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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Calibration Propagation and Validation of Model Discrepancy Across Experimental Settings.
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Cyber Threat Modeling and Validation: Port Scanning and Detection.
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Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Cumulonimbus Clouds. Part I: Description and Validation of Model
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Modeling and Validation of Flow and Heat Transfer Phenomena for Coal-Fired Boilers for Indirectly-Heated Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Cycles
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HE Validation Suite (HEVS): An automated approach to verify and validate HE models.
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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Multi-Probe Modeling Strategy and Validation
This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called "3$\times$2pt" analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation.
Modeling Sepsis: Establishment and Validation of a 72-Hour Swine Model of Penetrating Abdominal Trauma
Background/Objectives: Fecal peritonitis following penetrating abdominal trauma is a serious condition that often results in sepsis and organ failure. The aim of our study was to develop a novel conscious porcine model of sepsis and organ dysfunction caused by multiple penetrating injuries to the small and large intestines. Methods: Twelve female Yorkshire pigs (average weight 50.6 ± 6.5 kg) were divided into two groups: Penetrating Abdominal Trauma (PAT) (n = 8) and Control (n = 4). All surgical procedures were performed under anesthesia with adequate analgesia. In the PAT group, the small and large intestines were punctured, and feces mixed with saline were introduced into the abdominal cavity to induce peritonitis. The Control group received sham surgery with only saline solution. The animals were observed in a conscious state over a period of 72 h, vital parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken regularly. We adapted a pig-specific SOFA score and developed pig-specific SIRS criteria and NEWS2 score to assess organ function. The model was validated by independent investigators. Results: The survival rate in the PAT group was 75%, with an average survival time of 58.5 h, while all animals in the Control group survived to euthanasia. Monitoring showed pathophysiological changes, such as tachycardia, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia, indicative of sepsis and organ dysfunction. Blinded investigators independently confirmed the model’s validity. Conclusions: A new swine model of penetrating abdominal trauma and sepsis has been successfully developed that demonstrates significant physiological and immunologic changes comparable to human sepsis. This new model provides a realistic platform for future research into sepsis, its diagnostics, and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies.
Experimental Validation of Subsystem Models for a Novel Variable Displacement Hydraulic Motor
A novel, variable displacement, low-speed high-torque hydraulic motor is being developed that is expected to be highly efficient across a broad operating range. To ensure the final hardware achieves the expected performance, the models used in the development of the motor must be experimentally validated and revised, as necessary. The specific focus in this work is on mechanical energy loss models that were used to guide the design of a single-cylinder motor prototype and on experimental tests used for model validation. Ideally each model, whether friction loss in a piston/cylinder interface or energy loss due to leakage in a valve , would be individually validated by an independent test. This granular approach would remove any question of where the error lies and result in highly accurate models. However, many motor components have multiple forms of energy loss, creating difficulty in validating individual losses. Additionally, it is not physically realizable to divide many components into an individual model equivalent test. Testing the motor as a full assembly is possible, but pinpointing the source of discrepancies between the model and the hardware becomes difficult with dozens of models potentially being partially responsible. A compromise was found by separating the motor into functional component groups that are characterized by the type of loss and ability to test each subcomponent independently. By checking for correlation between test observations and model predictions, revisions could be implemented into the models. This allows future solutions to be more accurately predicted in the design phase to drive the design of better machines.
Verification and Validation of Model-Scale Turbine Performance and Control Strategies for the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine
To enable the fast growth of the floating offshore wind industry, simulation models must be validated with experimental data. Floating wind model-scale experiments in wind–wave facilities have been performed over the last two decades with varying levels of fidelity and limitations. However, the turbine controls in these experiments have considered only limited control strategies and implementations. To allow for control co-design, this research focuses on implementing and experimentally validating more advanced turbine control actions and strategies in a wind–wave basin for a 1:70-scale model of the International Energy Agency’s wind 15 MW reference wind turbine. The control strategies analyzed include torque control, collective pitch control, and transition region control (setpoint smoothing). Our experimental and numerical results include the effects of varying rotor speeds, blade pitches, and wind environments on the turbine thrust and torque. Numerical models from three different software tools are presented and compared to the experimental results. Their ability to effectively represent the aero-dynamic response of the wind turbine to the control actions is successfully validated. Finally, turbine controller tuning parameters based on the derivatives of thrust and torque are derived to allow for improved offshore wind turbine dynamics and to validate the ability of modeling tools to model the dynamics of floating offshore wind turbines with control co-design.
Guiding Principles for Geochemical/Thermodynamic Model Development and Validation in Nuclear Waste Disposal: A Close Examination of Recent Thermodynamic Models for H + —Nd 3+ —NO 3 - (—Oxalate) Systems
Development of a defensible source-term model (STM), usually a thermodynamical model for radionuclide solubility calculations, is critical to a performance assessment (PA) of a geologic repository for nuclear waste disposal. Such a model is generally subjected to rigorous regulatory scrutiny. In this article, we highlight key guiding principles for STM model development and validation in nuclear waste management. We illustrate these principles by closely examining three recently developed thermodynamic models with the Pitzer formulism for aqueous H + —Nd 3+ —NO 3 - (—oxalate) systems in a reverse alphabetical order of the authors: the XW model developed by Xiong and Wang, the OWC model developed by Oakes et al., and the GLC model developed by Guignot et al., among which the XW model deals with trace activity coefficients for Nd(III), while the OWC and GLC models are for concentrated Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The principles highlighted include the following: (1) Principle 1. Validation against independent experimental data: A model should be validated against experimental data or field observations that have not been used in the original model parameterization. We tested the XW model against multiple independent experimental data sets including electromotive force (EMF), solubility, water vapor, and water activity measurements. The results show that the XW model is accurate and valid for its intended use for predicting trace activity coefficients and therefore Nd solubility in repository environments. (2) Principle 2. Testing for relevant and sensitive variables: Solution pH is such a variable for an STM and easily acquirable. All three models are checked for their ability to predict pH conditions in Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The OWC model fails to provide a reasonable estimate for solution pH conditions, thus casting serious doubt on its validity for a source-term calculation. In contrast, both the XW and GLC models predict close-to-neutral pH values, in agreement with experimental measurements. (3) Principle 3. Honoring physical constraints: Upon close examination, it is found that the Nd(III)-NO 3 association schema in the OWC model suffers from two shortcomings. Firstly, its second stepwise stability constant for Nd(NO 3 ) 2+ (log K 2 ) is much higher than the first stepwise stability constant for NdNO 3 2+ (log K 1 ), thus violating the general rule of (log K 2 –log K 1 ) < 0, or $\frac{K1}{K2}$>1. Secondly, the OWC model predicts abnormally high activity coefficients for Nd(NO 3 ) 2 + (up to ~900) as the concentration increases. (4) Principle 4. Minimizing degrees of freedom for model fitting: The OWC model with nine fitted parameters is compared with the GLC model with five fitted parameters, as both models apply to the concentrated region for Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The latter appears superior to the former because the latter can fit osmotic coefficient data equally well with fewer model parameters. The work presented here thus illustrates the salient points of geochemical model development, selection, and validation in nuclear waste management.
ATF material model development and validation for priority fuel concepts
Development, implementation, and validation of material and behavior models for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts in the Bison fuel performance code began in 2014 in response to the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daichii nuclear power plant in March 2011. Early on the focus was on U 3 Si 2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding as part of a high impact problem through the Nuclear Energy and Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) program. Then, developments for Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, and SiC-SiC and Cr-coated zirconium-based claddings began based upon industry interests. In late fiscal year 2018 the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) took over further ATF work in Bison in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Discussions with the NRC identified their list of priority fuel and cladding concepts, which included Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 fuels, and Cr-coated zirconium-based and FeCrAl claddings. In particular, the NRC suggested that reports similar in form to NUREG/CR-7024 [1] that was developed for traditional LWR materials UO 2 and zirconium-based claddings (i.e., Zircaloy-4, M5®, ZIRLO) be created for the priority ATF concepts. The approach to ATF capability development in Bison since the beginning has been two-fold: (1) empirical correlations and (2) multiscale model development. Both approaches have uncertainty inherent to them. Uncertainty in empirical correlations is bounded by the experimental data upon which with the correlation was developed. Models developed through a multiscale approach have uncertainty associated with the lower length scale calculations and input parameters that must be propagated to the engineering scale model in Bison. In this report, the recommended models, their range of applicability (e.g., temperature, burnup), and associated uncertainty for the NRC priority fuel concepts Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 are presented in a manner similar to the aforementioned NUREG. In addition, the Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 models are validated to the Halden Reactor tess IFA-677.1 rods 1 and 5 and IFA-716.1 rod 1. For U 3 Si 2 the models are validated to the recent post-irradiation examination (PIE) data ATF-13 and ATF-15 rods that were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory. Finally, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is completed on a single rod for each fuel concept that takes into account the defined uncertainty in select models. The results of the UQ and SA analyses indicate that given the large uncertainty in some of the input ATF models that the uncertainty on the Bison predictions of fuel performance metrics of interest bound the available experimental data. Correlation coefficients are also reported that identified the uncertain inputs with the strongest correlation (positive or negative) with the outputs of interest. Fuel performance metrics investigated include fuel elongation, rod internal pressure, fuel centerline temperature, and fission gas release.
System Identification of a Heaving Point Absorber: Design of Experiment and Device Modeling
Empirically based modeling is an essential aspect of design for a wave energy converter. Empirically based models are used in structural, mechanical and control design processes, as well as for performance prediction. Both the design of experiments and methods used in system identification have a strong impact on the quality of the resulting model. This study considers the system identification and model validation process based on data collected from a wave tank test of a model-scale wave energy converter. Experimental design and data processing techniques based on general system identification procedures are discussed and compared with the practices often followed for wave tank testing. The general system identification processes are shown to have a number of advantages, including an increased signal-to-noise ratio, reduced experimental time and higher frequency resolution. The experimental wave tank data is used to produce multiple models using different formulations to represent the dynamics of the wave energy converter. These models are validated and their performance is compared against one another. While most models of wave energy converters use a formulation with surface elevation as an input, this study shows that a model using a hull pressure measurement to incorporate the wave excitation phenomenon has better accuracy.
Peridynamic modeling of cementitious materials for nuclear waste management
Radioactive and hazardous waste generated from fuel processing plants, nuclear reactors, and hospitals, requires effective management strategies. Cementitious materials are widely applied for these needs, serving as structural materials, reactive barriers, or waste forms. In these applications cracking poses a significant risk to performance, driven by inconsistent shrinkage of the components and the varying strength and permeability of their interfaces. Traditional modeling approaches face challenges in representing the complex fracture behavior of cementitious materials due to the reliance on spatial derivatives and difficulties with mesh generation. Here, to overcome these limitations, we employ peridynamics, a novel continuum mechanics formulation that uses integrals to describe mechanical equilibrium, avoiding discontinuities associated with traditional methods. Through incorporation of a bi-linear softening model and quasistatics, an experimentally validated model for Portland cement concrete samples was created. Mechanical parameters, including compressive strength and elastic modulus were validated and variation due to aggregate packing was evaluated. Additionally, sensitivity analysis of the peridynamic parameters to the bulk material properties was established. The results lay the groundwork for evaluating the impact of unique conditions of cementitious waste forms that can be assessed to improve the reliability of waste management strategies.
A model for oblique impacts on material surfaces
Many practical situations of material damage, wear, and erosion involve collisions between small particles and surfaces at inclined angles. While there are many well-validated models of normal incidence impact situations, elastic-plastic models for oblique incidence impact events are lacking. Here the finite element method is used to predict the normal and tangential coefficient of restitution in oblique impacts for hard, elastic spheres impacting an elastic-perfectly plastic material surface. The proposed model covers various impact angles ranging from 0° to 45°, within a limiting impact velocity below which the effects of heating are negligible. The normal coefficient of restitution follows power-laws with respect to normalized values of the impact velocity. Interestingly, the tangential coefficient of restitution follows a linear relationship with impact velocity. Together, these results provide a semi-empirical set of equations predicting oblique impact rebounds (both velocity and trajectory) for a wide range of conditions and material properties, with which experimental results can be rapidly interpreted. As a result, Laser-Induced Particle Impact Test (LIPIT) data are also presented for aluminum particles impacting aluminum substrates, at impact angles of 25° and 40°; the results compare favorably with the model and validate the general use of such models for the analysis of experimental data.
Total Dissolved Gas Prediction and Optimization in RIVERWARE
Management and operation of dams within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) provides the region with irrigation, hydropower production, flood control, navigation, and fish passage. These various system-wide demands can require unique dam operations that may result in both voluntary and involuntary spill, thereby increasing tailrace levels of total dissolved gas (TDG) which can be fatal to fish. Appropriately managing TDG levels within the context of the systematic demands requires a predictive framework robust enough to capture the operationally related effects on TDG levels. Development of the TDG predictive methodology herein attempts to capture the different modes of hydro operation, thereby making it a viable tool to be used in conjunction with a real-time scheduling model such as RiverWare. The end result of the effort will allow hydro operators to minimize system-wide TDG while meeting hydropower operational targets and constraints. The physical parameters such as spill and hydropower flow proportions, accompanied by the characteristics of the dam such as plant head levels and tailrace depths, are used to develop the empirically-based prediction model. In the broader study, two different models are developed a simplified and comprehensive model. The latter model incorporates more specific bubble physics parameters for the prediction of tailrace TDG levels. The former model is presented herein and utilizes an empirically based approach to predict downstream TDG levels based on local saturation depth, spillway and powerhouse flow proportions, and entrainment effects. Representative data collected from each of the hydro projects is used to calibrate and validate model performance and the accuracy of predicted TDG uptake. ORNL, in conjunction with IIHR - Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, carried out model adjustments to adequately capture TDG levels with respect to each plant while maintaining a generalized model configuration. Validation results indicate excellent model performance with coefficient of determination values exceeding 92% for all sites. This approach enables model extension to an increasingly wider array of hydropower plants, i.e., with the proper data input, TDG uptake can be calculated independent of actual physical component design. The TDG model is used as a module in the systematic optimization framework of RiverWare, a river and reservoir modeling tool used by federal agencies, public utility districts, and other dam owners and operators to forecast, schedule, and manage hydropower assets. The integration and testing of the TDG module within RiverWare, led by University of Colorado's Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES), will allow users to generate optimum system schedules based on the minimization of TDG. Optimization analysis and added value will be quantified as system wide reductions in TDG achieved while meeting existing hydropower constraints. Future work includes the development of a method to predict downstream reservoir forebay TDG levels as a function of upstream reservoir tailrace TDG values based on river hydrodynamics, hydro operations, and reservoir characteristics. Once implemented, a holistic model that predicts both TDG uptake and transport will give hydropower operators valuable insight into how system-wide environmental effects can be mitigated while simultaneously balancing stakeholder interests.