Results for “Optimization Under Uncertainty” — Page 24

NASA NTRS1986

Design and evaluation of a failure detection and isolation algorithm for restructurable control systems

The use of a decentralized approach to failure detection and isolation for use in restructurable control systems is examined. This work has produced: (1) A method for evaluating fundamental limits to FDI performance; (2) Application using flight recorded data; (3) A working control element FDI system with maximal sensitivity to critical control element failures; (4) Extensive testing on realistic simulations; and (5) A detailed design methodology involving parameter optimization (with respect to model uncertainties) and sensitivity analyses. This project has concentrated on detection and isolation of generic control element failures since these failures frequently lead to emergency conditions and since knowledge of remaining control authority is essential for control system redesign. The failures are generic in the sense that no temporal failure signature information was assumed. Thus, various forms of functional failures are treated in a unified fashion. Such a treatment results in a robust FDI system (i.e., one that covers all failure modes) but sacrifices some performance when detailed failure signature information is known, useful, and employed properly. It was assumed throughout that all sensors are validated (i.e., contain only in-spec errors) and that only the first failure of a single control element needs to be detected and isolated. The FDI system which has been developed will handle a class of multiple failures.

Weiss, Jerold L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Geopotential models of the Earth from satellite tracking, altimeter and surface gravity observations: GEM-T3 and GEM-T3S

Improved models of the Earth's gravitational field have been developed from conventional tracking data and from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter and surface gravimetric data. This combination model represents a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half-wavelengths of 300 km and longer. Both models are complete to degree and order 50. The Goddard Earth Model-T3 (GEM-T3) provides more accurate computation of satellite orbital effects as well as giving superior geoidal representation from that achieved in any previous GEM. A description of the models, their development and an assessment of their accuracy is presented. The GEM-T3 model used altimeter data from previous satellite missions in estimating the orbits, geoid, and dynamic height fields. Other satellite tracking data are largely the same as was used to develop GEM-T2, but contain certain important improvements in data treatment and expanded laser tracking coverage. Over 1300 arcs of tracking data from 31 different satellites have been used in the solution. Reliable estimates of the model uncertainties via error calibration and optimal data weighting techniques are discussed.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

Blattnig, Steve R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Northern Hemisphere Surface Freeze-Thaw Product from Aquarius L-Band Radiometers

In the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal changes in surface freeze–thaw (FT) cycles are an important component of surface energy, hydrological and eco-biogeochemical processes that must be accurately monitored. This paper presents the weekly polar-gridded Aquarius passive L-band surface freeze–thaw product (FT-AP) distributed on the Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid version 2.0, above the parallel 50 N, with a spatial resolution of 36 km36 km. The FT-AP classification algorithm is based on a seasonal threshold approach using the normalized polarization ratio, references for frozen and thawed conditions and optimized thresholds. To evaluate the uncertainties of the product, we compared it with another satellite FT product also derived from passive microwave observations but at higher frequency: the resampled 37 GHz FT Earth Science Data Record (FTESDR). The assessment was carried out during the overlapping period between 2011 and 2014. Results show that 77.1% of their common grid cells have an agreement better than 80 %. Their differences vary with land cover type (tundra, forest and open land) and freezing and thawing periods. The best agreement is obtained during the thawing transition and over forest areas, with differences between product mean freeze or thaw onsets of under 0.4 weeks. Over tundra, FT-AP tends to detect freeze onset 2–5 weeks earlier than FT-ESDR, likely due to FT sensitivity to the different frequencies used. Analysis with mean surface air temperature time series from six in situ meteorological stations shows that the main discrepancies between FT-AP and FT-ESDR are related to false frozen retrievals in summer for some regions with FT-AP. The Aquarius product is distributed by the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at https://nsidc.org/data/aq3_ft/versions/5 with the DOI https://doi.org/10.5067/OV4R18NL3BQR.

Prince, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gust Load Alleviation Control and Gust Estimation for a High Aspect Ratio Wing Wind Tunnel Model

This paper presents the gust load alleviation (GLA) study of the aspect ratio 13.5 Common Research Model (CRM) wind-tunnel model. This study details the design of the GLA controller in preparation for wind-tunnel testing in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. An aeroservolastic (ASE) model was first reduced using a model reduction method that takes advantage of the sinusoidal steady-state response. Then, the reduced model was used to design an extended-state Kalman filter which estimates the states and the sinusoidal gust input. The GLA control was then derived using the optimal control solution to a multi-objective cost function. The results of the GLA controller indicate a 75.6% reduction in wing-root strain while maintaining robust stability margins. The final paper will include performance under sub-optimal conditions, e.g., sensor noise, uncertainty in gust frequency, etc..

Christopher Forte↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design.

UQ↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiobjective Modular Biorefinery Configuration under Uncertainty

With increasing interest in using biomass as a raw material for fuel, the development of biorefineries is an active area of research. However, increasing market competition, uncertainty, and environmental concerns are a few of the challenges that need to be addressed. In this work, mathematical optimization formulations are proposed to address these challenges simultaneously. A multiobjective deterministic optimization framework is proposed to address economic and environmental objectives. A two-stage stochastic optimization framework is proposed to account for uncertainties in material flow and product yields. To model the environmental objective, an environmental risk metric is proposed. Finally, as modularization is gaining popularity in the process industry due to its ability to save capital cost because of standardization and reduce time to market, a formulation for simultaneously achieving modular process design and biorefinery configuration is proposed. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

DOE OSTI2020

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning

Distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Robust Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on Reachability Analysis in an Optimal Control Formulation

This paper discusses an algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. Starting with an optimal control formulation, the optimization problem can be rewritten as a Hamilton- Jacobi-Bellman equation. This equation can be solved by level set methods. This approach has been applied on an aircraft example involving structural airframe damage. Monte Carlo validation tests have confirmed that this approach is successful in estimating the safe maneuvering envelope for damaged aircraft.

optimal control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

Distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline MPC controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning

Distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline MPC controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust Control of Wave Energy Converters Using Unstructured Uncertainty

In the design of ocean wave energy converters, proper control design is essential to the maximization of the power generation performance for the device. However, in realistic applications, this control design must be undertaken in the presence of model uncertainty. This paper considers the use of robust control theory to optimize the nominal performance for a wave energy converter in stochastic waves, subject to the constraint that the controller be stability-robust to unstructured uncertainties. We formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the primary objective is the maximization of power generation for the nominal system, and the competing objective is the norm of the uncertainty input/output channel. This optimal control problem is nonconvex, and we therefore propose an iterative algorithm that can be used to arrive at a local optimal solution. This iterative approach employs the concept of Iterative Convex Overbounding, in the context of the classical Method of Centers. Here, the methodology is demonstrated on a model of a single, buoy- type wave energy converter.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗