Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Life prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24

Analyses of transcriptomes and the first complete genome of Leucocalocybe mongolica provide new insights into phylogenetic relationships and conservation

In this study, we report a de novo assembly of the first high-quality genome for a wild mushroom species Leucocalocybe mongolica (LM). We performed high-throughput transcriptome sequencing to analyze the genetic basis for the life history of LM. Our results show that the genome size of LM is 46.0 Mb, including 26 contigs with a contig N50 size of 3.6 Mb. In total, we predicted 11,599 protein-coding genes, of which 65.7% (7630) could be aligned with high confidence to annotated homologous genes in other species. We performed phylogenetic analyses using genes form 3269 single-copy gene families and showed support for distinguishing LM from the genus Tricholoma (L.) P.Kumm., in which it is sometimes circumscribed. We believe that one reason for limited wild occurrences of LM may be the loss of key metabolic genes, especially carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), based on comparisons with other closely related species. The results of our transcriptome analyses between vegetative (mycelia) and reproductive (fruiting bodies) organs indicated that changes in gene expression among some key CAZyme genes may help to determine the switch from asexual to sexual reproduction. Taken together, our genomic and transcriptome data for LM comprise a valuable resource for both understanding the evolutionary and life history of this species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of helium bubbles on the bulk equation of state of gold under static compression

Nuclear materials often evolve into two-phase systems comprising a bulk matrix with dispersed inert-gas bubbles. The presence of these bubbles can have consequences to the thermomechanical response of materials and is a key life-limiting factor in some nuclear fuel forms. Understanding the behavior of these two-phase, bubble-matrix systems is, thus, important to improved predictive models and frameworks for many nuclear materials applications. While temperature excursions of these two-phase systems have been characterized, fewer studies have focused on the evolution of inert-gas bubbles under pressure. Here, in this paper, we use x-ray tools to interrogate a He-implanted gold foil to determine the pressure-dependent evolution of the individual components (Au matrix + bubbles), and we compare that total pressure dependence to theoretical equation-of-state descriptions based on mixing rules.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Control of Weld Residual Stress in a Thin Steel Plate through Low Transformation Temperature Welding Consumables

Low transformation temperature welding (LTTW) consumables are characterized by a low martensite start temperature and a large fraction of martensite forming in the weld. It can efficiently reduce the tensile residual stress because the volume expansion associated with the martensitic transformation compensates for the thermal contraction during cooling. In this work, a LTTW wire, designated as EH200B, was created for the arc welding of advanced high-strength steel thin plates. In comparison to conventional ER70S-3 wires, this LTTW wire generated an opposite distortion pattern. Neutron diffraction measurements along the center thickness of the welded plates showed the maximum residual stress along the longitudinal direction (LD) in the weld region, and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) immediately adjacent to the weld region was reduced from ~330 MPa to below 240 MPa by using the LTTW wire. A finite element (FE) model was developed to predict the residual stress distributions of the plates welded under these two wires. The simulation results showed reasonable agreement with the volume-average neutron diffraction data. Compressive residual stress in the weld region using the LTTW wire was predicted by the FE method. Electron backscattered diffraction and x-ray diffraction measurements confirmed ~90% martensite was present in the LTTW weld. The fatigue life of DP980 steel lap joint panels using EH200B wire nearly doubled that of ER70S-3 wire. This improvement was attributed to the high strength and low LD residual stress in the weld and HAZ immediately adjacent to the weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predicting defects in laser powder bed fusion using in-situ thermal imaging data and machine learning

Variation in the local thermal history during the Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) can cause micropore defects, which add to the uncertainty of the mechanical properties (e.g., fatigue life, tensile strength) of the built materials. In-situ sensing has been proposed for monitoring the AM process to minimize defects, but successful minimization requires establishing a quantitative relationship between the sensing data and the porosity, which is particularly challenging with a large number of variables (e.g., laser speed, power, scan path, powder property). Physics-based modeling can simulate such an in-situ sensing-porosity relationship, but it is computationally costly. In this work, we develop Machine Learning (ML) models that can use in-situ thermographic data to predict the micropore of LPBF stainless steel materials. This work considers two identified key features from the thermal histories: the time above the apparent melting threshold ($\tau$) and the maximum radiance ( T max ). These features are computed, stored for each voxel in the built material, and then used as inputs. The binary state of each voxel, either defective or normal, is the output. Different ML models are trained and tested for the binary classification task. In addition to using the thermal features of each voxel to predict its own state, the thermal features of neighboring voxels are also included as inputs. This is shown to improve the prediction accuracy, which is consistent with thermal transport physics around each voxel contributing to its final state. Among the models trained, the F1 scores on test sets reach above 0.96 for Random Forests. Feature importance analysis based on the ML models shows that T max is more important to the voxel state than $\tau$ . The analysis also finds that the thermal history of the voxels above the present voxel is more influential than those beneath it. Our study significantly extends the capability of using in-situ thermographic data to predict porosity in LPBF materials. Finally, since ML models are fast, they may play integral roles in the optimization and control of such AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding local plant extinctions before it is too late: bridging evolutionary genomics with global ecology

Understanding evolutionary genomic and population processes within a species range is key to anticipating the extinction of plant species before it is too late. However, most models of biodiversity risk under global change do not account for the genetic variation and local adaptation of different populations. Population diversity is critical to understanding extinction because different populations may be more or less susceptible to global change and, if lost, would reduce the total diversity within a species. Here, two new modeling frameworks advance our understanding of extinction from a population and evolutionary angle: Rapid climate change-driven disruptions in population adaptation are predicted from associations between genomes and local climates. Furthermore, losses of population diversity from global land-use transformations are estimated by scaling relationships of species' genomic diversity with habitat area. Overall, these global eco-evolutionary methods advance the predictability – and possibly the preventability – of the ongoing extinction of plant species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stream and ocean hydrodynamics mediate partial migration strategies in an amphidromous Hawaiian goby

Abstract Partial migration strategies, in which some individuals migrate but others do not, are widely observed in populations of migratory animals. Such patterns could arise via variation in migratory behaviors made by individual animals, via genetic variation in migratory predisposition, or simply by variation in migration opportunities mediated by environmental conditions. Here we use spatiotemporal variation in partial migration across populations of an amphidromous Hawaiian goby to test whether stream or ocean conditions favor completing its life cycle entirely within freshwater streams rather than undergoing an oceanic larval migration. Across 35 watersheds, microchemical analysis of otoliths revealed that most adult Awaous stamineus were freshwater residents (62% of n = 316 in 2009, 83% of n = 274 in 2011), but we found considerable variation among watersheds. We then tested the hypothesis that the prevalence of freshwater residency increases with the stability of stream flows and decreases with the availability of dispersal pathways arising from ocean hydrodynamics. We found that streams with low variation of daily discharge were home to a higher incidence of freshwater residents in each survey year. The magnitude of the shift in freshwater residency between survey years was positively associated with predicted interannual variability in the success of larval settlement in streams on each island based on passive drift in ocean currents. We built on these findings by developing a theoretical model of goby life history to further evaluate whether mediation of migration outcomes by stream and ocean hydrodynamics could be sufficient to explain the range of partial migration frequency observed across populations. The model illustrates that the proportion of larvae entering the ocean and differential survival of freshwater‐resident versus ocean‐going larvae are plausible mechanisms for range‐wide shifts in migration strategies. Thus, we propose that hydrologic variation in both ocean and stream environments contributes to spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of migration phenotypes in A. stamineus . Our empirical and theoretical results suggest that the capacity for partial migration could enhance the persistence of metapopulations of diadromous fish when confronted with variable ocean and stream conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Process modeling, techno-economic assessment, and life cycle assessment of the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 : a review

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional fossil-based technologies for the synthesis of chemicals. Its industrial implementation could lead to a reduction in the carbon footprint of chemicals and the mitigation of climate change impacts caused by hard-to-decarbonize industrial applications, among other benefits. However, the current low technology readiness levels of such emerging technologies make it hard to predict their performance at industrial scales. During the past few years, researchers have developed diverse techniques to model and assess the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 toward its industrial implementation. The aim of this literature review is to provide a comprehensive overview of techno-economic and life cycle assessment methods and pave the way for future assessment approaches. First, we identify which modeling approaches have been conducted to extend analysis to the production scale. Next, we explore the metrics used to evaluate such systems, regarding technical, environmental, and economic aspects. Finally, we assess the challenges and research opportunities for the industrial implementation of CO 2 reduction via electrolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease

Black swan events in infectious disease describe rare but devastatingly large outbreaks. While experts are skeptical that such events are predictable, it might be possible to identify the warning signs of a black swan event. Specifically, following the initiation of an outbreak, key differentiating features could serve as alerts. Such features could be derived from meta-analyses of large outbreaks for multiple infectious diseases. We hypothesized there may be common features among the pathogen, environment, and host epidemiological triad that characterize an infectious disease black swan event. Using Los Alamos National Laboratory’s tool, Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks, we investigated historical disease outbreak information and anomalous events for several infectious diseases. By studying 32 different infectious diseases and global outbreaks, we observed that in the past 20–30 years, there have been potential black swan events in the majority of infectious diseases analyzed. Importantly, these potential black swan events cannot be attributed to the first introduction of the disease to a susceptible host population. This paper describes our observations and perspectives and illustrates the value of broad analysis of data across the infectious disease realm, providing insights that may not be possible when we focus on singular infectious agents or diseases. Data analytics could be developed to warn health authorities at the beginning of an outbreak of an impending black swan event. Such tools could complement traditional epidemiological modeling to help forecast future large outbreaks and facilitate timely warning and effective, targeted resource allocation for mitigation efforts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Discovery of the new isotope 251 Lr and the α-decay fine structure in 253 L

The products of the 203, 205 Tl ( 50 Ti, 2n) fusion-evaporation reactions were studied using the recently commissioned Argonne Gas-Filled Analyzer at Argonne National Laboratory. Two α-decay activities with energies of 9210(19) and 9246(19) keV and half-lives of $42^{+42}_{-14}$ and $24.4^{+7.0}_{-4.5}$ ms were observed which were followed by the known α decays of 247 Md and 243 Es . They are interpreted as originating from the 1/2 ⁻ [521] and 7/2 ⁻ [514] single-proton Nilsson states in the hitherto unknown isotope 251 Lr . From the measured Q α values the 1/2 ⁻ level was placed 117(27) keV above the 7/2 - level in 251 Lr in contrast to 255 Lr where the 1/2 ⁻ level is the lowest. Also, the α decay of 253 Lr was studied in more detail and a new α line at 8660(20) keV was found and a new half-life value of 2.46(32) s for an isomeric state in 253 Lr was measured. The 251, 253, 255 Lr Q α values were compared with predictions of various mass models. The relative energies of the 1/2 ⁻ [521] and 7/2 ⁻ [514] single-proton Nilsson states in 251, 253, 255 Lr isotopes were compared with results of the cranking shell model with pairing treated using the particle-number-conserving method. The level separation and, in particular, the level order change between 251 Lr and 255 Lr was reproduced only when the hexacontetrapole deformation ϵ 6 was included in the calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The microbiome of a Pacific moon jellyfish Aurelia coerulea

The impact of microbiome in animal physiology is well appreciated, but characterization of animal-microbe symbiosis in marine environments remains a growing need. This study characterizes the microbial communities associated with the moon jellyfish Aurelia coerulea, first isolated from the East Pacific Ocean and has since been utilized as an experimental system. We find that the microbiome of this Pacific Aurelia culture is dominated by two taxa, a Mollicutes and Rickettsiales. The microbiome is stable across life stages, although composition varies. Mining the host sequencing data, we assembled the bacterial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs). The bacterial MAGs are highly reduced, and predict a high metabolic dependence on the host. Analysis using multiple metrics suggest that both bacteria are likely new species. We therefore propose the names Ca. Mariplasma lunae (Mollicutes) and Ca. Marinirickettsia aquamalans (Rickettsiales). Finally, comparison with studies of Aurelia from other geographical populations suggests the association with Ca. Mariplasma lunae occurs in Aurelia from multiple geographical locations. The low-diversity microbiome of Aurelia provides a relatively simple system to study host-microbe interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

PERCEPTIVE: an R shiny $\underline{p}$ipelin$\underline{e}$ for the p$\underline{r}$edi$\underline{c}$tion of $\underline{ep}$igenetic modula$\underline{t}$ors $\underline{i}$n no$\underline{v}$el sp$\underline{e}$cies

Epigenetic processes are central to regulating gene expression, genome stability, and metabolic function across the tree of life; yet, their roles remain underexplored in microalgae, especially as new species continue to be identified and characterized. This is likely due to the cumbersome nature and species-dependent attributes of epigenetic wet-lab methodologies, which preclude the rapid identification of epigenetic modifications and modulators. However, there is high conservation of epigenetic processes from budding yeast to humans; in many cases, one may infer how behavior and function are epigenetically regulated in novel species by identifying epigenetic modulators, or the proteins responsible for conferring epigenetic modifications. Here, to this end, we have developed a graphical software package, titled PERCEPTIVE (pipeline for the prediction of epigenetic modulators in novel species). This platform solely uses the genomic sequence of an algal species, and preexisting information from other model organisms, to predict the epigenetic modulators and associated modifications in algae. Predictions are presented to the user in a graphical interface, which provides literature-based interpretation of results, enabling users to quickly understand potential epigenetic processes in their algal species of interest and plan follow-up experiments. To test PERCEPTIVE, we predicted epigenetic modulators in several feedstock candidate algae species. To validate these predictions, wet-lab studies were performed, including mass spectrometry; these results underscore the high accuracy of PERCEPTIVE predictions. Overall, PERCEPTIVE represents a powerful in silico tool for the research and manipulation of algal species, which does not require a priori knowledge of epigenetics and is accessible to a broad set of investigators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗