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Results for “Model Predictive Control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shadow masks predictions in SPARC tokamak plasma-facing components using HEAT code and machine learning methods

Here, this work uses machine learning (ML) to complement HEAT (Heat flux Engineering Analysis Toolkit) by developing 3-D footprint surrogate models for fast and accurate heat load calculations in the divertor of the SPARC tokamak. The focus is on shadowed regions, or magnetic shadows, caused by the 3-D geometry of plasma-facing components (PFCs). ML classifiers are employed to create a surrogate model for HEAT generated shadow masks, predicting these shadow masks and divertor heat flux profiles based on a diverse range of equilibria and only the plasma current, safety factor(q95) at the edge, and magnetic flux angles as input parameters. The ultimate goal is to integrate the model for real-time control and future operational decisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping causal pathways with structural modes fingerprint for perovskite oxides

Abstract Causality is innate to the determination of the fundamental mechanism controlling any physical phenomena. However, combining causality within the standard practices of computational modelling to understand structure-functionality connections is extremely rare. This work proposes a fingerprint based on key structural modes for ABO 3 -type perovskite oxides and its derivatives, combined with causal models, for predicting Kohn–Sham energies. Our study of causal models captures the inherent coupling between structural modes such as rotation, tilt and antiferroelectric displacements, responsible for phase transition, polarization, magnetization and metal–insulator transition, exhibited by these materials. Although developed for modelling specific functionality, this method is universally applicable to derive other functionalities and even different material classes while tracking hidden causal mechanisms via structural distortions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {Z}{}{}} $ and ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {H}{}{}} $ production in the ${\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} {\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} $ final state using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $

A search for ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {Z}{}{}} $ and ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {H}{}{}} $ production in the ${\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} {\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} $ final state is presented, where H is the standard model (SM) Higgs boson. The search uses an event sample of proton-proton collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 133$\,\text {fb}^{-1}$ collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13$\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$ with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC. The analysis introduces several novel techniques for deriving and validating a multi-dimensional background model based on control samples in data. A multiclass multivariate classifier customized for the ${\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} {\text {b}{}{}} {\bar{{\text {b}{}{}}}{}{}} $ final state is developed to derive the background model and extract the signal. The data are found to be consistent, within uncertainties, with the SM predictions. The observed (expected) upper limits at 95% confidence level are found to be 3.8 (3.8) and 5.0 (2.9) times the SM prediction for the ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {Z}{}{}} $ and ${\text {Z}{}{}} {\text {H}{}{}} $ production cross sections, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Draft ASME Code Case to qualify L-PBF 316H material for Section III, Division 5 applications

This report documents the AMMT program’s development and submission of a draft ASME Code Case to qualify Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L PBF) Type 316H stainless steel for Section III, Divi-sion 5 Class A and SM high temperature nuclear applications. It summarizes the technical basis, the comprehensive high temperature mechanical test database assembled between 2023–2026, and the proposed code language and qualification framework submitted to ASME. The work was co-ordinated across multiple national laboratories and leverages prior ASME efforts to integrate additive manufacturing into the Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code. The body of the report describes the experimental database and analysis supporting the Code Case: tensile, creep, fatigue, creep fatigue, and thermal aging tests collected from multiple additive manufacturing sites, machine types, and powder lots, with material processed by a solution anneal heat treatment. The dataset — including both full size and subsized specimens and tests oriented parallel and perpendicular to build direction — shows limited tensile anisotropy, tensile properties comparable to wrought 316H, creep strength within the scatter of wrought material, but markedly reduced creep ductility above about 650 °C associated with rapid σ phase formation in L PBF microstructures. The draft Code Case itself prescribes a staged qualification model (manufacturing process qualification, component qualification, and per build witness testing), treats L PBF components as equivalent to Type 316 weld metal for design and inspection, and requires mechanical, chemical, and metallographic controls tied to ASTM/ISO 52946. Key acceptance criteria include tensile tests within a 90% prediction interval of the AMMT dataset, a creep fatigue screening test adapted from ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, HBB 2800 but with the cycle acceptance reduced to 100 for L PBF material, and double volumetric inspection of production components. The report concludes that the present data support treating L PBF 316H as analogous to conventional fusion weld metal for Division 5 design and inspection, while highlighting important caveats: the σ phase driven loss of creep ductility above ~650 °C, preliminary indications of enhanced creep fatigue sensitivity in some lots, and remaining gaps in long term aging and additional cyclic testing. Recommended next actions include completing outstanding cyclic and long duration creep/aging tests on the solution annealed condition, supporting inclusion of the 316H chemistry and heat treatment in ASTM/ISO 52946, and continuing engagement with ASME and NRC during balloting and review to enable industry adoption.

Messner, Mark C. (ORCID:0000000200404385)↗
DOE OSTI2025

15-minute Parker River gap-filled tide height and salinity data, PIE LTER, Plum Island Sound, MA (2014–2023), for ELM PFLOTRAN modeling

This dataset contains 15-minute tide height and salinity data from the Typha site along the Parker River, part of the Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (PIE LTER) site in Plum Island Sound, Massachusetts (MA) 2014-2023. Tide height (in NAVD88) was compiled from measurements conducted at the mouth of Plum Island Sound and corrected for time lags. Gap-filling of missing periods were done by fitting tidal constituents to the time series. Salinity was measured (and is stored on ESS DIVE ) in 2022 and 2023 using HOBO U24-002 conductivity loggers. River discharge is the most important control on tidal river water salinity at the location (Vallino & Hopkinson, 1998). An artificial neural network was trained to predict river water salinity at the location using Parker River discharge (USGS station 01101000, Parker River at Byfield, MA) and gap-filled salinity observations from a long-term monitoring station ca. 3km downstream from the Typha site (LTER station ‘Middle Road’) as input variables to create continuous time series information. The data set was used in the spin up and simulations of a land surface model coupled to a biogeochemical reaction network (ELM PFLOTRAN) assessing impacts of hydrology and salinity input on methane fluxes in 2022 and 2023 (Sulman et al., 2024). Metadata files ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_dd.csv and ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_flmd.csv provide details on site location, data variables, and QA/QC methods .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing approaches for introducing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to Ge(001) to seed graphene nanoribbon synthesis by CH 4 chemical vapor deposition

Here, we evaluate two approaches for introducing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to a graphene catalyst substrate as part of a two-step chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process for growing graphene nanoribbons (GNRs). In this process, PAHs first form graphene-like seeds on Ge, and then GNRs are subsequently evolved from these PAH-derived seeds via substrate-mediated anisotropic growth kinetics during the CVD of CH4. The first seeding approach sublimes controlled doses of PAH thin films into the CVD chamber, while the second delivers PAHs directly from the vapor phase at set concentrations. Using these two approaches, we measure the dependence of GNR density on PAH dose and compare the experimental results with predictions from a rate model of PAH diffusion, desorption, and clustering. We find that PAHs that more strongly adsorb to the catalyst surface (generally larger PAHs) desirably remain more individualized prior to GNR evolution whereas smaller, more weakly bound PAHs aggregate into larger clusters with various sizes on Ge that are undesirable for synthesizing more monodisperse GNRs. As a result, this work is important because it offers a framework that enables the rational selection and design of seed molecules, advancing anisotropic GNR CVD synthesis.

CVD↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced methane emissions in transgenic rice genotypes are associated with altered rhizosphere microbial hydrogen cycling

Rice paddies significantly contribute to atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). Here, we show that two independent rice genotypes overexpressing genes for PLANT PEPTIDES CONTAINING SULFATED TYROSINE (PSY) reduce cumulative CH 4 emissions by 38% (PSY1) and 58% (PSY2) over 70 days of growth compared with controls. Genome-resolved metatranscriptomic data from PSY rhizosphere soils reveal lower ratios of gene activities for (mostly hydrogenotrophic) CH 4 production versus consumption, decreased activity of H 2 -producing genes, and increased activity of bacterial H 2 oxidation pathways. Metabolic modeling using metagenomic and metabolomic data predicts elevated H 2 oxidation and suppressed H 2 production in the PSY rhizosphere. Assembled genomes of rhizosphere H 2 -oxidizing bacteria are enriched in genes utilizing gluconeogenic acids compared with H 2 -producing counterparts, and their activities are likely stimulated by elevated levels of gluconeogenic acids, primarily amino acids, in PSY root exudates. Overall, our study indicates that decreased CH 4 emissions are due to a lower amount of H 2 available for hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and provides a powerful strategy to mitigate CH 4 emissions from increasingly widespread rice cultivation.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct measurement of thermal Knudsen forces in rarefied gas environments

At micro- and nanoscales, momentum transfer between surfaces is influenced by various physical mechanisms, including quantum fluctuations, electromagnetic interactions, electric charges, and the dynamics of (rarefied) gases. Under non-isothermal conditions, rarefied gases give rise to thermal Knudsen forces whose magnitudes strongly depend on the gas species and surface characteristics. Knudsen forces are particularly relevant in nanotechnology, optical manipulation, and aerospace systems, where gas rarefaction occurs due to highly confined geometries, sub-micrometer length scales, and reduced particle densities. Despite their significance, predictive modeling of Knudsen forces is limited by a lack of comprehensive experimental data across diverse materials and surface morphologies. Here, in this work, we present a highly sensitive and adaptable measurement platform capable of directly quantifying Knudsen forces using a suspended, interchangeable micro-cantilever within controlled rarefied helium and nitrogen environments. The system integrates optical fiber interferometry to precisely capture out-of-plane displacements at sub-micrometer resolution, driven by Knudsen forces. From the empirical data, we derive a robust correlation linking the magnitudes of Knudsen forces to energy accommodation coefficients, offering deeper insights into the underlying gas–surface interaction mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust Data-Driven Predictive Run-to-Run Control for Automated Serial Sectioning

This letter presents a one-step predictive run-to-run controller (R2R-MPC) for the automation of mechanical serial sectioning (MSS), a destructive material analysis process. To address the inherent uncertainty and disturbances in the MSS process, a robust closed-loop approach is presented. Here, the robust R2R-MPC models the uncertainty of the MSS process using a linear differential inclusion. As an analytical model of the MSS process is unavailable, the differential inclusion is identified from historical data. The R2R-MPC is posed as an optimization problem that computes incremental changes to the control input which minimize the worst-case material removal errors. This optimization-based controller is combined with a run-to-run controller to provide integral action that rejects constant disturbances and tracks constant reference removal rates. To demonstrate the efficacy of our robust R2R-MPC, we present simulation results which compare the presented controller with a conventional non-robust R2R.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedback, physics, and forecasts: The emerging paradigm of machine learning-driven battery research

Machine learning (ML) is reshaping how we understand, predict, and optimize electrochemical systems. In batteries, ML accelerates discovery across chemistry, design, and operation by transforming massive experimental and simulated datasets into predictive, interpretable models. This review consolidates a decade of progress in ML-driven battery innovation, from early-cycle feature extraction to operando image analysis and physics-informed modeling. We categorize approaches by data domain and physical fidelity, emphasizing interpretable ML for diagnostics, reinforcement learning for control, and multi-objective optimization for lifetime extension strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate how integrated models accelerate discovery, reduce testing time, and guide sustainable design. Economic analyses furthermore illustrate how these advances can lower cost per cycle and improve circularity. Together, these developments chart a path toward self-optimizing, sustainable battery technologies.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER Technical Support for Aquantis (Modeling): Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-21-17763

NREL will provide numerical modelling support to Requestor by completing four successive stages of numerical modeling effort which are capable of accurate predicting the performance of the Aquantis turbine. NREL will develop a baseline OpenFAST model (a couple model of AeroDyn and ElastoDyn solver) of the Aquantis turbine, subsequently couples this model to OrcaFlex or within OpenFAST framework to preliminarily design and explore a full floating tidal turbine system in a control co-design process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Radiation-Induced Actinide Species in Solution

Our fundamental understanding of actinide radiation-induced redox chemistry is crucial due to their unavoidable exposure to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. Plutonium (Pu) and americium (Am) both possess multiple oxidation states, the careful manipulation of which are essential in the study and utilization of their rich chemistry, developing new nuclear technologies, and securing the long-term sustainability of nuclear power. However, knowledge in this area is far from complete. Consequently, we have studied the radiation-induced chemistry of both Pu and Am through a variety of techniques. Temperature-controlled electron pulse radiolysis has been used to study Am for the first time, determining the feasibility of Am redox reactions under used nuclear fuel reprocessing conditions, (e.g. nitric acid, non-ambient temperature). Additionally, we developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu redox chemistry due to radiolysis and disproportionation reactions in concentrated nitric acid solutions.

actinide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rigorous computation of short-range order unifies its controversial effects in complex concentrated alloys

Direct experimental observations of chemical short-range order (SRO) in complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) have triggered high interest. However, the reported effects of SRO on yield stresses are controversial, and their atomic-scale mechanisms are elusive, which limits our ability to utilize SRO in alloy design. Here we tackle this challenge using an advanced computational approach that rigorously takes into account the critical lattice distortion in CCAs and further verify our theoretical predictions with experiments. We show that the CoCrNi model alloy has a narrow temperature window around 670 °C for SRO formation. This explains why the mechanical effect of SRO is observed in some experiments but not in others. Here, we propose an effective alloy-doping method to control SRO and reveal atomic-bonding types that dominate SRO formation for different alloys. The strategies and insights generally apply to a broad spectrum of alloys, laying the foundation for designing advanced alloys by manipulating their SRO.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Active Learning to Rapidly Develop Machine Learned Diffusion Coefficients of CO 2 Conversion Reagents in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Here, we used a combined molecular dynamics/active learning (AL) approach to create machine learning models that can predict the diffusion coefficient of epichlorohydrin and chloropropene carbonate, the reactant and product of a common CO 2 cycloaddition reaction, in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Nanoporous MOFs are effective catalysts for the cycloaddition of CO 2 to epoxides. The diffusion rates within nanoporous catalysts can control the rate of reaction as the reactants and products must diffuse to the active sites within the MOF and then out of the nanoporous material for reusability. However, the diffusion process is routinely ignored when searching for new materials in catalytic applications. Here we verified improvement during the AL process by consistently tracking metrics on the same groups of MOFs to ensure consistency. Metal identity was found to have little impact on diffusion rates, while structural features like pore limiting diameter act as a threshold where a minimum value is needed for high diffusion rates. We identified the MOFs with the highest epichlorohydrin and chloropropene carbonate diffusion coefficients which can be used for further studies of reaction energetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Based Analysis of Cell Imbalances and Aging in Lithium-Ion Battery Modules and Packs

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) packs are a key solution for grid-scale energy storage, enabling grid resilience and supporting critical infrastructure. LIB modules and packs experience current imbalances and uneven cell aging due to various design and operational factors, and require a battery management system (BMS) to continuously monitor and control. In this context, a physics-based modeling framework for LIB modules and packs (liionpack) was enhanced to identify design and control strategies that minimize current imbalance and improve module/pack operation. Simulations of an 8-cell parallel-connected module demonstrate that reducing current imbalance leads to more uniform cell aging and improved module/pack-level degradation predictions. The analysis shows that current imbalance are affected by the electrical resistances. Terminal location significantly affects imbalance, with opposite-end terminal connections at intermediate branches minimizing the imbalance, and the pack circuit construction influences the accuracy of physics-based analysis at the pack scale. This framework enables design optimization of modules and packs through a fast and easy evaluation of pack performance and aging, and supports the development of aging-informed balancing strategies compatible with BMS implementation. Thereby, offering practical pathways to improve reliability and cycle life predictions in large-scale battery energy storage systems.

Ayalasomayajula, Surya Mitra [Oak Ridge National L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Radiation-Induced Actinide Species in Solution

Our fundamental understanding of actinide radiation-induced redox chemistry is crucial to nuclear fuel cycle development, due to the unavoidable exposure of these elements to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. Plutonium (Pu) and americium (Am) both possess multiple oxidation states, the careful manipulation of which are essential in the study and utilization of their rich chemistry, developing new nuclear technologies, and securing the long-term sustainability of nuclear power. However, knowledge in this area is far from complete. Consequently, we have studied the radiation-induced chemistry of both Pu and Am through a variety of techniques. Temperature-controlled electron pulse radiolysis has been used to study Am for the first time, determining the feasibility of Am redox reactions under used nuclear fuel reprocessing conditions, (e.g. nitric acid, non-ambient temperature). Additionally, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu redox chemistry due to radiolysis and disproportionation reactions in concentrated nitric acid solutions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗