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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24

Validation of MPACT BWR capabilities against critical experiments

Over the years, significant validation work for the neutronics code MPACT has been performed against zero-power critical benchmarks and measured data from operating nuclear power plants. As a part of the Modeling and Analysis of Exelon BWRs for Eigenvalue and Thermal Limits Predictability project, new validation efforts relevant to boiling water reactor (BWR) core applications have been performed. This paper presents the results of the critical experiment portion of the BWR validation efforts for MPACT. The Kritz-4 experiments and IPEN/MB-01 BWR-relevant configurations are modeled with MPACT. The Kritz-4 BWR critical experiments were performed at both cold and hot conditions, which is a unique feature among other critical experiment facilities. The MPACT results with linear source (LS) Method of Characteristics (MOC) have very good agreement with the measured criticality. When using the 60-group BWR library with LS and P2 scattering, the maximum k{sub eff} error is 109 pcm, and the average cold-hot bias is only -0.11 pcm/K. The fission rate distributions of MPACT are also verified with Serpent calculations. For the IPEN facility, two configurations are considered: one with a large central void, and one with a cruciform control rod. The MPACT k{sub eff} errors are less than 50 pcm for all IPEN problems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

3D hydrogeophysical characterization of managed aquifer recharge basins

Aquifers are increasingly stressed. Managed aquifer recharge provides a potential solution to mitigate this stress and provide sustainable groundwater resources. Subsurface properties are known to have a strong control on the infiltration rates that can be achieved. However, these properties are often highly heterogeneous and difficult to assess with conventional probing techniques. Here, we show the application of 3D geophysical imaging to assess the recharge potential and its variation across several basins used for managed aquifer recharge. We link in-situ measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity with the electrical resistivity of the subsurface to establish petrophysical relationships and use those relationships to estimate the distribution of hydraulic conductivity throughout the five recharge basins. Our results show a considerable variability in the hydraulic properties, i.e., soil texture and saturated hydraulic conductivity, that have a direct impact on potential infiltration rates. We use the 3D hydraulic property distributions to model groundwater recharge and provide estimates for infiltration rates and volumes, and use this approach to assess the impact of management activities on groundwater recharge performance. Having such data not only enables us to predict infiltration rates, but also provides means for optimizing such water infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study on 3D Internal Magnetic Field Distribution and Dynamic Mechanics of a Giant Magnetostrictive Actuator

The three-dimensional (3D) coupled magneto-elastic dynamic model of a giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA) was built based on Maxwell’s equations, elasticity, and vibration theories. The general analytical expressions for the 3D internal magnetic field distribution of GMA were derived, and the corresponding analytical solutions were obtained. This analytical model is able to predict the internal magnetic field distribution and the output displacement of GMA system with different physical parameters under external excitations. The dynamic behaviors, such as the amplitude vs. frequency responses and the time domain waveforms of the GMA, were also studied. Analytical solutions showed that the internal magnetic field has a prominent end effect along the axial direction of a giant magnetostrictive material (GMM) rod, whereas a minimal skin effect along its radial direction, which are matched very well with the FEM results. The amplitude-frequency relationship exhibited prominent resonance and anti-resonance characteristic, which is a typical hysteresis feature of the GMA system. In order to testify the validity of the model prediction, a GMA testing system was also established. Excellent agreement was found between the experiment measurements and model predictions in the range of our research (frequency is lower than 300 Hz). The analytical results of the present study have potential applications in the fields of active vibration control and other precision machining of the GMA system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Inferring Atmospheric Release Characteristics in a Large Computer Experiment using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

An atmospheric release of hazardous material, whether accidental or intentional, can be catastrophic for those in the path of the plume. Predicting the path of a plume based on characteristics of the release (location, amount and duration) and meteorological conditions is an active research area highly relevant for emergency and long-term response to these releases. As a result, researchers have developed particle dispersion simulators to provide plume path predictions that incorporate release characteristics and meteorological conditions. However, since release characteristics and meteorological conditions are often unknown, the inverse problem is of great interest, that is, based on all the observations of the plume so far, what can be inferred about the release characteristics? This is the question we seek to answer using plume observations from a controlled release at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in Central California. With access to a large number of evaluations of a computationally expensive particle dispersion simulator that includes continuous and categorical inputs and spatio-temporal output, building a fast statistical surrogate model (or emulator) presents many statistical challenges, but is an essential tool for inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We achieve accurate emulation using Bayesian adaptive splines to model weights on empirical orthogonal functions. Here, we use this emulator as well as appropriately identifiable simulator discrepancy and observational error models to calibrate the simulator, thus finding a posterior distribution of characteristics of the release. Since the release was controlled, these characteristics are known, making it possible to compare our findings to the truth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The impact of halo concentration on the Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect signal from massive galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT The Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SZ) effect is sensitive to the pressure of ionized gas inside galaxy clusters, which is in turn controlled largely by the gravitational potential of the cluster. Changing the concentration parameter describing the cluster mass distribution impacts the gravitational potential and thus the cluster SZ signal, with implications for cosmological and other analyses of SZ-selected clusters. We investigate the concentration–SZ relation in theory and simulations. We find that the impact of concentration on the inner SZ profile (R ≲ 0.75R200c) can be captured with standard polytropic gas models. However, we find that such models do a poor job of reproducing the outer SZ profiles (R ≳ 0.75R200c) and the relation between the integrated SZ signal, Y, and concentration. This disagreement results from a sharp truncation of the gas pressure profile near the splashback radius, likely caused by virial shocks. We develop a simple description of the truncation that leads to a good match with the simulated SZ profiles out to several R200c for clusters of varying mass and concentration, and that also accurately predicts the concentration–Y relationship. Finally, we determine how inference of the linear bias parameter and splashback radius for SZ-selected clusters can be biased by ignoring the concentration dependence of the SZ signal, finding that bias to the former is essentially negligible, while bias to the latter can be as much as 2 per cent.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Insights Into Thermal Runaway Mechanisms: Fast Tomography Analysis of Metal Agglomerates in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Thermal Runaway (TR) in lithium-ion batteries (LIB) is a critical technological and social concern. Whilst such events are rare, TR is characterized by uncontrollable heating leading to catastrophic failures. To deepen the understanding of the failure process and subsequently develop more accurate TR prediction models and as a result safer battery systems, we present in this work high-speed X-ray tomography for in-depth investigations of the copper current collector melting and agglomeration during TR. The melting process presents valuable real-time internal information about heat evolution during TR, previously challenging to access but crucially important for validating TR models. In this work, controlled failure studies combined with high-speed X-ray tomography were performed on two different commercial LIB models, subjecting them to both external heating and nail penetration to induce TR. Through real-time observation via high-speed tomography, followed by segmentation, rendering, and analysis, the formation of copper agglomerates was qualitatively and quantitatively characterized and visualized for the first time. Agglomerates tended to form either from the battery's outermost layers or centrally, depending on the method of TR initiation, and gives an indirect insight into the internal temperature evolution and distribution. Moreover, an initial comparative analysis between the battery models also revealed differences in agglomerate size, which has been linked to the thicker copper current collectors of one of the cell models. We further discuss the impact of larger copper agglomerates on heat distribution and safety. This study not only sheds light on the intricate dynamics of TR in LIBs but also underscores the pivotal role of 'gold-standard' imaging techniques in advancing battery safety, crucial for the robust modeling of TR and the future design of electric vehicle safety systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High Performance Adaptive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-based Real-time Emergency Control (HADREC) to Enhance Power Grid Resilience in Stochastic Environment (Final Report)

The HADREC technology developed in this project features real-time, validated, and predictive emergency control capabilities needed to effectively safeguard the grid against costly disturbances from extreme weather and other disruptive events. It has the potential to revolutionize the emergency control by providing faster and more effective solution for power grid emergency control. The technology can reduce the grid emergency control action time from minutes to seconds and mitigate the impact of outages and reduce system recovery time. The evaluation results using the models and data from PacifiCorp system have shown ~20% improvement in responding time and 70% improved in tripped generator output, comparing against today’s industrial application. This performance can help reduce preventive measurements and improve network utilization and market efficiency, and help lead to a more reliable and resilient power grid with renewable integration. The project has generated significant interest from industry, academic and commercial companies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimal pumping schedule with high-viscosity gel for uniform distribution of proppant in unconventional reservoirs

Hydrocarbon recovery from a hydraulic-fractured unconventional reservoir can be enhanced by replacing slickwater with non-Newtonian high-viscosity gel as a fracturing fluid. However, in the literature, the role of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production from a fractured reservoir is not very well understood. This lack of understanding makes it difficult for the industry to choose appropriate viscosity parameters of fracturing gels. Motivated by these limitations, first, we have developed a high-fidelity model of non-Newtonian fluid flow to simulate fracture propagation, fluid leak-off, and gel flowback processes to predict the oil production from a hydraulic fractured reservoir. Simulation results of the high-fidelity model show how fracture geometry, formation damage, and gel cleanup process varies with the fracturing fluid rheology. Therefore, the developed model is used to understand the effect of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production via a sensitivity analysis, which provides a set of rheological parameters that maximize the cumulative amount of oil production. Finally, utilizing this optimal high-viscosity gel, a model predictive controller is designed to obtain an optimal pumping schedule necessary for producing a target fracture geometry and proppant concentration. The closed-loop simulation results demonstrate that the obtained pumping schedule successfully achieved the desired fracture geometry and proppant concentration at the end of pumping, leading to the maximum oil production from an unconventional reservoir.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Securing against malicious control of circuit breakers in electrical substations

An example method for detecting and mitigating attacks on electric power substations comprises detecting a command to open or close a circuit breaker in the electric power substation. A modified extended substation model for the electric power substation is generated, based on the detected command and based on measurements in substation, where the modified extended substation model is a power flow model for the substation and for one or more directly connected neighboring substations. A power flow analysis is performed, using the modified extended substation model, to generate a predicted voltage for each of a plurality of nodes in the substation and in the one or more directly connected neighboring substations. Each predicted voltage is compared to a corresponding allowable voltage range, and execution of the command is blocked in response to determining that one or more of the voltages is outside the corresponding allowable voltage range.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) is a state-of-the-art land surface model that simulates the intricate interactions between the terrestrial land surface and other components of the Earth system. Originating from the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, ELM has been under active development, with added new features and functionality, including plant hydraulics, radiation–topography interaction, subsurface multiphase flow, and more explicit land use and management practices. This study integrates ELM v2.1 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; WRF-ELM) model through a modified Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) framework, enabling affordable high-resolution regional modeling by leveraging ELM's innovative features alongside WRF's diverse atmospheric parameterization options. This framework includes a top-level driver for variable communication between WRF and ELM and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) caps for the WRF atmospheric component and ELM workflow control, encompassing initialization, execution, and finalization. Importantly, this LILAC–ESMF framework demonstrates a more modular approach compared to previous coupling efforts between WRF and land surface models. It maintains the integrity of ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future developments in ELM to WRF-ELM. To test the ability of the coupled model to capture land–atmosphere interactions over regions with a variety of land uses and land covers, we conducted high-resolution (4 km) WRF-ELM ensemble simulations over the Great Lakes region (GLR) in the summer of 2018 and systematically compared the results against observations, reanalysis data, and WRF-CTSM (WRF coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model). In general, the coupled WRF-ELM model has reasonably captured the spatial distribution of surface state variables and fluxes across the GLR, particularly over the natural vegetation areas. The evaluation results provide a baseline reference for further improvements in ELM in the regional application of high-resolution weather and climate predictions. Our work serves as an example to the model development community for expanding an advanced land surface model's capability to represent fully-coupled land–atmosphere interactions at fine spatial scales. The development and release of WRF-ELM marks a significant advancement for the ELM user community, providing opportunities for fine-scale regional representation, parameter calibration in coupled mode, and examination of new schemes with atmospheric feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat Transfer Experiments of a 1st Stage Blade Cascade for Supercritical CO2 Oxy-Combustion Turbine Application

The results of internally cooled 1st stage blade (S1B) cascade testing in a supercritical CO2 environment is presented. The turbine blade design has been previously established for the end application of an oxy-combustion turbine operating in the Allam-Fetvedt cycle with turbine inlet conditions of 305 bar and 1150°C. The internally cooled blade features leading edge (LE) region impingement cooling, mid-section ribbed serpentine passages, and a pin-finned trailing edge (TE) region before cooling ejection holes. The geometry for the tested blade cascade has a cooled central blade with un-cooled blades on either side to match flowpath areas of the actual turbine. The flowpath reuses internal components previously employed for mid-section region ribbed serpentine passage experiments that established Nusselt number enhancement ratios over a range of Reynolds numbers from 100,000-400,000. New components include flow conditioning plates upstream and downstream of the blade cascade to adequately represent the flow field and blade external heat transfer coefficient profiles for the actual turbine. The cooled central blade utilizes uniform crystal temperature sensors (UCTS) with six sensors each on the blade pressure and suction surfaces distributed radially and from LE to TE. The post-processed UCTS quantified the maximum wall temperature seen at each installed sensor location. The test procedure consisted of establishing supercritical CO2 cooling flow temperature and flow rate and maintaining it throughout the test. The flow rate aims to match that for the actual in-service turbine blade design and is maintained through an orifice restriction to keep the pressure differential between internal cooling flow and external hot flow nearly constant. For the sCO2 flow path external to the blade, temperatures were ramped throughout the test via control of the test loop’s natural gas burner heater. The maximum temperature seen was 468°C and held constant for a duration of 10 minutes at which the blade metal temperature was predicted to be at its maximum before ramping down. For the turbine blade design for service inlet conditions, external flow path computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results and an internal cooling 1-D thermal and hydraulic flow network model using experimentally validated correlations served as thermal finite element (FE) boundary conditions to predict blade metal temperatures. These predicted temperatures were subsequently utilized in a structural FE model to predict blade life ratings dictated by Haynes 282 creep strength data, having a strong dependence on temperature. The boundary conditions experienced during testing are used in the same workflow and compared to the experimental results, with the goal of validating the analysis methodology and providing insight on the uncertainty in local metal temperature predictions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗