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Colleen M. Iversen

Colleen Iversen is an ecosystem ecologist who utilizes a variety of field and laboratory techniques to understand and predict how ecosystems are shaped by environmental change. Her research takes her from upland forests to flooded peatlands to thawing Arctic tundra, chasing a better understanding of the secret lives of roots hidden beneath the soil surface. She works at the millimetre scale to answer a global question: how will ecosystems respond to the climate of the future? Colleen completed her Masters in Wetland Ecology at the University of Notre Dame (IN, USA) in 2004, and her PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Tennessee (Knoxville, TN, USA) in 2008. She is now a Senior Staff Scientist in the Environmental Sciences Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (TN, USA) and serves as a Theme Lead in the Climate Change Science Institute. Colleen is an elected Early Career Fellow of the Ecological Society of America, and a member of the inaugural cohort of ‘New Voices’ at the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. She views science communication as the foundation for a shared understanding of society's future, and she has shared her scientific vision on Public Radio International's ‘Science Friday’, and in the Alda School's ‘Flame Challenge’, as well as in organized symposia, sessions, and workshops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Biological mechanisms may contribute to soil carbon saturation patterns

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a key strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 , yet SOC pools often appear to saturate, or increase at a declining rate, as carbon (C) inputs increase. Soil C saturation is commonly hypothesized to result from the finite amount of reactive mineral surface area available for retaining SOC, and is accordingly represented in SOC models as a physicochemically determined SOC upper limit. However, mineral-associated SOC is largely microbially generated. In this perspective, we present the hypothesis that apparent SOC saturation patterns could emerge as a result of ecological constraints on microbial biomass—for example, via competition or predation—leading to reduced C flow through microbes and a reduced rate of mineral-associated SOC formation as soil C inputs increase. Microbially explicit SOC models offer an opportunity to explore this hypothesis, yet most of these models predict linear microbial biomass increases with C inputs and insensitivity of SOC to input rates. Synthesis of 54 C addition studies revealed constraints on microbial biomass as C inputs increase. Different hypotheses limiting microbial density were embedded in a three-pool SOC model without explicit limits on mineral surface area. As inputs increased, the model demonstrated either no change, linear, or apparently saturating increases in mineral-associated and particulate SOC pools. Taken together, our results suggest that microbial constraints are common and could lead to reduced mineral-associated SOC formation as input rates increase. We conclude that SOC responses to altered C inputs—or any environmental change—are influenced by the ecological factors that limit microbial populations, allowing for a wider range of potential SOC responses to stimuli. Understanding how biotic versus abiotic factors contribute to these patterns will better enable us to predict and manage soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metaphenomic Responses of a Native Prairie Soil Microbiome to Moisture Perturbations

Climate change is causing shifts in precipitation patterns in the central grasslands of the United States, with largely unknown consequences on the collective physiological responses of the soil microbial community, i.e., the metaphenome. Here, we used an untargeted omics approach to determine the soil microbial community’s metaphenomic response to soil moisture and to define specific metabolic signatures of the response. Specifically, we aimed to develop the technical approaches and metabolic mapping framework necessary for future systematic ecological studies. We collected soil from three locations at the Konza Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) field station in Kansas, and the soils were incubated for 15 days under dry or wet conditions and compared to field-moist controls. The microbiome response to wetting or drying was determined by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, metatranscriptomics, and metabolomics, and the resulting shifts in taxa, gene expression, and metabolites were assessed. Soil drying resulted in significant shifts in both the composition and function of the soil microbiome. In contrast, there were few changes following wetting. The combined metabolic and metatranscriptomic data were used to generate reaction networks to determine the metaphenomic response to soil moisture transitions. Site location was a strong determinant of the response of the soil microbiome to moisture perturbations. However, some specific metabolic pathways changed consistently across sites, including an increase in pathways and metabolites for production of sugars and other osmolytes as a response to drying. Using this approach, we demonstrate that despite the high complexity of the soil habitat, it is possible to generate insight into the effect of environmental change on the soil microbiome and its physiology and functions, thus laying the groundwork for future, targeted studies. Climate change is predicted to result in increased drought extent and intensity in the highly productive, former tallgrass prairie region of the continental United States. These soils store large reserves of carbon. The decrease in soil moisture due to drought has largely unknown consequences on soil carbon cycling and other key biogeochemical cycles carried out by soil microbiomes. In this study, we found that soil drying had a significant impact on the structure and function of soil microbial communities, including shifts in expression of specific metabolic pathways, such as those leading toward production of osmoprotectant compounds. This study demonstrates the application of an untargeted multi-omics approach to decipher details of the soil microbial community’s metaphenotypic response to environmental perturbations and should be applicable to studies of other complex microbial systems as well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mineralogical Changes in a Predominantly Fluviolacustrine Succession at Gale Crater, Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover landed in Gale crater in August 2012 to investigate the strata of lower Aeolis Mons (i.e., Mount Sharp) and characterize their depositional and diagenetic environments. Visible/short-wave infrared spectra from orbit of these strata show variations in phyllosilicate, sulfate, and Fe-oxide minerals, suggesting these units record environmental changes that occurred during the early Hesperian. Curiosity has traversed over 15 km and has climbed through Approx. 200 m of stratigraphic section, made up of predominantly fluviolacustrine (i.e., the Bradbury group and the Murray formation) and aeolian (i.e., the Stimson formation) units. Multiple geochemical and mineralogical instruments are onboard Curiosity to study these ancient rocks, including the Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instrument, which is an X-ray diffractometer (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence spectrometer, and the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS).

Rampe, E. B.↗

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transboundary determinants of avian zoonotic infectious diseases: challenges for strengthening research capacity and connecting surveillance networks

As the climate changes, global systems have become increasingly unstable and unpredictable. This is particularly true for many disease systems, including subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenzas (HPAIs) that are circulating the world. Ecological patterns once thought stable are changing, bringing new populations and organisms into contact with one another. Wild birds continue to be hosts and reservoirs for numerous zoonotic pathogens, and strains of HPAI and other pathogens have been introduced into new regions via migrating birds and transboundary trade of wild birds. With these expanding environmental changes, it is even more crucial that regions or counties that previously did not have surveillance programs develop the appropriate skills to sample wild birds and add to the understanding of pathogens in migratory and breeding birds through research. For example, little is known about wild bird infectious diseases and migration along the Mediterranean and Black Sea Flyway (MBSF), which connects Europe, Asia, and Africa. Focusing on avian influenza and the microbiome in migratory wild birds along the MBSF, this project seeks to understand the determinants of transboundary disease propagation and coinfection in regions that are connected by this flyway. Through the creation of a threat reduction network for avian diseases (Avian Zoonotic Disease Network, AZDN) in three countries along the MBSF (Georgia, Ukraine, and Jordan), this project is strengthening capacities for disease diagnostics; microbiomes; ecoimmunology; field biosafety; proper wildlife capture and handling; experimental design; statistical analysis; and vector sampling and biology. Here, we cover what is required to build a wild bird infectious disease research and surveillance program, which includes learning skills in proper bird capture and handling; biosafety and biosecurity; permits; next generation sequencing; leading-edge bioinformatics and statistical analyses; and vector and environmental sampling. Creating connected networks for avian influenzas and other pathogen surveillance will increase coordination and strengthen biosurveillance globally in wild birds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

20th century changes in carbon isotopes and water-use efficiency: tree-ring-based evaluation of the CLM4.5 and LPX-Bern models

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio ( δ 13 C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO 2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio between the CO 2 partial pressure in the intercellular cavities and the atmosphere ( c i / c a ) and of the ratio of assimilation to stomatal conductance, termed intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We performed isotope-enabled simulations over the industrial period with the land biosphere module (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model and the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern) dynamic global vegetation model. Results for C3 tree species show good agreement with a global compilation of δ 13 C measurements on leaves, though modeled 13 C discrimination by C3 trees is smaller in arid regions than measured. A compilation of 76 tree-ring records, mainly from Europe, boreal Asia, and western North America, suggests on average small 20th century changes in isotopic discrimination and in c i / c a and an increase in iWUE of about 27% since 1900. LPX-Bern results match these century-scale reconstructions, supporting the idea that the physiology of stomata has evolved to optimize trade-offs between carbon gain by assimilation and water loss by transpiration. In contrast, CLM4.5 simulates an increase in discrimination and in turn a change in iWUE that is almost twice as large as that revealed by the tree-ring data. Factorial simulations show that these changes are mainly in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . The results suggest that the downregulation of c i / c a and of photosynthesis by nitrogen limitation is possibly too strong in the standard setup of CLM4.5 or that there may be problems associated with the implementation of conductance, assimilation, and related adjustment processes on long-term environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially Averaged Ice Contents of Ice-Wedge Polygon Cross-Sections to 3-m Depth, July 2013, Utqiagvik, Alaska

This dataset contains spatially averaged estimates of ice content (volume percent) for two-dimensional cross-sectional profiles (from trough center to trough center to a depth of 3 meters) of low- and flat-centered ice-wedge polygons (three of each type) located near Utqiagvik, Alaska. A combination of soil pits, trenches, and cores were used to describe, sample, and map the cross-section stratigraphy of soil horizons and ice wedges for each polygon at 6 depth intervals. Observed soil horizons were assigned to four types with increasing amounts of organic components (mineral, mineral/organic, organic/mineral, and organic). The average ice contents of each soil horizon type below the permafrost boundary and wedge ice were weighted by their cross-sectional area fractions to calculate spatially averaged estimates of ice content for each polygon. In the active layer, spatially averaged estimates of volumetric water contents were similarly determined and reported here as “ice” content to enable estimates of the soil’s structurally competent porosity and excess ice in permafrost layers. In this dataset, the file AK13_ice_contents.csv includes cross-sectional area fractions and spatially averaged ice contents for soil layers and horizon types at the six depth intervals. The file AK13_permafrost_ice_fractions.csv contains the calculated partitioning of ice contents into pore ice and excess ice fractions for the three permafrost-dominated depth intervals. In addition, there is a data dictionary file for each of these data files and a file-level metadata file. These data were generated by the Department of Energy’s Soil Carbon Response to Environmental Change Scientific Focus Area and were used as inputs to model simulations examining the consequences of thaw-affected subsidence and microtopography change on active layer thickness of low-relief polygonal tundra landscapes in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

We report that eroding permafrost coasts are likely indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008–2017 for a 9 km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007–2016 decade was 17.2 m yr -1 , which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr -1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr -1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Finally, our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Model of the Eye/Optic Nerve Head Biomechanical Environment

Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome is a concern for long-duration space flight. Previously, it has been suggested that ocular changes observed in VIIP syndrome are related to the cephalad fluid shift that results in altered fluid pressures [1]. We are investigating the impact of changes in intracranial pressure (ICP) using a combination of numerical models, which simulate the effects of various environment conditions, including finite element (FE) models of the posterior eye. The specific interest is to understand how altered pressures due to gravitational changes affect the biomechanical environment of tissues of the posterior eye and optic nerve sheath. METHODS: Additional description of the numerical modeling is provided in the IWS abstract by Nelson et al. In brief, to simulate the effects of a cephalad fluid shift on the cardiovascular and ocular systems, we utilized a lumped-parameter compartment model of these systems. The outputs of this lumped-parameter model then inform boundary conditions (pressures) for a finite element model of the optic nerve head (Figure 1). As an example, we show here a simulation of postural change from supine to 15 degree head-down tilt (HDT), with primary outcomes being the predicted change in strains at the optic nerve head (ONH) region, specifically in the lamina cribrosa (LC), retrolaminar optic nerve, and prelaminar neural tissue (PLNT). The strain field can be decomposed into three orthogonal components, denoted as the first, second and third principal strains. We compare the peak tensile (first principal) and compressive (third principal) strains, since elevated strain alters cell phenotype and induces tissue remodeling. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our lumped-parameter model predicted an IOP increase of c. 7 mmHg after 21 minutes of 15 degree HDT, which agreed with previous reports of IOP in HDT [1]. The corresponding FEM simulations predicted a relative increase in the magnitudes of the peak tensile and compressive strains in the lamina cribrosa of 42 and 43, respectively (Fig. 2). The corresponding changes in the optic nerve strains were 17 and 39, while in the PLNT they were 47 and 43. These magnitudes of relative elevations in peak strains may induce a phenotypic response in resident mechano-responsive resident cells [2]. This approach may be expanded to investigate other environmental changes (e.g. parabolic flight). Through our VIIP SCHOLAR project, we will validate and improve these integrated models by measuring patient-specific changes in optic nerve sheath geometry in patients with idiopathic intracranial hypertension before and after lumbar puncture and CSF removal.

biomechanics↗

A century of genetic variation inferred from a persistent soil‐stored seed bank

Abstract Stratigraphic accretion of dormant propagules in soil can result in natural archives useful for studying ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change. Few attempts have been made, however, to use soil‐stored seed banks as natural archives, in part because of concerns over nonrandom attrition and mixed stratification. Here, we examine the persistent seed bank of Schoenoplectus americanus , a foundational brackish marsh sedge, to determine whether it can serve as a resource for reconstructing historical records of demographic and population genetic variation. After assembling profiles of the seed bank from radionuclide‐dated soil cores, we germinated seeds to “resurrect” cohorts spanning the 20th century. Using microsatellite markers, we assessed genetic diversity and differentiation among depth cohorts, drawing comparisons to extant plants at the study site and in nearby and more distant marshes. We found that seed density peaked at intermediate soil depths. We also detected genotypic differences among cohorts as well as between cohorts and extant plants. Genetic diversity did not decline with depth, indicating that the observed pattern of differentiation is not due to attrition. Patterns of differentiation within and among extant marshes also suggest that local populations persist as aggregates of small clones, likely reflecting repeated seedling recruitment and low immigration from admixed regional gene pools. These findings indicate that persistent and stratified soil‐stored seed banks merit further consideration as resources for reconstructing decadal‐ to century‐long records that can lend insight into the tempo and nature of ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Mechanisms Underlying Heterotrophic CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in a Peatland with Deep Soil Warming and Atmospheric CO 2 Enrichment

This project was funded from June 15, 2012 through June 15, 2015, with a no-cost extension until Sept. 15, 2016. Our project focused on a whole-ecosystem warming and enhanced atmospheric CO 2 experiment in the S1 Bog in Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA called “Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change” (SPRUCE; http://mnspruce.ornl.gov). Construction of substantial infrastructure required for these treatments was beyond our control and led to a staggered initiation of experimental treatments at this site. Deep peat heating (DPH) was instituted in June 2014, whole-ecosystem warming began in August 2015, and the CO 2 enhancement began in June 2016. Prior to the initiation of the experimental treatments, we completed a large amount of research to better understand factors controlling anaerobic carbon (C) cycling, and particularly methane (CH 4 ) dynamics, in northern peatlands in an effort to put the SPRUCE project in a broader context. We additionally focused extensively on the DPH treatment, which provided a unique opportunity to isolate warming effects on the vast reservoir of permanently anaerobic C stored in peatlands below the water table.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining Chemistry, Material Science, Inspiration from nature, and Serendipity to Develop Stimuli-responsive Polymeric Materials

Neither of us can remember people talking about stimuli-responsive polymers when we were students. Even though this was still in the last century, it was almost 70 years after Staudinger's seminal paper "uber Polymerisation"![1] By the time we entered graduate school in the early 1990 s, the first papers on polymer light emitting diodes appeared, while research on electrically conducting, nonlinear optical, and other "functional" polymers was already in full swing. Looking back, there were some stimuli-responsive materials that were around at the time, but it took the better part of the last 30 years until the field had developed into what we think is one of the most vibrant areas of polymer science. Before the potential usefulness of this class of materials was recognized, researchers were focused on developing polymeric materials that would not respond to external influences, and in fact maintain (in particular) their mechanical properties in a wide range of environments. This has led to the development of many environmentally robust polymers, which have come to impact basically every aspect of our daily life. Ironically, this long-sought stability now comes back to haunt us in the form of plastic pollution, but this is another story. The concept of materials that adapt their properties in response to changing environmental conditions might appear like a complete reversal with respect to the original goals of creating stable materials. However, eventually a) it was recognized that materials that respond to a specific stimulus in a predictable and useful manner would significantly broaden the potential usefulness of polymers, and b) the field of polymer science had developed to the point where the rational design, preparation, and characterization of such materials became possible. The expression 'stimuli-responsive polymer' had been first used in the 1980's, however its use really only gained popularity a few decades later. In the early days, terms such as environmentally-sensitive or environmentally-responsive polymers, stimuli-reversible or stimuli-sensitive polymers, or polymers with phase transitions have also been used.

Rowan, Stuart J.↗

The Application of Traits-Based Assessment Approaches to Estimate the Effects of Hydroelectric Turbine Passage on Fish Populations

One of the most important environmental issues facing the hydropower industry is the adverse impact of hydroelectric projects on downstream fish passage. Fish that migrate long distances as part of their life cycle include not only important diadromous species (such as salmon, shads, and eels) but also strictly freshwater species. The hydropower reservoirs that downstream-moving fish encounter differ greatly from free-flowing rivers. Many of the environmental changes that occur in a reservoir (altered water temperature and transparency, decreased flow velocities, increased predation) can reduce survival. Upon reaching the dam, downstream-migrating fish may suffer increased mortality as they pass through the turbines, spillways and other bypasses, or turbulent tailraces. Downstream from the dam, insufficient environmental flow releases may slow downstream fish passage rates or decrease survival.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗