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At least 433 records · Page 24

Powdery mildew effectors AVR A1 and BEC1016 target the ER J‐domain protein Hv ERdj3B required for immunity in barley

Abstract The barley powdery mildew fungus, Blumeria hordei (Bh), secretes hundreds of candidate secreted effector proteins (CSEPs) to facilitate pathogen infection and colonization. One of these, CSEP0008, is directly recognized by the barley nucleotide‐binding leucine‐rich‐repeat (NLR) receptor MLA1 and therefore is designated AVR A1 . Here, we show that AVR A1 and the sequence‐unrelated Bh effector BEC1016 (CSEP0491) suppress immunity in barley. We used yeast two‐hybrid next‐generation interaction screens (Y2H‐NGIS), followed by binary Y2H and in planta protein–protein interactions studies, and identified a common barley target of AVR A1 and BEC1016, the endoplasmic reticulum (ER)‐localized J‐domain protein Hv ERdj3B. Silencing of this ER quality control (ERQC) protein increased Bh penetration. Hv ERdj3B is ER luminal, and we showed using split GFP that AVR A1 and BEC1016 translocate into the ER signal peptide‐independently. Overexpression of the two effectors impeded trafficking of a vacuolar marker through the ER; silencing of Hv ERdj3B also exhibited this same cellular phenotype, coinciding with the effectors targeting this ERQC component. Together, these results suggest that the barley innate immunity, preventing Bh entry into epidermal cells, requires ERQC. Here, the J‐domain protein Hv ERdj3B appears to be essential and can be regulated by AVR A1 and BEC1016. Plant disease resistance often occurs upon direct or indirect recognition of pathogen effectors by host NLR receptors. Previous work has shown that AVR A1 is directly recognized in the cytosol by the immune receptor MLA1. We speculate that the AVR A1 J‐domain target being inside the ER, where it is inapproachable by NLRs, has forced the plant to evolve this challenging direct recognition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerodynamics of the Mars Microprobe Entry Vehicles

The selection of the unique aeroshell shape for the Mars Microprobes is discussed. A description of its aerodynamics in hypersonic rarefied, hypersonic continuum, supersonic and transonic flow regimes is then presented. This description is based on Direct Simulation Monte Carlo analyses in the rarefied-flow regime, thermochemical nonequilibrium Computational Fluid Dynamics in the hypersonic regime, existing wind tunnel data in the supersonic and transonic regime, additional computational work in the transonic regime, and finally, ballistic range data. The aeroshell is shown to possess the correct combination of aerodynamic stability and drag to convert the probe's initial tumbling attitude and high velocity at atmospheric-interface into the desired surface-impact orientation and velocity.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗

Magnetic-Field-Tunable Superconducting Rectifier

Superconducting electronic components have been developed that provide current rectification that is tunable by design and with an externally applied magnetic field to the circuit component. The superconducting material used in the device is relatively free of pinning sites with its critical current determined by a geometric energy barrier to vortex entry. The ability of the vortices to move freely inside the device means this innovation does not suffer from magnetic hysteresis effects changing the state of the superconductor. The invention requires a superconductor geometry with opposite edges along the direction of current flow. In order for the critical current asymmetry effect to occur, the device must have different vortex nucleation conditions at opposite edges. Alternative embodiments producing the necessary conditions include edges being held at different temperatures, at different local magnetic fields, with different current-injection geometries, and structural differences between opposite edges causing changes in the size of the geometric energy barrier. An edge fabricated with indentations of the order of the coherence length will significantly lower the geometric energy barrier to vortex entry, meaning vortex passage across the device at lower currents causing resistive dissipation. The existing prototype is a two-terminal device consisting of a thin-film su - perconducting strip operating at a temperature below its superconducting transition temperature (Tc). Opposite ends of the strip are connected to electrical leads made of a higher Tc superconductor. The thin-film lithographic process provides an easy means to alter edge-structures, current-injection geo - metries, and magnetic-field conditions at the edges. The edge-field conditions can be altered by using local field(s) generated from dedicated higher Tc leads or even using the device s own higher Tc superconducting leads.

Sadleir, John E.↗

Mars Solar Balloon Landed Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer

A Mars surface lander Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) is described to measure the chemical composition of abundant and trace volatile species and isotope ratios for noble gases and other elements. These measurements are relevant to the study of atmospheric evolution and past climatic conditions. A Micromission plan is under study where a surface package including a miniaturized GCMS would be delivered to the surface by a solar heated hot air balloon based system. The balloon system would be deployed about 8 km above the surface of Mars, wherein it would rapidly fill with Martian atmosphere and be heated quickly by the sun. The combined buoyancy and parachuting effects of the solar balloon result in a surface package impact of about 5 m/sec. After delivery of the package to the surface, the balloon would ascend to about 4 km altitude, with imaging and magnetometry data being taken for the remainder of the daylight hours as the balloon is blown with the Martian winds. Total atmospheric entry mass of this mission is estimated to be approximately 50 kg, and it can fit as an Ariane 5 piggyback payload. The GCMS would obtain samples directly from the atmosphere at the surface and also from gases evolved from solid phase material collected from well below the surface with a Sample Acquisition and Transport Mechanism (SATM). The experiment envisioned in the Mars Micromission described would obtain samples from a much greater depth of up to one meter below the surface, and would search for organic molecules trapped in ancient stratified layers well below the oxidized surface. Insitu instruments on upcoming NASA missions working in concert with remote sensing measurement techniques have the potential to provide a more detailed investigation of mineralogy and the extent of simple volatiles such as CO2 and H2O in surface and subsurface solid phase materials. Within the context of subsequent mission opportunities such as those provided by the Ariane 5 piggyback payload based Micromissions, it is essential to implement an even broader chemical analysis and to enable a significant extension of previous isotope measurements. Such a development would enhance the presently very active study of questions of atmospheric evolution and loss and past climatic conditions. The method selected to implement this program can be based on well-established mass spectrometry techniques. Sampled gas is chemically and physically processed to separate the gas mixture into components using gas chromatograph and related enrichment techniques. This allows trace species to be identified and reveals isotopic distributions in many cases with improved precision. Samples of interest, such as organic molecules, may lie deep below the highly oxidized surface layer and the suggested program includes enhanced sampling techniques to measure volatiles preserved in solid phase material deep below the surface as well as gas from the well mixed atmosphere.

Mahaffy, P.↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Deep cytoplasmic rearrangements in axis-respecified Xenopus embryos

In fertilized eggs of the frog Xenopus, the vegetal yolk mass rotates away from the future dorsal side (J. P. Vincent and J. Gerhart, 1987, Dev. Biol. 123, 526-539), and a major rearrangement of the deep animal hemisphere cytoplasm produces a characteristic swirl in the prospective dorsal side (M. V. Danilchik and J. M. Denegre, 1991, Development 111, 845-856). The relationship between this swirl and determination of the dorsal-ventral axis was further investigated by attempting to experimentally separate the positions of the swirl and the dorsal-ventral axis. Eggs were obliquely oriented in the gravity field to respecify the direction of yolk mass rotation and the position of the dorsal-ventral axis. When yolk mass rotation occurred in the absence of a sperm, as in activated eggs, a swirl pattern formed on the side away from which the yolk mass had rotated. In fertilized eggs tipped with the sperm entry point (SEP) down or to the side, swirl patterns were always found to form on the side away from which the yolk mass was displaced. However, in eggs tipped SEP up, in which the yolk mass was forced to rotate away from the SEP, more complicated rearrangements were observed in addition to the rotation-oriented swirl. Because the direction of yolk mass rotation was found to be influenced by both gravity and the actual position of the SEP in obliquely oriented eggs (SEP to the side), such complicated rearrangement patterns may result from opposing forces generated by both yolk mass rotation and the expanding sperm aster. Thus, except in cases in which the influences of SEP position and unit gravity opposed each other, it was not possible to experimentally separate the position of the deep cytoplasmic swirl from the direction of yolk mass rotation, and therefore the position of the prospective dorsal side.

Non-NASA Center↗

Scalable Hyperpolarized MRI Enabled by Ace‐SABRE of [1‐ 13 C]Pyruvate

Abstract Hyperpolarized (HP) MRI using [1– 13 C]pyruvate is emerging as a promising molecular imaging approach. Among hyperpolarization methods, Signal Amplification By Reversible Exchange (SABRE) is attractive because SABRE polarizes the substrates directly in room‐temperature solutions avoiding complex hardware. Most SABRE experiments have historically been performed in methanol, a relatively toxic and difficult‐to‐remove solvent. Here we demonstrate the use of a 80/20 acetone/water (A/W) solvent system (Ace‐SABRE) to provide hyperpolarized [1– 13 C]pyruvate with up to 17% polarization, then implement a solvent processing protocol to achieve injectable solutions retaining 74% of the initial polarization, and lastly we demonstrate HP in vivo spectroscopy and imaging using the Ace‐SABRE platform to showcase metabolic tracking in a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tumor as well as HP‐MRI, both in direct comparison to dissolution dynamic nuclear polarization (d‐DNP) experiments. The Ace‐SABRE technique promises faster adoption of SABRE hyperpolarization in biological experiments, overall lowering the barriers to entry for HP‐NMR and HP‐MRI.

Chemistry↗

Visual display panel functions as computer input/output device

Display panel permits information entry and erasure using a probe, and has an inherent storage capability for use on time-shared systems. Data input need not be online. Other advantages include direct display of input and output, simplicity, and low fabrication cost.

Hilborn, E. H.↗

Mars global network mission

The status of a program aimed at placing a global network of small surface landers on Mars for direct surface and subsurface measurements is reviewed. A possible baseline mission concept to establish a global network is discussed with particular reference to mission and system requirements, lander entry design considerations, and orbit design. The principal lander subsystems are described, including attitude control, power, command and data handling, telecommunications, and thermal subsystems.

Mostert, R. N.↗

A study to determine methods of improving the subsonic performance of a proposed Personnel Launch System (PLS) concept

An investigation has been conducted in the Langley 7- by 10-Foot High Speed Wind Tunnel to determine the longitudinal and lateral directional aerodynamic characteristics of a series of personnel launch system concepts. This series of configurations evolved during an effort to improve the subsonic characteristics of a proposed lifting entry vehicle (designated the HL-20). The primary purpose of the overall investigation was to provide a vehicle concept which was inherently stable and trimable from entry to landing while examining methods of improving subsonic aerodynamic performance.

Spencer, Bernard, Jr.↗

Development of a Pressure Box to Evaluate Reusable-Launch-Vehicle Cryogenic-Tank Panels

A cryogenic pressure-box test machine has been designed and is being developed to test full-scale reusable-launch-vehicle cryogenic-tank panels. This machine is equipped with an internal pressurization system, a cryogenic cooling system, and a heating system to simulate the mechanical and thermal loading conditions that are representative of a reusable-launch-vehicle mission profile. The cryogenic cooling system uses liquid helium and liquid nitrogen to simulate liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen tank internal temperatures. A quartz lamp heating system is used for heating the external surface of the test panels to simulate cryogenic-tank external surface temperatures during re-entry of the launch vehicle. The pressurization system uses gaseous helium and is designed to be controlled independently of the cooling system. The tensile loads in the axial direction of the test panel are simulated by means of hydraulic actuators and a load control system. The hoop loads in the test panel are reacted by load-calibrated turnbuckles attached to the skin and frame elements of the test panel. The load distribution in the skin and frames can be adjusted to correspond to the tank structure by using these turnbuckles. The seal between the test panel and the cryogenic pressure box is made from a reinforced Teflon material which can withstand pressures greater than 52 psig at cryogenic temperatures. Analytical results and tests on prototype test components indicate that most of the cryogenic-tank loading conditions that occur in flight can be simulated in the cryogenic pressure-box test machine.

Ambur, Damodar R.↗

Development of a Pressure Box to Evaluate Reusable-Launch-Vehicle Cryogenic-Tank Panels

A cryogenic pressure-box test machine has been designed and is being developed to test full-scale reusable launch vehicle cryogenic-tank panels. This machine is equipped with an internal pressurization system, a cryogenic cooling system, and a heating system to simulate the mechanical and thermal loading conditions that are representative of a reusable launch vehicle mission profile. The cryogenic cooling system uses liquid helium and liquid nitrogen to simulate liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen tank internal temperatures. A quartz lamp heating system is used for heating the external surface of the test panels to simulate cryogenic-tank external surface temperatures during re-entry of the launch vehicle. The pressurization system uses gaseous helium and is designed to be controlled independently of the cooling system. The tensile loads in the axial direction of the test panel are simulated by means of hydraulic actuators and a load control system. The hoop loads in the test panel are reacted by load-calibrated turnbuckles attached to the skin and frame elements of the test panel. The load distribution in the skin and frames can be adjusted to correspond to the tank structure by using these turnbuckles. The seal between the test panel and the cryogenic pressure box is made from a reinforced Teflon material which can withstand pressures greater than 52 psig at cryogenic temperatures. Analytical results and tests on prototype test components indicate that most of the cryogenic-tank loading conditions that occur in flight can be simulated in the cryogenic pressure-box test machine.

Ambur, Damodar R.↗

Gradient Compression Garments as a Countermeasure to Post-Space Flight Orthostatic Intolerance: Potential Interactions with the Maximum Absorbency Garment

Astronauts and cosmonauts may experience symptoms of orthostatic intolerance during re-entry, landing, and for several days post-landing following short- and long-duration spaceflight. Presyncopal symptoms have been documented in approximately 20% of short-duration and greater than 60% of long-duration flyers on landing day specifically during 5-10 min of controlled (no countermeasures employed at the time of testing) stand tests or 80 deg head-up tilt tests. Current operational countermeasures to orthostatic intolerance include fluid loading prior to and whole body cooling during re-entry as well as compression garments that are worn during and for up to several days after landing. While both NASA and the Russian space program have utilized compression garments to protect astronauts and cosmonauts traveling on their respective vehicles, a "next-generation" gradient compression garment (GCG) has been developed and tested in collaboration with a commercial partner to support future space flight missions. Unlike previous compression garments used operationally by NASA that provide a single level of compression across only the calves, thighs, and lower abdomen, the GCG provides continuous coverage from the feet to below the pectoral muscles in a gradient fashion (from approximately 55 mm Hg at the feet to approximately 16 mmHg across the abdomen). The efficacy of the GCG has been demonstrated previously after a 14-d bed rest study without other countermeasures and after short-duration Space Shuttle missions. Currently the GCG is being tested during a stand test following long-duration missions (~6 months) to the International Space Station. While results to date have been promising, interactions of the GCG with other space suit components have not been examined. Specifically, it is unknown whether wearing the GCG over NASA's Maximum Absorbency Garment (MAG; absorbent briefs worn for the collection of urine and feces while suited during re-entry and landing) will interfere with the effectiveness of the GCG or conversely whether the GCG will reduce the fluid absorption capabilities of the MAG. Methods: This operational, directed study, will (1) determine whether the effectiveness of the GCG is affected by the MAG with regard to cardiovascular responses to head-up tilt, the standard orthostatic intolerance test employed for astronauts and bed rest subjects; (2) determine whether the effectiveness of the MAG is compromised by the GCG tested by injecting a standard fluid volume (950 ml in 3 separate simulated "urine voids") at a standardized rate (30 ml/sec); and (3) determine whether comfort is affected by wearing the MAG under the GCG using a standardized questionnaire. Results from this study will guide future development and operational use of the GCG and MAG to maximize crew health, safety, and comfort.

Lee, S. M. C.↗

Sample Materials Considerations for Curating and Processing Pristine MSR Samples

The perseverance rover is collecting and caching samples of Mars as part of the Mars 2020 mission, which represents the first leg of a multi-mission Mars Sample Return Campaign. The MSR Campaign is an international partnership that will result in delivery of the first martian samples to Earth that were not delivered through meteoritic infall. All meteorites, regardless of how they were handled from recovery to curation, have experienced uncontrolled entry and exposure to the terrestrial environment. Whilst meteorite deliveries are serendipitous, they are also unplanned events that require reactionary responses for recovery and curation. However, with the direct return of pristine astromaterials from another body, we are afforded the ability to design a facility in advance of sample delivery to keep those samples in a pristine (i.e., as returned) state for an indefinite period of time. Given that the curation and processing infrastructure needs to be made out of something, it is important to choose materials for the pristine curation environment that will optimize between the need to effectively process samples and the need to minimize contamination of the samples. The Johnson Space Center (JSC) has an optimized list of materials that have been used in previous sample return missions that includes 304/316 Stainless Steel, Teflon, and T6061 Aluminum (1). This set of materials are compatible with inorganic, organic, and biological cleanliness requirements and protocols. Furthermore, only these materials are permitted to come in contact with pristine samples. We note that JSC uses Neoprene and Hypalon for the gloves on their gloveboxes, but the glove material never comes in direct contact with the samples, only the approved materials. The MSR sample tubes will be made of Ti, so Ti may be an acceptable material for making tools, but the minor and trace element abundances of 304 and 316 stainless steel are well known and do not inhibit scientific investigations of metals, including HSE (2). More work is needed to determine whether the same is true for Ti alloys. In addition to defining the materials in the pristine environment, one must also choose whether the pristine environment will be under vacuum or under a specific atmospheric composition and pressure. Although JAXA has successfully implemented pristine curation vacuum chambers for their Hayabusa and Hayabusa2 samples (3), a vacuum environment is not appropriate for martian samples because it may drive deliquescence of mineral phases in the samples that are sensitive to pressure and relative humidity (4). Consequently, the pristine environment for the martian samples should be under an inert gas. It will be crucial to minimize the number of gases that come into direct contact with samples and these gases will need to be high purity and consistent throughout the pristine isolators. Samples at JSC are stored under high purity gaseous nitrogen (1). Dry N2 gas has not been a problem for N isotope studies for high-T release phases, but an additional inert atmosphere like Ar may be needed for samples where there is a particular concern about low-T release of N from bulk sample analysis. References: (1) McCubbin FM, et al. (2019) Space Science Reviews, 215, 1-81. (2) Day JMD, et al. (2018) Meteorit. Planet. Sci. 53:1283-1291. (3) Yada, T., et al., (2014). Meteorit. Planet. Sci. 49, 135-153. (4) Tosca NJ, et al. (2021). Astrobiology, in press, doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0115.

F M McCubbin↗

Energetic Particles Investigation (EPI)

The EPI instrument operates during the pre-entry phase of the Galileo Probe. The main objective is the study of the energetic particle population in the inner Jovian magnetosphere and in the upper atmosphere. This will be achieved through omnidirectional measurements of electrons, protons, alpha-particles and heavy ions (Z greater than 2) and recording intensity profiles with a spatial resolution of about 0.02 Jupiter radii. Sectored data will also be obtained for electrons, protons, and alpha-particles to determine directional anisotropies and particle pitch angle distributions. The detector assembly is a two-element telescope using totally depleted circular silicon surface-barrier detectors surrounded by cylindrical tungsten shielding. The lower energy threshold of the particle species investigated during the Probe's pre-entry phase is determined by the material thickness of the Probe's rear heat shield which is required for heat protection of the scientific payload during entry into the Jovian atmosphere. The EPI instrument is combined with the Lightning and Radio Emission Detector and both instruments share one interface of the Probe's power, command, and data unit.

Fischer, H. M.↗

Computational Prediction of Infrasound Arrival Times and Directions from Stationary and Moving Impulsive Sources

This report addresses the need to predict infrasound signal arrival times and back azimuths at monitoring stations, enabling more focused and efficient searches within recorded waveform data. The primary challenge is estimating expected signal arrival windows for stationary and moving acoustic sources, such as chemical explosions, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids, and spacecraft re-entry events. To address this challenge, a reproducible methodology is described that uses simplified propagation speeds for boundary layer, tropospheric, stratospheric, and thermospheric atmospheric waveguides. While the Python source code itself is not freely available, this document provides detailed, step-by-step instructions, and equations enabling users to replicate and adapt the method independently. The method reliably predicts signal arrival intervals and back azimuths, thereby supporting rapid detection and accurate interpretation of infrasound events. Results demonstrate that this method effectively identifies plausible signal arrival intervals and directions, facilitating faster event detection and more reliable interpretation. This methodology directly supports atmospheric monitoring, planetary defense, and forensic analysis of explosive atmospheric events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗