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Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Right Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Adams, R. B.↗

Geological rhythms and cometary impacts

Time-series analysis reveals two dominant, stable long-term periodicities approximately equal to 33 + or - 3 and 260 + or - 25 million years in the known series of geological and biological upheavals during the Phanerozoic Eon. Because the cycles of these episodes agree in period and phase with the cycles of impact cratering on earth, these results suggest that periodic comet impacts strongly influence global tectonism and biological evolution. These two periodicities could arise from interactions of the solar system with interstellar clouds as the solar system moves cyclically through the Galaxy.

Rampino, M. R.↗

Predicting the Penetration of a Shielded TPS Tile

All spacecraft are subject to the possibility of high-speed particle impacts during their mission life. In low earth orbit, those impacts could be the result of collisions with pieces of orbital debris or with meteorites. Beyond LEO, and especially beyond GEO, those impacts will likely be caused by meteorites. Such high-speed impacts on spacecraft surfaces create debris clouds that travel towards and eventually impact other downstream spacecraft components. In addition to the impulsive load that such debris clouds would impart to the spacecraft elements with which they subsequently collide, the largest fragment in these debris clouds poses a significant threat on its own to those spacecraft elements. In order to be able to assess the severity of the threat posed by such a fragment, it is important to be able to predict the extent of damage sustained by the impacted spacecraft element. In this paper, we present a new process for determining the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system. The requirements for the process were that it be applicable across a full spectrum of impact low velocities (i.e. from ~ 7 km/s to above 50 km/s), that it be applicable over a wide range of projectile materials densities (i.e. ranging from water to steel, for example), and that it be applicable over a wide range of trajectory obliquities (i.e. not just normal impacts). Furthermore, the process developed should be sufficiently flexible so that it can be used for shield design parameter and / or system configuration trade studies (i.e. be written in terms of as many shield and TPS tile system parameters as possible). Following the initial impact of the projectile on the outer wall of the dual-wall shield, a debris cloud (i.e. the primary debris cloud) is created that travels towards and impacts the inner wall of the shield. Within this debris cloud is a combination of solid, liquid, and vaporized material, depending on the impact velocity and the impedance mismatch of the projectile and outer wall materials. The impact of this debris cloud on the inner wall creates another debris cloud (i.e. the secondary debris cloud) that then travels towards and impacts the TPS tile. Within the particulate distribution of the material in each of these debris clouds is a so-called largest fragment. The process used to calculate the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system developed herein consists of the following three steps: 1. Does the initial projectile perforate the outer wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the outer wall of the shield and traveling towards the shield’s inner wall. 2. Does the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the outer wall of the shield perforate the inner wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile again remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the rear of the shield inner wall. 3. Calculate the penetration depth of the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the inner wall into the TPS. Perforation of the inner and outer shield walls is predicted using the Cour-Palais penetration depth equation and an associated failure criterion [1]. The largest debris cloud fragment diameters and associated velocities are calculated using regression equations developed from a mix of hydrocode and experimental diameter and velocity information [2]. Finally, TPS penetration depths are calculated using an empirical penetration depth predictor equation based on high-speed impact test data and are calibrated using a limited number of hydrocode penetration depth predictions for water, nylon, aluminum, Dunite, and steel projectiles The predictions of the penetration depth calculation process are compared against the predictions of more than 60 SPHC hydrocode runs. These comparisons show that the process used to calculate TPS tile penetration depths usually yields values that are within 1 mm of the predictions of hydrocode simulations. If a maximum allowable TPS penetration depth is known, the process developed herein can now be used to develop a failure limit equation that would predict whether or not an impacting particle would penetrate deeply enough into the TPS to result in a “failed” or “not failed” end state. References [1] E.L. Christiansen, “Design and performance equations for advanced meteoroid and debris shields”, International Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 14, 1993, pp. 145-156. [2] W.P. Schonberg, “Predicting the size of the largest particle fragment in a debris cloud created by an orbital debris impact and its associated velocity”, 2021 Applied Space Environments Conference, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, November, 2021.

Meteroid↗

Radiative properties of the background stratospheric aerosols and implications for perturbed conditions

A series of Mie scattering calculations has been performed to define the wavelength-dependent, single scattering properties of aerosols present in the stratosphere during July 1979. Additional radiative transfer computations were conducted to assess the impact of aerosols on the earth's radiation budget. For these purposes, an extensive set of measurements of aerosol characteristics that were obtained in Alaska from aircraft and satellite platforms was used. At that time, the optical depth was too small for aerosols to significantly impact earth's climate. But the optical depth of the stratospheric aerosol layer has been large enough during some volcanically perturbed periods for the aerosols to have caused a noticeable warming of the stratosphere and cooling of the troposphere.

Pollack, J. R.↗

Evaluating the Impact of Data Placement to Spark and SciDB with an Earth Science Use Case

We investigate the impact of data placement for two Big Data technologies, Spark and SciDB, with a use case from Earth Science where data arrays are multidimensional. Simultaneously, this investigation provides an opportunity to evaluate the performance of the technologies involved. Two datastores, HDFS and Cassandra, are used with Spark for our comparison. It is found that Spark with Cassandra performs better than with HDFS, but SciDB performs better yet than Spark with either datastore. The investigation also underscores the value of having data aligned for the most common analysis scenarios in advance on a shared nothing architecture. Otherwise, repartitioning needs to be carried out on the fly, degrading overall performance.

Spark↗

Scaling Global Warming Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems: Lessons From a Suite of Earth System Models

An important technique used by climate modelers to isolate the impacts of increasing greenhouse gasses on Earth System processes is to simulate the impact of an abrupt increase in carbon dioxide. The spatial pattern of change provides a “fingerprint” that is generally much larger than natural variability. Insofar as the response to radiative forcing is linear (the impact of quadrupling CO 2 is twice the impact of doubling CO 2 ) this fingerprint can then be used to estimate the impact of historical greenhouse gas forcing. However, the degree to which biogeochemical cycles respond linearly to radiative forcing has rarely been tested. In this paper, we evaluate which ocean biogeochemical fields are likely to respond linearly to changing radiative forcing, which ones do not, and where linearity breaks down. We also demonstrate that the representation of lateral mixing by mesoscale eddies, which varies significantly across climate models, plays an important role in modulating the breakdown of linearity. Globally integrated surface rates of biogeochemical cycling (primary productivity, particulate export) respond in a relatively linear fashion and are only moderately sensitive to mixing. By contrast, the habitability of the interior ocean (as determined by hypoxia and calcite supersaturation) behaves non-linearly and is very sensitive to mixing. This is because the deep ocean, as well as certain regions in the surface ocean, are very sensitive to the magnitude of deep wintertime convection. The cessation of convection under global warming is strongly modulated by the representation of eddy mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coincidence in Time of the Imbrium Basin Impact and Apollo 15 KREEP Volcanic Flows: The Case for Impact-Induced Melting

On the Earth there is no firm evidence that impacts can induce volcanic activity. However, the Moon does provide a very likely example of volcanism induced by an immense impact: the Imbrium basin-forming event was immediately succeeded by a crustal partial melting event that released basalt flows characterized by K, rare-earth elements (REE), P, and other trace elements (KREEP) over a wide area creating the Apennine Bench Formation. Impact total melting is inconsistent with the chemistry and petrography of these Apollo 15 KREEP basalts, which are quite unlike the impact melts recognized at Taurus-Littrow as the products of the Serenitatis impact. The Imbrium impact and the KREEP volcanic events are indistinguishable in radiometric age, and thus the volcanism occurred less than about 20 Ma later than the impact (less than about 0.5% of lunar history). The sample record indicates that such KREEP volcanism had not occurred in the region prior to that time, and demonstrates that it never occurred again. Such coincidence in time implies a genetic relationship between the two events, and impact-induced partial melting or release appears to be the only feasible process. Nonetheless, the characteristics of the Apollo 15 KREEP basalts suggest large-degree crustal melting that is not easy to reconcile with the inability of lunar pressure release alone to induce partial melting unless the source was already almost at its melting point. The earliest history of the surface of the Earth, at a time of greater internal heat production and basin-forming impacts, could have been greatly influenced by impact-induced melting.

Ryder, Graham↗

Geological implications of impacts of large asteroids and comets on the earth

The present conference discusses such topics as large object fluxes in near-earth space and the probabilities of terrestrial impacts, the geological record of impacts, dynamics modeling for large body impacts on continents and oceans, physical, chemical, and biological models of large impacts' atmospheric effects, dispersed impact ejecta and their signatures, general considerations concerning mass biological extinctions, the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, geochemical signatures in the stratigraphic record, and other phanerozoic events. Attention is given to terrestrial impact rates for long- and short-period comets, estimates of crater size for large body impact, a first-order estimate of shock heating and vaporization in oceanic impacts, atmospheric effects in the first few minutes after an impact, a feasibility test for biogeographic extinction, and the planktonic and dinosaur extinctions.

Silver, L. T.↗

Astronaut's guide to terrestrial impact craters

Impact cratering of the earth's surface is discussed and compared with lunar craters. The basic types found on earth are either simple craters or complex impact structures and basins. Meteorite fragments and shock metamorphism provide evidence of a crater's formation by meteorite impact. Known craters on earth are ordered by location and a few principal facts are given for each crater and the general terrain in which it is located. A satellite picture of each crater and maps identifying crater locations are provided.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

Assessing Atmospheric Water Injection from Oceanic Impacts

Collisions of asteroids and comets with the Earth s surface are rare events that punctuate the geologic record. Due to the vastness of Earth s oceans, oceanic impacts of asteroids or comets are expected to be about 4 times more frequent than land impacts. The resulting injections of oceanic water into the upper atmosphere can have important repercussions on Earth s climate and atmospheric circulation. However, the duration and overall effect of these large injections are still unconstrained. This work addresses atmospheric injections of large amounts of water in oceanic impacts.

Pierazzo, E.↗

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean.

Kasting, James F.↗

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the Earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of Earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the Moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of Earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean. Specifically, high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios are possible if either: (1) the climate was cool (like today's climate), so that hydration of dissolved CO to formate was slow, or (2) the formate formed from CO was efficiently converted into volatile, reduced carbon compounds, such as methane. A high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio may have helped to facilitate prebiotic synthesis by enhancing the production rates of hydrogen cyanide and formaldehyde. Formaldehyde may have been produced even more efficiently by photochemical reduction of bicarbonate and formate in Fe(++)-rich surface waters.

Non-NASA Center↗

Crustal radiogenic heat production and the selective survival of ancient continental crust

It is pointed out that the oldest terrestrial rocks have so far revealed no evidence of the impact phase of Earth evolution. This observation suggests that processes other than impact were dominant at the time of stabilization of these units. However, a use of the oldest terrestrial rocks as a sample of the early terrestrial crust makes it necessary to consider the possibility that these rocks may represent a biased sample. In the present study, the global continental heat flow data set is used to provide further evidence that potassium, uranium, and thorium abundances are, on the average, low in surviving Archean crust relative to younger continental crust. An investigation is conducted of the implications of relatively low crustal radiogenic heat production to the stabilization of early continental crust, and possible Archean crustal stabilization models are discussed.

Morgan, P.↗

Crustal radiogenic heat production and the selective survival of ancient continental crust

It is pointed out that the oldest terrestrial rocks have so far revealed no evidence of the impact phase of earth evolution. This observation suggests that processes other than impact were dominant at the time of stabilization of these units. However, a use of the oldest terrestrial rocks as a sample of the early terrestrial crust makes it necessary to consider the possibility that these rocks may represent a biased sample. In the present study, the global continental heat flow data set is used to provide further evidence that potassium, uranium, and thorium abundances are, on the average, low in surviving Archean crust relative to younger continental crust. An investigation is conducted of the implications of relatively low crustal radiogenic heat production to the stabilization of early continental crust, and possible Archean crustal stabilization models are discussed.

Morgan, P.↗

Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss the key field measurements needed to constrain ice nucleation processes.

Jensen, Eric↗

Solar Eruptions, CMEs and Space Weather

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale magnetized plasma structures ejected from the Sun and propagate far into the interplanetary medium. CMEs represent energy output from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. The plasma clouds can drive shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. The plasma clouds also arrive at Earth in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced currents that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines. This lecture presents an overview of the origin, propagation, and geospace consequences of solar storms.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Coronal Mass Ejections Near the Sun and in the Interplanetary Medium

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere. During solar eruptions, the released energy flows out from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. The plasma clouds can drive shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. The plasma clouds also arrive at Earth in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced currents that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines. This lecture presents an overview of the origin, propagation, and geospace consequences of CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗