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NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation of Small Satellite Dynamics Simulation Modules using ASTERIA Flight Data

ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics) was a CubeSat space telescope that operated in low-Earth orbit, having been deployed from the International Space Station in 2017. The spacecraft has achieved sub-arcsecond pointing stability and millikelvin thermal stability over 20-minute observations. A key enabling feature of the ASTERIA mission is the low level of pointing error that has been demonstrated under ASTERIA’s fine pointing control mode. Prior to launch, the ASTERIA mission performed analysis and simulations to estimate the in-flight pointing performance. This analysis used reaction wheel models provided by JPL’s Small Satellite Dynamics Testbed (SSDT), which had performed Kistler table testing to characterize the jitter caused by the reaction wheels of the Blue Canyon Technologies XACT attitude control unit within ASTERIA. These models were subsequently incorporated into the SSDT simulation. The main source of jitter, the high-frequency attitude disturbance over the camera exposure time, on ASTERIA is the set of rotating reaction wheels that are used for maintaining fine pointing during observations. The reaction wheels impart disturbance forces and torques continuously that cause unwanted motion during imaging. Increased jitter consequently leads to blurring of the image. Therefore, to benefit all SmallSat missions devoted to photometric or spectroscopic astrophysics applications, an on-orbit flight data acquisition and jitter testing campaign was performed in an attempt to help validate the SSDT’s simulation models. This paper describes the process used to validate several simulation models and attempt to characterize the ASTERIA jitter by analyzing the size of the resulting spot size for the target stars as a function of wheel speed, having commanded four wheel speeds for each of three stars of known brightness. After summarizing the on-orbit observation and jitter level measurement process, this paper compares the results obtained from the flight operational environment to the corresponding set of simulation jitter levels. Though the flight data obtained during this experiment was not sufficient to validate the simulation’s jitter model, other models have been validated with flight data, including the magnetic field, orbit propagation, sun position, and long-duration orbit decay models, which may be used by all other projects that use the SSDT’s simulation to increase system capability knowledge.

Mohan, Swati↗

NASA NTRS1992

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Neal, Donald M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verify MesoNAM Performance

The AMU conducted an objective analysis of the MesoNAM forecasts compared to observed values from sensors at specified KSC/CCAFS wind towers by calculating the following statistics to verify the performance of the model: 1) Bias (mean difference), 2) Standard deviation of Bias, 3) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and 4) Hypothesis test for Bias = O. The 45 WS LWOs use the MesoNAM to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at KSC and CCAFS had not been measured objectively. The analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point to the observed values from the sensors on wind towers. The data were stratified by tower sensor, month and onshore/offshore wind direction based on the orientation of the coastline to each tower's location. The model's performance statistics were then calculated for each wind tower based on sensor height and model initialization time. The period of record for the data used in this task was based on the operational start of the current MesoNAM in mid-August 2006 and so the task began with the first full month of data, September 2006, through May 2010. The analysis of model performance indicated: a) The accuracy decreased as the forecast valid time from the model initialization increased, b) There was a diurnal signal in T with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, c) There was a diurnal signal in Td with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night, and d) The model parameters at each vertical level most closely matched the observed parameters at heights closest to those vertical levels. The AMU developed a GUI that consists of a multi-level drop-down menu written in JavaScript embedded within the HTML code. This tool allows the LWO to easily and efficiently navigate among the charts and spreadsheet files containing the model performance statistics. The objective statistics give the LWOs knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses and the GUI allows quick access to the data which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS1998

MAP stability, design, and analysis

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) is a follow-on to the Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) spacecraft. The design and analysis of the MAP attitude control system (ACS) have been refined since work previously reported. The full spacecraft and instrument flexible model was developed in NASTRAN, and the resulting flexible modes were plotted and reduced with the Modal Significance Analysis Package (MSAP). The reduced-order model was used to perform the linear stability analysis for each control mode, the results of which are presented in this paper. Although MAP is going to a relatively disturbance-free Lissajous orbit around the Earth-Sun L(2) Lagrange point, a detailed disturbance-torque analysis is required because there are only a small number of opportunities for momentum unloading each year. Environmental torques, including solar pressure at L(2), aerodynamic and gravity gradient during phasing-loop orbits, were calculated and simulated. Thruster plume impingement torques that could affect the performance of the thruster modes were estimated and simulated, and a simple model of fuel slosh was derived to model its effect on the motion of the spacecraft. In addition, a thruster mode linear impulse controller was developed to meet the accuracy requirements of the phasing loop burns. A dynamic attitude error limiter was added to improve the performance of the ACS during large attitude slews. The result of this analysis is a stable ACS subsystem that meets all of the mission's requirements.

Ericsson-Jackson, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Improved millimeter-wave mixer performance analysis at cryogenic temperatures

The results of a 600-GHz mixer performance analysis using an improved model for computing the Schottky diode capacitance-voltage (C-V) relationship are presented. The computed C-V data for a realistic submillimeter-waver mixer diode are given as a function of physical temperature and compared to the standard analytic expression based on a solution of Poisson's equation. Both C-V relationships are used to predict the performance of an ideally terminated 600 GHz mixer operating at 300, 140, 80, and 30 K. It is shown that the drift-diffusion model more accurately describes the mixer performance when the physical temperature is reduced below roughly 100 K.

Siegel, Peter H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Superthermal electron processes in the upper atmosphere of Uranus: Aurora and electroglow

Strong ultraviolet emissions from the upper atmosphere of Uranus suggest that both auroral and electroglow phenomena are of significant aeronomical consequences in the structure of the upper atmosphere. Combined modeling and data analysis were performed to determine the effect of electroglow and auroral phenomena on the global heat and atomic hydrogen budgets in the Uranus upper atmosphere. The results indicate that the auroral and electroglow heat sources are not adequate to explain the high exospheric temperature observed at Uranus, but that the atomic hydrogen supplied by these processes is more than sufficient to explain the observations. The various superthermal electron distributions modeled have significantly different efficiencies for the various processes such as UV emission, heating, ionization, and atomic hydrogen production, and produce quite different H2 band spectra. However, additional information on the UV spectra and global parameters is needed before modeling can be used to distinguish between the possible mechanisms for electroglow.

Waite, J. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Superthermal electron processes in the upper atmosphere of Uranus - Aurora and electroglow

Waite, J. H., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating Energy Impacts and Costs from PV Component Failures: Preprint

The PV Reliability Performance Model (PV-RPM) tool is used to simulate the cost and energy impacts of component faults and failures for a hypothetical PV system. This model, originally developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a new feature in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), which performs stochastic analysis sampling of probability distributions for faults, failures, and repairs. One PV system was created for this analysis to be representative of a portfolio of maintenance data maintained by Sandia National Laboratories. Fault, failure, and repair distributions from this system are varied from current baseline conditions to simulate different reliability and repair scenarios and resulting energy and cost impacts. Results highlight ways to express the uncertainty around PV system performance when considering the probabilistic behavior of components in the system, and ways the PV-RPM model can be used to explore different failure and repair scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Shuttle active thermal control system development testing. Volume 3: Modular radiator system test data correlation with thermal model

Results are presented of an analysis which compares the performance predictions of a thermal model of a multi-panel modular radiator system with thermal vacuum test data. Comparisons between measured and predicted individual panel outlet temperatures and pressure drops and system outlet temperatures have been made over the full range of heat loads, environments and plumbing arrangements expected for the shuttle radiators. Both two sided and one sided radiation have been included. The model predictions show excellent agreement with the test data for the maximum design conditions of high load and hot environment. Predictions under minimum design conditions of low load-cold environments indicate good agreement with the measured data, but evaluation of low load predictions should consider the possibility of parallel flow instabilities due to main system freezing. Performance predictions under intermediate conditions in which the majority of the flow is not in either the main or prime system are adequate although model improvements in this area may be desired. The primary modeling objective of providing an analytical technique for performance predictions of a multi-panel radiator system under the design conditions has been met.

Phillips, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation

Abstract The increasing complexity of Earth system models has inspired efforts to quantitatively assess model fidelity through rigorous comparison with best available measurements and observational data products. Earth system models exhibit a high degree of spread in predictions of land biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and hydrology, which are sensitive to forcing from other model components. Based on insights from prior land model evaluation studies and community workshops, the authors developed an open source model benchmarking software package that generates graphical diagnostics and scores model performance in support of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Employing a suite of in situ, remote sensing, and reanalysis data sets, the ILAMB package performs comprehensive model assessment across a wide range of land variables and generates a hierarchical set of web pages containing statistical analyses and figures designed to provide the user insights into strengths and weaknesses of multiple models or model versions. Described here is the benchmarking philosophy and mathematical methodology embodied in the most recent implementation of the ILAMB package. Comparison methods unique to a few specific data sets are presented, and guidelines for configuring an ILAMB analysis and interpreting resulting model performance scores are discussed. ILAMB is being adopted by modeling teams and centers during model development and for model intercomparison projects, and community engagement is sought for extending evaluation metrics and adding new observational data sets to the benchmarking framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Once-Through Steam Generator Model Analysis Using Python and Advanced Optimization Tools (Summer Internship Report)

This study focuses on the parametric analysis of design parameters for a once-through steam generator (OTSG) model, using python and advanced optimization tools to facilitate applications such as the flowing autoclave steam generator (FASG) test cases. Building on previous research involving another OTSG with a different design, this project aims to enhance our understanding of how steam generators (SGs) behave and how their outputs are influenced by changes in design. The reason for this design change is to allow for more precise modeling and optimization of SG performance, to provide a comparative analysis between the two designs, and to set up the model for integration with the FASG test case. The OTSG python-model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor-type small modular reactor system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system. By using advanced optimization tools, such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory, detailed design parametric studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid), respectively, of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10% relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis provides valuable insights into SG optimization and can be used for sensor placement optimization to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data in other tests.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GT2024-139262: Development of a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model for a High-Speed Centrifugal Compressor

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become widely used in the design and analysis of turbomachinery components such as centrifugal compressors. However, CFD is only a limited representation of experimental cases and struggles to model complex flows or lack model details to increase computation speed. The High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) was designed by United Technologies Research Center for NASA to investigate the difficulties behind improving centrifugal compressor technology and to provide an open case to the turbomachinery research community. The CFD technology seen in previous numerical models of the compressor have improved since then. In this study, a high-fidelity computational model for the vaneless configuration of HECC operating at its design point was developed and compared to an equivalent experimental case. This model incorporated GPU versions of mesh generation code WAND and solver code LEO from AeroDynamic Solutions, Inc. Blade sections extracted from the solid model formed the basis of the impeller mesh, while the remainder of the stage was modeled as ducts. Standard day aerodynamic conditions, design rotational speed, design mass flow rate, and inlet flow angles served as additional inputs. A mesh sensitivity study was performed prior to using the model for analysis. The accuracy of the model’s predictions of impeller and stage performance were assessed by comparing the total pressure ratio, total temperature rise ratio, and adiabatic efficiency to the corresponding parameters observed in the experimental case. Results showed a general overprediction of compressor performance by the model. Predictions were more accurate for the impeller performance compared to those for the full compressor stage. Spanwise analyses showed that the model tended to follow flow behavior patterns exhibited in the experiment. Beyond this study, this model was used to examine HECC aerodynamics and performance in research following thereafter.

centrifugal compressor↗

DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic excitations of the hybrid multiferroic (ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 ·D 2 O

We report a comprehensive inelastic neutron scattering study of the hybrid molecule-based multiferroic compound ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O in the zero-field incommensurate cycloidal phase and the high-field quasicollinear phase. The spontaneous electric polarization changes its direction concurrently with the field-induced magnetic transition, from mostly aligned with the crystallographic a axis to the c axis. To account for such a change in polarization direction, the underlying multiferroic mechanism was proposed to switch from the spin-current model induced via the inverse Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction to the p - d hybridization model. We perform a detailed analysis of the inelastic neutron data of ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O using linear spin-wave theory to quantify magnetic interaction strengths and investigate the possible impact of different multiferroic mechanisms on the magnetic couplings. Overall our result reveals that the spin dynamics of both multiferroic phases can be well described by a Heisenberg Hamiltonian with easy-plane anisotropy. We do not find notable differences between the optimal model parameters of the two phases. The hierarchy of exchange couplings and the balance among frustrated interactions remain the same between two phases, suggesting that magnetic interactions in ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O are much more robust than the electric polarization in response to delicate reorganizations of the electronic degrees of freedom in an applied magnetic field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Review and Integrated Approach to Modeling of Aging Utility Scale PV Systems

The growing deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the importance of techno-economic modeling operational photovoltaic (PV) systems for predicting energy yield, optimizing asset management, and informing financial decisions. Through a systematic review of literature and current industry practices, we review the different common modeling practices of a system's configuration and age, performance and degradation, operation and maintenance (O&M), while also focusing on specific considerations for repowering, revamping, and decommissioning. Building on the synthesis, we develop a structured framework for techno-economic modeling of operating PV systems that integrate performance and degradation analysis, a decommissioning and repowering cost model that estimates the system's end-of-life costs to reduce uncertainty quantifications and improve consistency across the sector. This research contributes to improved modeling methodologies and potentially to reduced financial performance requirements by providing practitioners with input resources and practical approaches to estimate performance, degradation, and costs associated with continued operation, revamping, repowering, or decommissioning decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

GPU code optimization using abstract kernel emulation and sensitivity analysis

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to GPU kernel optimization by focusing on identification of bottleneck resources and determining optimization parameters that can alleviate the bottleneck. Performance modeling for GPUs is done by abstract kernel emulation along with latency/gap modeling of resources. Sensitivity analysis with respect to resource latency/gap parameters is used to predict the bottleneck resource for a given kernel's execution. Here, the utility of the bottleneck analysis is demonstrated in two contexts: 1) Enhancing the OpenTuner auto-tuner with the new bottleneck-driven optimization strategy. Experimental results on all kernels from the Rodinia suite and GPU tensor contraction kernels from the NWChem computational chemistry suite demonstrate effectiveness. 2) Manual code optimization: two case studies illustrate the use of the bottleneck analysis to iteratively improve performance of code from state-of-the-art DSL code generators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗