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DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems: 2024 Mission Campaign White Paper

This Sandia National Laboratories Mission Campaign (MC) seeks to create the technical basis that allows national leaders to efficiently assess and manage the digital assurance of high consequence systems. We will call for transformative research that enables efficient (1) development of provably secure systems and secure integration of untrusted products, (2) intelligent threat mitigation, and (3) digital risk-informed engineering trade-offs. Ultimately, this MC will impact multiple national security missions; it will develop an informed Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) community and expand Sandia partnerships to build this national capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Anatomy of a Security Operations Center

Many agencies and corporations are either contemplating or in the process of building a cyber Security Operations Center (SOC). Those Agencies that have established SOCs are most likely working on major revisions or enhancements to existing capabilities. As principle developers of the NASA SOC; this Presenters' goals are to provide the GFIRST community with examples of some of the key building blocks of an Agency scale cyber Security Operations Center. This presentation viII include the inputs and outputs, the facilities or shell, as well as the internal components and the processes necessary to maintain the SOC's subsistence - in other words, the anatomy of a SOC. Details to be presented include the SOC architecture and its key components: Tier 1 Call Center, data entry, and incident triage; Tier 2 monitoring, incident handling and tracking; Tier 3 computer forensics, malware analysis, and reverse engineering; Incident Management System; Threat Management System; SOC Portal; Log Aggregation and Security Incident Management (SIM) systems; flow monitoring; IDS; etc. Specific processes and methodologies discussed include Incident States and associated Work Elements; the Incident Management Workflow Process; Cyber Threat Risk Assessment methodology; and Incident Taxonomy. The Evolution of the Cyber Security Operations Center viII be discussed; starting from reactive, to proactive, and finally to proactive. Finally, the resources necessary to establish an Agency scale SOC as well as the lessons learned in the process of standing up a SOC viII be presented.

Wang, John↗

NASA NTRS2011

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Standards Development. Phase II Final Report. Volume 1: Concepts of Use, Initial System Requirements, Architecture, and AeroMACS Design Considerations

This report is provided as part of ITT s NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: New ATM Requirements-Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development and was based on direction provided by FAA project-level agreements for New ATM Requirements-Future Communications. Task 7 included two subtasks. Subtask 7-1 addressed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface data communications standards development, systems engineering, test bed and prototype development, and tests and demonstrations to establish operational capability for the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). Subtask 7-2 focused on systems engineering and development support of the L-band digital aeronautical communications system (L-DACS). Subtask 7-1 consisted of two phases. Phase I included development of AeroMACS concepts of use, requirements, architecture, and initial high-level safety risk assessment. Phase II builds on Phase I results and is presented in two volumes. Volume I (this document) is devoted to concepts of use, system requirements, and architecture, including AeroMACS design considerations. Volume II describes an AeroMACS prototype evaluation and presents final AeroMACS recommendations. This report also describes airport categorization and channelization methodologies. The purposes of the airport categorization task were (1) to facilitate initial AeroMACS architecture designs and enable budgetary projections by creating a set of airport categories based on common airport characteristics and design objectives, and (2) to offer high-level guidance to potential AeroMACS technology and policy development sponsors and service providers. A channelization plan methodology was developed because a common global methodology is needed to assure seamless interoperability among diverse AeroMACS services potentially supplied by multiple service providers.

Hall, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2011

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Standards Development. Phase II Final Report. Volume 2: Test Bed Performance Evaluation and Final AeroMACS Recommendations

This report is provided as part of ITT s NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: New ATM Requirements-Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development and was based on direction provided by FAA project-level agreements for New ATM Requirements-Future Communications. Task 7 included two subtasks. Subtask 7-1 addressed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface data communications standards development, systems engineering, test bed and prototype development, and tests and demonstrations to establish operational capability for the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). Subtask 7-2 focused on systems engineering and development support of the L-band digital aeronautical communications system (L-DACS). Subtask 7-1 consisted of two phases. Phase I included development of AeroMACS concepts of use, requirements, architecture, and initial high-level safety risk assessment. Phase II builds on Phase I results and is presented in two volumes. Volume I is devoted to concepts of use, system requirements, and architecture, including AeroMACS design considerations. Volume II (this document) describes an AeroMACS prototype evaluation and presents final AeroMACS recommendations. This report also describes airport categorization and channelization methodologies. The purposes of the airport categorization task were (1) to facilitate initial AeroMACS architecture designs and enable budgetary projections by creating a set of airport categories based on common airport characteristics and design objectives, and (2) to offer high-level guidance to potential AeroMACS technology and policy development sponsors and service providers. A channelization plan methodology was developed because a common global methodology is needed to assure seamless interoperability among diverse AeroMACS services potentially supplied by multiple service providers.

Hall, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2022

Treatment of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Stability Margin Reductions for Crewed Missions with Emphasis on Slosh Dynamics

NESC’s perspective for crewed spaceflight: Acceptance of flight control gain/phase stability margin reductions from industry standards should be accompanied by an adequately extensive technical treatment, including: •Analyzing the fundamental physics involved, with applicable simulation tool verification (particularly if results are dissimilar among rules of thumb, linear tools, nonlinear analysis, and flight data) •Conducting sensitivity studies in time and frequency domains to analyze effects of possible parameter and system variations •Studying the effects of the consequence of instability associated with offending modes by running stressing cases in time domain •Assessing alternative flight control designs to demonstrate that present design appropriately balances overall vehicle risk (i.e., quantitatively delineate chosen tradeoffs between various stability margins and vehicle performance in the context of risk/consequence) Work presented here represents an example summary of expected engineering work to flight-certify crewed missions with unstable slosh modes and reduced stability margins

Launch Vehicle Flight Control↗

DOE OSTI2024

IMAGINE BioSecurity: Mesocosm-Based Methods to Evaluate Biocontainment Strategies and Impact of Industrial Microbes Upon Native Ecosystems

Project Goals: The Integrative Modeling and Genome-scale Engineering for Biosystems Security (IMAGINE BioSecurity) SFA project seeks to establish an understanding of the behavior of engineered microbes in controlled versus environmental conditions to predictively devise new strategies for responding to biological escape. To this end, the IMAGINE Team has established a plant-soil mesocosm platform to track and quantify the fate of industrial microbes in environmental systems and assess the efficacy of biocontainment constraints upon genetically engineered microbe escape frequency and the impact of industrial microbes upon native ecological microbiomes. Abstract Text: Genetically modified industrial production microbes and their associated bioproducts have emerged as an integral component of a sustainable bioeconomy. However, the rapid development of these innovative technologies raises biosecurity concerns, namely, the risk of environmental escape. Thus, the realization of a bioeconomy hinges not only on the development and deployment of microbial production hosts, but also on the development of secure biosystems and biocontainment designs. Current laboratory-based biocontainment testing systems do not accurately reflect complexities found in natural environments, necessitating an environmentally relevant analysis pipeline that allows for the detection of rare escapees, the effect of associated bio-products, and the impact on native ecologies. To this end, we have developed an approach that utilizes soil mesocosms and integrated systems analyses to evaluate the efficacy of novel biocontainment strategies and to assess the impact of production systems upon terrestrial microbiome dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling a contamination with industrial microbial chasses versus their biocontained counterparts. Here we demonstrate the broad utility of this system by highlighting findings from both strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae that are contained with an inducible toxin anti-toxin system, and stains of Escherichia coli that are contained via genomic recoding. The resultant data demonstrate that this system has broad utility across diverse microbial chassis and biocontainment strategies, enables us to track the fate of our contaminating microbe with high sensitivity in the soil, as well as monitor broader impacts of the perturbation on the underlying soil system. The findings presented here support the use of this mesocosm-based approach to assess the environmental impact of industrial microbes and to validate biocontainment strategies.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Risk Assessment for Titanium Pressure Vessels Operating Inside the ARES I's Liquid Hydrogen Tank Environment

Titanium alloy (Ti-6-4) is currently being proposed for the manufacturing of pressure vessels (PV) for storage of compressed helium gas, which are mounted inside the ARES I's liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank. At cryogenic temperature, titanium alloys usually have the highest strength-to-weight ratio property and have been considered as the metallic materials of choice for lightweight PV operating in LH2 environment. Titanium PV s are also considered as heritage hardware because they have been used by NASA for the Saturn IV-B rocket s LH2 tank in the mid 1960 s. However, hydrogen embrittlement is possible if Ti-6-4 alloy is exposed to gaseous hydrogen at certain pressure and temperature during the LH2 tank filling and draining operations on the launch pad, and during the J2X engine burn period for the ARES I s upper stage. Additionally, the fracture toughness and ductility properties of Ti-6-4 are significantly decreased at cryogenic temperature. These factors do not necessary preclude the use of titanium PV in hydrogen or at cryogenic applications; however, their synergistic effects and the material damage tolerance must be accounted for in the mission life assessment for PV s, which are considered as fracture critical hardware. In this paper, an overview of the risk assessment for Ti-6-4 alloy, strategy to control hydrogen embrittlement and brief metallic material trade study for PV operating in LH2 tank will be presented.

Lee, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Recommendations on Future Science and Engineering Studies for Ocean Color

The Ocean Health Index measured Ecological Integrity as the relative condition of assessed species in a given location. This was calculated as the weighted sum of the International Union for Conservation of Natures (IUCN) assessments of species. Weights used were based on the level of extinction risk following Butchart et al.2007: EX (extinct) 0.0, CR (critically endangered) 0.2, EN (endangered) 0.5, VU (vulnerable) 0.7, NT (not threatened) 0.9, and LC (least concern) 0.99. For primarily coastal goals, the spatial average of these per pixel scores was based on a 3nmi buffer; for goals derived from all ocean waters, the spatial average was computed for the entire EEZ.

Geo-Cape↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Resilience of Buildings and Communities: A Multistakeholder Review of Metrics and Approaches

Increasing temperature-related hazards require a collective effort to assess and enhance the thermal resilience of buildings and communities to protect occupants’ safety and minimize property or infrastructure damage. However, limited coordination across stakeholders and lack of standardized procedures for resilience assessment undermine the effectiveness of extreme temperature mitigation and adaptation strategies across the building life cycle. This review examines the current literature on resilience metrics to address thermal stress and risk due to extreme indoor environments. Stakeholders of thermal resilience include architects and engineers, occupants, property owners, real estate developers, urban planners, and policymakers. Additionally, motivations for measuring thermal resilience are emphasized, such as safeguarding occupant health and survivability, protecting property, and ensuring business continuity during extreme weather events. This review provides actionable insights and identifies future research needs for enhancing resilience through tailored metrics for stakeholders during the planning, design, construction, operation, and retrofitting phases of buildings and communities.

building life cycle↗

DOE OSTI2025

PyTUQ: Python Toolkit for Uncertainty Quantification

SAND2025-03661O PyTUQ is a user-friendly software toolkit designed to help researchers and professionals understand and manage uncertainty in several scientific fields. By providing tools for analyzing how uncertainties affect outcomes, PyTUQ can be applied in areas such as energy production, and biology. Its unique approach allows users to make more informed decisions by assessing risks and improving predictions. Whether you're studying combustion processes or exploring complex biological systems, PyTUQ empowers you to gain deeper insights and enhance the reliability of your results. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

NASA NTRS1978

Study of hypersonic propulsion/airframe integration technology

An assessment is done of current and potential ground facilities, and analysis and flight test techniques for establishing a hypersonic propulsion/airframe integration technology base. A mach 6 cruise prototype aircraft incorporating integrated Scramjet engines was considered the baseline configuration, and the assessment focused on the aerodynamic and configuration aspects of the integration technology. The study describes the key technology milestones that must be met to permit a decision on development of a prototype vehicle, and defines risk levels for these milestones. Capabilities and limitations of analysis techniques, current and potential ground test facilities, and flight test techniques are described in terms of the milestones and risk levels.

Hartill, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Quality Interaction Between Mission Assurance and Project Team Members

Mission Assurance independent assessments started during the development cycle and continued through post launch operations. In operations, Health and Safety of the Observatory is of utmost importance. Therefore, Mission Assurance must ensure requirements compliance and focus on process improvements required across the operational systems including new/modified products, tools, and procedures. The deployment of the interactive model involves three objectives: Team member Interaction, Good Root Cause Analysis Practices, and Risk Assessment to avoid reoccurrences. In applying this model, we use a metric based measurement process and was found to have the most significant effect, which points to the importance of focuses on a combination of root cause analysis and risk approaches allowing the engineers the ability to prioritize and quantify their corrective actions based on a well-defined set of root cause definitions (i.e. closure criteria for problem reports), success criteria and risk rating definitions.

quality↗

NASA NTRS2014

GPM Timeline Inhibits For IT Processing

The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was created as one approach to capturing and understanding inhibits and controls from IT through launch. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, which launched from Japan in March 2014, was a joint mission under a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM was one of the first NASA Goddard in-house programs that extensively used software controls. Using this tool during the GPM buildup allowed a thorough review of inhibit and safety critical software design for hazardous subsystems such as the high gain antenna boom, solar array, and instrument deployments, transmitter turn-on, propulsion system release, and instrument radar turn-on. The GPM safety team developed a methodology to document software safety as part of the standard hazard report. As a result of this process, a new tool safety inhibit timeline was created for management of inhibits and their controls during spacecraft buildup and testing during IT at GSFC and at the launch range in Japan. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was a pathfinder approach for reviewing software that controls the electrical inhibits. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool strengthens the Safety Analysts understanding of the removal of inhibits during the IT process with safety critical software. With this tool, the Safety Analyst can confirm proper safe configuration of a spacecraft during each IT test, track inhibit and software configuration changes, and assess software criticality. In addition to understanding inhibits and controls during IT, the tool allows the Safety Analyst to better communicate to engineers and management the changes in inhibit states with each phase of hardware and software testing and the impact of safety risks. Lessons learned from participating in the GPM campaign at NASA and JAXA will be discussed during this session.

Inhibits↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Systems Model for System-Wide Safety Safety Demonstrator (SD-1): Wildfire Response Operations

The aim of this internship-based project was to contribute to the ongoing development of a systems model for System-Wide Safety’s first Technical Challenge 5 (TC5) series Safety Demonstrator (SD-1), which will be a demonstration of an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) in emerging wildfire response operations. Using Models-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) principles to develop the model, I organized and traced previously collected stakeholder needs from the Spring 2022 NASA System-Wide Safety Wildland Firefighting Operations Virtual Workshop (https://nari.arc.nasa.gov/sws-wildfire) to system elements, creating connections which can be used in the future by the project engineers to identify and address requirements gaps throughout the system design process. I also identified and modeled preliminary use case scenarios for aerial assets in the demonstrator and, building on previously produced preliminary high-level models of the 8 SD-1 Services, Functions, and Capabilities (SFCs) and their IASMS data flows, worked to model the Real-Time Risk Assessment (RTRA) tool as an implementation of Risk Assessment and Management that can take in multiple sets of data monitored by SFCs. Project deliverables include stakeholder requirements tables and matrices and systems model diagrams produced with MagicDraw software in the SysML Systems Modeling Language, with eventual plans to connect model diagrams to a Department of Defense Operational Viewpoint (OV-1) graphic, a high-level operational concept graphic that will be used to visualize the SD-1 scenarioin a future phase. The system model serves to provide a common understanding of the scope of and activities necessary for the completion of SD-1,and traces how stakeholder needs are to be addressed.

model-based systems engineering↗

NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list. CONCLUSION: The IMM Database in junction with the IMM is helping NASA aerospace program improve the health care and reduce risk for the astronauts crew. Both the database and model will continue to expand to meet customer needs through its multi-disciplinary evidence based approach to managing data. Future expansion could serve as a platform for a Space Medicine Wiki of medical conditions.

Saile, Lyn↗