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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remaining Useful Strength (RUS) Prediction of SiCf-SiCm Composite Materials Using Deep Learning and Acoustic Emission

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-Assisted Quality Pattern Identification in Finance

Short-term patterns in financial time series form the cornerstone of many algorithmic trading strategies, yet extracting these patterns reliably from noisy market data remains a formidable challenge. In this paper, we propose an entropy-assisted framework for identifying high-quality, non-overlapping patterns that exhibit consistent behavior over time. We ground our approach in the premise that historical patterns, when accurately clustered and pruned, can yield substantial predictive power for short-term price movements. To achieve this, we incorporate an entropy-based measure as a proxy for information gain: patterns that lead to high one-sided movements in historical data yet retain low local entropy are more “informative” in signaling future market direction. Compared to conventional clustering techniques such as K-means and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), which often yield biased or unbalanced groupings, our approach emphasizes balance over a forced visual boundary, ensuring that quality patterns are not lost due to over-segmentation. By emphasizing both predictive purity (low local entropy) and historical profitability, our method achieves a balanced representation of Buy and Sell patterns, making it better suited for short-term algorithmic trading strategies. This paper offers an in-depth illustration of our entropy-assisted framework through two case studies on Gold vs. USD and GBPUSD. While these examples demonstrate the method’s potential for extracting high-quality patterns, they do not constitute an exhaustive survey of all possible asset classes.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laboratory Calibrations of Fe xii–xiv Line-Intensity Ratios for Electron Density Diagnostics

In this work, we have used an electron beam ion trap to measure electron-density-diagnostic line-intensity ratios for extreme ultraviolet lines from Fe xii, xiii, and xiv at wavelengths of ≈185–205 and 255–276 Å. These ratios can be used as density diagnostics for astrophysical spectra and are especially relevant to solar physics. We found that density diagnostics using the Fe xiii 196.53/202.04 and the Fe xiv 264.79/274.21 and 270.52A/274.21 line ratios are reliable using the atomic data calculated with the Flexible Atomic Code (FAC). On the other hand, we found a large discrepancy between the FAC theory and experiment for the commonly used Fe xii (186.85 + 186.88)/195.12 line ratio. These FAC theory calculations give results similar to the data tabulated in CHIANTI, which are commonly used to analyze solar observations. Our results suggest that the discrepancies seen between solar coronal density measurements using the Fe xii (186.85 + 186.88)/195.12 and Fe xiii 196.54/202.04 line ratios are likely due to issues with the atomic calculations for Fe xii.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

DSCOVR/EPIC-derived global hourly and daily downward shortwave and photosynthetically active radiation data at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

Downward shortwave radiation (SW) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play crucial roles in Earth system dynamics. Spaceborne remote sensing techniques provide a unique means for mapping accurate spatiotemporally continuous SW–PAR, globally. However, any individual polar-orbiting or geostationary satellite cannot satisfy the desired high temporal resolution (sub-daily) and global coverage simultaneously, while integrating and fusing multisource data from complementary satellites/sensors is challenging because of co-registration, intercalibration, near real-time data delivery and the effects of discrepancies in orbital geometry. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on board the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), launched in February 2015, offers an unprecedented possibility to bridge the gap between high temporal resolution and global coverage and characterize the diurnal cycles of SW–PAR globally. In this study, we adopted a suite of well-validated data-driven machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR, from June 2015 to June 2019, based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. The derived products have high temporal resolution (hourly) and medium spatial resolution (0.1°×0.1°), and they include estimates of the direct and diffuse components of SW–PAR. We used independently widely distributed ground station data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program to evaluate the performance of our products, and we further analyzed and compared the spatiotemporal characteristics of the derived products with the benchmarking Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Synoptic (CERES) data. We found both the hourly and daily products to be consistent with ground-based observations (e.g., hourly and daily total SWs have low biases of -3.96 and -0.71 W m -2 and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 103.50 and 35.40 W m -2 , respectively). The developed products capture the complex spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly, and seasonal variations in SW–PAR when compared to CERES data. They provide a reliable and valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications worldwide and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes at various spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing alloys with process-mapping AI pre-trained on empirical knowledge

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Accelerated materials design should match the recent trends in the product development cycles. Materials data analytics can be used to significantly shorten development time of specialized alloys needed for next generation energy applications. However, it faces a challenge of scarce data available for training ML models. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into deep-learning graph structure via fuzzy pre-training and causal process imitation presents a viable approach to developing accurate data-driven models and reliable alloy design tools, with limited datasets. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was used in this study to incorporate such knowledge in the domain-specific computational tool, pyroMind. The tool provides not only novel design ideas but also their interpretation via physics and engineering concepts.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-informed, empirically constrained machine learning for designing Fe-9Cr alloys

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Materials data analytics can be used to significantly shorten development time of specialized alloys needed for next generation energy applications. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into deep-learning graph structure via fuzzy pre-training and causal process imitation presents a viable approach to developing accurate data-driven models and reliable alloy design tools, with limited datasets. It was demonstrated that the domain knowledge-based empirical constraints not only inhibit overfitting but also allow training more accurate and reliable ML models with improved transparency of the output interpretation. In this study, alloy tensile properties were interpreted with three competing virtual-microstructure models.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗
DOE OSTI2022

MODELING AND PARAMETRIC STUDY OF END-GAS AUTOIGNITION TO ALLOW THE REALIZATION OF ULTRA-LOW EMISSIONS, HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAVY-DUTY SPARK-IGNITED NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline-quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its Methane Number (MN), which is analogous to the Octane Number for liquid SI fuels, can span from 65 to 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI NG engines must be designed to operate at high Brake Mean Effective Pressures (BMEP), near or beyond knock limits, over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding of the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and End-Gas Autoignition (EGAI), i.e., the autoignition of the unburned gas (end gas) ahead of the flame front. However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI NG engine efficiency by increasing the combustion rate and the total fraction of burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds characteristic of natural gas fuels, which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, to realize diesel-like efficiencies and ultra-low emissions on SI NG engines, this work proposes the study of the main parameters influencing the modeling and prediction of NG EGAI to allow for its control. In this work, a novel EGAI detection and onset determination method was developed to reliably quantify EGAI for data analysis and engine control. The new method allowed the prediction of EGAI on SI NG engines without the need to use engine- and operating-condition-dependent thresholds and reduced the error in quantifying the fraction of the total energy released by the EGAI event by up to 40%pts. One- and three-dimensional engine models were then developed to study the engine/fuel interactions that lead to NG EGAI and its performance benefits. These models, although having decent agreement with experimental data, showed the need to account for NOx chemistry when predicting NG EGAI due to a consistently later prediction of the EGAI onset (~1.65 crank-angle degrees) and thus, a new reduced chemical mechanism for real NG fuels was developed containing NOx chemistry. The new reduced mechanism improved the EGAI onset prediction agreement to within ±0.5 crank-angle degrees and decreased simulation time during combustion by nearly 50% when using the further reduced AREIS50NOx chemical mechanism. These models were then used to study the role of NG composition on EGAI, evaluate the engine/fuel interactions leading to NG EGAI, and perform engine optimization while leveraging EGAI to increase thermal efficiency. Piston design optimization combined with a Controlled EGAI (C-EGAI) combustion mode allowed a Heavy-Duty (HD) SI NG engine to operate at diesel-like efficiencies, i.e., Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) ≥44%. Experimental and modeling data analysis revealed that earlier and faster heat release increases combustion efficiency by an average of 1%pts, increases work transferred to the piston resulting in a decrease in exhaust losses by 50% depending on the engine operating condition while slightly increasing heat losses. Finally, the simulation results revealed an opportunity to further enhance the BTE (up to 50%) by enabling C-EGAI combustion at leaner conditions, λ=1.4-1.6.

Bestel, Diego Bernardi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Photovaltaics Durability and Resilience - A Win-Win

Solar photovoltaics (PV) will play a crucial role in decarbonizing the electrical grid and limit the effects of detrimental climate change. Long lifetimes of PV installations are a win-win situation, as it not only reduces carbon emissions directly through avoidance of fossil fuel emissions but also indirectly, as it reduces the demand of needed materials and potentially recycling. However, during their decades-long lifetime expectations installations are also more commonly exposed to extreme weather events. Building durable solar system to withstand extreme weather events is essential in the electrification of the economy and will save lives, particularly when they power critical infrastructure such as hospitals. As more PV is installed in regions prone to extreme weather events, high-quality materials, installation and monitoring practices can mitigate risk. Evaluating resilience requires combined computational, analytical, and experimental capabilities that are best leveraged by teams working across multiple disciplines.

durability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concurrent multi-peak Bragg coherent x-ray diffraction imaging of 3D nanocrystal lattice displacement via global optimization

Abstract In this paper we demonstrated a method to reconstruct vector-valued lattice distortion fields within nanoscale crystals by optimization of a forward model of multi-reflection Bragg coherent diffraction imaging (MR-BCDI) data. The method flexibly accounts for geometric factors that arise when making BCDI measurements, is amenable to efficient inversion with modern optimization toolkits, and allows for globally constraining a single image reconstruction to multiple Bragg peak measurements. This is enabled by a forward model that emulates the multiple Bragg peaks of a MR-BCDI experiment from a single estimate of the 3D crystal sample. We present this forward model, we implement it within the stochastic gradient descent optimization framework, and we demonstrate it with simulated and experimental data of nanocrystals with inhomogeneous internal lattice displacement. We find that utilizing a global optimization approach to MR-BCDI affords a reliable path to convergence of data which is otherwise challenging to reconstruct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

An iterative method to deblend AGN-Host contributions for Integral Field spectroscopic observations

ABSTRACT We present a new iterative deblending method to separate the host galaxy (HG) and their Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) emission with the use of Integral Field spectroscopic (IFS) data. The method decomposes the resolved HG emission from the unresolved AGN emission by modelling the two-dimensional surface brightness (SB) profile of the point-spread function (PSF) and the two-dimensional SB HG continuum simultaneously per each monochromatic slide. Our method does not require any prior information about the observed SB profile or a detailed fitting of the PSF, making it ideal for the automatic analysis of large galaxy samples. In this work, we test the quality of our method, its advantages, and its disadvantages. We test our method by using a set of IFS mock data cubes to quantify the reliability of our deblending process and further compare our method with the qdblend3d analysis tool. Furthermore, we applied our method to three data cubes selected from the MaNGA survey according to the dominance of either its HG or its AGN. We show that our deblending method is capable of disengaging the bright, non-resolved AGN emission from the HG continuum and its narrow emission lines. However, the decoupling depends on how well the IFS spatially resolves the PSF, and on the relative flux intensity of the HG-AGN. Therefore, the method is ideal for disentangling the bright-flux contribution from AGN-dominated spectra.

Ibarra-Medel, H. (ORCID:0000000297906313)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating uncertainty: A Bayesian approach to modelling photosynthesis in C3 leaves

The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model is extensively used to model pho-tosynthesis from gas exchange measurements. Since its publication, many methods have been developed to measure, or more accurately estimate, parameters of this model. Here, we have created a tool that uses Bayesian statistics to fit photosyn-thetic parameters using concurrent gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence mea-surements whilst evaluating the reliability of the parameter estimation. We have tested this tool on synthetic data and experimental data from rice leaves. Our results indicate that reliable parameter estimation can be achieved whilst only keeping one parameter, Km, that is, Michaelis constant for CO2 by Rubisco, prefixed. Additionally, we show that including detailed low CO2 measurements at low light levels increases reliability and suggests this as a new standard measurement protocol. By providing an estimated distribution of parameter values, the tool can be used to evaluate the quality of data from gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurement proto-cols. Compared to earlier model fitting methods, the use of a Bayesian statistics-based tool minimizes human interaction during fitting, reducing the subjectivity which is essential to most existing tools. A user friendly, interactive Bayesian tool script is provided.

Bayesian statistics, leaf photosynthesis, mesophyl↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Approach to Ancillary PV Component Reliability Assessment (Final Report)

In this project, we have established a nondestructive, generalized methodology that (1) fuses rich field data with advanced ML for proactive reliability forecasting, (2) dramatically reduces experimental iterations via synthetic dataset generation, and (3) achieves unprecedented regression precision in both anomaly detection and component-level degradation assessment—paving the way for truly predictive maintenance of grid-tied PV inverters under diverse outdoor conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the interplay between distributed wind generators and solar photovoltaic systems

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind and solar energy generation across the continental United States, focusing on energy availability, reliability, variability, and cooperation. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyze the performance of wind turbines and photovoltaic systems, revealing distinct patterns in energy production and reliability. The classification of wind and solar zones based on energy availability and reliability provides valuable insights for renewable energy planning and grid integration strategies. Overall, this methodology contributes to understanding wind and solar interactions, which will lead to informing effective renewable energy deployment and grid integration efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud-based Testbed for Adaptive Under-Frequency Load Shedding with High DER Penetration

Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources and behind-the-meter renewables may soon disrupt the efficacy of critical protection schemes, such as under-frequency load shedding (UFLS). Improved data exchange and coordination across the transmission-distribution boundary will be required to maintain reliability of bulk electric system. Standards-based data integration platforms using agreed-upon semantic vocabularies, such as the Common Information Model, will be key to enabling adaptive protection schemes requiring synthesized data from both the bulk power system and behind-the-meter resources. This paper introduces a cloud-based open-source data integration environment and UFLS clustering algorithm being developed to enable adaptive relay coordination between transmission and distribution utilities in the state of Vermont.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural network uncertainty quantification for LArTPC reconstruction

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural networks with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainty and robust performance against overconfidence and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are critical for their full deployment in analyzing experimental data. While numerous UQ methods have been tested on simple datasets, performance evaluations for more complex tasks and datasets are scarce. Here we assess the application of selected deep learning UQ methods on the task of particle classification using the PiLArNet monte carlo 3D LArTPC point cloud dataset. We observe that UQ methods not only allow for better rejection of prediction mistakes and OOD detection, but also generally achieve higher overall accuracy across different task settings. We assess the precision of uncertainty quantification using different evaluation metrics, such as distributional separation of prediction entropy across correctly and incorrectly identified samples, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and expected calibration error from observed empirical accuracy. We conclude that ensembling methods can obtain well calibrated classification probabilities and generally perform better than other existing methods in deep learning UQ literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the synthesizability of crystalline inorganic materials from the data of known material compositions

Abstract Reliably identifying synthesizable inorganic crystalline materials is an unsolved challenge required for realizing autonomous materials discovery. In this work, we develop a deep learning synthesizability model ( SynthNN ) that leverages the entire space of synthesized inorganic chemical compositions. By reformulating material discovery as a synthesizability classification task, SynthNN identifies synthesizable materials with 7× higher precision than with DFT-calculated formation energies. In a head-to-head material discovery comparison against 20 expert material scientists, SynthNN outperforms all experts, achieves 1.5× higher precision and completes the task five orders of magnitude faster than the best human expert. Remarkably, without any prior chemical knowledge, our experiments indicate that SynthNN learns the chemical principles of charge-balancing, chemical family relationships and ionicity, and utilizes these principles to generate synthesizability predictions. The development of SynthNN will allow for synthesizability constraints to be seamlessly integrated into computational material screening workflows to increase their reliability for identifying synthetically accessible materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗