in its life cycle. Specifically, this study is focused on the viability of using lunar regolith for agricultural purposes. Terrestrial-based scaled capillary models will be utilized to mimic the fluid phenomena occurring due to the low gravity environment seen on the lunar surface. Ultimately, the study will model the fluid flow present in the lunar regolith simulant and inform researchers on how to incorporate the material into crop production systems on the lunar surface.
Impact of vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits on simulating soybean canopy photosynthesis via 1D and 3D modeling
Accurate modeling of photosynthesis is crucial for predicting crop productivity and quantifying the carbon cycle in agroecosystems. Leaf traits are essential inputs for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Yet, many existing models still use fixed plant functional type (PTF)-based values to parameterize leaf traits under a big-leaf or two-big-leaf assumption, neglecting their vertical profiles and seasonal changes. This simplification may introduce significant uncertainties in estimating gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study, we simulated soybean GPP and tested the effects of vertical and seasonal variation in three key leaf photosynthetic traits: the maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax 25 ), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and leaf mass per area (LMA) in the 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios models. Weekly field measurements were conducted during the growing season of 2024 to support the simulation. We designed ten leaf trait parameterization schemes by incorporating different combinations of vertical profiles and seasonal changes, while assuming homogeneous canopy architecture in both models. Our results revealed that Vcmax 25 vertical and seasonal variation had the strongest influence on simulated GPP in both 1D and 3D models, while LCC and LMA effects were minimal. Particularly, the scheme with an empirically parameterized Vcmax 25 profile achieved comparable performance to the scheme with the measured Vcmax 25 profile. Both 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios accurately modeled GPP (SCOPE: R 2 = 0.87, Bias = 0.55 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹; Helios: R 2 = 0.9, Bias = 0.22 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹) under the most complex scheme, and their responses to vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits were consistent, demonstrating the robustness of our findings. Based on our findings, we propose a scalable framework for parameterizing leaf traits to improve GPP simulations. This study contributes to improving the representation of leaf trait dynamics in canopy-level photosynthesis models, potentially enhancing our ability to predict crop productivity and understand agroecosystem carbon dynamics.
Towards Soil Moisture Profile Estimation in the Root Zone Using L- and P-Band Radiometer Observations: A Coherent Modelling Approach
Precision irrigation management and crop water stress assessment rely on accurate estimation of root zone soil moisture. However, only the top 5cm soil moisture can be estimated using the two current passive microwave satellite missions, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), which operate at L-band (wavelength of ~21cm). Since the contributing depth of the soil to brightness temperature increases with observation wavelength, it is expected that a P-band (wavelength of ~40cm) radiometer could potentially provide soil moisture information from deeper layers of the soil profile. Moreover, by combining both L- and P- bands, it is hypothesized that the soil moisture profile can be estimated even beyond their individual observation depths. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of combined L-band and P-band radiometer observations to estimate the soil moisture profile under flat bare soil using a stratified coherent forward model. Brightness temperature observations at L-band and P-band from a tower based experimental site across a dry (April 2019) and a wet (March 2020) period, covering different soil moisture profile shapes, were used in this study. Results from an initial synthetic study showed that the performance of a combined L-band and P-band approach was better than the performance of using either band individually, with an average depth over which reliable soil moisture profile information could be estimated (i.e. with a target root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.04 m3/m3) being 20cm for linear and 15cm for second-order polynomial functions. Other functions were also tested but found to have a poorer performance. Applying the method to the tower-based brightness temperature achieved an average estimation depth of 28cm (20cm) and 5cm (5cm) during the dry and wet periods respectively when using a second-order polynomial (linear) function. These findings highlight the opportunity of a satellite mission with L-band and P-band observations to accurately estimate the soil moisture profile to as deep as 30cm globally.
Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model
Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.
Elucidation of Triacylglycerol Overproduction in the C4 Bioenergy Crop Sorghum bicolor by Constraint-Based Analysis
Upregulation of triacylglycerols (TAGs) in vegetative plant tissues such as leaves has the potential to drastically increase the energy density and biomass yield of bioenergy crops. In this context, constraint-based analysis has the promise to improve metabolic engineering strategies. Here we present a core metabolism model for the C 4 biomass crop Sorghum bicolor ( iTJC1414 ) along with a minimal model for photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation, sucrose and TAG biosynthesis in C 3 plants. Extending iTJC1414 to a four-cell diel model we simulate C 4 photosynthesis in mature leaves with the principal photo-assimilatory product being replaced by TAG produced at different levels. Independent of specific pathways and per unit carbon assimilated, energy content and biosynthetic demands in reducing equivalents are about 1.3 to 1.4 times higher for TAG than for sucrose. For plant generic pathways, ATP- and NADPH-demands per CO 2 assimilated are higher by 1.3- and 1.5-fold, respectively. If the photosynthetic supply in ATP and NADPH in iTJC1414 is adjusted to be balanced for sucrose as the sole photo-assimilatory product, overproduction of TAG is predicted to cause a substantial surplus in photosynthetic ATP. This means that if TAG synthesis was the sole photo-assimilatory process, there could be an energy imbalance that might impede the process. Adjusting iTJC1414 to a photo-assimilatory rate that approximates field conditions, we predict possible daily rates of TAG accumulation, dependent on varying ratios of carbon partitioning between exported assimilates and accumulated oil droplets (TAG, oleosin) and in dependence of activation of futile cycles of TAG synthesis and degradation. We find that, based on the capacity of leaves for photosynthetic synthesis of exported assimilates, mature leaves should be able to reach a 20% level of TAG per dry weight within one month if only 5% of the photosynthetic net assimilation can be allocated into oil droplets. From this we conclude that high TAG levels should be achievable if TAG synthesis is induced only during a final phase of the plant life cycle.
Plant, soil, and shadow reflectance components of row crops
Data from the first Earth Resource Technology Satellite (LANDSAT-1) multispectral scanner (MSS) were used to develop three plant canopy models (Kubelka-Munk (K-M), regression, and combined K-M and regression models) for extracting plant, soil, and shadow reflectance components of cropped fields. The combined model gave the best correlation between MSS data and ground truth, by accounting for essentially all of the reflectance of plants, soil, and shadow between crop rows. The principles presented can be used to better forecast crop yield and to estimate acreage.
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa
Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) was implemented to assess climate change and adaptation that links climate, crops, economic data and tools developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). In this context, the“system”is defined as a whole of agronomic and socio-economic factors. Within that framework three core questions were being evaluated: (i) Impacts of climate change under current system; (ii) Impacts of climate change under future system; (iii) The role of adaptation under climate change and the future system. Maize production will decrease between 10% to 16% as a result of projected climate impacts. Also, current agricultural production systems are negatively affected by climate change with an increase in poverty rates between 2% to 3%. The projected adoption of the adapted technology would result in positive increased net returns and a decrease in poverty rate of between 12%and 22%. The results of this study show that implementing adaptation measures and other strategies as indicated by the local stakeholders will have positive impacts on the agricultural production systems and can contribute to support and inform climate change policy decision making such as the development of National Adaptation Plans.
Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections
Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.
CORN (Crop Optimization Realized through Neuralnets)
Traditional models of predicting plant traits are limited because they often rely on linear assumptions that do not fully capture the complexity of biological interactions and DNA-based markers which are static across environments. This project generated a set of RNA-based data from large multi-environment field trials and combined it with advanced machine learning techniques to account for these complex interactions and improve the accuracy of predictions.
Utilizing In Situ Directional Hyperspectral Measurements to Validate Bio-Indicator Simulations for a Corn Crop Canopy
Two radiative transfer canopy models, SAIL and the two-layer Markov-Chain Canopy Reflectance Model (MCRM), were coupled with in situ leaf optical properties to simulate canopy-level spectral band ratio vegetation indices with the focus on the photochemical reflectance index in a cornfield. In situ hyperspectral measurements were made at both leaf and canopy levels. Leaf optical properties were obtained from both sunlit and shaded leaves. Canopy reflectance was acquired for eight different relative azimuth angles (psi) at three different view zenith angles (Theta (sub v)), and later used to validate model outputs. Field observations of photochemical reflectance index (PRI) for sunlit leaves exhibited lower values than shaded leaves, indicating higher light stress. Canopy PRI expressed obvious sensitivity to viewing geometry, as a function of both Theta (sub v) and psi . Overall, simulations from MCRM exhibited better agreements with in situ values than SAIL. When using only sunlit leaves as input, the MCRM-simulated PRI values showed satisfactory correlation and RMSE, as compared to in situ values. However, the performance of the MCRM model was significantly improved after defining a lower canopy layer comprised of shaded leaves beneath the upper sunlit leaf layer. Four other widely used band ratio vegetation indices were also studied and compared with the PRI results. MCRM simulations were able to generate satisfactory simulations for these other four indices when using only sunlit leaves as input; but unlike PRI, adding shaded leaves did not improve the performance of MCRM. These results support the hypothesis that the PRI is sensitive to physiological dynamics while the others detect static factors related to canopy structure. Sensitivity analysis was performed on MCRM in order to better understand the effects of structure related parameters on the PRI simulations. Leaf area index (LAI) showed the most significant impact on MCRM-simulated PRI among the parameters studied. This research shows the importance of hyperspectral and narrow band sensor studies, and especially the necessity of including the green wavelengths (e.g., 531 nm) on satellites proposing to monitor carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems.
Discrete Random Media Techniques for Microwave Modeling of Vegetated Terrain
Microwave remote sensing of agricultural crops and forested regions is studied. Long term goals of the research involve modeling vegetation so that radar signatures can be used to infer the parameters which characterize the vegetation and underlying ground. Vegetation is modeled by discrete scatterers viz, leaves, stems, branches and trunks. These are replaced by glossy dielectric discs and cylinders. Rough surfaces are represented by their mean and spectral characteristics. Average scattered power is then calculated by employing discrete random media methodology such as the distorted Born approximation or transport theory. Both coherent and incoherent multiple scattering techniques are explored. Once direct methods are developed, inversion techniques can be investigated.
Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks
Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.
Community Input on the Need, Scope, and Development Roadmap of a Proposed National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crops Center (NVBBCC)
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) was awarded a pilot project in FY22 under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biopreparedness Research Virtual Environment (BRaVE) initiative, to define research priorities, needs, and requirements for a national virtual center devoted to the biosecurity of bioenergy crops. The mission of the proposed center, referred to as the National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crop Center (NVBBCC), would be to provide the scientific basis and tools to detect, characterize, model, and mitigate biothreats to bioenergy crops. This function will be essential to ensure the projected increased US reliance over the next few decades on key plant-based energy products, such as biojet fuel. The NVBBCC is envisioned as a distributed, virtual center with multiple national laboratories at its core to maximize the use of existing unique facilities and expertise across the DOE complex. A major goal of the pilot project was to develop a roadmap for establishing NVBBCC through a series of meetings to gather community input. A total of about 150 individuals, drawn from DOE laboratories, the USDA, academia, NIH, DHS and the private sector participated in six planning meetings held in FY23. Four of the meetings were focused on specific research topics (disease detection, dispersion and disease propagation, biomolecular characterization of plant-pathogen interaction, and mitigation strategies). These four meetings were followed by a meeting that focused on computational needs to support collaborative, data-intensive research within a distributed center as well as workforce development. A final meeting focused on establishing and maintaining preparedness within NVBBCC to respond to an emerging disease within bioenergy crops and how it would collaborate and coordinate with USDA and DHS.
An Empirical Bayes Approach to Spatial Analysis
Multi-channel LANDSAT data are collected in several passes over agricultural areas during the growing season. How empirical Bayes modeling can be used to develop crop identification and discrimination techniques that account for spatial correlation in such data is considered. The approach models the unobservable parameters and the data separately, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the bulk of spatial correlation lies in the parameter process. The problem is then framed in terms of estimating posterior probabilities of crop types for each spatial area. Some empirical Bayes spatial estimation methods are used to estimate the logits of these probabilities.
Crop Characteristics Research: Growth and Reflectance Analysis
Much of the early research in remote sensing follows along developing spectral signatures of cover types. It was found, however, that a signature from an unknown cover class could not always be matched to a catalog value of known cover class. This approach was abandoned and supervised classification schemes followed. These were not efficient and required extensive training. It was obvious that data acquired at a single time could not separate cover types. A large portion of the proposed research has concentrated on modeling the temporal behavior of agricultural crops and on removing the need for any training data in remote sensing surveys; the key to which is the solution of the so-called 'signature extension' problem. A clear need to develop spectral estimaters of crop ontogenic stages and yield has existed even though various correlations have been developed. Considerable effort in developing techniques to estimate these variables was devoted to this work. The need to accurately evaluate existing canopy reflectance model(s), improve these models, use them to understand the crop signatures, and estimate leaf area index was the third objective of the proposed work. A synopsis of this research effort is discussed.