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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real-Time State Estimation of Structural Modes for an Aeroelastic Wind Tunnel Model

A method is presented for estimating displacements, velocities, and accelerations of structural modes in generalized coordinates from measured sensor data in real time. Specifically, strain data from conventional strain gauges and fiber optic strain sensors (FOSS) were combined with the strain modes (obtained from a finite element model) in a least-squares estimator to produce structural mode displacement estimates and uncertainties. Likewise, accelerometer data were combined with displacement mode shapes in a second least-squares estimator to produce structural mode acceleration estimates. A Kalman filter was then used to refine the displacement estimates and obtain velocity estimates. The method was applied to the half-span wind tunnel test article used in the NASA-Boeing collaboration called the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) project. The technique was found to be useful for real-time control and system identification applications.

Jared A. Grauer↗
NASA NTRS1994

Timing behavior of 96 radio pulsars

We present results from observations of 104 pulsars made between 1989 August and 1993 April, including timing solutions for 96 of them. Pulse profiles were recorded at four frequencies in the range 0.4-1.64 GHz, yielding topocentric pulse arrival times with uncertainties of order 10(exp -3) periods. Models fitted to the timing data yield accurate positions, periods, period derivatives, and dispersion measures for each pulsar. Nine of the measured period derivatives are new, and most of the parameters represent improvements upon previous measurements. In a few cases we correct some erroneous parameter values from the published literature. A glitch was observed in the PSR B1800-21 pulse arrival times, and we fit a simple exponential model to the post-glitch recovery. We present graphs of the observed pulse shapes and their evolution with frequency, a table of measured pulase widths, and quantitative estimates of the long-term timing stability of each pulsar.

Arzoumanian, Z.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development of a Modeling Framework to Support Control Investigations of Sailcraft Missions A First Cut: ABLE Sailcraft Dynamics Model

Solar Sailcraft, the stuff of dreams of the H.G. Wells generation, is now a rapidly maturing reality. The promise of unlimited propulsive power by harnessing stellar radiation is close to realization. Currently, efforts are underway to build, prototype and test two configurations. These sails are designed to meet a 20m sail requirement, under guidance of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) technology program office at MSFC. While these sails will not fly , they are the first steps in improving our understanding of the processes and phenomena at work. As part of the New Millennium Program (NMP) the ST9 technology validation mission hopes to launch and fly a solar sail by 2010 or sooner. Though the Solar Sail community has been studying and validating various concepts over two decades, it was not until recent breakthroughs in structural and material technology, has made possible to build sails that could be launched. With real sails that can be tested (albeit under earth conditions), the real task of engineering a viable spacecraft has finally commenced. Since it is not possible to accurately or practically recreate the actual operating conditions of the sailcraft (zero-G, vacuum and extremely low temperatures), much of the work has focused on developing accurate models that can be used to predict behavior in space, and for sails that are 6-10 times the size of currently existing sails. Since these models can be validated only with real test data under "earth" conditions, the process of modeling and the identification of uncertainty due to model assumptions and scope need to be closely considered. Sailcraft models that exist currently, are primarily focused on detailed physical representations at the component level, these are intended to support prototyping efforts. System level models that cut across different sail configurations and control concepts while maintaining a consistent approach are non-existent. Much effort has been focused on the areas of thrust performance, solar radiation prediction, and sail membrane behavior vis-a-vis their reflective geometry, such as wrinkling/folding/furling as it pertains to thrust prediction. A parallel effort has been conducted on developing usable models for developing attitude control systems (ACS), for different sail configurations in different regimes. There has been very little by way of a system wide exploration of the impact of the various control schemes, thrust prediction models for different sail configurations being considered.

Sarathy, Sriprakash↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observations of the Li, Be, and B Isotopes and Constraints on Cosmic-ray Propagation

The abundance of Li, Be, and B isotopes in galactic cosmic rays (GCR) between E=50-200 MeV/nucleon has been observed by the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on NASA's ACE mission since 1997 with high statistical accuracy. Precise observations of Li, Be, B can be used to constrain GCR propagation models. We find that a diffusive reacceleration model with parameters that best match CRIS results (e.g. B/C, Li/C, etc) are also consistent with other GCR observations. A approx. 15-20% overproduction of Li and Be in the model predictions is attributed to uncertainties in the production cross-section data. The latter becomes a significant limitation to the study of rare GCR species that are generated predominantly via spallation.

deNolfo, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of the Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) with Ice Crystal Cloud Ingestion at Simulated Altitudes: Public Version

The Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE), a research version of a turbofan engine that never entered production, was tested in the NASA Propulsion System Laboratory (PSL), an altitude test facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL is a facility that is equipped with water spray bars capable of producing an ice cloud consisting of ice particles, having a controlled particle diameter and concentration in the air flow. In preparation for testing of the HURE, numerical analysis of flow and ice particle thermodynamics was performed on the compression system of the turbofan engine to predict operating conditions that could potentially result in a risk of ice accretion due to ice crystal ingestion. The results of those analyses formed the basis of the test matrix. The goal of the test matrix was to have ice accrete in two regions of the compression system: region one, which consists of the fan-stator through the inlet guide vane (IGV), and region two which is the first stator within the high pressure compressor. The predictive analyses were performed with the mean line compressor flow modeling code (COMDES-MELT) which includes an ice particle model. Together these comprise a one-dimensional icing tool. The HURE engine was tested in PSL with the ice cloud over the range of operating conditions of altitude, ambient temperature, simulated flight Mach number, and fan speed with guidance from the analytical predictions. The engine was fitted with video cameras at strategic locations within the engine compression system flow path where ice was predicted to accrete, in order to visually confirm ice accretion when it occurred. In addition, traditional compressor instrumentation such as total pressure and temperature probes, static pressure taps, and metal temperature thermocouples were installed in targeted areas where the risk of ice accretion was expected. The current research focuses on the analysis of the data that was obtained after testing the HURE engine in PSL with ice crystal ingestion. The computational method was enhanced by computing key parameters through the fan-stator at multiple spanwise locations, in order to increase the fidelity with the current mean-line method. In addition, other sources of heat (non-adiabatic walls) were suspected to be the cause of accretion near the splitter-lip and shroud. Since there were no thermocouples near the splitter, a simple order of magnitude heat transfer model was implemented to estimate the wall temperature. Future analyses will require a higher fidelity thermal analysis of the compression system metal walls to accurately calculate the total heat flux to the ice particle. For many data points analyzed, there were differences between the thermodynamic system model and the measured test data that may partially be responsible for uncertainties with the results of the current analyses.

Turbomachinery↗
NASA NTRS1986

A history of presatellite investigations of the earth's radiation budget

The history of radiation budget studies from the early twentieth century to the advent of the space age is reviewed. By the beginning of the 1960's, accurate radiative models had been developed capable of estimating the global and zonally averaged components of the radiation budget, though great uncertainty in the derived parameters existed due to inaccuracy of the data describing the physical parameters used in the model, associated with clouds, the solar radiation, and the gaseous atmospheric absorbers. Over the century, the planetary albedo estimates had reduced from 89 to 30 percent.

Hunt, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Datta, Koushik↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Vacuum Test Correlation of a Zero Propellant Load Case Thermal Capacitance Propellant Gauging Analytical Model

This thesis describes the development and correlation of a thermal model that forms the foundation of a thermal capacitance spacecraft propellant load estimator. Specific details of creating the thermal model for the diaphragm propellant tank used on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft using ANSYS and the correlation process implemented are presented. The thermal model was correlated to within plus or minus 3 degrees Celsius of the thermal vacuum test data, and was determined sufficient to make future propellant predictions on MMS. The model was also found to be relatively sensitive to uncertainties in applied heat flux and mass knowledge of the tank. More work is needed to improve temperature predictions in the upper hemisphere of the propellant tank where predictions were found to be 2 to 2.5 C lower than the test data. A road map for applying the model to predict propellant loads on the actual MMS spacecraft toward its end of life in 2017-2018 is also presented.

Gauging↗
NASA NTRS1973

Satellite ultraviolet measurements of nitric oxide fluorescence with a diffusive transport model.

Twilight measurements of fluorescence in the (1, 0) gamma band of nitric oxide were made from June 1967 to January 1969 by an ultraviolet scanning spectrometer on board the polar orbiting satellite Ogo 4. Nitric oxide vertical column emission rates were measured between solar zenith angles of 93 and 98 deg. Seasonal and latitudinal variations were found to be less than a factor of 1.3, the scatter and uncertainty in the data prohibiting more precise determinations from being made. Time independent chemical diffusion models for the vertical distribution of nitric oxide agree well with profiles measured from sounding rockets. The column emission rates calculated from the theoretical models are larger than the satellite measurements by a factor of 3.

Rusch, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of the Quality of the Version 1.07 Temperature-Versus-Pressure Profiles of the Middle Atmosphere from TIMED/SABER

The quality of the retrieved temperature-versus-pressure (or T(p)) profiles is described for the middle atmosphere for the publicly available Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Version 1.07 (V1.07) data set. The primary sources of systematic error for the SABER results below about 70 km are (1) errors in the measured radiances, (2) biases in the forward model, and (3) uncertainties in the corrections for ozone and in the determination of the reference pressure for the retrieved profiles. Comparisons with other correlative data sets indicate that SABER T(p) is too high by 1-3 K in the lower stratosphere but then too low by 1 K near the stratopause and by 2 K in the middle mesosphere. There is little difference between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) algorithm results below about 70 km from V1.07 and V1.06, but there are substantial improvements/differences for the non-LTE results of V1.07 for the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) region. In particular, the V1.07 algorithm uses monthly, diurnally averaged CO2 profiles versus latitude from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. This change has improved the consistency of the character of the tides in its kinetic temperature (T(sub k)). The T(sub k) profiles agree with UMLT values obtained from ground-based measurements of column-averaged OH and O2 emissions and of the Na lidar returns, at least within their mutual uncertainties. SABER T(sub k) values obtained near the mesopause with its daytime algorithm also agree well with the falling sphere climatology at high northern latitudes in summer. It is concluded that the SABER data set can be the basis for improved, diurnal-to-interannual-scale temperatures for the middle atmosphere and especially for its UMLT region.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗
NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A classification procedure for the effective management of changes during the maintenance process

During software operation, maintainers are often faced with numerous change requests. Given available resources such as effort and calendar time, changes, if approved, have to be planned to fit within budget and schedule constraints. In this paper, we address the issue of assessing the difficulty of a change based on known or predictable data. This paper should be considered as a first step towards the construction of customized economic models for maintainers. In it, we propose a modeling approach, based on regular statistical techniques, that can be used in a variety of software maintenance environments. The approach can be easily automated, and is simple for people with limited statistical experience to use. Moreover, it deals effectively with the uncertainty usually associated with both model inputs and outputs. The modeling approach is validated on a data set provided by NASA/GSFC which shows it was effective in classifying changes with respect to the effort involved in implementing them. Other advantages of the approach are discussed along with additional steps to improve the results.

Briand, Lionel C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Venusian hydrology: Steady state reconsidered

In 1987, Grinspoon proposed that the data on hydrogen abundance, isotopic composition, and escape rate were consistent with the hypothesis that water on Venus might be in steady state rather than monotonic decline since the dawn of time. This conclusion was partially based on a derived water lifetime against nonthermal escape of approximately 10(exp 8) yr. De Bergh et al., preferring the earlier Pioneer Venus value of 200 ppm water to the significantly lower value detected by Bezard et al., found H2O lifetimes of greater than 10(exp 9) yr. Donahue and Hodges derived H2O lifetimes of 0.4-5 x 10 (exp 9) yr. Both these analyses used estimates of H escape flux between 0.4 x 10(exp 7) and 1 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from Rodriguez et al. Yet in more recent Monte Carlo modeling, Hodges and Tinsley found an escape flux due to charge exchange with hot H(+) of 2.8 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). McElroy et al. estimated an escape flux of 8 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from collisions with hot O produced by dissociative recombination of O2(+). Brace et al. estimated an escape flux of 5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from ion escape from the ionotail of Venus. The combined estimated escape flux from all these processes is approximately 4 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). The most sophisticated analysis to date of near-IR radiation from Venus' nightside reveals a water mixing ratio of approximately 30 ppm, suggesting a lifetime against escape for water of less than 10(exp 8) yr. Large uncertainties remain in these quantities, yet the data point toward a steady state. Further evaluation of these uncertainties, and new evolutionary modeling incorporating estimates of the outgassing rate from post-Magellan estimates of the volcanic resurfacing rate are presented.

Grinspoon, David H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The effect of modeling dose uncertainty on low-boom community noise dose-response curves

In logistic dose-response modeling, failing to account for uncertainty in estimated doses can cause an artificial flattening or attenuation of the slope of the summary curve. In Lee et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 147(4), pp. 2222-2234 (2020)], data from two NASA low-amplitude sonic boom community noise survey tests were modeled using a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression (MLR) statistical model that assumed there was no uncertainty in the noise dose estimates. However, in these community tests, the noise dose uncertainty was estimated by Page et al. [NASA/CR-2014-218180 and NASA/CR-2020-220589/Volume I] using a leave-one-out method. In the current work, a term was added to extend the Bayesian MLR model to account for the estimated noise dose uncertainty quantified in the Page et al. analyses. This uncertainty term was included in two ways, either as classical or as Berkson uncertainty, and yield similar results. When the uncertainty is accounted for in the Bayesian MLR model, the dose-response curves become 5-10% steeper, but the difference in the noise dose that elicits a 5% highly annoyed response is small (less than 1 dB). This result is encouraging for future X-59 community tests whose survey area will be sparsely populated with noise monitors.

X-59↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗