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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24

Study of advanced fuel system concepts for commercial aircraft

An analytical study was performed in order to assess relative performance and economic factors involved with alternative advanced fuel systems for future commercial aircraft operating with broadened property fuels. The DC-10-30 wide-body tri-jet aircraft and the CF6-8OX engine were used as a baseline design for the study. Three advanced systems were considered and were specifically aimed at addressing freezing point, thermal stability and lubricity fuel properties. Actual DC-10-30 routes and flight profiles were simulated by computer modeling and resulted in prediction of aircraft and engine fuel system temperatures during a nominal flight and during statistical one-day-per-year cold and hot flights. Emergency conditions were also evaluated. Fuel consumption and weight and power extraction results were obtained. An economic analysis was performed for new aircraft and systems. Advanced system means for fuel tank heating included fuel recirculation loops using engine lube heat and generator heat. Environmental control system bleed air heat was used for tank heating in a water recirculation loop. The results showed that fundamentally all of the three advanced systems are feasible but vary in their degree of compatibility with broadened-property fuel.

Coffinberry, G. A.↗

A Computational Review of Privacy-Preserving Mechanisms for the Smart Grid

Smart grid technologies have rapidly become one of the largest and most comprehensive sources of data for the modern utility. For the most part, data streams are seen as an essential tool that enable utilities to carry their day-to-day business operations, but they also create the need for efficient and secure data management strategies. In the context of the smart grid, ensuring data privacy is becoming an increasing concern due to a combination of factors that range from shifts in operational paradigms and rapid technology evolution to changes in legislation. Furthermore, researchers have highlighted the risks associated with improperly protected energy records. For example, energy consumption data from homes could be used to infer the behaviors and habits of home occupants through activity recognition or user profiling (Fan, 2017), which may lead to unfair service pricing, targeted advertising, or other personal security violations. Similarly, Electric Vehicles’ (EVs) charging metadata could be used to reveal private information about the owner such as their payment methods, preferred charging stations, and other locational and timing information that could be used to reconstruct the vehicle owner’s behaviors. The privacy of user data, even when used for statistical analysis or machine learning training processes, also needs to be carefully considered, as an individual’s private traits may still be vulnerable if their inclusion/exclusion greatly impacts the result or could be linked to a public dataset through cross-reference. The breach of user privacy also has severe impacts for organizations that store, transmit, or work on the data in the form of diminishing the public’s trust in them while potentially incurring legal consequences (e.g., fines and suspensions under the European Union General Data Protection Regulation, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, etc.). Because of these risks, several privacy-preserving mechanisms are available to help organizations comply with privacy legislations and prevent the unauthorized and malicious use of user data. In light of these concerns, this report focuses on performing a computational review of privacy-preserving mechanisms that have received a significant amount of interest in literature. It specifically focuses on 1) homomorphic encryption, 2) zero-knowledge proofs, 3) differential privacy, and 4) federated learning. It is worth noting that although many of the methods presented in this document rely on cryptographic primitives, their intent is not to provide perfect secrecy, but rather to enable users to maintain privacy, and thus they shall not be compared or equated to other constructs that are aimed to address cybersecurity constructs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On the radio variability of V410 Tauri

The radio flux density of the star V410 Tauri has been monitored at 6 and 2 cm wavelengths at monthly intervals over a one-year period with the VLA. In contrast to earlier observations, the radio emission was typically at the level of roughly 1 mJy with flat or negative spectral indices. No large radio 'flare' events were detected. However, a periodicity analysis of the quiescent data shows statistically significant evidence for a modulation of the radio emission, with a period of 0.933 days, or one-half the optical period reported by Vrba, et al. (1988). If the modulation is real, it would imply that (1) the radio emission is produced either in localized zones on two opposite hemispheres of the star, or in a single, presumably high-latitude, structure that remains visible for an entire rotation period; (2) this zone or zones must be comparable to the stellar radius in size; (3) the energy spectrum of the radiating electrons is stable over long times (greater than 1 yr) but the absolute intensity level in the quiescent state may vary by factors of a few; and (4) the emission solid angle varies with viewing angle of the emission zone. It is suggested that gyrosynchrotron radiation from closed-loop magnetic structures may be responsible for the quasisteady low-level radio emission reported here. A geometric model for the radio emission structure may explain qualitatively the modulation of the radio emission. By analogy with the premain-sequence star DoAr 21, this same physical mechanism may produce both the 'quiescent' and 'flaring' radio emission. The monitoring results suggest that strong radio outbursts, such as were previously observed for V410 Tau, are relatively rare.

Bieging, John H.↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Numerical Analysis of High-Order Modes in SRF Resonators for Particle Accelerators

Over the past decades, superconducting technology has rapidly evolved towards high accelerating gradients and low surface resistance, making it possible to operate particle accelerators with high average beam currents and large duty factors. However, RF losses due to coherent excitation of the HOM become the limiting factor for these regimes. Unlike the cavity operating mode, which is tuned separately, the HOM parameters can significantly vary from one cavity to another due to finite mechanical tolerances during the manufacturing process. Thus, it is of utmost importance to know the HOM parameter spread in advance in order to predict unexpected cryogenic losses, overheating of beam line components and maintain stable beam dynamics. In this paper, we present a method for generating cavity geometry with an arbitrary spread of mechanical imperfections and numerically evaluating HOM statistics. Knowing the spread of HOM parameters, we calculated the probability of resonant HOM losses in SRF accelerating cavities used in CW beam current machines such as the PIP-II and LCLS-II linacs, as well as for the SRF crab-cavity for the ILC project. Finally, we present experimental results of HOM spectra measurements in hundreds of 1.3 GHz cavities installed in LCLS-II cryomodules. Studying the effects of HOM excitation results in specifications of the SRF cavity and cryomodule and can significantly impact the efficiency and reliability of the machine operation.

Lunin, Andrei [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000290096792)↗

Causal Directions Matter: How Environmental Factors Drive Convective Cloud Detrainment Heights

This study investigates how environmental factors influence the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) in deep convective clouds. Through a novel application of the Linear Non‐Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we discover causal structures between environmental variables and LMD, observed at six tropical sites operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. LiNGAM effectively identifies causal directions among variables of interest, revealing robust relationships such as those among the lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and convective inhibition (CIN), aligning with prior knowledge. Relative humidity is shown to directly influence LMD; however, this relationship exhibits strong nonlinearity and becomes difficult to detect when the contrast between oceanic and continental environments is excluded from the analysis. This study highlights the importance of establishing causal relationships before performing statistical inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗

Updated MISR Dark Water Research Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm - Part 1: Coupled 1.1 km Ocean Surface Chlorophyll a Retrievals with Empirical Calibration Corrections

As aerosol amount and type are key factors in the 'atmospheric correction' required for remote-sensing chlorophyll alpha concentration (Chl) retrievals, the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) can contribute to ocean color analysis despite a lack of spectral channels optimized for this application. Conversely, an improved ocean surface constraint should also improve MISR aerosol-type products, especially spectral single-scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals. We introduce a coupled, self-consistent retrieval of Chl together with aerosol over dark water. There are time-varying MISR radiometric calibration errors that significantly affect key spectral reflectance ratios used in the retrievals. Therefore, we also develop and apply new calibration corrections to the MISR top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance data, based on comparisons with coincident MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations and trend analysis of the MISR TOA bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) over three pseudo-invariant desert sites. We run the MISR research retrieval algorithm (RA) with the corrected MISR reflectances to generate MISR-retrieved Chl and compare the MISR Chl values to a set of 49 coincident SeaBASS (SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System) in situ observations. Where Chl(sub in situ) less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), the results from our Chl model are expected to be of highest quality, due to algorithmic assumption validity. Comparing MISR RA Chl to the 49 coincident SeaBASS observations, we report a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.86, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.25, and a median absolute error (MAE) of 0.10. Statistically, a two-sample Kolmogorov- Smirnov test indicates that it is not possible to distinguish between MISR Chl and available SeaBASS in situ Chl values (p greater than 0.1). We also compare MODIS-Terra and MISR RA Chl statistically, over much broader regions. With about 1.5 million MISR-MODIS collocations having MODIS Chl less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), MISR and MODIS show very good agreement: r = 0.96, MAE = 0.09, and RMSE = 0.15. The new dark water aerosol/Chl RA can retrieve Chl in low-Chl, case I waters, independent of other imagers such as MODIS, via a largely physical algorithm, compared to the commonly applied statistical ones. At a minimum, MISR's multi-angle data should help reduce uncertainties in the MODIS-Terra ocean color retrieval where coincident measurements are made, while also allowing for a more robust retrieval of particle properties such as spectral single-scattering albedo.

Limbacher, James A.↗

Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Investigation of a geodesy coexperiment to the Gravity Probe B relativity gyroscope program

Geodesy is the science of measuring the gravitational field of and positions on the Earth. Estimation of the gravitational field via gravitation gradiometry, the measurement of variations in the direction and magnitude of gravitation with respect to position, is this dissertation's focus. Gravity Probe B (GP-B) is a Stanford satellite experiment in gravitational physics. GP-B will measure the precession the rotating Earth causes on the space time around it by observing the precessions of four gyroscopes in a circular, polar, drag-free orbit at 650 km altitude. The gyroscopes are nearly perfect niobium-coated spheres of quartz, operating at 1.8 K to permit observations with extremely low thermal noise. The permissible gyroscope drift rate is miniscule, so the torques on the gyros must be tiny. A drag-free control system, by canceling accelerations caused by nongravitational forces, minimizes the support forces and hence torques. The GP-B system offers two main possibilities for geodesy. One is as a drag-free satellite to be used in trajectory-based estimates of the Earth's gravity field. We described calculations involving that approach in our previous reports, including comparison of laser only, GPS only, and combined tracking and a preliminary estimate of the possibility of estimating relativistic effects on the orbit. The second possibility is gradiometry. This technique has received a more cursory examination in previous reports, so we concentrate on it here. We explore the feasibility of using the residual suspension forces centering the GP-B gyros as gradiometer signals for geodesy. The objective of this work is a statistical prediction of the formal uncertainty in an estimate of the Earth's gravitation field using data from GP-B. We perform an instrument analysis and apply two mathematical techniques to predict uncertainty. One is an analytical approach using a flat-Earth approximation to predict geopotential information quality as a function of spatial wavelength. The second estimates the covariance matrix arising in a least-squares estimate of a spherical harmonic representation of the geopotential using GP-B gradiometer data. The results show that the GP-B data set can be used to create a consistent estimate of the geopotential up to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. The formal uncertainty of all coefficients between degrees 5 and 50 is reduced by factors of up to 30 over current satellite-only estimates and up to 7 over estimates which include surface data. The primary conclusion resulting from this study is that the gravitation gradiometer geodesy coexperiment to GP-B is both feasible and attractive.

Everitt, C. W. F.↗

Finding Mars-Sized Planets in Inner Orbits of Other Stars by Photometry

High precision photometry from a spaceborne telescope has the potential of discovering sub-earth sized inner planets. Model calculations by Wetherill indicate that Mars-sized planets can be expected to form throughout the range of orbits from that of Mercury to Mars. While a transit of an Earth-sized planet causes a 0.084% decrease in brightness from a solar-like star, a transit of a planet as small as Mars causes a flux decrease of only 0.023%. Stellar variability will be the limiting factor for transit measurements. Recent analysis of solar variability from the SOLSTICE experiment shows that much of the variability is in the UV at <400 nm. Combining this result with the total flux variability measured by the ACRIM-1 photometer implies that the Sun has relative amplitude variations of about 0.0007% in the 17-69 pHz bandpass and is presumably typical for solar-like stars. Tests were conducted at Lick Observatory to determine the photometric precision of CCD detectors in the 17-69 pHz bandpass. With frame-by-frame corrections of the image centroids it was found that a precision of 0.001% could be readily achieved, corresponding to a signal to noise ratio of 1.4, provided the telescope aperture was sufficient to keep the statistical noise below 0.0006%. With 24 transits a planet as small as Mars should be reliably detectable. If Wetherill's models are correct in postulating that Mars-like planets are present in Mercury-like orbits, then a six year search should be able to find them.

Borucki, W.↗

Why Income Comparison is Rational

A major factor affecting a person s happiness is the gap between their income and their neighbors , independent of their own income. This effect is strongest when the neighbor has moderately higher income. In addition a person s lifetime happiness often follows a "U" shape. Previous models have explained subsets of these phenomena, typically assuming the person has limited ability to assess their own (hedonic) utility. Here I present a model that explains all the phenomena, without such assumptions. In this model greater income of your neighbor is statistical data that, if carefully analyzed, would recommend that you explore for a new income-generating strategy. This explains unhappiness that your neighbor has greater income, as an emotional "prod" that induces you to explore, in accord with careful statistical analysis. It explains the "U" shape of happiness similarly. Another benefit of this model is that it makes many falsifiable predictions.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Biopolymer-Templated Titania Film Formation for Nanostructured Coatings Revealed by Machine Learning-Supported Time-Resolved Analysis

This study presents a machine learning approach to derive the film formation of biopolymer-templated titania nanostructures during spray deposition, in combination with in situ grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS). A neural network trained on synthetic GISAXS data directly predicts domain-size distributions from experimental two-dimensional scattering patterns, capturing the full kinetics of nanostructure evolution with high temporal resolution. The predictions reveal hierarchical size distributions and periodic growth features, consistent with layer-by-layer spray deposition and validated by complementary scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging. Quantitative comparison with conventional parametric GISAXS fits shows good qualitative agreement, with systematic differences explained by domain-shape assumptions and resolved by applying a geometric scaling factor. Simulated SEM-like surfaces derived from neural network outputs reproduce the porous, foam-like nanoscale morphology observed experimentally, reinforcing the method’s credibility. This integrated approach enables real-time, nondestructive, statistically averaged monitoring of bulk nanostructure development in functional coatings, offering a scalable methodology to accelerate the characterization and process control of sustainably manufactured nanostructured titania films for energy-related applications such as photocatalysis and photovoltaics.

Heger, JulianEliah↗

Uncertainty-Based Approach for Dynamic Aerodynamic Data Acquisition and Analysis

Development of improved modeling methods to provide increased fidelity of flight predictions for aircraft motions during flight in flow regimes with large nonlinearities requires improvements in test techniques for measuring and characterizing wind tunnel data. This paper presents a method for providing a measure of data integrity for static and forced oscillation test techniques. Data integrity is particularly important when attempting to accurately model and predict flight of today s high performance aircraft which are operating in expanded flight envelopes, often maneuvering at high angular rates at high angles-of-attack, even above maximum lift. Current aerodynamic models are inadequate in predicting flight characteristics in the expanded envelope, such as rapid aircraft departures and other unusual motions. Present wind tunnel test methods do not factor changes of flow physics into data acquisition schemes, so in many cases data are obtained over more iterations than required, or insufficient data may be obtained to determine a valid estimate with statistical significance. Additionally, forced oscillation test techniques, one of the primary tools used to develop dynamic models, do not currently provide estimates of the uncertainty of the results during an oscillation cycle. A method to optimize the required number of forced oscillation cycles based on decay of uncertainty gradients and balance tolerances is also presented.

Heim, Eugene H. D.↗

Blood biochemical and cellular changes during decompression and simulated extravehicular activity

Blood biochemical and cellular parameters were measured in human subjects before and after exposure to a decompression schedule involving 6 h of oxygen prebreathing. The exposure was designed to simulate extravehicular activity for 6 h (subjects performed exercise while exposed to 29.6 kPa). There were no significant differences between blood samples from subjects who were susceptible (n = 11) versus those who were resistant (n = 27) to formation of venous gas emboli. Although several statistically significant (P less than 0.05) changes in blood parameters were observed following the exposure (increases in white blood cell count, prothrombin time, and total bilirubin, and decreases in triglycerides, very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and blood urea nitrogen), the changes were small in magnitude and blood factor levels remained within normal clinical ranges. Thus, the decompression schedule used in this study is not likely to result in blood changes that would pose a threat to astronauts during extravehicular activity.

Decompression Sickness/blood/etiology/prevention &↗

Statistical analysis and use of VAS radiance data

Researchers goals are to describe the information content of Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) radiance data, especially the 6.7 micrometers water vapor channel, to better interpret the atmosphere's water vapor structure from 6.7 micrometers imagery, and to investigate new analysis and forecasting techniques utilizing retrieved VAS soundings. Researchers made major progress toward these goals during FY-85. They are investigating 6.7 micrometer imagery on 6 to 7 March 1982, a day when special mesoscale ground truth data were collected during the 1982 atmospheric variability experiment/vertical amospheric sounder (AVE/VAS) field experiment. A dark (dry) image streak having mesoscale details was located over the special data region, and it provides the major focus of the case study. Mesoscale radiosonde-derived humidity data are found to verify fine scale features of the image that are not evident from the standard National Weather Service network. Thus, VAS imagery is a reliable detector of mesoscale moisture structure during this case. To investigate causes for the image streak, researchers are calculating water vapor budgets. Subsidence is found to be a factor in the current case as well; however, patterns of descent are not related to the jet streak according to traditional conceptual models. Thus, it appears that more research into jet stream dynamics is needed in order to better interpret 6.7 micrometer imagery.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Study of e + e − → π + π − π 0 at s from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV at BESIII

With the data samples taken at center-of-mass energies from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, a partial wave analysis on the e + e − → π + π − π 0 process is performed. The Born cross sections for e + e − → π + π − π 0 and its intermediate processes e + e − → ρ π and ρ ( 1450 ) π are measured as functions of s . The results for e + e − → π + π − π 0 are consistent with previous results measured with the initial state radiation method within one standard deviation, and improve the uncertainty by a factor of ten. By fitting the line shapes of the Born cross sections for the e + e − → ρ π and e + e − → ρ ( 1450 ) π , a structure with mass M = 2119 ± 11 ± 15 MeV / c 2 and width Γ = 69 ± 30 ± 5 MeV is observed with a significance of 5.9 σ , where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. This structure can be interpreted as an excited ω state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗